Population-level differences in disease transmission: A Bayesian analysis of multiple smallpox epidemics

Epidemics

Volumn 5, Issue 3, 2013, Pages 146-156

  Elderd, Bret D ^a   Dwyer, Greg ^b   Dukic, Vanja ^c  

^a LOUISIANA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian hierarchical models; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC); Smallpox Variola major; Spatial epidemic dynamics; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

AMERICAN INDIAN; ARTICLE; BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER; BAYES THEOREM; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; FOOD AVAILABILITY; HEREDITY; HUMAN; INFECTION CONTROL; MORTALITY; POPULATION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SMALLPOX; SOCIAL STRUCTURE; UNCERTAINTY; WATER AVAILABILITY;

BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODELS; MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO (MCMC); SMALLPOX VARIOLA MAJOR; SPATIAL EPIDEMIC DYNAMICS; UNCERTAINTY;

AFRICA; BAYES THEOREM; EPIDEMICS; EUROPE; HUMANS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; SMALLPOX; UNCERTAINTY; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84882250377     PISSN: 17554365     EISSN: 18780067     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2013.07.001     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Adams E.B., Chavez F.A. The Missions of New Mexico, 1776: A Description by Fray Francisco Atanasio Dominguez with Other Contemporary Documents 1956, University of New Mexico Press, Albuquerque.
2. Anderson D.E. The Epidemics of Mauritius 1918, Lewis, London.
3. Anderson R.M., May R.M. Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control 1991, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
4. Archivo General de Indias, S.I.G., 1778. Padrones de Cusiguríachic. Archivo General de Indias, Sección Indiferente General, Cusiguríachic, Mexico.
5. Bjørnstad O.N., Finkenstadt B.F., Grenfell B.T. Dynamics of measles epidemics: estimating scaling of transmission rates using a time series SIR model. Ecological Monographs 2002, 72:169-184.
6. Bolker B.M. Ecological Models and Data in R 2008, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
7. Bozzette S.A., Boer R., Bhatnagar V., Brower J.L., Keeler E.B., Morton S.C., Stoto M.A. A model for a smallpox-vaccination policy. New England Journal of Medicine 2003, 348:416-425.
8. Burnham K., Anderson D. Model Selection and Multimodal Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach 2002, Springer, New York.
9. Creighton C. A History of Epidemics in Britain 1891, vol. 2. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
10. Dukic V.M., Pena E.A. Variance estimation in a model with Gaussian submodels. Journal of the American Statistical Association 2005, 100:296-309.
11. Dushoff J. Host heterogeneity and disease endemicity: a moment-based approach. Theoretical Population Biology 1999, 56:325-335.
12. Dwyer G., Dushoff J., Elkinton J.S., Levin S.A. Pathogen-driven outbreaks in forest defoliators revisited: building models from experimental data. American Naturalist 2000, 156:105-120.
13. Dwyer G., Elkinton J.S., Buonaccorsi J.P. Host heterogeneity in susceptibility and disease dynamics: tests of a mathematical model. American Naturalist 1997, 150:685-707.
14. Eichner M. Case isolation and contact tracing can prevent the spread of smallpox. American Journal of Epidemiology 2003, 158:118-128.
15. Eichner M., Dietz K. Transmission potential of smallpox: estimates based on detailed data from an outbreak. American Journal of Epidemiology 2003, 158:110-117.
16. Elderd B.D., Dukic V.M., Dwyer G. Uncertainty in predictions of disease spread and public health responses to bioterrorism and emerging diseases. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2006, 103:15693-15697.
17. Elderd B.D., Dushoff J., Dwyer G. Host-pathogen dynamics, natural selection for disease resistance, and forest-defoliator outbreaks. American Naturalist 2008, 172:829-842.
18. Fenn E.A. Dissertation 1999, Yale University, New Haven, CT.
19. Fenner F., Henderson D.A., Arita I., Jezek Z., Ladnyi I.D. Smallpox and its Eradication 1998, WHO, Geneva.
20. Ferrari M.J., Grais R.F., Bharti N., Conlan A.J.K., Bjørnstad O.N., Wolfson L.J., Guerin P.J., Djibo A., Grenfell B.T. The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 2008, 451:679-684.
21. Finkenstädt B.F., Grenfell B.T. Time series modelling of childhood diseases: a dynamical systems approach. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 2000, 49:187-205.
22. Gani R., Leach S. Transmission potential of smallpox in contemporary populations. Nature 2001, 414:748-751.
23. Gelfand H.M., Posch J. Recent outbreak of smallpox in Meschede, West Germany. American Journal of Epidemiology 1971, 93:234-237.
