메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn , Issue , 2010, Pages 189-198

A new understanding of prediction markets via no-regret learning

Author keywords

follow the regularized leader; market scoring rules; online learning; prediction markets; prediction with expert advice

Indexed keywords

CONVEX COST FUNCTION; EXPERT ADVICE; LEARNING PROBLEM; LEARNING SETTINGS; LOGARITHMIC MARKET SCORING RULE; MARKET-MAKER; ONLINE LEARNING; PREDICTION MARKETS; PREDICTION WITH EXPERT ADVICE; REGULARIZER; SCORING RULES;

EID: 77954750020     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: 10.1145/1807342.1807372     Document Type: Conference Paper
Times cited : (75)

References (35)
  • 1
    • 77954706512 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A unified framework for dynamic pari-mutuel information market design
    • S. Agrawal, E. Delage, M. Peters, Z.Wang, and Y. Ye. A unified framework for dynamic pari-mutuel information market design. In ACM EC, 2009.
    • (2009) ACM EC
    • Agrawal, S.1    Delage, E.2    Peters, M.3    Wang, Z.4    Ye, Y.5
  • 2
    • 0003010182 scopus 로고
    • Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
    • G. Brier. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Monthly Weather Review, 78(1):1-3, 1950.
    • (1950) Monthly Weather Review , vol.78 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-3
    • Brier, G.1
  • 5
    • 80053191054 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A utility framework for bounded-loss market makers
    • Y. Chen and D. M. Pennock. A utility framework for bounded-loss market makers. In UAI, 2007.
    • (2007) UAI
    • Chen, Y.1    Pennock, D.M.2
  • 7
    • 77954720282 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pricing combinatorial markets for tournaments
    • Y. Chen, S. Goel, and D. M. Pennock. Pricing combinatorial markets for tournaments. In ACM STOC, 2008.
    • (2008) ACM STOC
    • Chen, Y.1    Goel, S.2    Pennock, D.M.3
  • 8
    • 0038551367 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Convex measures of risk and trading constraints
    • H. Föllmer and A. Schied. Convex measures of risk and trading constraints. Finance and Stochastics, 6(4), 2002.
    • (2002) Finance and Stochastics , vol.6 , Issue.4
    • Föllmer, H.1    Schied, A.2
  • 9
    • 0031211090 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A decision-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting
    • Y. Freund and R. Schapire. A decision-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting. Journal of Comp. and System Sciences, 55(1):119-139, 1997.
    • (1997) Journal of Comp. and System Sciences , vol.55 , Issue.1 , pp. 119-139
    • Freund, Y.1    Schapire, R.2
  • 14
    • 0001976283 scopus 로고
    • Approximation to Bayes risk in repeated play
    • M. Dresher, A. W. Tucker, and P. Wolfe, editors, Princeton University Press, Princeton
    • J. Hannan. Approximation to Bayes risk in repeated play. In M. Dresher, A. W. Tucker, and P. Wolfe, editors, Contributions to the Theory of Games, Volume III, pages 97-139. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1957.
    • (1957) Contributions to the Theory of Games , vol.3 , pp. 97-139
    • Hannan, J.1
  • 15
    • 0037258594 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Combinatorial information market design
    • R. Hanson. Combinatorial information market design. Information Systems Frontiers, 5(1):105-119, 2003.
    • (2003) Information Systems Frontiers , vol.5 , Issue.1 , pp. 105-119
    • Hanson, R.1
  • 16
    • 38449094322 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Logarithmic market scoring rules for modular combinatorial information aggregation
    • R. Hanson. Logarithmic market scoring rules for modular combinatorial information aggregation. Journal of Prediction Markets, 1(1):3-15, 2007.
    • (2007) Journal of Prediction Markets , vol.1 , Issue.1 , pp. 3-15
    • Hanson, R.1
  • 18
    • 77951677966 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extracting certainty from uncertainty: Regret bounded by variation in costs
    • E. Hazan and S. Kale. Extracting certainty from uncertainty: Regret bounded by variation in costs. In COLT, 2008.
    • (2008) COLT
    • Hazan, E.1    Kale, S.2
  • 19
    • 35348918820 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Logarithmic regret algorithms for online convex optimization
    • DOI 10.1007/s10994-007-5016-8, Special Issue on COLT 2006; Guest Editors: Avrim Blum, Gabor Lugosi and Hans Ulrich Simon
    • E. Hazan, A. Agarwal, and S. Kale. Logarithmic regret algorithms for online convex optimization. Machine Learning, 69(2-3):169-192, 2007. (Pubitemid 47574314)
    • (2007) Machine Learning , vol.69 , Issue.2-3 , pp. 169-192
    • Hazan, E.1    Agarwal, A.2    Kale, S.3
