Changing planet, changing health: How the climate crisis threatens our health and what we can do about it

Changing Planet, Changing Health: How the Climate Crisis Threatens Our Health and What We Can do about It

Volumn , Issue , 2011, Pages

  Epstein, Paul R ^a   Ferber, Dan ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 84887766688     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
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References (221)

1. Larsen Bice shelf: Larsen Ice Shelf Has Progressively Thinned and photo captions from Scott Polar Research Institute, www.spri.cam.ac.uk/research/projects/larseniceshelf, October 31, 2003 Paul R. Epstein and James J. McCarthy, "Assessing Climate Stability," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, December 2004, 1863-70
2. Eugene Domack, et al., "Stability of the Larsen B Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula during the Holocene Epoch," Nature 436: 7051 (2005)
3. Andrew Shepherd, Duncan Wingham, Tony Payne, et al., "Larsen Ice Shelf Has Progressively Thinned," Science 302: 5646 (2003)
4. Antarctic Ice Shelf Breaks Apart, BBC online, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1880566.stm, March 19, 2002.
5. drowning polar bears: Jim Carlton, "Is Global Warming Killing the Polar Bears?" Wall Street Journal, December 14, 2005.
6. melted 10 percent of the ice in the Alps: Janet Larsen, "Setting the Record Straight: More than 52,000 Europeans Died from Heat in Summer 2003," Plan B Updates (Washington, DC: Earth Policy Institute), www.earth-policy.org/index.php?/plan_b_updates/2006/update56, July 28, 2006.
7. absent from Africa for most of the twentieth century: R. I. Glass, P. A. Blake, R. J. Waldman, M. Claeson, and N. F. Pierce, "Cholera in Africa: Lessons on Transmission and Control for Latin America," Lancet 338: 8770 (September 28, 1991): 791-95
8. C. Lam, S. Octavia, P. Reeves, L. Wang, and R. Lan, "Evolution of Seventh Cholera Pandemic and Origin of 1991 Epidemic, Latin America," Emerging Infectious Disease 16: 7 (July 2010): 130-32.
9. United Nations report: Gro Harlem Brundtland and the World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future (New York: Oxford University Press, 1987).
10. "Public health assumed that we'd licked it": Interview with Dick Levins, April 2008.
11. William Harvey: R. E. Philips, Jr., The Heart and the Circulatory System, Access Excellence @ The National Health Museum, www.accessexcellence.org/AE/AEC/CC/heart_background.php, accessed September 29, 2010.
12. Ludwig von Bertalanffy: For descriptions of systems theory and details of Bertalanffy's career, see F. Heylighen and C. Joslyn, "What Is Systems Theory?" Principia Cybernetica Web (Brussels: Principia Cybernetica), http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/SYSTHEOR.html, November 1, 1992
13. T. E. Weckowicz, Ludwig von Bertalanffy (1901-1972): A Pioneer of General Systems Theory, Center for Systems Research Working Paper No. 89-2 (Edmonton: University of Alberta, February 1989). Bertalanffy spent the last years of his career at the University of Alberta
14. Weckowicz was his colleague. Also see Ludwig von Bertalanffy (1901-1972), International Society for the Systems Sciences, www.isss.org/lumLVB.htm, accessed September 29, 2010.
15. intangible life force: F. Capra, The Web of Life (New York: Anchor Books, 1997), 26.
16. flame of a lit candle: A. Scott, "Physicalism, Chaos, and Reductionism," in The Emerging Physics of Consciousness, ed. J. A. Tuszynski, 185 (New York: Springer, 2006).
17. Feedback mechanisms: Capra, The Web of Life, 57.
18. The Quark and the Jaguar: M. Gell-Mann, The Quark and the Jaguar (New York: Henry Holt and Company, 1994).
19. "Epidemics . . . are like sign-posts": R. Virchow, "Report on the typhus epidemic in Upper Silesia," in Collected Essays on Public Health and Epidemiology, ed. and trans. L. J. Rather (Canton, MA: Science History Publications, 1985).
20. large cholera epidemics erupt as if on cue: S. M. Faruque, et al., "Seasonal Epidemics of Cholera Inversely Correlate with the Prevalence of Environmental Cholera Phages," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 102: 5 (2005).
21. V. cholerae could hide out: Interview with Rita Colwell, April 2008
22. P. R. Epstein, T. E. Ford, and R. R. Colwell, "Marine Ecosystems," Lancet 342 (1993).
23. startling declines in frog populations: Michael McCally, "Environment and Health: An Overview," Canadian Medical Association Journal 163: 5 (2000).
