Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: Quantifying limits to predictability

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 8, Issue 3, 2013, Pages

  Koehler, Ann Kristin ^a,b   Challinor, Andrew J ^a,b   Hawkins, Ed ^c   Asseng, Senthold ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

^b CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^d University of Florida   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CROPS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

CROP DEVELOPMENT; DEVELOPMENT RATE; INCREASING TEMPERATURES; LETHAL TEMPERATURE; MODEL CONFIGURATION; MODEL UNCERTAINTIES; SIMULATION MODEL; TEMPERATURE-INDUCED;

CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CROP IMPROVEMENT; CROP YIELD; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; PARAMETERIZATION; SIMULATION; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WHEAT;

INDIA;

TRITICUM AESTIVUM;

EID: 84885618193     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034016     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. IPCC 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4) (Geneva: IPCC)
2. Singh S and Mustard A 2012 India Grain and Feed Annual Grain Report Number IN2026 (Washington, DC: USDA Foreign Agricultural Services)
3. Lobell D B, Schlenker W and Costa-Roberts J 2011 Climate trends and global crop production since 1980 Science 333 616-20
4. Tebaldi C and Knutti R 2010 Climate models and their projections of future changes Climate Change and Food Security: Adapting Agriculture to a Warmer World (Advances in Global Change vol 37) ed D Lobell and M Burke (Berlin: Springer) pp 31-83
5. Wheeler T R, Craufurd P Q, Ellis R H, Porter J R and Vara Prasad P V 2000 Temperature variability and the yield of annual crops Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 82 159-67
6. Ferris R, Ellis R H, Wheeler T R and Hadley P 1998 Effect of high temperature stress at anthesis on grain yield and biomass of field-grown crops of wheat Ann. Bot. 82 631-9 (Pubitemid 28532053)
7. Fischer R A 1980 Influence of water stress on crop yield in semiarid regions Adaptation of Plants to Water and High Temperature Stress ed N C Turner and P J Kramer (New York: Wiley) pp 323-39
8. Zhao H, Dai T B, Jing Q, Jiang D and Cao W X 2007 Leaf senescence and grain filling affected by post-anthesis high temperatures in two different wheat cultivars Plant Growth Regul. 51 149-58
9. Shah N H and Paulsen G M 2003 Interaction of drought and high temperatures on photosynthesis and grain-filling of wheat Plant Soil 257 219-26 (Pubitemid 37457895)
10. Porter J R and Gawith M 1999 Temperatures and the growth and development of wheat: a review Eur. J. Agron. 10 23-36 (Pubitemid 29083557)
11. Yin X, Kropff M J, McLaren G and Visperas R M 1995 A nonlinear model for crop development as a function of temperature Agric. For. Meteorol. 77 1-16 (Pubitemid 3000121)
12. McMaster G S, White J W, Hunt L A, Jamieson P D, Dhillon S S and Ortiz-Monasterio J I 2008 Simulating the influence of vernalization, photoperiod and optimum temperature on wheat developmental rates Ann. Bot. 102 561-9
13. Li L, McMaster G S, Yu Q and Du J 2008 Simulating winter wheat development response to temperature: modifying Malo's exponential sine equation Comput. Electron. Agric. 63 274-81
14. Lobell D B, Sibley A and Ortiz-Monasterio J I 2012 Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India Nature Clim. Change 2 186-9
15. Asseng S, Foster I A N and Turner N C 2011 The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields Glob. Change Biol. 17 997-1012
16. Drozdov S N, Titov A F, Balagurova N I and Kritenko S P 1984 The effect of temperature on cold and heat resistance of growing plants II. Cold resistant species J. Exp. Bot. 35 1603-8
17. Hawkins E, Osborne T M, Ho C K and Challinor A J 2013 Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: an idealised case study over Europe Agric. For. Meteorol. 170 19-31
