Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification

Global Change Biology

Volumn 19, Issue 12, 2013, Pages 3592-3606

  Couce, Elena ^a   Ridgwell, Andy ^a   Hendy, Erica J ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling; Boosted regression trees; Coral reef ecosystems; Global warming; MaxEnt; Maximum entropy; Ocean acidification

Indexed keywords

ACIDIFICATION; BIOCLIMATOLOGY; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CORAL REEF; ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS; GLOBAL WARMING; HABITAT STRUCTURE; MARINE ECOSYSTEM; NATURE CONSERVATION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (EQUATORIAL);

ANTHOZOA;

CARBON DIOXIDE; SEA WATER;

ANIMAL; ANTHOZOA; ARTICLE; BIOCLIMATIC ENVELOPE MODELING; BOOSTED REGRESSION TREES; CHEMISTRY; CORAL REEF; CORAL REEF ECOSYSTEMS; GEOGRAPHY; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; MAXENT; MAXIMUM ENTROPY; METABOLISM; OCEAN ACIDIFICATION; PH; PHYSIOLOGY; THEORETICAL MODEL;

BIOCLIMATIC ENVELOPE MODELING; BOOSTED REGRESSION TREES; CORAL REEF ECOSYSTEMS; GLOBAL WARMING; MAXENT; MAXIMUM ENTROPY; OCEAN ACIDIFICATION;

ANIMALS; ANTHOZOA; CARBON DIOXIDE; CORAL REEFS; GEOGRAPHY; GLOBAL WARMING; HYDROGEN-ION CONCENTRATION; MODELS, THEORETICAL; SEAWATER;

EID: 84887498539     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12335     Document Type: Article

References (105)