24. James Hansen sounded the first major public alarm: Quotes and details are from the hearing transcript and from Philip Shabecoff, "Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate," New York Times, June 24, 1988.
25. The IPCC authors concluded: IPCC, Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 1990), also available at www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf.
26. nearly six billion tons of carbon: Fiona Godlee and Alison Walker, "Importance of a Healthy Environment," British Medical Journal 303 (1991).
27. the medical profession received its first warning: Alexander Leaf, "Potential Health Effects of Global Climatic and Environmental Changes," New England Journal of Medicine 321: 23 (1989).
28. Andrew Githeko's is the tale of a scientific underdog: Material on Andrew Githeko's work and life are from coauthor Dan Ferber's interviews and observations during a trip to Kenya, March 19-25, 2008.
29. tertiary prevention: See any public health textbook, such as Mary-Jane Schneider, Introduction to Public Health (Sudbury, MA: Jones and Bartlett, 2006), 12.
30. The model also made a startling new prediction: Andrew Githeko's climate-malaria models are described in Githeko and Ndegwa, "Predicting Malaria Epidemics in the Kenyan Highlands Using Climate Data."
31. IPCC's third assessment report: IPCC, Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report (Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2008), www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm.
32. turned into a slugfest: The studies by climate-health naysayers that informed this section include David J. Rogers and Sarah E. Randolph, "The Global Spread of Malaria in a Future, Warmer World," Science 289: 5485 (2000)
33. Chris Dye and Paul Reiter, "Temperatures without Fevers?" Science 289: 5485 (2000)
34. Simon I. Hay, et al., "Climate Change and the Resurgence of Malaria in the East African Highlands," Nature 415: 6874 (2002)
35. S. I. Hay, D. J. Rogers, S. E. Randolph, et al., "Hot Topic or Hot Air? Climate Change and Malaria Resurgence in East African Highlands," Trends in Parasitology 18: 12 (2002).
36. the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development: For a capsule history of the event, see United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (1992), www.un.org/geninfo/bp/enviro.html, accessed October 4, 2010.
37. My colleague and I were stunned: Paul Epstein's recollections, and an interview with Eric Chivian, December 2, 2008.
38. slammed vice presidential candidate Gore: David Remnick, "Ozone Man," New Yorker, April 24, 2006.
39. "on a collision course": 1992 World Scientists' Warning to Humanity, Union of Concerned Scientists, www.ucsusa.org/about/1992-world-scientists.html, accessed October 4, 2010.
40. the view from twenty-five thousand feet: Epstein and Sharp, "Medicine in a Warmer World."
41. a Swedish physicist and chemist named Svante Arrhenius: Svante Arrhenius, 1859-1927, Earth Observatory, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Arrhenius, accessed October 4, 2010.
42. These effects combine to rev up the global water cycle: P. Y. Groisman, et al., "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States," Journal of Hydrometeorology 5: 1 (2004)
43. IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, 238.
44. dengue fever infected fifty million people: Dengue and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever, Fact Sheet 117, World Health Organization, www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs117/en, March 2009.
45. Asian tiger mosquito: U.S. Distribution, Asian Tiger Mosquito, a map from the University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, http://entnemdept.ufl.edu/creatures/aquatic/Asian-tiger2000.htm, accessed October 4, 2010.
46. complications make Lyme disease very expensive to treat: John R. Brownstein, "Lyme Disease: Implications of Climate Change," in Climate Change Futures, ed. Paul R. Epstein and Evan Mills (Boston: Center for Health and the Global Environment, Harvard Medical School, 2005).
47. Lyme cases like Ballas's have become more common: Reported Cases of Lyme Disease by Year, United States, 1994-2008, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid/lyme/ld_UpClimbLymeDis.htm, accessed October 4, 2010.
48. Foster planted ragweed seeds: Peter Wayne, Susannah Foster, John Connolly, Fakhri Bazzaz, and Paul Epstein, "Production of Allergenic Pollen by Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) Is Increased in CO2-Enriched Atmospheres," Annals of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology 8 (2002).
49. urban heat island effect: For information on heat islands, including increased vulnerability to heat exhaustion and heat stroke, see the links listed at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Web site, www.epa.gov/hiri.
50. a remarkable one in five people admitted to Harlem Hospital: Personal communications with Dr. Ben Ortiz, July 2008.
51. When allergies kick off an asthma attack: "Asthma In-Depth Report," New York Times Health Guide, http://health.nytimes.com/health/guides/disease/asthma/causes.html, accessed October 7, 2010.
