Exploring qualitative regional climate projections: A case study for Nauru

Climate Research

Volumn 58, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 165-182

  Brown, Jaclyn N ^a   Brown, Josephine R ^b   Langlais, Clothilde ^a   Colman, Rob ^b   Risbey, James S ^a   Murphy, Bradley F ^b   Moise, Aurel ^b   Gupta, Alex Sen ^c   Smith, Ian ^b   Wilson, Louise ^a   Narsey, Sugata ^a   Grose, Michael ^a   Wheeler, Matthew C ^b  

^a CSIRO   (Australia)

^b BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

Author keywords

Climate projections; ENSO; Islands; SPCZ; Tropical Pacific

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE PROJECTION; ENSO; ISLANDS; SPCZ; TROPICAL PACIFIC;

CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ADAPTATION; CLIMATE MODELING; CONVERGENCE; COUPLING; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; MONSOON; REGIONAL CLIMATE; WARM POOL;

NAURU; PACIFIC ISLANDS; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (TROPICAL);

EID: 84890508342     PISSN: 0936577X     EISSN: 16161572     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/cr01190     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Adler RF, Huffman GJ, Chang A, Ferraro R and others (2003) The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1997-Present). J Hydrometeorol 4: 1147-1167
2. ABoM, CSIRO (Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) (2011a) Climate change in the Pacific: scientific assessment and new research, Vol 1. Regional overview, available at www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/ Climate-Change-in-the-Pacific.-Scientific-Assessment-and-New-Research-Volume-1. -Regional-Overview.pdf
3. ABoM, CSIRO (Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) (2011b) Climate change in the Pacific: scientific assessment and new research, Vol 2. Country reports, available at www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/wpcontent/uploads/2013/09/ Volume-2-country-reports.pdf
4. Bell JD, Ganachaud A, Gehrke PC, Griffiths SP and others (2013) Mixed responses of tropical Pacific fisheries and aquaculture to climate change. Nature Clim Change, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1838
5. Brown JN, Langlais C, Maes C (2013a) Zonal structure and variability of the Western Pacific dynamic warm pool edge in CMIP5. Clim Dyn, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1931-5
6. Brown JN, Sen Gupta A, Brown JR, Muir LC and others (2013b) Implications of CMIP3 model biases and uncertainties for climate projections in the western Tropical Pacific. Clim Change 119: 147-161
7. Brown JR, Power SB, Delage FP, Colman RA and others (2011) Evaluation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone in IPCC AR4 climate model simulations of the 20th century. J Clim 24: 1565-1582
8. Brown JR, Moise AF, Coleman RA (2013) The South Pacific Convergence Zone in CMIP5 simulations of historical and future climate. Clim Dyn 41:2179-2197
9. CaiW, Lengaigne M, Borlace C, Collins M and others (2012) More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming. Nature 488: 365-369. www.nature.com/nature/journal/v488/n7411/abs/nature 11358.html#supplementary-information
10. Catto JL, Nicholls N, Jakob C (2012) North Australian sea surface temperatures and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the CMIP5 Models. J Clim 25: 6375-6382
11. Chou C, Chen CA, Tan PH, Chen KT (2012) Mechanisms for global warming impacts on precipitation frequency and intensity. J Clim 25: 3291-3306
12. Chou C, Neelin JD, Chen CA, Tu JY (2009) Evaluating the "rich-get-richer" mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming. J Clim 22: 1982-2005
13. Christensen JH, Hewitson BC, Busuioc A, Chen A and others (2007) Regional Climate Projections. Regional Climate Projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z and others (eds) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, and New York, NY
14. Dai A (2006) Precipitation characteristics in eighteen Coupled Climate Models. J Clim 19: 4605-4630
15. DiNezio PN, Clement AC, Vecchi G (2010) Reconciling differing views of Tropical Pacific climate change. EOS Trans 91(16): 141-142
16. Ganachaud A, Sen Gupta A, Brown JN, Evans K, Maes C, Muir LC, Graham FS (2013) Projected changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean of importance to tuna fisheries. Clim Change 119:163-179
17. Grose MR, Brown JN, Narsy S, Brown JR and others (in press) Assessment of the CMIP5 global climate model simulations of the western tropical Pacific climate system and comparison to CMIP3. Int J Climatol
18. Guilyardi E, Bellenger H, Collins M, Ferrett S, Cai W, Wittenburg A (2012) A first look at ENSO in CMIP5. CLIVAR Exchanges 17: 29-32
19. Held IM, Soden BJ (2006) Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J Clim 19:5686-5699
20. Holloway CE, Neelin JD (2010) Temporal relations of column water vapor and tropical precipitation. J Atmos Sci 67: 1091-1105
21. Hoyos CD, Webster PJ (2011) Evolution and modulation of tropical heating from the last glacial maximum through the twenty-first century. Clim Dyn 38: 1501-1519