24. Gelman A., Carlin J.B., Stern H.S., Rubin D.B. Bayesian Data Analysis 2003, Chapman and Hall, Boca Raton.
25. Giraldo J.O., Palacio D.H. Deterministic SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) models applied to varicella outbreaks. Epidemiology and Infection 2008, 136:679-687.
26. Grenfell B.T., Bolker B.M. Cities and villages: infection hierarchies in a measles metapopulation. Ecology Letters 1998, 1:63-70.
27. Halloran M.E., Longini I.M., Nizam A., Yang Y. Containing bioterrorist smallpox. Science 2002, 298:1428-1432.
28. Hethcote H.W. The mathematics of infectious diseases. SIAM Review 2000, 42:599-653.
29. Jackson R. Indian Population Decline: The Missions of Northwestern New Spain 1994, 1687-1840. Univ. of New Mexico Press, Albuquerque, NM.
30. Jackson R.H. The 1781-1782 smallpox epidemic of Baja California. Journal of California and Great Basin Anthropolology 1981, 3:138-143.
31. Jackson R.H. Demographic patterns in the missions of Northern Baja California. Journal of California and Great Basin Anthropolology 1983, 5:131-139.
32. Jewel C., Kypraios T., Neal P., Roberts G. Bayesian analysis for emerging infectious diseases. Bayesian Analysis 2009, 4:465-496.
33. Kaplan E.H., Craft D.L., Wein L.M. Emergency response to a smallpox attack: the case for mass vaccination. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences United States of America 2002, 99:10935-11094.
34. Keeling M.J., Grenfell B.T. Understanding the persistence of measles: reconciling theory, simulation and observation. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences 2002, 269:335-434.
35. Keeling M.J., Rohani P. Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals 2008, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
36. Keeling M.J., Woolhouse M.E.J., May R.M., Davies G., Grenfell B.T. Modelling vaccination strategies against foot-and-mouth disease. Nature 2003, 421:136-142.
37. Kermack W., McKendrick A. A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series A 1927, 115:700-772.
38. Litvinjenko S., Arsić B., Borjanović S. Epidemiologic aspects of smallpox in Yugoslavia in 1972. Technical Report SE/73. 57 1973, World Health Organization, Geneva.
39. Lloyd A. Estimating variability in models for recurrent epidemics: assessing the use of moment closure techniques. Theoretical Population Biology 2004, 65:49-65.
40. Mack T.M. Small pox in Europe, 1950-1971. Journal of Infectious Disease 1972, 125:161-169.
41. Mills C.E., Robins J.M., Lipsitch M. Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature 2004, 432:904-906.
42. Mossong J., Hens N., Jit M., Beutels P., Auranen K., Mikolajczyk R., Massari M., Salmaso S., Tomba G.S., Wallinga J., Heijne J., Sadkowska-Todys M., Rosinska M., Edmunds W.J. Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Medicine 2008, 5:e74.
43. O'Neill P., Roberts G.O. Bayesian inference for partially observed stochastic epidemics. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 1999, 162:121-129.
44. O'Neill P.D. A tutorial introduction to Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic models using Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Mathematical Biosciences 2002, 180:103-114.
45. Rigau-Pérez J.G. Smallpox epidemics in Puerto Rico during the prevaccine era (1518-1803). Journal of the History of Medicine 1982, 37:423-438.
46. Riley S., Fraser C., Donnelly C.A., Ghani A.C., Abu-Raddad L.J., Hedley A.J., Leung G.M., Ho L.M., Lam T.H., Thach T.Q., Chau P., Chan K.P., Leung P.Y., Tsang T., Ho W., Lee K.H., Lau E.M.C., Ferguson N.M., Anderson R.M. Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions. Science 2003, 300:1961-1966.
47. Rohani P., Earn D.J.D., Grenfell B.T. Opposite patterns of synchrony in sympatric disease metapopulations. Science 1999, 286:968-971.
48. Rohani P., Keeling M.J., Grenfell B.T. The interplay between determinism and stochasticity in childhood diseases. American Naturalist 2002, 159:469-481.
49. Schwarz G. Estimating dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics 1978, 6:461-464.
50. Smith M.J., White A., Sherratt J.A., Telfer S., Begon M., Lambin X. Disease effects on reproduction can cause population cycles in seasonal environments. Journal of Animal Ecology 2008, 77:378-389.
51. Spiegelhalter D.J., Best N.G., Carlin B.R., van der Linde A. Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology 2002, 64:583-616.
52. Steele R., Raftery A. Performance of Bayesian model selection criteria for Gaussian mixture models. Frontiers of Statistical Decision Making and Bayesian Analysis 2010, 113-130. Springer-Verlag, New York. M.H. Chen, P.D.S. Müller, K. Ye, D. Dey (Eds.).
53. Valleron A.J., Cori A., Valtat S., Meurisse S., Carrat F., Boelle P.Y. Transmissibility and geographic spread of the 1889 influenza pandemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2010, 107:8778-8781.