1. Anthony KRN, Kline DI, Diaz-Pulido G, Dove S, Hoegh-Guldberg O (2008) Ocean acidification causes bleaching and productivity loss in coral reef builders. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America, 105, 17442-17446.
2. Araújo MB, Whittaker RJ, Ladle RJ, Erhard M (2005) Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 529-538.
3. Ateweberhan M, McClanahan TR (2010) Relationship between historical sea-surface temperature variability and climate change-induced coral mortality in the western Indian Ocean. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 60, 964-970.
4. Baker AC, Glynn PW, Riegl B (2008) Climate change and coral reef bleaching: an ecological assessment of long-term impacts, recovery trends and future outlook. Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science, 80, 435-471.
5. Baskett ML, Gaines SD, Nisbet RM (2009) Symbiont diversity may help coral reefs survive moderate climate change. Ecological Applications, 19, 3-17.
6. Becker JJ, Sandwell DT, Smith WHF et al. (2009) Global bathymetry and elevation data at 30 arc seconds resolution: SRTM30_PLUS. Marine Geodesy, 32, 355-371.
7. Bishop JKB, Rossow WB (1991) Spatial and temporal variability of global surface solar irradiance. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 96, 16839-16858.
8. Bishop JKB, Rossow WB, Dutton EG (1997) Surface solar irradiance from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project 1983-1991. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 102, 6883-6910.
9. Bradley BA (2010) Assessing ecosystem threats from global and regional change: hierarchical modeling of risk to sagebrush ecosystems from climate change, land use and invasive species in Nevada, USA. Ecography, 33, 198-208.
10. Buddemeier R, Lane D, Martinich J (2011) Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study. Climatic Change, 109, 375-397.
11. Burrows MT, Schoeman DS, Buckley LB et al. (2011) The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Science, 334, 652-655.
12. 2 stabilization and ocean acidification. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L19609.
13. Chan NCS, Connolly SR (2013) Sensitivity of coral calcification to ocean acidification: a meta-analysis. Global Change Biology, 19, 282-290.
14. Chauvin A, Denis V, Cuet F (2011) Is the response of coral calcification to seawater acidification related to nutrient loading? Coral Reefs, 30, 911-923.
15. Cohen AL, Holcomb M (2009) Why corals care about ocean acidification: uncovering the mechanism. Oceanography, 22, 118-127.
16. Cooper TF, De'ath G, Fabricius KE, Lough JM (2008) Declining coral calcification in massive Porites in two nearshore regions of the northern Great Barrier Reef. Global Change Biology, 14, 529-538.
17. Cooper TF, O'leary RA, Lough JM (2012) Growth of western Australian corals in the anthropocene. Science, 335, 593-596.
18. Cortes J (1997) Biology and geology of eastern Pacific coral reefs. Coral Reefs, 16, S39-S46.
19. Couce E, Ridgwell A, Hendy EJ (2012) Environmental controls on the global distribution of shallow-water coral reefs. Journal of Biogeography, 39, 1508-1523.
20. 2 world. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 1799-1804.
21. De'ath G (2007) Boosted trees for ecological modeling and prediction. Ecology, 88, 243-251.
22. De'ath G, Lough JM, Fabricius KE (2009) Declining coral calcification on the Great Barrier Reef. Science, 323, 116-119.
23. Donner SD, Skirving WJ, Little CM, Oppenheimer M, Hoegh-Guldberg O (2005) Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change. Global Change Biology, 11, 2251-2265.
24. Edmunds PJ, Brown D, Moriarty V (2012) Interactive effects of ocean acidification and temperature on two scleractinian corals from Moorea, French Polynesia. Global Change Biology, 18, 2173-2183.
25. Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP et al. (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography, 29, 129-151.
26. Elith J, Leathwick JR, Hastie T (2008) A working guide to boosted regression trees. Journal of Animal Ecology, 77, 802-813.
27. Elith J, Kearney M, Phillips S (2010) The art of modelling range-shifting species. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 1, 330-342.
28. Fabricius KE, Langdon C, Uthicke S et al. (2011) Losers and winners in coral reefs acclimatized to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations. Nature Climate Change, 1, 165-169.
29. Friedman JH (2001) Greedy function approximation: a gradient boosting machine. Annals of Statistics, 29, 1189-1232.
30. Gattuso JP, Gentili B, Duarte CM, Kleypas JA, Middelburg JJ, Antoine D (2006) Light availability in the coastal ocean: impact on the distribution of benthic photosynthetic organisms and their contribution to primary production. Biogeosciences, 3, 489-513.
31. Globcolour (2008) Diffuse Attenuation Coefficient at 490 nm (KD490). Observation de la Terre - Environnement (ACRI-ST), Sophia Antipolis.
32. Glynn PW (1976) Some Physical and Biological Determinants of Coral Community Structure in Eastern Pacific. Ecological Monographs, 46, 431-456.
33. Glynn PW (1996) Coral reef bleaching: facts, hypotheses and implications. Global Change Biology, 2, 495-509.
34. Glynn PW (2012) Global warming and widespread coral mortality: evidence of first coral reef extinctions. In: Saving a Million Species: Extinction Risk from Climate Change (ed. Hannah L), pp. 103-119. Island Press, Washington, DC.
35. Glynn PW, Colgan MW (1992) Sporadic disturbances in fluctuating coral reef environments: El Niño and coral reef development in the Eastern Pacific. American Zoologist, 32, 707-718.
36. Glynn PW, Wellington GM, Riegl B, Olson DB, Borneman E, Wieters EA (2007) Diversity and biogeography of the scleractinian coral fauna of Easter Island (Rapa Nui). Pacific Science, 61, 67-90.