52. a dust cloud the size of the continental United States: Information on mobile pollution is from S. T. Ott, et al., "Analysis of a Transatlantic Sub-Saharan Dust Outbreak Based on Satellite and GATE Data," Monthly Weather Review 119 (1991)
53. Epstein and Mills, Climate Change Futures.
54. Saudi refugee camps plagued by clouds of powdery dirt: Interview with former Saudi refugee camp resident Wafaa Bilal, September 2007.
55. southern United States has gotten drier in recent years: William Sprigg, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, University of Arizona, presentation at the American Association for the Advancement of Science conference in February 2008.
56. pathogen-laden dust from new deserts: Epstein and Mills, Climate Change Futures.
57. In India, a 2003 heat wave: "Encephalitis Kills 110 Children," Chicago Tribune, July 16, 2003.
58. Unacceptable someone should die from excessive heat: Interview with Gary Szatkowski, November 2008.
59. Kalkstein's warning system was used in forty U.S. municipalities: Kalkstein personal communications and PowerPoint presentations, November and December 2008.
60. Not far offshore, the warm Gulf Stream: Information on the Marine Biological Laboratory is from Lewis Thomas, Lives of a Cell: Notes of a Biology Watcher (New York: Penguin Group, 1978), 69 and 72, and from the Marine Biological Laboratory, www.mbl.edu/about/discovery/breakthrough.html, accessed October 7, 2010.
61. Strains of bean plants that resist the virus at ordinary temperatures become vulnerable: P. K. Anderson and F. J. Morales, "The Emergence of New Plant Diseases: The Case of Insect-Transmitted Plant Viruses," Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 740 (1994).
62. What plants, algae, and blue-green algae (cyanobacteria) gain: Peter H. Raven and George B. Johnson, Biology, 4th ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1996), 216-26.
63. Led early agronomists to predict: Evan DeLucia interview, Urbana, Illinois, July 2008.
64. Real-world conditions cut the CO2 fertilization boon in half: Evan DeLucia interviews;
65. Stephen P. Long, et al., "Food for Thought: Lower-Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising CO2 Concentrations," Science 312: 5782 (2006);
66. David Schimel, "Climate Change and Crop Yields: Beyond Cassandra," Science 312 (2006).
67. soybean aphids: The soybean aphid description is from CropWatch, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, http://cropwatch.unl.edu/archives/2008/crop15/soybean_aphids.htm, accessed October 7, 2010.
68. Plant defenses such as these: Gregory J. Retallack, et al., "Early Forest Soils and Their Role in Devonian Global Change," Science 276 (1997).
69. Geological evidence indicates: James C. Zachos, et al., "An Early Cenozoic Perspective on Greenhouse Warming and Carbon-Cycle Dynamics," Nature 451: 7176 (2008).
70. Ellen Currano of the Smithsonian Institution: Information on events at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum are from Ellen D. Currano, et al., "Sharply Increased Insect Herbivory during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105: 6 (2008);
71. Evan H. DeLucia, et al., "Insects Take a Bigger Bite Out of Plants in a Warmer, Higher Carbon Dioxide World," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105: 6 (2008).
72. Strikes dread in the hearts of farmers: Information on the threat of soybean rust and its movement into the United States is from Erik Stokstad, "Plant Pathologists Gear Up for Battle with Dread Fungus," Science 306: 5702 (2004) and the Web site www.stopsoybeanrust.com.
73. "Charcoal rot": Paul R. Epstein and Evan Mills, ed., Climate Change Futures (Boston: Center for Health and the Global Environment, Harvard Medical School, 2005).
74. The heat itself may kill them: Cynthia Rosenzweig, Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture: The Impacts of Warming and Extreme Weather Events on Productivity, Plant Diseases and Pests (Boston: Center for Health and the Global Environment, Harvard Medical School, 2000).
75. It is estimated that 35-50 percent of the world's wheat crops: Chee Chee Leung, "GM Wheat Yields Hope for Big Dry; Bid for 50 Drought Tolerant Crops," The Age (Australia), June 18, 2008.
76. Farmers in the bush had committed suicide: Sarah Wotherspoon, "Bush Suicide Shock; Drought Exacts Deadly Toll on Victorian Farmers," Herald Sun (Australia), October 8, 2007.
77. Ethiopia's ability to grow food for its citizens: Interview with Chris Funk, February 2008;
78. Chris Funk's presentation at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Boston, Massachusetts, February 2008;
79. James Verdin, et al., "Climate Science and Famine Early Warning," Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 360: 1463 (2005).
