메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 4, Issue , 2011, Pages 2844-2859

Making business predictions by combining human and machine intelligence in prediction markets

Author keywords

Artificial intelligence; Business intelligence; Collective intelligence; Decision making makers; Decision support systems (DSS); Enterprise 2.0; Forecasting; Forecasts and implications; Intelligent systems; Prediction markets; Predictive modeling; Track 10. human computer interaction; Track 16. knowledge management and business intelligence; Track 18. e business

Indexed keywords

BUSINESS-INTELLIGENCE; COLLECTIVE-INTELLIGENCE; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (DSS); EBUSINESS; ENTERPRISE 2.0; PREDICTION MARKETS; PREDICTIVE MODELING;

EID: 84884626454     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: None     Document Type: Conference Paper
Times cited : (45)

References (76)
  • 1
    • 0342505598 scopus 로고
    • Combining Forecasts: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?
    • Armstrong, J.S. 1989. "Combining Forecasts: The End of the Beginning or the Beginning of the End?," International Journal of Forecasting (5), pp. 585-588.
    • (1989) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.5 , pp. 585-588
    • Armstrong, J.S.1
  • 3
    • 4043111483 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts' Rules for Forecasting
    • S. Armstrong (ed.). Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers
    • Armstrong, J.S. 2001b. "Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts' Rules for Forecasting," in Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, J.S. Armstrong (ed.). Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
    • (2001) Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook For Researchers and Practitioners
    • Armstrong, J.S.1
  • 6
    • 0001166456 scopus 로고
    • Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model+ 50% Manager
    • Blattberg, R.C., and Hoch, S.J. 1990. "Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model+ 50% Manager," Management Science (36:8), pp. 887-899.
    • (1990) Management Science , vol.36 , Issue.8 , pp. 887-899
    • Blattberg, R.C.1    Hoch, S.J.2
  • 8
    • 0003010182 scopus 로고
    • Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability
    • Brier, G.W. 1950. "Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability," Monthly Weather Review (78:1), pp. 1-3.
    • (1950) Monthly Weather Review , vol.78 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-3
    • Brier, G.W.1
  • 9
    • 0003924296 scopus 로고
    • 2nd ed.). New York, NY: Free Press
    • Brown, R. 1986. Social Psychology, (2nd ed.). New York, NY: Free Press.
    • (1986) Social Psychology
    • Brown, R.1
  • 10
    • 84935413018 scopus 로고
    • Interaction of Judgemental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues and Analysis
    • May
    • Bunn, D., and Wright, G. 1991. "Interaction of Judgemental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues and Analysis," Management Science (37:5), May, pp. 501-518.
    • (1991) Management Science , vol.37 , Issue.5 , pp. 501-518
    • Bunn, D.1    Wright, G.2
  • 13
    • 77954750020 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A New Understanding of Prediction Markets Via No-Regret Learning
    • Cambridge, MA: ACM
    • Chen, Y., and Vaughan, J.W. 2010. "A New Understanding of Prediction Markets Via No-Regret Learning," 11th ACM conference on Electronic Commerce (EC '10), Cambridge, MA: ACM, pp. 189-198.
    • (2010) 11th ACM Conference On Electronic Commerce (EC '10) , pp. 189-198
    • Chen, Y.1    Vaughan, J.W.2
  • 14
    • 45249128876 scopus 로고
    • Combining Forecasts: A Review and Annotated Bibliography
    • Clemen, R.T. 1989. "Combining Forecasts: A Review and Annotated Bibliography," InternationalJournal of Forecasting (5:4), pp. 559-583.
    • (1989) InternationalJournal of Forecasting , vol.5 , Issue.4 , pp. 559-583
    • Clemen, R.T.1
  • 16
    • 0024981793 scopus 로고
    • Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment
    • Dawes, R.M., Faust D, and Meehl P.E, 1989. "Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment," Science (243:4899), pp. 1668-1674.
    • (1989) Science , vol.243 , Issue.4899 , pp. 1668-1674
    • Dawes, R.M.1    Faust, D.2    Meehl, P.E.3
  • 18
    • 0023710206 scopus 로고
    • Comparing the Areas under Two or More Correlated Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves: A Nonparametric Approach
