Leader survival and natural disasters

British Journal of Political Science

Volumn 43, Issue 4, 2013, Pages 821-843

  Flores, Alejandro Quiroz ^a,b   Smith, Alastair ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ESSEX   (United Kingdom)

^b NEW YORK UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84888385470     PISSN: 00071234     EISSN: 14692112     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0007123412000609     Document Type: Article

References (116)

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15. see Richard Stuart Olson and Vincent T. Gawronski, 'From Disaster Event to Political Crisis: A "5C1A" Framework for Analysis', International Studies Perspectives, 11 (2010), 205-21.
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20. Anbarci, Escaleras and Register, 'Earthquake Fatalities', pp. 1907-33
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45. Chen, Are Poor Voters Easier to Buy Off with Money?
46. Chen, When Do Government Benefits Influence Voters' Behavior?
47. Cohen and Werker, 'The Political Economy of "Natural" Disasters', pp. 795-819
48. Raschky and Schwindt, Aid Natural Disasters and the Samaritan's Dilemma.
49. Michael H. Glantz, 'Nine Fallacies of Natural Disaster: The Case of the Sahel', Climatic Change, 1. (1977), 69-84
50. Edmond J. Keller, 'Drought War and the Politics of Famine in Ethiopia and Eritrea', Journal of Modern African Studies, 30 (1992), 609-24.
51. Kyle Beardsley and Brian McQuinn, 'Rebel Groups as Predatory Organizations: The Political Effects of the 2004 Tsunami in Indonesia and Sri Lanka', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 53 (2009), 624-45
52. Dawn Brancati, 'Political Aftershocks: The Impact of Earthquakes on Intrastate Conflict', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 51 (2007), 715-43
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59. Alastair Smith, 'The Perils of Unearned Income', Journal of Politics, 70 (2008), 780-93.
60. Chen, Are Poor Voters Easier to Buy Off with Money?
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70. The database is available at http://www.emdat.be/.
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72. Anbarci, Escaleras and Register, 'Earthquake Fatalities', pp. 1907-33
73. Kahn, 'The Death Toll from Natural Disasters', pp. 271-84
74. Escaleras, Anbarci and Register, 'Public Sector Corruption and Major Earthquakes: A Potentially Deadly Interaction', p. 209-30
75. Keefer, Neumayer and Plümper, Earthquake Propensity and the Politics of Mortality Prevention.
76. Chen, Are Poor Voters Easier to Buy Off with Money?
77. Chen, When Do Government Benefits Influence Voters' Behavior?
78. Healy and Neil Malhotra, 'Random Events Economic Losses and Retrospective Voting', pp. 193-208.
79. Available at http://www.databanksinternational.com/53.html.
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85. Monty G. Marshall, 2011 Polity IV Project, Dataset User's Manual, available at http://wwwsystemicpeaceorg/inscr/p4manualv2010pdf.
86. In our ideal specification, we would like to use population density for each disaster. Since we explore all types of disasters by country-year, we have not found the general equivalent of an earthquake's epicenter; national population density is not a feasible alternative because there is high variance in population density within countries. However, our ongoing study of the effects of earthquakes addresses this issue.
87. In order to control for a potential reporting bias, we performed the same analysis when there was at least one fatal disaster. The results are essentially the same. It is important to note that most empirical analyses of disasters use a linear model to explore disaster-related casualties. Nevertheless, to address potential concerns about the distribution of casualties, we estimated the same specifications using count models; our analyses using these models also produce similar results.
88. The regions are given by the Correlates of War Project: Western Hemisphere, Europe, Africa, Middle East, Asia, and Oceania.
89. Sen, 'Public Action to Remedy Hunger', p. 324-36
90. Sen, Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation
91. Besley and Burgess, 'The Political Economy of Government Responsiveness', pp. 1415-51
92. Anbarci, Escaleras and Register, 'Earthquake Fatalities', pp. 1907-33
93. Kahn, 'The Death Toll from Natural Disasters', pp. 271-84
94. Escaleras, Anbarci and Register, 'Public Sector Corruption and Major Earthquakes', pp. 209-30
95. Stromberg, 'Natural Disasters, Economic Development, and Humanitarian Aid', pp. 199-222
96. Toya and Skidmore, 'Economic Development and the Impacts of Natural Disasters', pp. 20-5
97. Cohen and Werker, 'The Political Economy of "Natural" Disasters', pp. 795-819
98. Raschky, 'Institutions and the Losses from Natural Disasters', pp. 627-34
99. Cavallo and Noy, The Economics of Natural Disasters
100. Keefer, Neumayer and Plümper, Earthquake Propensity and the Politics of Mortality Prevention.
101. Neal Beck and Jonathan Katz, 'Throwing Out the Baby with the Bath Water: A Comment on Green, Kim, and Yoon', International Organization, 55 (2001), 487-95
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106. As a robustness check, we included variables indicating the occurrence and intensity of civil war (UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset: Nils Petter Gleditsch, Peter Wallensteen, Mikael Eriksson, Margareta Sollenberg and Hovard Strand, 'Armed Conflict 1946-2001: A New Dataset', Journal of Peace Research, 39 (2002), 615-37. The results remained similar.
107. Abney and Hill, 'Natural Disasters as a Political Variable', pp. 974-81
108. Chen, Are Poor Voters Easier to Buy Off with Money?
109. Chen, When Do Government Benefits Influence Voters' Behavior?
110. Healy and Neil Malhotra, 'Random Events Economic Losses and Retrospective Voting', pp. 193-208
111. Reeves, 'Political Disaster Unilateral Powers Electoral Incentives and Presidential Disaster Declarations', pp. 1-10.
112. Olson and Gawronski, 'From Disaster Event to Political Crisis: A "5C+A" Framework for Analysis', pp. 205-21.
113. See Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Bradford S. Jones, Event History Modeling. A Guide for Social Scientists (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004), chapter 8 for detail.
114. Amanda Licht, Change Comes With Time: Interpreting Non-proportional Hazards in Event History Analyses (Iowa City: Working Paper, Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, 2008).
115. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson and James D. Morrow, The Logic of Political Survival
116. Bruce Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, 'Leader Survival Revolutions and the Nature of Government Finance', American Journal of Political Science, 54 (2010), 936-50.