80. In the United States, water conflicts have already begun: Jay Reeves, "Wet December Eases Drought in the South," Associated Press, December 19, 2008;
81. U.S. Drought Monitor, www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html, accessed December 19, 2008;
82. Abraham Lustgarten and David Hasemyer, "Colorado River May Face Fight of Its Life," U-T Special Report, San Diego Union Tribune, December 21, 2008.
83. Civil society institutions can play crucial roles: Molly E. Brown and Christopher C. Funk, "Food Security under Climate Change," Science 319: 5863 (2008).
84. Sherman is an innovative ecologist: Kenneth Sherman, "Coastal Ecosystem Health: A Global Perspective," Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 740 (1994);
85. Large Marine Ecosystems: A Breakthrough Concept for Ecosystem Management, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/ecosystems, accessed October 8, 2010.
86. Domoic acid poisoning next appeared in the Pacific off the West Coast of the United States: Crisis Off Our Coast, International Bird Rescue Research Center, www.ibrrc.org/pelican_domoic.html, accessed October 8, 2010.
87. Epstein, et al., Marine Ecosystems: Emerging Diseases as Indicators of Change; CDC, Ciguatera Fish Poisoning Web page, www.cdc.gov/nceh/ciguatera/default.htm, accessed October 8, 2010.
88. Marc Kaufman, "Snail Sting 1000 Times Stronger than Morphine," Washington Post, December 30, 2004;
89. Reefs provide habitat: Joan Kleypas, et al., Impacts of Ocean 133 on Coral Reefs and Other Marine Calcifiers, report of a workshop sponsored by NSF, NOAA, and USGS, www.ucar.edu/communications/Final_acidification.pdf, June 2006.
90. Reefs' ability to protect shorelines from storm damage: Epstein and Mills, Climate Change Futures.
91. Slight increases in acidity slow shell building: Elizabeth Kolbert, "The Darkening Sea," New Yorker, November 20, 2006.
92. "The rise of slime": Kolbert, "The Darkening Sea."
93. Whitebark pines . . . anchor the high-altitude forest: Jesse Logan interviews, May and June 2008;
94. Logan presentation at the Whitebark Pine Citizen Scientists Project Training Workshop held by the Natural Resources Defense Council, June 16-17, 2008;
95. Charles Petit, "In the Rockies, Pines Die and Bears Feel It," New York Times, January 30, 2007;
96. Jim Robbins, "Bark Beetles Kill Millions of Acres of Trees in West," New York Times, November 18, 2008.
97. For example, when chestnut blight was introduced to North America: Scott Brennan and Jay Withgott, Environment: The Science behind the Stories (New York: Pearson/Benjamin Cummings, 2005), 140, 152.
98. "Ecosystem services are indispensable": Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2005), 2.
99. This uneasy equilibrium was broken: Allan Carroll interview, December 2008;
100. Wendy Stueck, "The Mighty Are Falling," Globe and Mail, September 1, 2007;
101. Logan and Powell, "Ghost Forests, Global Warming and the Mountain Pine Beetle."
102. Larry Pynn, "BC Parks, Forests Ministry Will Combat Bark Beetles," Vancouver Sun, September 30, 2003.
103. Such failure has ramifications for the planet: Werner A. Kurz, et al., "Mountain Pine Beetle and Forest Carbon Feedback to Climate Change," Nature 452: 7190 (2008);
104. Werner Kurz, "Making the Paper," Nature 452 (2008).
105. Egan, "On Hot Trail of Tiny Killer in Alaska";
106. Dan Glaister, "Plague of Beetles Raises Climate Change Fears for American Beauty," Guardian, March 19, 2007.
107. Stephen Pyne, "Passing the Torch: Why the Eons-Old Truce between Humans and Fire Has Burst into an Age of Megafires, and What Can Be Done about It," American Scholar 77: 2 (2008): 22-23.
108. California . . . has been particularly hard hit: Media reports, including Chris Ayres, "Celebrities among 250,000 Forced to Flee California Wild Fires," Ottawa Citizen, October 23, 2007;
109. "Calif. Fires Rage Despite Calmer Winds," CBS/AP, November 17, 2008;
110. Andrew Bridges, "Firefighter Dies Trying to Save Historic Town from Wildfires," Associated Press, October 30, 2003.
111. Stephen Running, "Is Global Warming Causing More, Larger Wildfires?" Science 313 (2006): 927;
112. Anthony L. Westerling, et al., "Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity," Science 313 (2006).
113. Woke up to the acrid smell of smoke: The story of Bob and Sandra Younger's ordeal with the fire is from an interview with Sandra Younger, November 2008.