18. Ho C K, Stephenson D B, Collins M, Ferro C A T and Brown S J 2012 Calibration strategies: a source of additional uncertainty in climate change projections Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93 21-6
19. Hawkins E, Fricker T E, Challinor A J, Ferro C A T, Ho C K and Osborne T M 2013 Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s Glob. Change Biol. 19 937-47
20. Challinor A J, Wheeler T R, Craufurd P Q and Slingo J M 2005 Simulation of the impact of high temperature stress on annual crop yields Agric. For. Meteorol. 135 180-9 (Pubitemid 43265840)
21. Challinor A J, Wheeler T R, Craufurd P Q, Slingo J M and Grimes D I F 2004 Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops Agric. For. Meteorol. 124 99-120 (Pubitemid 38791632)
22. Collins M et al 2010 Climate model errors, feedbacks and forcings: a comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles Clim. Dyn. 36 1737-66
23. Li S 2008 Investigating the impacts of climate change on wheat in China PhD Thesis
24. White J W, Kimball B A, Wall G W and Ottman M J 2012 Cardinal temperatures for wheat leaf appearance as assessed from varied sowing dates and infrared warming Field Crops Res. 137 213-20
25. Sacks W J, Deryng D, Foley J A and Ramankutty N 2010 Crop planting dates: an analysis of global patterns Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 19 607-20
26. Hawkins E and Sutton R 2009 The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 90 1095-107
27. Asseng S et al 2013 Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change Nature Clim. Change at press (doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1916)
28. Zhang T, Zhu J and Yang X 2008 Non-stationary thermal time accumulation reduces the predictability of climate change effects on agriculture Agric. For. Meteorol. 148 1412-8
29. van Oort P A J, Zhang T, de Vries M E, Heinemann A B and Meinke H 2011 Correlation between temperature and phenology prediction error in rice (Oryza sativa L.) Agric. For. Meteorol. 151 1545-55
30. Lobell D B 2013 Errors in climate datasets and their effects on statistical crop models Agric. For. Meteorol. 170 58-66
31. Watson J and Challinor A 2013 The relative importance of rainfall, temperature and yield data for a regional-scale crop model Agric. For. Meteorol. 170 47-57
32. Rosenzweig C et al 2013 The agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project (AgMIP): protocols and pilot studies Agric. For. Meteorol. 170 166-82
33. 2 climates Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 360 2085-94 (Pubitemid 46696774)
34. Challinor A J, Wheeler T, Hemming D and Upadhyaya H D 2009 Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change Clim. Res. 38 117-27
35. Gouache D, Bensadoun A, Brun F, Pagé C, Makowski D and Wallach D 2013 Modelling climate change impact on Septoria tritici blotch (STB) in France: accounting for climate model and disease model uncertainty Agric. For. Meteorol. 170 242-52
36. Ruane A C et al 2013 Climate change impact uncertainties for maize in Panama: farm information, climate projections, and yield sensitivities Agric. For. Meteorol. 170 132-45
37. Osborne T, Rose G and Wheeler T 2013 Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation Agric. For. Meteorol. 170 183-94
38. Poulter B et al 2010 Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters Glob. Change Biol. 16 2476-95
39. 2 stimulation of water-stressed and well-watered crops Agric. For. Meteorol. 148 1062-77
40. Challinor A J and Wheeler T R 2008 Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: processes and uncertainties Agric. For. Meteorol. 148 343-56 (Pubitemid 351308087)
41. Lobell D B, Ortiz-Monasterio J I, Sibley A M and Sohu V S 2013 Satellite detection of earlier wheat sowing in India and implications for yield trends Agric. Syst. 115 137-43
42. Ramirez-Villegas J and Challinor A 2012 Assessing relevant climate data for agricultural applications Agric. For. Meteorol. 161 26-45
43. Craufurd P Q, Vadez V, Jagadish S V K, Prasad P V V and Zaman-Allah M 2013 Crop science experiments designed to inform crop modeling Agric. For. Meteorol. 170 8-18