    • DeLong, E.R, DeLong D.M, and Clarke-Pearson DL, 1988. "Comparing the Areas under Two or More Correlated Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves: A Nonparametric Approach," Biometrics (44:3),pp. 837-845.
    • (1988) Biometrics , vol.44 , Issue.3 , pp. 837-845
    • DeLong, E.R.1    DeLong, D.M.2    Clarke-Pearson, D.L.3
  • 23
    • 0000044792 scopus 로고
    • Man Versus Model of Man: A Rationale, Plus Some Evidence, for a Method of Improving on Clinical Inferences
    • Goldberg LR, 1970. "Man Versus Model of Man: A Rationale, Plus Some Evidence, for a Method of Improving on Clinical Inferences," Psychological Bulletin (73:6), pp. 422-432.
    • (1970) Psychological Bulletin , vol.73 , Issue.6 , pp. 422-432
    • Goldberg, L.R.1
  • 27
    • 0001073135 scopus 로고
    • The Use of Knowledge in Society
    • Hayek FA, 1945. "The Use of Knowledge in Society," The American Economic Review (35:4), pp. 519-530.
    • (1945) The American Economic Review , vol.35 , Issue.4 , pp. 519-530
    • Hayek, F.A.1
  • 28
    • 11944258430 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • To Combine or Not to Combine: Selecting among Forecasts and Their Combinations
    • Hibon, M., and Evgeniou, T. 2005. "To Combine or Not to Combine: Selecting among Forecasts and Their Combinations," International Journal of Forecasting (21:1), pp. 15-24.
    • (2005) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.21 , Issue.1 , pp. 15-24
    • Hibon, M.1    Evgeniou, T.2
  • 30
    • 35348820216 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using Forecasting Markets to Manage Demand Risk
    • Hopman, J. 2007. "Using Forecasting Markets to Manage Demand Risk," Intel Technology Journal (11), pp. 127-136.
    • (2007) Intel Technology Journal , vol.11 , pp. 127-136
    • Hopman, J.1
  • 35
    • 58149417364 scopus 로고
    • On the Psychology of Prediction
    • Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. 1973. "On the Psychology of Prediction," Psychological review (80:4), pp. 237-251.
    • (1973) Psychological Review , vol.80 , Issue.4 , pp. 237-251
    • Kahneman, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 37
    • 0025422983 scopus 로고
    • Why We Still Use Our Heads Instead of Formulas: Toward an Integrative Approach
    • Kleinmuntz, B. 1990. "Why We Still Use Our Heads Instead of Formulas: Toward an Integrative Approach," Psychological Bulletin (107:3), pp. 296-310.
    • (1990) Psychological Bulletin , vol.107 , Issue.3 , pp. 296-310
    • Kleinmuntz, B.1
  • 39
  • 41
    • 0002941732 scopus 로고
    • Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art to 1980
    • D. Kahneman, P. Slovic and A. Tversky (eds.). Cambridge University Press
    • Lichtenstein, S., Baruch, F., and Phillips, L.D. 1982. "Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art to 1980," in Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, D. Kahneman, P. Slovic and A. Tversky (eds.). Cambridge University Press.
    • (1982) Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
    • Lichtenstein, S.1    Baruch, F.2    Phillips, L.D.3
  • 44
    • 0020824169 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results
    • Makridakis S, and Winkler RL, 1983. "Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results," Management Science), pp. 987-996.
    • Management Science , pp. 987-996
    • Makridakis, S.1    Winkler, R.L.2
  • 45
    • 1842483407 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bringing the Market Inside
    • Malone, T.W. 2004. "Bringing the Market Inside," Harvard Business Review (82:4), pp. 106-114.
    • (2004) Harvard Business Review , vol.82 , Issue.4 , pp. 106-114
    • Malone, T.W.1
  • 49
    • 0000918735 scopus 로고
    • A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score
    • Murphy A.H. 1973. "A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score," Journal of Applied Meteorology (12:4), pp. 595-600.
    • (1973) Journal of Applied Meteorology , vol.12 , Issue.4 , pp. 595-600
    • Murphy, A.H.1
  • 50
    • 0023486961 scopus 로고
    • A General Framework for Forecast Verification
    • Murphy, A.H., and Winkler, R. 1987. "A General Framework for Forecast Verification," Monthly Weather Review (115:7), pp. 1330-1338.
    • (1987) Monthly Weather Review , vol.115 , Issue.7 , pp. 1330-1338
    • Murphy, A.H.1    Winkler, R.2
  • 51
    • 0002566236 scopus 로고
    • Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature
    • Murphy, A.H., and Winkler, R.L. 1977. "Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature," Applied Statistics, pp. 41-47.
    • (1977) Applied Statistics , pp. 41-47
    • Murphy, A.H.1    Winkler, R.L.2
  • 54
    • 67649971029 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Information Market-Based Decision Fusion
    • Perols J., Chari K, and Agrawal M, 2009. "Information Market-Based Decision Fusion," Management Science (55:5), pp. 827-842.
    • (2009) Management Science , vol.55 , Issue.5 , pp. 827-842
    • Perols, J.1    Chari, K.2    Agrawal, M.3
  • 55
    • 0002309280 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Psychology and Economics
    • March
    • Rabin, M. 1996. "Psychology and Economics," Journal of Economic Literature (36:1), March, pp. 11-46.
    • (1996) Journal of Economic Literature , vol.36 , Issue.1 , pp. 11-46
    • Rabin, M.1
  • 57
    • 0001752951 scopus 로고
    • Mutual Fund Performance
    • Sharpe, W.F. 1966. "Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of business (39:1), pp. 119-138.
    • (1966) Journal of Business , vol.39 , Issue.1 , pp. 119-138
    • Sharpe, W.F.1
  • 59
    • 58149196360 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sports Forecasting: A Comparison of the Forecast Accuracy of Prediction Markets, Betting Odds and Tipsters
    • Spann, M., and Skiera, B. 2009. "Sports Forecasting: A Comparison of the Forecast Accuracy of Prediction Markets, Betting Odds and Tipsters," Journal of Forecasting (28:1), pp. 55-72.
    • (2009) Journal of Forecasting , vol.28 , Issue.1 , pp. 55-72
    • Spann, M.1    Skiera, B.2
  • 61
  • 65
    • 0015731803 scopus 로고
    • The Relative Operating Characteristic in Psychology
    • Swets JA, 1973. "The Relative Operating Characteristic in Psychology," Science (182:4116), pp. 990-1000.
    • (1973) Science , vol.182 , Issue.4116 , pp. 990-1000
    • Swets, J.A.1
  • 66
    • 0023890867 scopus 로고
    • Measuring the Accuracy of Diagnostic Systems
    • Swets, JA. 1988. "Measuring the Accuracy of Diagnostic Systems," Science (240:4857), pp. 1285-1293.
    • (1988) Science , vol.240 , Issue.4857 , pp. 1285-1293
    • Swets, J.A.1
  • 68
    • 84997479670 scopus 로고
    • Managerial Applications of Neural Networks: The Case of Bank Failure Predictions
    • Tarn K.Y, and Kiang MY, 1992. "Managerial Applications of Neural Networks: The Case of Bank Failure Predictions," Management Science (38:7), pp. 926-947.
    • (1992) Management Science , vol.38 , pp. 926-947
    • Tarn, K.Y.1    Kiang, M.Y.2
  • 70
    • 58149201969 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prediction Markets: An Extended Literature Review
    • Tziralis G, and Tatsiopoulos I, 2007. "Prediction Markets: An Extended Literature Review," Journal of Prediction Markets (1:1), pp. 75-91.
    • (2007) Journal of Prediction Markets , vol.1 , Issue.1 , pp. 75-91
    • Tziralis, G.1    Tatsiopoulos, I.2
  • 71
    • 0011680015 scopus 로고
    • Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors
    • September
    • Winkler, R.L. 1969. "Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors," Journal of the American Statistical Association (64:327), September, pp. 1073-1078.
    • (1969) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.64 , Issue.327 , pp. 1073-1078
    • Winkler, R.L.1
  • 72
    • 0000520054 scopus 로고
    • Combining Forecasts: A Philosophical Basis and Some Current Issues
    • Winkler RL, 1989. "Combining Forecasts: A Philosophical Basis and Some Current Issues," International Journal of Forecasting (5:4), pp. 605-609.
    • (1989) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.5 , Issue.4 , pp. 605-609
    • Winkler, R.L.1
  • 75
    • 46549096780 scopus 로고
    • Automate/Informate: The Two Faces of Intelligent Technology
    • Zuboff S, 1985. "Automate/Informate: The Two Faces of Intelligent Technology," Organizational Dynamics (14:2), pp. 5-18.
    • (1985) Organizational Dynamics , vol.14 , Issue.2 , pp. 5-18
    • Zuboff, S.1
  • 76
    • 0027457620 scopus 로고
    • Receiver-Operating Characteristic (Roc) Plots: A Fundamental Evaluation Tool in Clinical Medicine
    • Zweig, M.H., and Campbell, G 1993. "Receiver-Operating Characteristic (Roc) Plots: A Fundamental Evaluation Tool in Clinical Medicine," Clinical Chemistry (39:4), pp. 561-577.
    • (1993) Clinical Chemistry , vol.39 , Issue.4 , pp. 561-577
    • Zweig, M.H.1    Campbell, G.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.