Does functional type vulnerability to multiple threats depend on spatial context in mediterranean-climate regions?

Diversity and Distributions

Volumn 19, Issue 10, 2013, Pages 1263-1274

  Syphard, Alexandra D ^a   Regan, Helen M ^b   Franklin, Janet ^c   Swab, Rebecca M ^b   Bonebrake, Timothy C ^b,d  

^a Conservation Biology Institute ^*  (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG   (Hong Kong)

Author keywords

Altered fire regimes; Biodiversity; Climate change; Global change; Land use change; Obligate seeder; Population model; Southern California; Species distribution model

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT; DISTURBANCE; FIRE; GLOBAL CHANGE; HABITAT; LAND USE CHANGE; LIFE HISTORY TRAIT; SEEDING; SHRUB; URBAN DEVELOPMENT; URBAN GROWTH; VULNERABILITY;

CALIFORNIA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84883654025     PISSN: 13669516     EISSN: 14724642     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12076     Document Type: Article

References (67)

1. Akçakaya, H.R., Butchart, S.H.M., Mace, G.M., Stuart, S.N. & Hilton-Taylor, C. (2006) Use and misuse of the IUCN Red List Criteria in projecting climate change impacts on biodiversity. Global Change Biology, 12, 2037-2043.
2. Austin, M.P. (2002) Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling. Ecological Modelling, 157, 101-118.
3. Bachelet, D., Lenihan, J.M., Daly, C., Neilson, R.P., Ojima, D.S. & Parton, W.J. (2001) MC1: dynamic vegetation model for estimating the distribution of vegetation and associated carbon, nutrients, and water: technical documentation. Version 1.0. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, OR.
4. Baldwin, B.G., Goldman, D.H., Keil, D.J., Patterson, R. & Rosatti, T.J. (eds) (2012) The Jepson Manual: Vascular Plants of California, 2nd edn. University of California Press, Berkeley, USA
5. Beaumont, L.J., Hughes, L. & Pitman, A.J. (2008) Why is the choice of future climate scenarios for species distribution modelling important? Ecology Letters, 11, 1135-1146.
6. Bradstock, R.A. & Kenny, B.J. (2003) An application of plant functional types to fire management in a conservation reserve in southeastern Australia. Journal of Vegetation Science, 14, 345-354.
7. Brook, B.W., Akçakaya, H.R., Keith, D.A., Mace, G.M., Pearson, R.G. & Araújo, M.B. (2009) Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change. Biology Letters, 5, 723-725.
8. Cayan, D.R., Maurer, E.P., Dettinger, M.D., Tyree, M. & Hayhoe, K. (2008) Climate change scenarios for the California region. Climatic Change, 87, S21-S42.
9. Clarke, K.C. (2008) A decade of cellular urban modeling with SLEUTH. Planning support systems for cities and regions (ed. by R.K. Brail ), pp. 47-60. Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, Cambridge, MA.
10. Davey, J.R. (1982) Stand replacement in Ceanothus crassifolius. California State Polytechnic University, Pomona.
11. Davis, S.D., Ewers, F.W., Wood, J., Reeves, J. & Kolb, K.J. (1999) Differential susceptibility to xylem cavitation among three pairs of Ceanothus species in the transverse mountain ranges of southern California. Ecoscience, 6, 180-186.
12. Elith, J., Graham, C.H., Anderson, R.P. et al. (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography, 29, 129-151.
13. Elith, J., Phillips, S.J., Hastie, T., Dudík, M., Chee, Y.E. & Yates, C.J. (2011) A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Diversity & Distributions, 17, 43-57.
14. Flint, A.L. & Flint, L.E. (2012) Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecologic modeling and analysis. Ecological Processes, 1, 2. doi: 10.1186/2192-1709-1-2.
15. Franklin, J. (2010) Mapping species distributions: spatial inference and prediction. Cambridge University Press, New York.
16. Frazer, J.M. & Davis, S.D. (1988) Differential survival of chaparral seedlings during the first summer drought after wildfire. Oecologia, 76, 215-221.
17. Freeman, E.A. & Moisen, G.G. (2008) A comparison of the performance of threshold criteria for binary classification in terms of predicted prevalence. Ecological Modelling, 217, 48-58.
18. Gill, A.M. & Williams, J.E. (1996) Fire regimes and biodiversity: the effects of fragmentation of southeastern Australian eucalypt forests by urbanisation, agriculture and pine plantations. Forest Ecology and Management, 85, 261-278.
19. Gondard, H., Jauffret, S., Aronson, J. & Lavorel, S. (2003) Plant functional types: a promising tool for management and restoration of degraded lands. Applied Vegetation Science, 6, 223-234.
20. Haidinger, T.L. & Keeley, J.E. (1993) Role of high fire frequency in destruction of mixed chaparral. Madroño, 40, 141-147.
21. Heikkinen, R.K., Luoto, M., Araújo, M.B., Virkkala, R., Thuiller, W. & Sykes, M.T. (2006) Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change. Progress in Physical Geography, 30, 751-777.
