What you jointly know determines how you act - Strategic interactions in prediction markets

Proceedings of the ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce

Volumn , Issue , 2013, Pages 489-506

  Gao, Xi Alice ^a   Zhang, Jie ^b   Chen, Yiling ^a  

^a HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b AARHUS UNIVERSITY   (Denmark)

Author keywords

Information aggregation; Market scoring rule; Prediction market; Strategic analysis

Indexed keywords

INFORMATION AGGREGATION; INFORMATION STRUCTURES; LOGARITHMIC MARKET SCORING RULE; MARKET PARTICIPANTS; MARKET SCORING RULES; PREDICTION MARKETS; STRATEGIC ANALYSIS; STRATEGIC INTERACTIONS;

ELECTRONIC COMMERCE; GAME THEORY;

FORECASTING;

EID: 84879777934     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: None     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (21)

1. Abernethy, J., Chen, Y., and Vaughan, J. W. 2013. Eficient market making via convex optimization, and a connection to online learning. In ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation. Vol. 1. ACM, New York, NY, USA.
2. Allen, F. and Gale, D. 1992. Stock-price manipulation. The Review of Financial Studies 5, 3, 503-529.
3. Camerer, C. F. 1998. Can asset markets be manipulated? A field experiment with race- track betting. Journal of Political Economy 106, 3, 457-482.
4. Chakraborty, A. and Yilmaz, B. 2004. Manipulation in market order models. Journal of Financial Markets 7, 2, 187-206.
5. Chen, Y., Dimitrov, S., Sami, R., Reeves, D. M., Pennock, D. M., Hanson, R. D., Fortnow, L., and Gonen, R. 2010. Gaming prediction markets: Equilibrium strategies with a market maker. Algorithmica 58, 930-969.
6. Chen, Y., Fortnow, L., Nikolova, E., and Pennock, D. M. 2007a. Betting on per- mutations. In EC '07: Proceedings of the 8th ACM conference on Electronic commerce. ACM, New York, NY, USA, 326-335.
7. Chen, Y., Gao, X. A., Goldstein, R., and Kash, I. A. 2011. Market Manipulation with Outside Incentives. In Proceedings of the 25th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI'11).
8. Chen, Y. and Pennock, D. M. 2007. A utility framework for bounded-loss market makers. In UAI '07: Proceedings of the 23rd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence. 49-56.
9. Chen, Y., Reeves, D. M., Pennock, D. M., Hanson, R. D., Fortnow, L., and Gonen, R. 2007b. Bluffing and strategic reticence in prediction markets. In WINE'07: Pro- ceedings of the 3rd international conference on Internet and network economics. Springer- Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, 70-81.
10. Dimitrov, S. and Sami, R. 2007. Non-myopic strategies in prediction markets. In The 2nd Workshop on Prediction Markets.
11. Dimitrov, S. and Sami, R. 2010. Composition of markets with conicting incentives. In Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce (EC '10). ACM, New York, 53-62.
12. Hansen, J., Schmidt, C., and Strobel, M. 2004. Manipulation in political stock markets - preconditions and evidence. Applied Economics Letters 11, 7, 459-463.
13. Hanson, R. D. 2007. Logarithmic market scoring rules for modular combinatorial information aggregation. Journal of Prediction Markets 1, 1, 1-15.
14. Hanson, R. D., Oprea, R., and Porter, D. 2007. Information aggregation and manipu- lation in an experimental market. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 60, 4, 449-459.
15. Iyer, K., Johari, R., and Moallemi, C. C. 2010. Information aggregation in smooth markets. In EC '10: Proceedings of the 11th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce. ACM, New York, NY, USA, 199-205.
16. Jian, L. and Sami, R. 2010. Aggregation and manipulation in prediction markets: effects of trading mechanism and information distribution. EC'10: Proc. of the 11th ACM Conf. on Electronic Commerce, 207-208.
17. Kumar, P. and Seppi, D. J. 1992. Futures manipulation with "cash settlement". Journal of Finance 47, 4, 1485-1502.
18. Nikolova, E. and Sami, R. 2007. A strategic model for information markets. In EC '07: Proceedings of the 8th ACM conference on Electronic commerce. ACM, New York, NY, USA, 316-325.
19. Ostrovsky, M. 2012. Information aggregation in dynamic markets with strategic traders. Econometrica 80, 6, 2595-2647.
20. Rhode, P. W. and Strumpf, K. S. 2004. Historical presidential betting markets. Journal of Economic Perspectives 18, 2, 127-142.
21. Rhode, P. W. and Strumpf, K. S. 2007. Manipulating political stock markets: A field experiment and a century of observational data. Working Paper.