Steelhead vulnerability to climate change in the Pacific Northwest

Journal of Applied Ecology

Volumn 50, Issue 5, 2013, Pages 1093-1104

  Wade, Alisa A ^a,g   Beechie, Timothy J ^b   Fleishman, Erica ^c   Mantua, Nathan J ^d   Wu, Huan ^e,h   Kimball, John S ^e   Stoms, David M ^f   Stanford, Jack A ^e  

^a NATIONAL CENTER FOR ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS AND SYNTHESIS   (United States)

^b NORTHWEST FISHERIES SCIENCE CENTER   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^d SOUTHWEST FISHERIES SCIENCE CENTER   (United States)

^e UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA   (United States)

^f CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION   (United States)

^g UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA   (United States)

^h UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

Author keywords

Adaptation measures; Adaptive management; Climate change vulnerability; Exposure; Oncorhynchus mykiss; Pacific salmon; Risk assessment; Sensitivity

Indexed keywords

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONNECTIVITY; FLOODPLAIN; FLOW PATTERN; HABITAT LOSS; HABITAT RESTORATION; INTROGRESSION; LOW FLOW; OVERFISHING; POLLUTION EXPOSURE; POPULATION MIGRATION; REARING; RESTORATION ECOLOGY; RISK ASSESSMENT; SALMONID; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SPAWNING; STREAMFLOW; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; VULNERABILITY;

PACIFIC NORTHWEST;

ONCORHYNCHUS; ONCORHYNCHUS MYKISS;