114. The victims of the Cedar Fire included: Ryan Kim, "Flames Ravage Tiny Community," San Francisco Chronicle, October 29, 2003;
115. Kevin Caruso, "Tribute to Steven Rucker," www.firefighterheroes.com/tribute-to-steven-rucker.html, accessed November 30, 2008;
116. "James, Solange and Randy Shohara, 3 Victims of Cedar fire," San Diego Union Tribune, November 12, 2003.
117. Richard M. Todaro and David M. Legler, Predicting El Niño and Other Climate Variations: Successes and Remaining Challenges, U.S. Global Change Research Program, www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/highlights/highlight-june2002.htm, June 20, 2002.
118. Paul R. Epstein and Godfrey P. Chikwenhere, "Environmental Factors in Disease Surveillance," Lancet 343 (1994);
119. Paul R. Epstein and Godfrey P. Chikwenhere, "Biodiversity Questions," letter, Science 265 (1994);
120. Julie Cliff and J. Coutinho, "Acute Intoxication from Newly Introduced Cassava during Drought in Mozambique," Tropical Doctor 25 (1995).
121. Such outbreaks typically follow major hurricanes and flooding: John T. Watson, Michelle Gayer, and Maire A. Connolly, "Epidemics after Natural Disasters," Emerging Infectious Diseases 13: 1 (2007).
122. Hurricane Katrina Community Advisory Group, "Mental Illness and Suicidality after Hurricane Katrina," Bulletin of the World Health Organization 84: 12 (2006);
123. Sandro Galea, et al., "Exposure to Hurricane-Related Stressors and Mental Illness after Hurricane Katrina," Archives of General Psychiatry 64: 12 (2007).
124. epidemic of cryptosporidiosis: William R. Mac Kenzie, Neil J. Hoxie, Mary E. Proctor, et al., "A Massive Outbreak in Milwaukee of Cryptosporidium Infection Transmitted through the Public Water Supply," New England Journal of Medicine 331: 3 (1994).
125. To prevent such outbreaks in the stormier, flood-prone years: Interview with Joan Rose, a waterborne disease and climate expert at Michigan State University, October 2008.
126. Of the hundreds of neighborhoods in Tegucigalpa that had lost access to public drinking water: Godofredo Andino, personal communication, January 2008
127. Vasquez Briceno, personal communication, January 2008.
128. "Of course we're worried": Interview with Teddy Thomas, July 2008.
129. Just a few days before I was scheduled to speak: My article, "Climate and Health," appeared in Science on July 16, 1999.
130. In that same issue was Kenneth J. Linthicum, Assaf Anyamba, Compton J. Tucker, et al., "Climate and Satellite Indicators to Forecast Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Kenya," Science 285: 5426 (1999). The second meeting of the panel, when I gave my talk, occurred July 20-21, 1999.
131. Bush reversed his campaign pledge: Andrew C. Revkin, "Despite Opposition in Party, Bush to Seek Emissions Cuts," New York Times, March 10, 2001
132. Douglas Jehl with Andrew C. Revkin, "Bush, in Reversal, Won't Seek Cut in Emissions of Carbon Dioxide," New York Times, March 14, 2001.
133. Bush charged Cheney with developing a new energy policy: Cheney's roles are from the Washington Post multimedia piece Angler: The Cheney Vice Presidency.
134. The next year, 2003, our center launched a large two-and-a-half-year study: UNDP, Swiss Re and the Harvard Center for Health and the Global Environment Embark on Groundbreaking Study, Swiss Re, www.swissre.com/media/media_information/undp_swiss_re_and_the _harvard_center_for_health_and_the_global_environment_embark_on _groundbreaking_study.html, September 22, 2003.
135. an eye-opening report: "Office of Net Assessment," SourceWatch, an online encyclopedia of the Center for Media and Democracy, www .sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Office_of_Net_Assessment, accessed October 12, 2010
136. the statement of Stephen P. Rosen was cited by Gary J. Schmitt of the Project for a New American Century, a neoconservative think tank, www.newamericancentury.org/defnov1097.htm, November 10, 1997.
137. Just as President George W. Bush was launching his campaign: The report was dated October 2003, the Fortune magazine article was January 2004, and Bush's campaign ran through 2004; About GBN, Global Business Network, www.gbn.com/about/index.php, accessed October 12, 2010.
138. evidence for steady change: Keeling Curve Lessons, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, http://scrippsc02.ucsd.edu/pr0gram_hist0ry/keeling _curve_less0ns_4.html, accessed October 12, 2010.