37. Graham J, Jarnevich C, Young N, Newman G, Stohlgren T (2011a) How will climate change affect the potential distribution of Eurasian tree sparrows Passer montanus in North America? Current Zoology, 57, 648-654.
38. Graham NaJ, Nash KL, Kool JT (2011b) Coral reef recovery dynamics in a changing world. Coral Reefs, 30, 283-294.
39. Greenstein BJ, Pandolfi JM (2008) Escaping the heat: range shifts of reef coral taxa in coastal Western Australia. Global Change Biology, 14, 513-528.
40. Guinotte JM, Buddemeier RW, Kleypas JA (2003) Future coral reef habitat marginality: temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin. Coral Reefs, 22, 551-558.
41. Halfar J, Godinez-Orta L, Riegl B, Valdez-Holguin JE, Borges JM (2005) Living on the edge: high-latitude Porites carbonate production under temperate eutrophic conditions. Coral Reefs, 24, 582-592.
42. Hirzel AH, Helfer V, Metral F (2001) Assessing habitat-suitability models with a virtual species. Ecological Modelling, 145, 111-121.
43. Hoegh-Guldberg O (1999) Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs. Marine and Freshwater Research, 50, 839-866.
44. Hoegh-Guldberg O, Mumby PJ, Hooten AJ et al. (2007) Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science, 318, 1737-1742.
45. Hoeke RK, Jokiel PL, Buddemeier RW, Brainard RE (2011) Projected changes to growth and mortality of Hawaiian corals over the next 100 years. PLoS ONE, 6, 1-13.
46. Hönisch B, Ridgwell A, Schmidt DN et al. (2012) The geological record of ocean acidification. Science, 335, 1058-1063.
47. van Hooidonk R, Maynard JA, Planes S (2013) Temporary refugia for coral reefs in a warming world. Nature Climate Change, 3, 508-511.
48. Hughes TP, Baird AH, Bellwood DR et al. (2003) Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs. Science, 301, 929-933.
49. IMaRS-USF (2005) Millennium Coral Reef Mapping Project (unvalidated maps are unendorsed by IRD, and were further interpreted by UNEP-WCMC), UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge (UK). Availabe at: http://data.unep-wcmc.org/datasets/13 (accessed 15 June 2013).
50. IMaRS-USF, IRD (2005) Millennium Coral Reef Mapping Project (validated maps), UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge (UK). Available at: http://data.unep-wcmc.org/datasets/13 (accessed 15 June 2013).
51. IPCC (2007) Global Climate Projections. In: Contributions of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: "The Physical Science Basis" (eds Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL), pp. 747-843. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
52. Kennedy EV, Perry CT, Halloran PR et al. (2013) Avoiding coral reef functional collapse requires local and global action. Current Biology, 23, 912-918.
53. Kiessling W, Simpson C, Beck B, Mewis H, Pandolfi JM (2012) Equatorial decline of reef corals during the last Pleistocene interglacial. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109, 21378-21383.
54. Kleypas JA, McManus JW, Menez LAB (1999a) Environmental limits to coral reef development: where do we draw the line? American Zoologist, 39, 146-159.
55. Kleypas JA, Buddemeier RW, Archer D, Gattuso JP, Langdon C, Opdyke BN (1999b) Geochemical consequences of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Science, 284, 118-120.
56. Krief S, Hendy EJ, Fine M, Yam R, Meibom A, Foster GL, Shemesh A (2010) Physiological and isotopic responses of scleractinian corals to ocean acidification. Geochimica Et Cosmochimica Acta, 74, 4988-5001.
57. Kroeker KJ, Kordas RL, Crim R et al. (2013) Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms: quantifying sensitivities and interaction with warming. Global Change Biology, 19, 1884-1896.
58. Lawler JJ, White D, Neilson RP, Blaustein AR (2006) Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability. Global Change Biology, 12, 1568-1584.
59. Lighty RG, Macintyre IG, Stuckenrath R (1978) Submerged early Holocene barrier reef south-east Florida shelf. Nature, 276, 59-60.
60. Lough JM, Barnes DJ (1997) Several centuries of variation in skeletal extension, density and calcification in massive Porites colonies from the Great Barrier Reef: a proxy for seawater temperature and a background of variability against which to identify unnatural change. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 211, 29-67.
61. Lough JM (2012) Small change, big difference: sea surface temperature distributions for tropical coral reef ecosystems, 1950-2011. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 117, C09018.
62. Lybolt M, Neil D, Zhao J, Feng Y, Yu KF, Pandolfi J (2011) Instability in a marginal coral reef: the shift from natural variability to a human-dominated seascape. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 9, 154-160.
63. Macintyre IG (2003) A classic marginal coral environment: tropical coral patches off North Carolina, USA. Coral Reefs, 22, 474.
64. 2 system of eastern Pacific coral reefs. Limnology and Oceanography, 55, 239-248.
65. 2 world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 10450-10455.
66. Marsh LM (1993) The occurrence and growth of Acropora in extra-tropical waters off Perth, western Australia. In: Proceedings of the Seventh International Coral Reef Symposium Guam 22-26 June 1992, Volume 2 (ed. Richmond RH), pp. 1233-1238. University of Guam Press, Mangilao, Guam.
67. McCulloch M, Falter J, Trotter J, Montagna P (2012) Coral resilience to ocean acidification and global warming through pH up-regulation. Nature Climate Change, 2, 623-633.
68. McKay NP, Overpeck JT, Otto-Bliesner BL (2011) The role of ocean thermal expansion in Last Interglacial sea level rise. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L14605.
69. McNeil BI, Matear RJ, Barnes DJ (2004) Coral reef calcification and climate change: the effect of ocean warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L22309.
