Pathogen-driven outbreaks in forest defoliators revisited: Building models from experimental data

American Naturalist

Volumn 156, Issue 2, 2000, Pages 105-120

  Dwyer, Greg ^a,e   Dushoff, Jonathan ^b   Elkinton, Joseph S ^c   Levin, Simon A ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME   (United States)

^b INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS   (Taiwan)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS   (United States)

^d PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^e UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO   (United States)

Author keywords

Heterogeneity in susceptibility; Host pathogen interactions; Lymantria dispar; Mathematical models; Nuclear polyhedrosis virus

Indexed keywords

ECOLOGICAL MODELING; HOST-PATHOGEN INTERACTION; MOTH; VIRUS;

EID: 0033943452     PISSN: 00030147     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1086/303379     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Anderson, R. M., and R. M. May. 1980. Infectious diseases and population-cycles of forest insects. Science (Washington, D.C.) 210:658-661.
2. -. 1981. The population dynamics of microparasites and their invertebrate hosts. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B, Biological Sciences 291:451-524.
3. Anderson, R. M., R. M. May, G. F. Medley, and A. Johnson. 1986. A preliminary study of the transmission dynamics of the (HIV), the causative agent of AIDS. IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology 3: 229-263.
4. Bonsall, M. B., H. C. J. Godfray, C. J. Briggs, and M. P. Hassell. 1999. Does host self-regulation increase the likelihood of insect-pathogen population cycles? American Naturalist 153:228-235.
5. Bowers, R. G., M. Begon, D. E. Hodgkinson. 1993. Host-pathogen population cycles in forest insects: lessons from simple-models reconsidered. Oikos 67:529-538.
6. Briggs, C. J., and H. C. J. Godfray. 1996. Dynamics of insect-pathogen interactions in seasonal environments. Theoretical Population Biology 50:149.
7. Briggs, C. J., R. S. Hails, N. D. Barlow, and H. C. J. Godfray. 1995. The dynamics of insect-pathogen interactions. Pages 295-326 in B. T. Grenfell and A. P. Dobson, eds. Ecology of infectious diseases in natural populations. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
8. Campbell, R. W. 1978. Some effects of gypsy moth density on rate of development, pupation time, and fecundity. Annals of the Entomological Society of America 71: 442-448.
9. Carter, M. R., F. W. Ravlin, and M. L. McManus. 1991. Changes in gypsy-moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) fecundity and male wing length resulting from defoliation. Environmental Entomology 21:1308-1318.
10. Cory, J. S., R. S. Hails, and S. M. Sait. 1997. Baculovirus ecology. Pages 301-340 in L. K. Miller, ed. The baculoviruses. Plenum, New York.
11. D'Amico, V., and J. S. Elkinton. 1995. Rainfall effects on transmission of gypsy-moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) nuclear polyhedrosis-virus. Environmental Entomology 24:1144-1149.
12. D'Amico, V., J. S. Elkinton, G. Dwyer, and J. P. Burand. 1996. Virus transmission in gypsy moths is not a simply mass-action process. Ecology 77:201-206.
13. D'Amico, V., J. S. Elkinton, G. Dwyer, R. B. Willis, and M. E. Montgomery. 1998. Foliage damage does not affect within-season transmission of an insect virus. Ecology 79:1104-1110.
14. Dushoff, J. 1999. Host heterogeneity and disease endemicity: a moment-based approach. Theoretical Population Biology 56:325-335.
15. Dwyer, G. 1991. The effects of density, stage and spatial heterogeneity on the transmission of an insect virus. Ecology 72:559-574.
16. Dwyer, G., and J. S. Elkinton. 1993. Using simple models to predict virus epizootics in gypsy moth populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 62:1-11.
17. -. 1995. Host dispersal and the spatial spread of insect pathogens. Ecology 76:1262-1275.
18. Dwyer, G., J. S. Elkinton, and J. P. Buonaccorsi. 1997. Host heterogeneity in susceptibility and disease dynamics: tests of a mathematical model. American Naturalist 150: 685-707.
19. Dwyer, G., J. Dushoff, J. S. Elkinton, J. P. Burand, and S. A. Levin. 2000. Host heterogeneity in susceptibility: lessons from an insect virus. In U. Dieckmann, ed. Virulence management. Springer, Berlin (in press).
20. Elkinton, J. S., and A. M. Liebhold. 1990. Population dynamics of gypsy moth in North America. Annual Review of Entomology 35:571-596.
21. Elkinton, J. S., W. M. Healy, J. P. Buonaccorsi, G. H. Boettner, A. M. Hazzard, H. R. Smith, and A. M. Leibhold. 1996. Interactions among gypsy moths, white-footed mice, and acorns. Ecology 77:2332-2342.
22. Ellner, S., and P. Turchin. 1995. Chaos in a noisy world: new methods and evidence from time-series analysis. American Naturalist 145:343-375.
23. Elton, C. 1927. Animal ecology. Sidgwick Jackson, London.
24. Evans, H. F., and P. F. Entwistle. 1987. Viral diseases. Pages 257-322 in J. R. Fuxa and Y. Tanada, eds. Epizootiology of insect diseases. Wiley, New York.
25. Fuxa, J. R., and A. R. Richter. 1992. Virulence and multigeneration passage of a nuclear polyhedrosis virus selected for an increased rate of vertical transmission. Biological Control 2:171-175.
26. Gould, J. R., J. S. Elkinton, and W. E. Wallner. 1990. Density-dependent suppression of experimentally created gypsy-moth, Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) populations by natural enemies. Journal of Animal Ecology 59:169-184.