139. an extremely sobering report: Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises (Report in Brief) (Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences, 2002), 1, www.nap.edu/html/climatechange-brief/abruptclimate change-brief.pdf.
140. when the world's warming climate hurtled over a precipice: Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security (San Francisco: Global Business Network, October 2003).
141. same latitude as Anchorage: William H. Calvin, "The Great Climate Flip-Flop," Atlantic Monthly, January 1998.
142. Researchers determine a temperature for a particular year: W. Dans-gaard, S.J. Johnsen, H.B. Claussen, et al., "Evidence for General Instability of Past Climate from a 250-kyr Ice-Core Record," Nature 364: 6434 (1993).
143. The temperature was amazingly constant for the past 10,000 years: Holocene climate has been mostly stable, but there was an abrupt cooling 8,200 years ago that lasted 150 years, an abrupt shift in precipitation that turned the Sahara from grassland to desert, and other shifts in temperatures and rainfall.
144. the idea of a living Earth was more than a metaphor: James Lovelock, Homage to Gaia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001)
145. Oliver Morton's book on photosynthesis, Eating the Sun (New York: HarperCollins, 2008), is an excellent source on Lovelock's personal history and that of the Gaia hypothesis.
146. When they examined Mars: Dian R. Hitchcock and James E. Lovelock, "Life Detection by Atmospheric Analysis," Icarus 7: 149 (1967).
147. Lovelock's hypothesis was ridiculed and attacked: The long years of ridicule and ultimate vindication of the Gaia hypothesis are described in detail here: Jim Gillon, "Feedback on Gaia," Nature 406 (2000)
148. Drake Bennett, "Dark Green," Boston Globe, January n, 2009
149. Stephen H. Schneider and Penelope J. Boston, Scientists on Gaia (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1993).
150. A third positive feedback involves water vapor: Gavin Schmidt, "Water Vapour: Feedback or Forcing?" RealClimate, www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=i42, April 6, 2005.
151. changing more, and more quickly: Richard P. Allan and Brian J. Soden, "Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes," Science 321: 5 (2008)
152. Quirin Schiermeier, "A Rising Tide," Nature 428: 6979 (2004). Information on the cryosphere is from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, www.nsidc.org/sotc/iceshelves.html, accessed October 12, 2010
153. Krishna Ramanujan, Fastest Glacier in Greenland Doubles Speed, NASA news, www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/jakobshavn.html, December 1, 2004.
154. how likely it is to change abruptly: Paul R. Epstein and James J. McCarthy, "Assessing Climate Stability," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 85 (2004).
155. Also on the rise are novel events and outliers: The hottest European summer since at least 1500 is described in P.A. Stott, et al., "Human Contribution to the European Heatwave of 2003," Nature 432: 7017 (2004), and the South Atlantic hurricane is described in Chris Mooney, Storm World (Orlando: Harcourt Books, 2007), in.
156. For years afterward, Swiss Re employees at the conference that day: Paul Epstein's recollections and an interview with Stephen Dishart, who was present at the event, May 2008.
157. Eleven insurers became insolvent, abandoning thousands of homeowners: Jeff Harrington, "Insurance Customers Still Paying the Price," St. Petersburg Times, August 18, 2002.
158. "caught unprepared for ostensibly 'inconceivable' disasters": Evan Mills, "Insurance in a Climate of Change," Science 309: 5737 (August 12, 2005): 1040-44.
159. The mission of public health: Institute of Medicine, The Future of Public Health (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1988), 40.
160. Equator Principles: See the Equator Principles Web site, www.equator principles.com.
161. David Riecks and Anna Barnes faced a dilemma: The story of their decision to install a heat pump is based on interviews conducted in September 2008.
162. Just a few feet below the ground: "What Is a Ground Source Heat Pump?" in What Is Geothermal? at International Ground Source Heat Pump Association, www.igshpa.okstate.edu/geothermal/geothermal.htm, accessed October 22, 2010.
163. Ron Later: The story of his windmill is based on a phone interview with Later in October 2008.
164. Jerry Brous and his wife, Pat: The story of their experience with Grid-Wise is based on phone interviews in September 2008.
165. "the most expensive power you can buy": Our explanation of how Grid-Wise works is based on a phone interview with Rob Pratt in September 2008.
166. The ground source heat pump industry: Liz Galst, "With Energy in Focus, Heat Pumps Win Fans," New York Times, August 14, 2008.
167. the stabilization wedge: Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow, "Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies," Science 305: 5 (2004)
168. Fred Wellington, et al., Scaling Up: Global Technology Deployment to Stabilize Emissions (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, April 2007), 3.