22. Hickman, J.D. (ed.) (1993) The Jepson manual: higher plants of California. University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.
23. Keeley, J.E. (1977) Seed production, seed populations in soil, and seedling production after fire for two congeneric pairs of sprouting and non-sprouting chaparral shrubs. Ecology, 58, 820-829.
24. Keeley, J.E. & Zedler, P.A. (2009) Large, high intensity fire events in southern California shrublands: debunking the fine-grained age-patch model. Ecological Applications, 19, 69-94.
25. Keeley, J.E., Fotheringham, C.J. & Morais, M. (1999) Reexamining fire suppression impacts on brushland fire regimes. Science, 284, 1829-1832.
26. Keeley, J.E., Fotheringham, C.J. & Baer-Keeley, M. (2006) Demographic patterns of postfire regeneration in Mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. Ecological Monographs, 76, 235-255.
27. Keeley, J.E., Bond, W.J., Bradstock, R.A., Pausas, J.G. & Rundel, P.W. (2012) Fire in Mediterranean ecosystems ecology, evolution and management. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
28. Keith, D.A., Akçakaya, H.R., Thuiller, W., Midgley, G.F., Pearson, R.G., Phillips, S.J., Regan, H.M., Araújo, M.B. & Rebelo, T.G. (2008) Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models. Biology Letters, 4, 560-563.
29. Keppel, G., Van Niel, K.P., Wardell-Johnson, G.W., Yates, C.J., Byrne, M., Mucina, L., Schut, A.G.T., Hopper, S.D. & Franklin, S.E. (2012) Refugia: identifying and understanding safe havens for biodiversity under climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21, 393-404.
30. Klausmeyer, K.R. & Shaw, M.R. (2009) Climate change, habitat loss, protected areas and the climate adaptation potential of species in Mediterranean ecosystems worldwide. PLoS ONE, 4, e6392.
31. Knapp, S., Kühn, I., Bakker, J.P., Kleyer, M., Klotz, S., Ozinga, W.A., Poschlod, P., Thompson, K., Thuiller, W. & Römermann, C. (2009) How species traits and affinity to urban land use control large-scale species frequency. Diversity and Distributions, 15, 533-546.
32. Lampin-Maillet, C., Jappiot, M., Long, M., Bouillon, C., Morge, D. & Ferrier, J.P. (2010) Mapping wildland-urban interfaces at large scales integrating housing density and vegetation aggregation for fire prevention in the South of France. Journal of Environmental Management, 91, 732-741.
33. Lavorel, S., Canadell, J., Rambal, S. & Terradas, J. (1998) Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems: research priorities on global change effects. Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters, 7, 157-166.
34. Lavorel, S., Díaz, S., Cornelissen, J., Garnier, E., Harrison, S., Mcintyre, S., Pausas, J., Pérez-Harguindeguy, N., Roumet, C. & Urcelay, C. (2007) Plant functional types: are we getting any closer to the Holy Grail? Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World, (ed. by J.G. Canadell, D. Pataki and L. Pitelka ) pp. 149-164. Springer, New York.
35. Lawson, D.M., Regan, H.M., Zedler, P.H. & Franklin, J. (2010) Cumulative effects of land use, altered fire regime and climate change on persistence of Ceanothus verrucosus, a rare, fire-dependent plant species. Global Change Biology, 16, 2518-2529.
36. Loarie, S.R., Duffy, P.B., Hamilton, H., Asner, G.P., Field, C.B. & Ackerly, D.D. (2009) The velocity of climate change. Nature, 462, 1052-1055.
37. McCarthy, M.A. & Thompson, C. (2001) Expected minimum population size as a measure of threat. Animal Conservation, 4, 351-355.
38. Médail, F. & Quézel, P. (1999) Biodiversity hotspots in the Mediterranean Basin: setting global conservation priorities. Conservation Biology, 13, 1510-1513.
39. Millington, J.D.A., Wainwright, J., Perry, G.L.W., Romero-Calcerrada, R. & Malamud, B.D. (2009) Modelling Mediterranean landscape succession-disturbance dynamics: a landscape fire-succession model. Environmental Modelling & Software, 24, 1196-1208.
40. Moriondo, M., Good, P., Durao, R., Bindi, M., Giannakopoulos, C. & Corte-Real, J. (2006) Potential impact of climate change on fire risk in the Mediterranean area. Climate Research, 31, 85-95.
41. Moritz, M.A. (2003) Spatiotemporal analysis of controls on shrubland fire regimes: age dependency and fire hazard. Ecology, 84, 351-361.
42. Mouillot, F., Rambal, S. & Joffre, R. (2002) Simulating climate change impacts on fire frequency and vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem. Global Change Biology, 8, 423-437.
43. Noble, I.R. & Gitay, H. (1996) A functional classification for predicting the dynamics of landscapes. Journal of Vegetation Science, 7, 329-336.
44. Pausas, J.G. (2003) The effect of landscape pattern on Mediterranean vegetation dynamics: a modelling approach using functional types. Journal of Vegetation Science, 14, 365-374.