EID: 84890860090     PISSN: 00218901     EISSN: 13652664     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12137     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Augerot, X. (2005) Atlas of Pacific Salmon: The First Map-Based Status Assessment of Salmon in the North Pacific. University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.
2. Battin, J., Wiley, M.W., Ruckelshaus, M.H., Palmer, R.N., Korb, E., Bartz, K.K. & Imaki, H. (2007) Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 104, 6720-6725.
3. Beamer, E.M. & Pess, G.R. (1999) Effects of peak flows on chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) spawning success in two Puget Sound River basins. Watershed Management to Protect Declining Species (eds R. Sakrison & P. Sturtevant ), pp. 67-70. American Water Resources Association, Middleburg, VA.
4. Beechie, T.J., Imaki, H., Greene, J., Wade, A.A., Wu, H., Pess, G.R. et al. (2012) Restoring salmon in a changing climate. River Research and Applications. doi: 10.1002/rra.2590.
5. Beer, W.N. & Anderson, J.J. (2010) Sensitivity of juvenile salmonid growth to future climate trends. River Research and Applications, 27, 663-669.
6. Bell, M.C. (1991) Fisheries Handbook of Engineering Requirements and Biological Criteria. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Fish Passage Development and Evaluation Program, North Pacific Division, Portland, OR.
7. Bjornn, T.C. & Reiser, D.W. (1991) Habitat requirements of salmonids in streams. Influences of Forest and Rangeland Management on Salmonid Fishes and their Habitats (ed. W.R. Meehan ), pp. 83-138. American Fisheries Society, Bethesda, MD.
8. Brannon, E.L., Powell, M.S., Quinn, T.P. & Talbot, A. (2004) Population structure of Columbia River Basin Chinook salmon and steelhead trout. Reviews in Fisheries Science, 12, 99-232.
9. Crozier, L. & Zabel, R.W. (2006) Climate impacts at multiple scales: evidence for differential population responses in juvenile Chinook salmon. Journal of Animal Ecology, 75, 1100-1109.
10. Crozier, L.G., Zabel, R.W. & Hamlett, A.F. (2008) Predicting differential effects of climate change at the population level with life-cycle models of spring Chinook salmon. Global Change Biology, 14, 236-249.
11. Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V. & Teng, H. (2012) Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Climate Dynamics, 38, 527-546.
12. Donley, E.E., Naiman, R.J. & Marineau, M.D. (2012) Strategic planning for instream flow restoration: a case study of potential climate change impacts in the central Columbia River basin. Global Change Biology, 18, 3071-3086.
13. Elsner, M.M., Cuo, L., Voisin, N., Deems, J.S., Hamlet, A.F., Vano, J.A., Mickelson, K.E.B., Lee, S.Y. & Lettenmaier, D.P. (2010) Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State. Climatic Change, 102, 225-260.
14. Ford, M.J., Cooney, T.D., McElhany, P., Sands, N., Weitkamp, L., Hard, J.J. et al. (2011) Status Review Update for Pacific Salmon and Steelhead Listed Under the Endangered Species Act: Pacific Northwest. National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NMFS-NWFSC-113, Seattle, WA.
15. Füssel, H.-M. (2007) Vulnerability: a generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research. Global Environmental Change, 17, 155-167.
16. Greene, C.M., Jensen, D., Pess, G.R. & Beamer, E.M. (2005) Effects of environmental conditions during stream, estuary, and ocean residency on Chinook salmon return rates in the Skagit River, WA. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 134, 1562-1581.
17. Harvey, B.C., Nakamoto, R.J. & White, J.L. (2006) Reduced streamflow lowers dry-season growth of rainbow trout in a small stream. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 135, 998-1005.
18. Hicks, M. (2000) Evaluating Standards for Protecting Aquatic Life in Washington's Surface Water Quality Standards. Draft Discussion Paper and Literature Summary. Revised 2002. Washington State Department of Ecology, Olympia, WA.
19. Holling, C.S. (1973) Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 4, 1-23.
20. International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) Climate change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fourth Assessment Report (eds R.K. Pachauri & A. Reisinger ), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1. Geneva, Switzerland.
21. Isaak, D.J., Wenger, S.J., Peterson, E.E., Ver Hoef, J.M., Hostetler, S., Luce, C.H. et al. (2011) The NorWeST stream temperature database and model for mapping thermal habitats and predicting vulnerability of aquatic species to climate change across the Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative Grant. Available at: www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NorWeST.shtml.
22. Isaak, D., Wollrab, S., Horan, D. & Chandler, G. (2012) Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the northwest U.S. from 1980-2009 and implications for salmonid fishes. Climatic Change, 113, 499-524.
23. Lee, C.G., Farrell, A.P., Lotto, A., MacNutt, M.J., Hinch, S.G. & Healey, M.C. (2003) The effect of temperature on swimming performance and oxygen consumption in adult sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and coho (O-kisutch) salmon stocks. Journal of Experimental Biology, 206, 3239-3251.
24. Liang, X., Lettenmaier, D.P., Wood, E.F. & Burges, S.J. (1994) A simple hydrologically based model of land-surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 99, 14415-14428.
25. Magnuson, J.J., Crowder, L.B. & Medvick, P.A. (1979) Temperature as an ecological resource. American Zoologist, 19, 331-343.
26. Mantua, N., Tohver, I. & Hamlet, A. (2010) Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State. Climatic Change, 102, 187-223.
27. May, C.L. & Lee, D.C. (2004) The relationship among in-channel sediment storage, pool depth, and summer survival of juvenile salmonids in Oregon Coast Range streams. North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 24, 761-774.
28. McCullough, D., Spalding, S., Sturdevant, D. & Hicks, M. (2001) Issue Paper 5: Summary of Technical Literature Examining the Physiological Effects of Temperature on Salmonids. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA-910-D-01-005, Region 10, Portland, OR.