70. Meissner KJ, McNeil BI, Eby M, Wiebe EC (2012) The importance of the terrestrial weathering feedback for multimillennial coral reef habitat recovery. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 26, GB3017.
71. Pandolfi JM, Connolly SR, Marshall DJ, Cohen AL (2011) Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification. Science, 333, 418-422.
72. Pearson RG, Dawson TP (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 361-371.
73. Peterson W, Birdsall T, Fox W (1954) The theory of signal detectability. Information Theory, 4, 171-212.
74. Phillips SJ, Dudík M (2008) Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography, 31, 161-175.
75. Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190, 231-259.
76. Precht WF, Aronson RB (2004) Climate flickers and range shifts of reef corals. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2, 307-314.
77. Pulliam HR (2000) On the relationship between niche and distribution. Ecological Letters, 3, 349-361.
78. Ricke KL, Orr JC, Schneider K, Caldeira K (2013) Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (3).
79. Ridgeway G (2007) gbm: Generalized Boosted Regression Models. R Package Version 1.6-3.1. Available at: http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=gbm (accessed 22 March 2012).
80. Riegl B, Bruckner A, Coles SL, Renaud P, Dodge RE (2009) Coral reefs: threats and conservation in an era of global change. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1162, 136-186.
81. Silverman J, Lazar B, Erez J (2007) Effect of aragonite saturation, temperature, and nutrients on the community calcification rate of a coral reef. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 112, C05004.
82. 2 doubles. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L05606.
83. Smith SR (1992) Patterns of coral recruitment and postsettlement mortality on Bermudas reefs - comparisons to Caribbean and Pacific reefs. American Zoologist, 32, 663-673.
84. Smith SV, Buddemeier RW (1992) Global change and coral reef ecosystems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 23, 89-118.
85. Swets JA (1988) Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science, 240, 1285-1293.
86. Thomson DP, Frisch AJ (2010) Extraordinarily high coral cover on a nearshore, high-latitude reef in south-west Australia. Coral Reefs, 29, 923-927.
87. Thuiller W (2004) Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change. Global Change Biology, 10, 2020-2027.
88. Thuiller W, Albert C, Araújo MB et al. (2008) Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: future challenges. Perspectives in Plant Ecology Evolution and Systematics, 9, 137-152.
89. Toth LT, Aronson RB, Vollmer SV et al. (2012) ENSO drove 2500-year collapse of eastern Pacific coral reefs. Science, 337, 81-84.
90. Turley C, Eby M, Ridgwell AJ et al. (2010) The societal challenge of ocean acidification. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 60, 787-792.
91. UNEP-WCMC, WorldFish Centre, WRI, TNC (2010) Global distribution of warm-water coral reefs, compiled from multiple sources, including the Millennium Coral Reef Mapping Project. See attribute table for details. UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK. Available at: http://data.unep-wcmc.org/datasets/13 (accessed 15 June 2013).
92. Vargas-Ángel B, Thomas JD, Hoke SM (2003) High-latitude Acropora cervicornis thickets off Fort Lauderdale, Florida, USA. Coral Reefs, 22, 465-473.
93. Vergara SG, McManus JW, Kesner-Reyes KN et al. (2000) ReefBase 2000: Improving Policies for Sustainable Management of Coral Reefs, ver. 2000. International Centre for Living Aquatic Resources Management, Manila, Philippines.
94. Veron J (1992) Environmental control of Holocene changes to the world's most northern hermatypic coral outcrop. Pacific Science, 46, 402-425.
95. Veron JEN, Minchin PR (1992) Correlations between sea-surface temperature, circulation patterns and the distribution of hermatypic corals of Japan. Continental Shelf Research, 12, 835-857.
96. 2. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 58, 1428-1436.
97. Weaver AJ, Eby M, Wiebe EC et al. (2001) The UVic Earth System Climate Model: model description, climatology, and applications to past, present and future climates. Atmosphere-Ocean, 39, 361-428.
98. Webber BL, Yates CJ, Le Maitre DC et al. (2011) Modelling horses for novel climate courses: insights from projecting potential distributions of native and alien Australian acacias with correlative and mechanistic models. Diversity and Distributions, 17, 978-1000.
99. Wiens JA, Stralberg D, Jongsomjit D, Howell CA, Snyder MA (2009) Niches, models, and climate change: assessing the assumptions and uncertainties. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, 19729-19736.
100. Wilson PD, Downey PO, Leishman M, Gallagher R, Hughes L, O'donnell J (2009) Weeds in a warmer world: predicting the impact of climate change on Australia's alien plant species using MaxEnt. Plant Protection Quarterly, 24, 84-87.
101. Wood S, Paris CB, Ridgwell A, Hendy EJ (2013) Modeling dispersal and connectivity of broadcast spawning corals at the global scale. Global Ecology and Biogeography, doi: 10.1111/geb.12101.
102. Woodroffe CD, Brooke BP, Linklater M et al. (2010) Response of coral reefs to climate change: expansion and demise of the southernmost Pacific coral reef. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L15602.
103. Yamano H, Sugihara K, Nomura K (2011) Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L04601.
104. Yara Y, Vogt M, Fujii M et al. (2012) Ocean acidification limits temperature-induced poleward expansion of coral habitats around Japan. Biogeosciences, 9, 4955-4968.
105. Zamagni J, Mutti M, Kosir A (2012) The evolution of mid Paleocene-early Eocene coral communities: how to survive during rapid global warming. Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology, 317, 48-65.