  • 20
    • 68949098503 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Learning permutations with exponential weights
    • D. Helmbold and M. Warmuth. Learning permutations with exponential weights. JMLR, 10:1705-1736, 2009.
    • (2009) JMLR , vol.10 , pp. 1705-1736
    • Helmbold, D.1    Warmuth, M.2
  • 21
    • 21844465698 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Adaptive online prediction by following the perturbed leader
    • M. Hutter and J. Poland. Adaptive online prediction by following the perturbed leader. JMLR, 6:639-660, 2005.
    • (2005) JMLR , vol.6 , pp. 639-660
    • Hutter, M.1    Poland, J.2
  • 23
    • 0008774167 scopus 로고
    • Differentiability of the value function: A new characterization
    • T. Kim. Differentiability of the value function: A new characterization. Seoul Journal of Economics, 6(3), 1993.
    • (1993) Seoul Journal of Economics , vol.6 , Issue.3
    • Kim, T.1
  • 24
    • 0008815681 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exponentiated gradient versus gradient descent for linear predictors
    • J. Kivinen and M. Warmuth. Exponentiated gradient versus gradient descent for linear predictors. Journal of Information and Computation, 132(1):1-63, 1997.
    • (1997) Journal of Information and Computation , vol.132 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-63
    • Kivinen, J.1    Warmuth, M.2
  • 25
    • 0000723412 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Averaging expert predictions
    • J. Kivinen and M. Warmuth. Averaging expert predictions. In EuroCOLT, 1999.
    • (1999) EuroCOLT
    • Kivinen, J.1    Warmuth, M.2
  • 26
    • 77954737593 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Eliciting properties of probability distributions
    • N. Lambert, D. M. Pennock, and Y. Shoham. Eliciting properties of probability distributions. In ACM EC, 2008.
    • (2008) ACM EC
    • Lambert, N.1    Pennock, D.M.2    Shoham, Y.3
  • 28
    • 35148838877 scopus 로고
    • The weighted majority algorithm
    • N. Littlestone and M. Warmuth. The weighted majority algorithm. Info. and Computation, 108(2):212-261, 1994.
    • (1994) Info. and Computation , vol.108 , Issue.2 , pp. 212-261
    • Littlestone, N.1    Warmuth, M.2
  • 29
    • 0036212678 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets
    • P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583-601, 2002.
    • (2002) Econometrica , vol.70 , Issue.2 , pp. 583-601
    • Milgrom, P.1    Segal, I.2
  • 30
    • 77954740038 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A dynamic pari-mutuel market for hedging, wagering, and information aggregation
    • D. M. Pennock. A dynamic pari-mutuel market for hedging, wagering, and information aggregation. In ACM EC, 2004.
    • (2004) ACM EC
    • Pennock, D.M.1
  • 31
    • 84926089190 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Computational aspects of prediction markets
    • N. Nisan, T. Roughgarden, É. Tardos, and V. Vazirani, editors, Cambridge University Press
    • D. M. Pennock and R. Sami. Computational aspects of prediction markets. In N. Nisan, T. Roughgarden, É. Tardos, and V. Vazirani, editors, Algorithmic Game Theory. Cambridge University Press, 2007.
    • (2007) Algorithmic Game Theory
    • Pennock, D.M.1    Sami, R.2
  • 32
    • 71149121122 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Surrogate regret bounds for proper losses
    • M. D. Reid and R. C. Williamson. Surrogate regret bounds for proper losses. In ICML, 2009.
    • (2009) ICML
    • Reid, M.D.1    Williamson, R.C.2
  • 33
    • 84950658032 scopus 로고
    • Elicitation of personal probabilities and expectations
    • L. J. Savage. Elicitation of personal probabilities and expectations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 66 (336):783-801, 1971.
    • (1971) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.66 , Issue.336 , pp. 783-801
    • Savage, L.J.1
  • 34
    • 35348915372 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A primal-dual perspective of online learning algorithms
    • DOI 10.1007/s10994-007-5014-x, Special Issue on COLT 2006; Guest Editors: Avrim Blum, Gabor Lugosi and Hans Ulrich Simon
    • S. Shalev-Shwartz and Y. Singer. A primal-dual perspective of online learning algorithms. Machine Learning, 69(2-3): 115-142, 2007. (Pubitemid 47574312)
    • (2007) Machine Learning , vol.69 , Issue.2-3 , pp. 115-142
    • Shalev-Shwartz, S.1    Singer, Y.2
  • 35
    • 1942484421 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Online convex programming and generalized infinitesimal gradient ascent
    • M. Zinkevich. Online convex programming and generalized infinitesimal gradient ascent. In ICML, 2003.
    • (2003) ICML
    • Zinkevich, M.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.