29. McDaniels, T., Wilmot, S., Healey, M. & Hinch, S. (2010) Vulnerability of Fraser River sockeye salmon to climate change: a life cycle perspective using expert judgments. Journal of Environmental Management, 91, 2771-2780.
30. McElhany, P., Ruckelshaus, M.H., Ford, M.J., Wainwright, T.C. & Bjorkstedt, E.P. (2000) Viable Salmonid Populations and the Recovery of Evolutionarily Significant Units. National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NMFS-NWFSC-42, Seattle, WA.
31. Montgomery, D.R., Buffington, J.M., Peterson, N.P., Schuett-Hames, D. & Quinn, T.P. (1996) Stream-bed scour, egg burial depths, and the influence of salmonid spawning on bed surface mobility and embryo survival. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 53, 1061-1070.
32. National Research Center (NRC) (1996) Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest. National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
33. O'Neal, K. (2002) Effects of Global Warming on Trout and Salmon in U.S. Streams. Defenders of Wildlife, Washington, DC.
34. Orth, D.J. & Leonard, P.M. (1990) Comparison of discharge methods and habitat optimization for recommending instream flows to protect fish habitat. Regulated Rivers: Research & Management, 5, 129-138.
35. Planque, B., Fromentin, J.-M., Cury, P., Drinkwater, K.F., Jennings, S., Perry, R.I. & Kifani, S. (2010) How does fishing alter marine populations and ecosystems sensitivity to climate? Journal of Marine Systems, 79, 403-417.
36. Poff, N.L., Allan, J.D., Bain, M.B., Karr, J.R., Prestegaard, K.L., Richter, B.D., Sparks, R.E. & Stromberg, J.C. (1997) The natural flow regime. BioScience, 47, 769-784.
37. Pörtner, H.O. & Farrell, A.P. (2008) Physiology and climate change. Science, 322, 690-692.
38. Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission (PSMFC) (2009) StreamNet generalized fish distribution. Available at: http://www.streamnet.org/mapping_apps.cfm. Accessed 4 March 2012.
39. Quinn, T.P. & Adams, D.J. (1996) Environmental changes affecting the migratory timing of American shad and sockeye salmon. Ecology, 77, 1151-1162.
40. Rahel, F.J., Bierwagen, B. & Taniguchi, Y. (2008) Managing aquatic species of conservation concern in the face of climate change and invasive species. Conservation Biology, 22, 551-561.
41. Rand, P.S., Hinch, S.G., Morrison, J., Foreman, M.G.G., MacNutt, M.J., Macdonald, J.S., Healey, M.C., Farrell, A.P. & Higgs, D.A. (2006) Effects of river discharge, temperature, and future climates on energetics and mortality of adult migrating Fraser River Sockeye salmon. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 135, 655-667.
42. Reed, T.E., Waples, R.S., Schindler, D.E., Hard, J.J. & Kinnison, M.T. (2010) Phenotypic plasticity and population viability: the importance of environmental predictability. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 277, 3391-3400.
43. Richter, A. & Kolmes, S.A. (2005) Maximum temperature limits for Chinook, Coho, and Chum Salmon and Steelhead Trout in the Pacific Northwest. Reviews in Fisheries Science, 13, 23-49.
44. Rieman, B.E., Isaak, D., Adams, S., Horan, D., Nagel, D., Luce, C. & Myers, D. (2007) Anticipated climate warming effects on bull trout habitats and populations across the interior Columbia River basin. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 136, 1552-1565.
45. Roni, P., Hanson, K. & Beechie, T. (2008) Global review of the physical and biological effectiveness of stream habitat rehabilitation techniques. North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 28, 856-890.
46. Roni, P., Beechie, T.J., Bilby, R.E., Leonetti, F.E., Pollock, M.M. & Pess, G.R. (2002) A review of stream restoration techniques and a hierarchical strategy for prioritizing restoration in Pacific Northwest watersheds. North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 22, 1-20.
47. Schindler, D.E., Hilborn, R., Chasco, B., Boatright, C.P., Quinn, T.P., Rogers, L.A. & Webster, M.S. (2010) Population diversity and the portfolio effect in an exploited species. Nature, 465, 609-612.
48. Schlaepfer, M.A., Runge, M.C. & Sherman, P.W. (2002) Ecological and evolutionary traps. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 17, 474-480.
49. Seiler, D., Neuhauser, S. & Kishimoto, L. (2003) Annual Report: 2002 Skagit River Wild 0+ Chinook Production Evaluation. State of Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Seattle, WA.
50. Stanford, J.A., Ward, J.V., Liss, W.J., Frissell, C.A., Williams, R.N., Lichatowich, J.A. & Coutant, C.C. (1996) A general protocol for restoration of regulated rivers. Regulated Rivers: Research & Management, 12, 391-413.
51. Waples, R.S., Beechie, T. & Pess, G.R. (2009) Evolutionary history, habitat disturbance regimes, and anthropogenic changes: what do these mean for resilience of Pacific salmon populations? Ecology and Society, 14. Available at: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art3/
52. Waples, R.S., Pess, G.R. & Beechie, T. (2008) Evolutionary history of Pacific salmon in dynamic environments. Evolutionary Applications, 1, 189-206.
53. Wenger, S.J., Luce, C.H., Hamlet, A.F., Isaak, D.J. & Neville, H.M. (2010) Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics. Water Resources Research, 46, W09513.
54. Wenger, S.J., Isaak, D.J., Luce, C.H., Neville, H.M., Fausch, K.D., Dunham, J.B. et al. (2011) Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 108, 14175-14180.
55. Williams, S.E., Shoo, L.P., Isaac, J.L., Hoffmann, A.A. & Langham, G. (2008) Towards an integrated framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change. PLoS Biology, 6, e325.
56. Wilson, K., Pressey, R.L., Newton, A., Burgman, M., Possingham, H. & Weston, C. (2005) Measuring and incorporating vulnerability into conservation planning. Environmental Management, 35, 527-543.
57. Wu, H., Kimball, J.S., Mantua, N. & Stanford, J. (2011) Automated upscaling of river networks for macroscale hydrological modeling. Water Resources Research, 47, W03517.
58. Wu, H., Kimball, J.S., Elsner, M., Mantua, N.J., Adler, R.F. & Stanford, J. (2012) Projected climate change impacts on the hydrology and temperature of Pacific Northwest rivers. Water Resources Research, 48. DOI: 10.1029/2012WR012082.
59. Zeug, S.C., Albertson, L.K., Lenihan, H., Hardy, J. & Cardinale, B. (2011) Predictors of Chinook salmon extirpation in California's Central Valley. Fisheries Management and Ecology, 18, 61-71.