A Data-Driven Mathematical Model of CA-MRSA Transmission among Age Groups: Evaluating the Effect of Control Interventions

PLoS Computational Biology

Volumn 9, Issue 11, 2013, Pages

  Wang, Xiaoxia ^a   Panchanathan, Sarada ^a,b   Chowell, Gerardo ^a,c  

^a ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b Maricopa Integrated Health System   (United States)

^c NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BACTERIA; MARKOV PROCESSES; MONTE CARLO METHODS; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

AGE GROUPS; COMPARTMENTAL MODELLING; DATA DRIVEN; INTERVENTION STRATEGY; METHICILLIN-RESISTANT STAPHYLOCOCCUS AUREUS; MONTE CARLO MARKOV CHAIN TECHNIQUES; POPULATION LEVELS; SKIN TISSUE; SOFT TISSUE INFECTIONS; TIME-SERIES DATA;

DISEASE CONTROL;

PSEUDOMONIC ACID;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGE DISTRIBUTION; ARTICLE; AWARENESS; BACTERIAL COLONIZATION; BACTERIAL TRANSMISSION; CHILD; CONTROLLED STUDY; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA; HUMAN; INFANT; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; METHICILLIN RESISTANT STAPHYLOCOCCUS AUREUS; METHICILLIN RESISTANT STAPHYLOCOCCUS AUREUS INFECTION; MOLECULAR DYNAMICS; MONTE CARLO METHOD; PRESCHOOL CHILD; PROBABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; SCHOOL CHILD; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SKIN INFECTION; SOCIOECONOMICS; SOFT TISSUE INFECTION; VALIDATION PROCESS;

METHICILLIN RESISTANT STAPHYLOCOCCUS AUREUS;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; COMMUNITY-ACQUIRED INFECTIONS; HUMANS; INFANT; METHICILLIN-RESISTANT STAPHYLOCOCCUS AUREUS; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS; SOFT TISSUE INFECTIONS; STAPHYLOCOCCAL INFECTIONS; STAPHYLOCOCCAL SKIN INFECTIONS;