27. Hassell, M. P., J. H. Lawton, and R. M. May. 1976. Patterns of dynamical behavior in single species populations. Journal of Animal Ecology 45:471-486.
28. Hassell, M. P., R. M. May, S. W. Pacala, and P. L. Chesson. 1991. The persistence of host-parasitoid associations in patchy environments. I. A general criterion. American Naturalist 138:568-583.
29. Hunter, A. F., and G. Dwyer. 1998. Insect population explosions synthesized and dissected. Integrative Biology 1:166-177.
30. Hunter, A. F., and J. S. Elkinton. 1999. Interaction between phenology and density effects on mortality from natural enemies. Journal of Animal Ecology 68:1-9.
31. -. 2000. Phenology and density in the population dynamics of a forest-defoliator. Ecology 81:1248-1261.
32. Jones, C. G., R. S. Ostfeld, M. P. Richard, E. M. Schauber, and J. O. Wolff. 1998. Chain reactions linking acorns to gypsy moth outbreaks and Lyme disease risk. Science (Washington, D.C.) 279:1023-1026.
33. Kermack, W. O., and A. G. McKendrick. 1927. A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A 115:700-721.
34. Lance, D. R., J. S. Elkinton, and C. P. Schwalbe. 1987. Behavior of late-instar gypsy-moth larvae in high and low-density populations. Ecological Entomology 12: 267-273.
35. Mattson, W. J., D. A. Herms, J. A. Witter, and D. C. Allen. 1991. Woody plant grazing systems: North American outbreak folivores and their host plants. U.S.D.A. Forest Service General Technical Report NE-153, 53-84.
36. May, R. M. 1981. Regulation of populations with non-overlapping generations by microparasites: a purely chaotic system. American Naturalist 125:573-584.
37. Metz, J. A. J., and O. Diekmann. 1986. The dynamics of physiologically structured populations. Springer, New York.
38. Murray, J. D. 1993. Mathematical biology. Springer, Berlin.
39. Murray, K. D., and J. S. Elkinton. 1989. Environmental contamination of egg masses as a major component of transgenerational transmission of gypsy-moth nuclear polyhedrosis virus (LdMNPV). Journal of Invertebrate Pathology 53:324-334.
40. -. 1990. Transmission of nuclear polyhedrosis virus to gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) eggs via contaminated substrates. Environmental Entomology 19:662-665.
41. Murray, K. D., K. S. Shields, J. P. Burand, and J. S. Elkinton. 1991. The effect of gyspy moth metamophosis on the development of nuclear polyhedrosis virus infection. Journal of Invertebrate Pathology 57:352-361.
42. Myers, J. H., and B. Kuken. 1995. Changes in the fecundity of tent caterpillars: a correlated character of disease resistance or sublethal effect of disease? Oecologia (Berlin) 103:475-480.
43. Myers J. H., G. Boettner, and J. S. Elkinton. 1999. Maternal effects in gypsy moth: only sex ratio varies with population density. Ecology 79:305-314.
44. Onstad, D. W., J. V. Maddox, D. J. Cox, and E. A. Kornkven. 1990. Spatial and temporal dynamics of animals and the host-density threshold in epizootiology. Journal of Invertebrate Pathology 55:76-84.
45. Ostfeld, R. S., C. G. Jones, and J. O. Wolf. 1996. Of mice and mast. BioScience 45:323-330.
46. Podgwaite, J. D., K. S. Shields, R. T. Zerillo, and R. B. Bruen. 1979. Environmental persistence of the nucleopolyhedrosis virus of the gypsy moth virus, Lymantria dispar. Environmental Entomology 8:528-536.
47. Rothman, L. D., and J. H. Myers. 1994. Nuclear polyhedrosis virus treatment effect on reproductive potential of western tent caterpillar (Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae). Environmental Entomology 23:864-869.
48. -. 1996. Debilitating effects of viral diseases on host lepidoptera. Journal of Invertebrate Pathology 67:1-10.
49. Turchin, P. 1990. Rarity of density dependence or population regulation with lags? Nature (London) 110: 1147-1153.
50. Turchin, P., and A. D. Taylor. 1992. Complex dynamics in ecological time series. Ecology 73:289-305.
51. Volkman, L. E. 1997. Nucleopolyhedrosis virus interactions with their insect host. Advances in Virus Research 48:313-348.
52. Watanabe, H. 1987. The host population. Pages 71-112 in J. R. Fuxa and Y. Tanada, eds. Epizootiology of insect diseases. Wiley, New York.
53. Weseloh, R. M., and T. G. Andreadis. 1986. Laboratory assessment of forest microhabitat substrates as sources of the gypsy moth nuclear polyhedrosis virus. Journal of Invertebrate Pathology 48:27-33.
54. Williams, D. W., and A. M. Liebhold. 1995. Influence of weather on the synchrony of gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) outbreaks in New England. Environmental Entomology 24:987-995.
55. Woods, S., and J. S. Elkinton. 1987. Bimodal patterns of mortality from nuclear polyhedrosis virus in gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) populations. Journal of Invertebrate Pathology 50:151-157.
56. Woods, S. A., J. S. Elkinton, and J. D. Podgwaite. 1989. Acquisition of nuclear polyhedrosis virus from tree stems by newly emerged gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) larvae. Environmental Entomology 18: 298-301.
57. Woods, S., J. S. Elkinton, K. D. Murray, A. M. Liebhold, J. R. Gould, and J. D. Podgwaite. 1991. Transmission dynamics of a nuclear polyhedrosis virus and predicting mortality in gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) populations. Journal of Economic Entomology 84: 423-430.