169. Consider, too, compact fluorescent lightbulbs: CFL background is from Light Bulbs (CFLs), Energy Star, www.energystar.gov/index.cfm?c=cfls .pr_cfls, accessed October 20, 2010
170. information on mercury toxicity is from ToxFAQs for Mercury, Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, www.atsdr.cdc.gov/toxfaqs/tf.asp?id=ii3&tid=24, April 1999.
171. nanoparticles made from petroleum: Epstein, et al., Healthy Solutions for the Low Carbon Economy.
172. The precautionary principle: Epstein, et al., Healthy Solutions for the Low Carbon Economy.
173. coal transport trains make up as much as jo percent: Epstein, et al., Healthy Solutions for the Low Carbon Economy.
174. how clean "clean coal" really is: Bush's promise of clean coal is from National Energy Policy, National Energy Policy Development Group, www.ne.doe.gov/pdfFiles/nationalEnergyPolicy.pdf, May 2001, 5-15;
175. Coal gasification: How Coal Gasification Power Plants Work, U.S. Department of Energy, www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/powersystems/gasification/howgasificationworks.html, accessed October 20, 2010.
176. The nation's designated permanent nuclear waste repository: Yucca Mountain background is from media reports, including "Milestones on the Road to Yucca Mountain," Las Vegas Review-Journal, www.reviewjournal.com/news/yuccamtn/milestones.jpg, accessed October 20, 2010.
177. Bill Moomaw: The story of the Moomaws' Berkshires home is based on interviews conducted in October and November 2008.
178. When Rob Pratt . . . talks to audiences: Rob Pratt's story is based on personal communications in September 2008.
179. Evolving green agenda: Personal communication with Sadhu Johnston, July 2007, about Chicago's green efforts; Bike 2015 Plan, City of Chicago, Mayor's Bicycle Advisory Council, www.bike2015plan.org, January 2006.
180. Better land use planning: John Norquist, personal communication, April 2007.
181. On a hot, sun-baked afternoon in Choluteca, Honduras: The material in this section is from coauthor Dan Ferber's trip to Choluteca with Juan Almendares, photographer Jason Lindsey, and two translators in January 2008.
182. In 1972, Choluteca's climate: Juan Almendares, et al., "Critical Regions, a Profile of Honduras," Lancet 342 (1993); "Gulf of Fonseca Mangroves," National Geographic online, www.nationalgeographic.com/wildworld/profiles/terrestrial/nt/nt1412.html, accessed October 20, 2010.
183. In their three weeks at Bretton Woods, Keynes and White: John Cassidy, "New World Disorder," New Yorker, October 26, 1998.
184. the three decades following World War II: Cassidy, "New World Disorder."
185. In his eye-opening book: John Perkins, Confessions of an Economic Hit Man (San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler, 2004), 15 and xvii.
186. the Washington Consensus: Paul Epstein and Greg Guest, "International Architecture for Sustainable Development and Global Health," in Globalization, Health and the Environment: An Integrated Perspective, ed. Greg Guest (Lanham, MD: Altamira Press, 2005), 239-58.
187. money, much of it interest, collectively being paid by developing nations: Epstein and Guest, "International Architecture for Sustainable Development and Global Health."
188. a rapid rise in currency speculation: Bernard Lietaer, "From the Real Economy to the Speculative," IFG News (International Forum on Globalization) 2 (summer 1997).
189. As long as different national currencies exist: Currency speculation background and examples are adapted from Christian Weller, "Currency Speculation: How Great a Danger?" Dollars and Sense, May - June 1998, www.dollarsandsense.org/archives/1998/0598weller.html.
190. $3 trillion a day: Niall Ferguson, television series The Ascent of Money, Chimerica Media Limited and WNET.org, first aired January 13, 2009; Weller, "Currency Speculation: How Great a Danger?"
191. that's what happened in Thailand: "The Crash: Timeline of the Panic"; George Soros, The Crisis of Global Capitalism (New York: Public Affairs, 1998), 245.
192. Democrats and Republicans alike had dismantled regulations: Robert Kuttner, "The Great Crash," American Prospect, June 2003.
193. Glass-Steagall Act: Reem Heakal, "What Was the Glass-Steagall Act?" Investopedia, www.investopedia.com/articles/03/071603.asp, accessed October 21, 2010.
194. By unhinging exchange rates and constraints on capital flow: Paul Epstein, "Yes, We May All Be Keynesians - But He Has More to Teach Us," Financial Times, January 5, 2009.