45. Pausas, J.G. & Lloret, F. (2007) Spatial and temporal patterns of plant functional types under simulated fire regimes. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 16, 484-492.
46. Phillips, S.J. & Dudík, M. (2008) Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography, 31, 161-175.
47. Prieto, P., Peñuelas, J., Llusià, J., Asensio, D. & Estiarte, M. (2009) Effects of experimental warming and drought on biomass accumulation in a Mediterranean shrubland. Plant Ecology, 205, 179-191.
48. Prober, S.M., Thiele, K.R., Rundel, P.W., Yates, C.J., Berry, S.L., Byrne, M., Christidis, L., Gosper, C.R., Grierson, P.F., Lemson, K., Lyons, T., MacFarlane, C., O'Connor, M.H., Recher, H.F., Scott, J.K., Standish, R.J., Stock, W.D., van Etten, E.J.B., Wardell-Johnson, G.W. & Watson, A. (2012) Facilitating adaptation of biodiversity to climate change: a conceptual framework applied to the world's largest Mediterranean-climate woodland. Climatic Change, 110, 227-248.
49. Quinn, R.D. (1994) Animals, fire, and vertebrate herbivory in Californian chaparral and other Mediterranean-type ecosystems. The role of fire in Mediterranean-type ecosystems (ed. by J.M. Moreno and W.C. Oechel ), pp. 46-77. Springer-Verlag, New York.
50. Regan, H.M., Crookston, J.B., Swab, R., Franklin, J. & Lawson, D.M. (2010) Habitat fragmentation and altered fire regime create trade-offs for an obligate seeding shrub. Ecology, 91, 1114-1123.
51. Rusch, G.M., Pausas, J.G. & Leps, J. (2003) Plant functional types in relation to disturbance and land use: introduction. Journal of Vegetation Science, 14, 307-310.
52. Schmalbach, H.L. (2005) Effects of post-fire regeneration in the chaparral community at Sky Oaks Field Station. MS Thesis. San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, 48 pp.
53. Sork, V.L., Davis, F.W., Westfall, R., Flint, A., Ikegami, M., Wang, H.F. & Grivet, D. (2010) Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Nee) in the face of climate change. Molecular Ecology, 19, 3806-3823.
54. S&S Seeds (2011) Seed Selection Guide. Available at: http://www.ssseeds.com/media/218482/ssseeds_guide.pdf (accessed 5 March 2013).
55. Swab, R.M., Regan, H.M., Keith, D.A., Regan, T.J. & Ooi, M.K.J. (2012) Niche models tell half the story: spatial context and life-history traits influence species responses to global change. Journal of Biogeography, 39, 1266-1277.
56. Syphard, A.D. & Franklin, J. (2009) Differences in spatial predictions among species distribution modeling methods vary with species traits and environmental predictors. Ecography, 32, 907-918.
57. Syphard, A.D., Franklin, J. & Keeley, J.E. (2006) Simulating the effects of frequent fire on southern California coastal shrublands. Ecological Applications, 16, 1744-1756.
58. Syphard, A.D., Radeloff, V.C., Keeley, J.E., Hawbaker, T.J., Clayton, M.K., Stewart, S.I. & Hammer, R.B. (2007) Human influence on California fire regimes. Ecological Applications, 17, 1388-1402.
59. Syphard, A.D., Radeloff, V.C., Keuler, N.S., Taylor, R.S., Hawbaker, T.J., Stewart, S.I. & Clayton, M.K. (2008) Predicting spatial patterns of fire on a southern California landscape. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 17, 602.
60. Syphard, A.D., Radeloff, V.C., Hawbaker, T.J. & Stewart, S.I. (2009) Conservation threats due to human-caused increases in fire frequency in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. Conservation Biology, 23, 758-769.
61. Syphard, A.D., Clarke, K.C., Franklin, J., Regan, H.M. & McGinnis, M. (2011) Forecasts of habitat loss and fragmentation due to urban growth are sensitive to source of input data. Journal of Environmental Management, 92, 1882-1893.
62. Thomas, C.M. & Davis, S.D. (1989) Recovery patterns of three chaparral shrub species after wildfire. Oecologia, 80, 309-320.
63. Tyler, C.M. & D'Antonio, C.M. (1995) The effects of neighbors on the growth and survival of shrub seedlings following fire. Oecologia, 102, 255-264.
64. Underwood, E.C., Viers, J.H., Klausmeyer, K.R., Cox, R.L. & Shaw, M.R. (2009) Threats and biodiversity in the Mediterranean biome. Diversity & Distributions, 15, 188-197.
65. Yates, C.J., McNeill, A., Elith, J. & Midgley, G.F. (2010) Assessing the impacts of climate change and land transformation on Banksia in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region. Diversity and Distributions, 16, 187-201.
66. Zammit, C.A. & Zedler, P.H. (1993) Size structure and seed production in even-aged populations of Ceanothus greggii in mixed chaparral. Journal of Ecology, 81, 499-511.
67. Zedler, P.H., Clayton, R.G. & McMaster, G.S. (1983) Vegetation change in response to extreme events: the effect of a short interval between fires in California chaparral and coastal scrub. Ecology, 64, 809-818.