22. Hung MP, Lin JL Wang W, Kim D, Shinoda T, Weaver SJ (2013) MJO and convectively coupled equatorial waves simulated by CMIP5 climate models. J Clim 26:6185-6214
23. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2012) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Field CB, Barros V, Stockeret TF, Qin D and others (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, and New York, NY
24. Johnson NJ, Xie SP (2010) Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection. Nature Geosci 3: 842-843
25. Jourdain NC, Sen Gupta A, Taschetto AS, Ummenhofer CC, Moise AF, Ashok K (2013) The Indo-Australian monsoon and its relationship to ENSO and IOD in reanalysis data and the CMIP3/CMIP5 simulations. Clim Dyn 41: 3073-3102
26. Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Hegerl GC (2007) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. J Clim 20: 1419-1444
27. Kim ST, Yu JY (2012) The two types of ENSO in CMIP5 models. Geophys Res Lett 39: L11704, doi: 10.1029/2012GL 052006
28. Lin JL, Kiladis GN, Mapes BE, Weickmann KM and others (2006) Tropical intraseasonal variability in 14 IPCC AR4 climate models. Part I: convective signals. J Clim 19: 2665-2690
29. Lintner BR, Holloway CE, Neelin JD (2011) Column water vapor statistics and their relationship to deep convection, vertical and horizontal circulation, and moisture structure at Nauru. J Clim 24: 5454-5466
30. Liu SC, Fu C, Shiu CJ, Chen JP, Wu F (2009) Temperature dependence of global precipitation extremes. Geophys Res Lett 36: L17702, doi: 10.1029/2009GL040218
31. Liu P, Li T, Wang B, Zhang M and others (2012) MJO change with A1B global warming estimated by the 40-km ECHAM5. Clim Dyn 41: 1009-1023
32. Mastrandrea MD, Field CB, Stocker TF, Edenhofer O and others (2010) Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), available at www.ipcc.ch
33. Matthews AJ, Li HYY (2005) Modulation of station rainfall over the western Pacific by the Madden-Julian oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 32: L14827, doi: 10.1029/2005GL 023595
34. McPhaden MJ, Lee T, McClurg D (2011) El Niño and its relationship to changing background conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 38: L15709, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048275
35. Nauru (1999) Republic of Nauru Response, 1st National Communication. UNFCoCC National Committee on Climate Change
36. Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK and others (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nine teenth century. J Geophys Res 108: 4407, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670
37. Risbey JS, Lamb PJ, Miller RL, Morgan MC, Roe GH (2002) Exploring the structure of regional climate scenarios by combining synoptic and dynamics guidance and GCM output. J Clim 15: 1036-1050
38. Risbey JS, O'Kane TJ (2011) Sources of knowledge and ignorance in climate research. Clim Change 108: 755-773
39. Seager R, Naik N (2010) Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J Clim 23: 4651-4668
40. Sillman J, Kharin VV, Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Bronaugh D (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble. Part 1: model evaluation in the present climate. J Geophys Res Atmos 118: 1716-1733
41. Simmons A, Uppala S, Dee D, Kobayashi S (2006) ERAInterim: New ECMWF reanalysis products from 1989 onwards. ECMWF Newsl 110: 26-35
42. Smith I, Moise AF, Katzfey J, Nguyen K, Colman R (2013) Regional-scale rainfall projections: simulations for the New Guinea region using the CCAM model. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:1271-1280
43. Smith IN, Moise AF, Colman RA (2012) Large scale circulation features in the tropical western Pacific and their representation in climate models. J Geophys Res 117: D04109, doi: 10.1029/2011JD016667
44. Sud YC, Walker GK, Lau KM (1999) Mechanisms regulating sea-surface temperatures and deep convection in the tropics. Geophys Res Lett 26: 1019-1022
45. Sun Y, Solomon S, Dai A, Portmann RW (2007) How often will it rain? J Clim 20: 4801-4818
46. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93: 485-498
47. Vecchi GA, Wittenberg AT (2010) El Niño and our future climate: Where do we stand? WIREs Clim Change 1: 260-270
48. Vincent EM, Lengaigne M, Menkes CE, Jourdain NC, Marchesiello P, Madec G (2011) Interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis. Clim Dyn 36: 1881-1896
49. Wang B, Ding Q (2008) Global monsoon: dominant mode of annual variation in the tropics. Dyn Atmos Oceans 44: 165-183
50. Widlansky MJ, Timmermann A, Stein K, McGregor S and others (2013) Changes in South Pacific rainfall bands in a warming climate. Nature Clim Change 3: 417-423
51. Xie P, Arkin PA (1997) Global precipitation: a 17 year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, numerical model outputs. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78: 2539-2558
52. Zhang W, Jin FF (2012) Improvements in the CMIP5 simulations of ENSO-SSTA meridional width. Geophys Res Lett 39: L23704, doi:10.1029/2012GL053588