195. In February of that year: A report on the speech by preeminent climate scientist John Holdren at United Nations Headquarters, New York, February 14, 2008, is in Investor Summit on Climate Risk Final Report (Boston: Ceres, 2008).
196. "Here in the early years of the twenty-first century"
197. Bill Moomaw was quoted in Andrew C. Revkin, "Climate Panel Reaches Consensus on the Need to Reduce Harmful Emissions," New York Times, May 4, 2007.
198. But Darbee had plenty of company: For example, see the description of the 2008 CERES conference in chapter 10. USCAP is another example: Timothy Gardner, "U.S. Industry Plan to Cut Greenhouse Gases Criticized," New York Times, May 2, 2007.
199. The cap-and-trade system was pioneered: James Gustave Speth, The Bridge at the Edge of the World (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2008), 94.
200. Al Gore . . . gave a major speech: David Stout, "Gore Calls for Carbon- Free Electric Power," New York Times, July 18, 2008.
201. Sarah Palin: Alaska Gov. Palin Appears to Deny Global Warming Is Due to Human Activity, Climate Science Watch, www.climatesciencewatch.org/2008/08/30/alaska-gov-palin-appears-to-deny-global-warming-is-due-to-human-activity, August 30, 2008.
202. A global food crisis also worsened in 2008: Information on the global food crisis is from UNEP, The Environmental Food Crisis (UN Environment Programme, 2009), 13, www.unep.org/pdf/FoodCrisis_lores.pdf.
203. As prices of staple foods soared, riots broke out: Information on global food riots is from Vivienne Walt, "The World's Growing Food-Price Crisis," Time, February 27, 2008
204. Joseph Guyler Delva and Jim Loney, "Haiti's Government Falls after Food Riots," Reuters, April 12, 2008
205. "Food Riots in Egypt," Al Jazeera, March 13, 2008.
206. His $787 billion fiscal stimulus bill: Michael A. Fletcher, "Obama Leaves D.C. to Sign Stimulus Bill," Washington Post, February 18, 2009
207. Kate Galbraith, "Obama Signs Stimulus Packed with Clean Energy Provisions," New York Times, February 17, 2009.
208. Obama's stagecraft communicated his priorities: Kate Galbraith, "Obama Touts Clean Energy Achievements," New York Times, May 27, 2009.
209. climate-warming emissions were rising faster than anyone had anticipated: Dan Ferber, "Climate Change Worst-Case Scenarios: Not Worst Enough," Findings, the Science magazine news blog, http://blogs.sciencemag.org/newsblog/2009/02/climate-change-worst-case-scen.html, February 14, 2009.
210. Obama sought to influence the world's nations on climate policy: Kent Garber, "Browner: Climate Change Law Would Bolster U.S. Role at Global Warming Talks," U.S. News and World Report, April 13, 2009.
211. Theatrics followed anyway: Mitch Daniels, "Indiana Says 'No Thanks' to Cap and Trade," Wall Street Journal, May 15, 2009
212. Mike Pence, "Bill Is an Economic Declaration of War," Indianapolis Star, May 31, 2009
213. "GOP Called Democratic Climate Proposal 'Unwise,' " Wall Street Journal, May 30, 2009.
214. Tobin tax: Tobin Taxes: How to Tame Hot Money and Fund Urgent Global Priorities, fact sheet, Center for Environmental Economic Development, www.ceedweb.org/iirp/factsheet.htm, accessed October 22, 2010.
215. one of Keynes's ideas that never came to pass: George Monbiot, "Keynes Is Innocent: The Toxic Spawn of Bretton Woods Was No Plan of His," Guardian, November 18, 2008.
216. An FBI-led . . . probe: Jerry Markon, "Criminal Probe of Oil Spill to Focus on 3 Firms and Their Ties to Regulators," Washington Post, July 28, 2010
217. Seth Borenstein, "Gulf Oil Spill Panel to Look at Root Causes," Associated Press via the Christian Science Monitor, July 9, 2010.
218. spill bills: Kate Sheppard, "It's Spill Bill Time," MotherJones online, http://MotherJones.com, July 27, 2010
219. John M. Broder, "House and Senate Roll Out Spill Bills," New York Times, July 27, 2010.
220. In a perceptive 2009 essay: Peter C. Whybrow, "Dangerously Addictive: Why We Are Biologically Ill-Suited to the Riches of Modern America," Chronicle of Higher Education, March 13, 2009.
221. That process is well under way: Eric Lipton, "With Obama, Regulations Are Back in Fashion," New York Times, May 12, 2010.