EID: 84888244143     PISSN: 1553734X     EISSN: 15537358     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003328     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Lowy FD, (1998) Staphylococcus aureus infections. New England Journal of Medicine 339: 520-532.
2. Jevons MP, (1961) "celbenin"-resistant staphylococci. British Medical Journal 1: 124-125.
3. Purcell K, Fergie JE, (2002) Exponential increase in community-acquired methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus infections in south texas children. The Pediatric infectious disease journal 21: 988-989.
4. Dukic VM, Lauderdale DS, Wilder J, Daum RS, David MZ, (2013) Epidemics of community-associated methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus in the united states: A meta-analysis. PloS one 8: e52722.
5. Bratu S, Landman D, Gupta J, Trehan M, Panwar M, et al. (2006) A population-based study examining the emergence of community-associated methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus usa300 in new york city. Annals of clinical microbiology and antimicrobials 5: 29.
6. Pallin DJ, Egan DJ, Pelletier AJ, Espinola JA, Hooper DC, et al. (2008) Increased us emergency department visits for skin and soft tissue infections, and changes in antibiotic choices, during the emergence of community-associated methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus. Annals of emergency medicine 51: 291-298.
7. Popovich KJ, Hota B, Aroutcheva A, Kurien L, Patel J, et al. (2013) Community-associated methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus colonization burden in hiv-infected patients. Clinical Infectious Diseases 56: 1067-74.
8. Naimi TS, LeDell KH, Como-Sabetti K, Borchardt SM, Boxrud DJ, et al. (2003) Comparison of community-and health care-associated methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus infection. JAMA: the journal of the American Medical Association 290: 2976-2984.
9. David MZ, Daum RS, (2010) Community-associated methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus: epidemiology and clinical consequences of an emerging epidemic. Clinical Microbiology Reviews 23: 616-687.
10. Doebbeling BN, Reagan DR, Pfaller MA, Houston AK, Hollis RJ, et al. (1994) Long-term efficacy of intranasal mupirocin ointment: a prospective cohort study of staphylococcus aureus carriage. Archives of internal medicine 154: 1505.
11. Perl TM, Cullen JJ, Wenzel RP, Zimmerman MB, Pfaller MA, et al. (2002) Intranasal mupirocin to prevent postoperative staphylococcus aureus infections. New England Journal of Medicine 346: 1871-1877.
12. Van Rijen M, (2009) Mupirocin ointment for preventing staphylococcus aureus infections in nasal carriers. Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine 2: 129-129.
13. D'Agata E, Webb GF, Horn MA, Moellering RC, Ruan S, (2009) Modeling the invasion of community-acquired methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus into hospitals. Clinical Infectious Diseases 48: 274-284.
14. DAgata EM, Webb GF, Pressley J, (2010) Rapid emergence of co-colonization with community-acquired and hospital-acquired methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus strains in the hospital setting. Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena 5: 76-93.
15. Lee BY, McGlone SM, Wong KF, Yilmaz SL, Avery TR, et al. (2011) Modeling the spread of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus (mrsa) outbreaks throughout the hospitals in orange county, california. Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology 32: 562.
16. Chamchod F, Ruan S, (2012) Modeling methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus in hospitals: Transmission dynamics, antibiotic usage and its history. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 9: 25.
17. Chamchod F, Ruan S, (2012) Modeling the spread of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus in nursing homes for elderly. PloS One 7: e29757.
18. Wassenberg MW, De Wit GA, Van Hout BA, Bonten MJ, (2010) Quantifying cost-effectiveness of controlling nosocomial spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria: the case of mrsa. PloS one 5: e11562.
19. Kouyos R, Klein E, Grenfell B, (2013) Hospital-community interactions foster coexistence between methicillin-resistant strains of staphylococcus aureus. PLoS pathogens 9: e1003134.
20. Milstone AM, Goldner BW, Ross T, Shepard JW, Carroll KC, et al. (2011) Methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus colonization and risk of subsequent infection in critically ill children: importance of preventing nosocomial methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus transmission. Clinical infectious diseases 53: 853-859.
21. Macdonald G, (1961) Epidemiologic models in studies of vetor-borne diseases: The re dyer lecture. Public health reports 76: 753.
22. Anderson R, May R (1991) Infectious diseases of humans. Oxford University Press.
23. Diekmann O, Heesterbeek J (2000) Mathematical epidemiology of infectious diseases: model building, analysis and interpretation. John Wiley & Sons.
24. Panchanathan SS, Petitti DB, Fridsma DB, (2010) The development and validation of a simulation tool for health policy decision making. Journal of Biomedical Informatics 43: 602-607.
25. Mossong J, Hens N, Jit M, Beutels P, Auranen K, et al. (2008) Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS medicine 5: e74.
26. Medlock J, Galvani AP, (2009) Optimizing influenza vaccine distribution. Science 325: 1705-1708.
27. Vaska V, Nimmo G, Jones M, Grimwood K, Paterson D, (2012) Increases in australian cutaneous abscess hospitalisations: 1999-2008. European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases 31: 93-96.
28. Fridkin SK, Hageman JC, Morrison M, Sanza LT, Como-Sabetti K, et al. (2005) Methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus disease in three communities. New England Journal of Medicine 352: 1436-1444.
29. Haario H, Laine M, Mira A, Saksman E, (2006) Dram: efficient adaptive mcmc. Statistics and Computing 16: 339-354.
30. Calvetti D, Somersalo E (2007) Introduction to bayesian scientific computing: ten lectures on subjective computing. Springer.
31. Blower S, Dowlatabadi H, (1994) Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: an hiv model, as an example. International Statistical Review/Revue Internationale de Statistique 62: 229-243.
32. Iman R, Helton J, Campbell J, (1981) An approach to sensitivity analysis of computer-models. 1. introduction, input variable selection and preliminary variable assessment. Journal of quality technology 13: 174-183.
33. McKay M, Beckman R, Conover W, (1979) A comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code. Technometrics 21: 239-245.
34. Conover W (1980) Practical nonparametric statistics. New York: J Wiley & Sons.
35. Diekmann O, Dietz K, Heesterbeek J, (1991) The basic reproduction ratio for sexually transmitted diseases: I. theoretical considerations. Mathematical biosciences 107: 325-339.
36. Van den Driessche P, Watmough J, (2002) Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Mathematical biosciences 180: 29-48.
37. Cooper B, Medley G, Stone S, Kibbler C, Cookson B, et al. (2004) Methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus in hospitals and the community: stealth dynamics and control catastrophes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 101: 10223-10228.
38. Wang X, Towers S, Panchanathan S, Chowell G, (2013) A population based study of seasonality of skin and soft tissue infections: Implications for the spread of ca-mrsa. Plos one 8: e60872.
39. Olesevich M, Kennedy A, (2007) Emergence of community-acquired methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus soft tissue infections. Journal of Pediatric Surgery 42: 765-768.
40. Parnes B, Fernald D, Coombs L, DeAlleaume L, Brandt E, et al. (2011) Improving the management of skin and soft tissue infections in primary care: a report from state networks of colorado ambulatory practices and partners (snocap-usa) and the distributed ambulatory research in therapeutics network (dartnet). The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine 24: 534-542.
41. Marra F, Patrick DM, Chong M, McKay R, Hoang L, et al. (2012) Population-based study of the increased incidence of skin and soft tissue infections and associated antimicrobial use. Antimicrobial agents and chemotherapy 56: 6243-6249.
42. Fritz SA, Garbutt J, Elward A, Shannon W, Storch GA, (2008) Prevalence of and risk factors for community-acquired methicillin-resistant and methicillin-sensitive staphylococcus aureus colonization in children seen in a practice-based research network. Pediatrics 121: 1090-1098.
43. Wang J, Wang L, Magal P, Wang Y, Zhuo J, et al. (2011) Modelling the transmission dynamics of meticillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus in beijing tongren hospital. Journal of Hospital Infection 79: 302-308.
44. McBryde E, Bradley L, Whitby M, McElwain D, et al. (2004) An investigation of contact transmission of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus. The Journal of hospital infection 58: 104.
45. Marschall J, Mühlemann K, (2006) Duration of methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus carriage, according to risk factors for acquisition. Infection control and hospital epidemiology 27: 1206-1212.
46. Konvalinka A, Errett L, Fong I, et al. (2006) Impact of treating staphylococcus aureus nasal carriers on wound infections in cardiac surgery. The Journal of hospital infection 64: 162.
47. Coates T, Bax R, Coates A, (2009) Nasal decolonization of staphylococcus aureus with mupirocin: strengths, weaknesses and future prospects. Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy 64: 9-15.
48. Ellis MW, Griffith ME, Dooley DP, McLean JC, Jorgensen JH, et al. (2007) Targeted intranasal mupirocin to prevent colonization and infection by community-associated methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus strains in soldiers: a cluster randomized controlled trial. Antimicrobial agents and chemotherapy 51: 3591-3598.
49. Salgado CD, Farr BM, Calfee DP, (2003) Community-acquired methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus: a meta-analysis of prevalence and risk factors. Clinical Infectious Diseases 36: 131-139.
50. Bureau USC (2004). Population data. Available: http://www.census.gov/popest.