Characterizing climate model uncertainty using an informal bayesian framework: Application to the river Nile

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering

Volumn 18, Issue 5, 2013, Pages 582-589

  Elshamy, Mohamed ^a,b   Baldassarre, Giuliano Di ^c   van Griensven, Ann ^c  

^a Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation Egypt   (Egypt)

^b Nile Basin Initiative Shared Vision Programme   (Egypt)

^c UNESCO IHE INSTITUTE FOR WATER EDUCATION   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Climate change; GLUE; Nile; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION; DOWNSCALING METHODS; EMISSIONS SCENARIOS; GENERALIZED LIKELIHOOD UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION; HYDROLOGICAL MODELS; MODEL UNCERTAINTIES; NILE; UNCERTAINTY;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; GLUES; GLUING; WATER RESOURCES;

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; DOWNSCALING; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; RIVER FLOW; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

NILE RIVER;

EID: 84879716524     PISSN: 10840699     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000656     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., and Smith, M. (1998). "Crop evapotranspiration: Guidelines for computing crop water requirements."FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
2. Beven, K., and Binley, A. (1992). "The future of distributed models- Model calibration and uncertainty prediction." Hydrol. Processes, 6(3), 279-298.
3. Beven, K., and Freer, J. (2001). "Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology." J. Hydrol., 249(1-4), 11-29.
4. Cameron, D. S., Beven, K. J., Tawn, J., Blazkova, S., and Naden, P. (1999). "Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged upland catchment (with uncertainty)." J. Hydrol., 219(3-4), 169-187.
5. Dessai, S., Lu, X., and Hulme, M. (2005). "Limited sensitivity analysis of regional climate change probabilities for the 21st century." J. Geophys. Res., 110(D19), D19108.
6. Di Baldassarre, G., et al. (2011). "Future hydrology and climate in the River Nile basin: A review." Hydrol. Sci. J., 56(2), 199-211.
7. Elshamy, M. E. (2008). "Assessing the hydrological performance of the Nile Forecast System in long term simulations." Nile Water Sci. Eng. J., 1(1), 22-36.
8. Elshamy, M. E. A. M. (2006). "Improvement of the hydrological performance of land surface parameterization: An application to the Nile basin." Ph.D. thesis, Imperial College, Univ. of London, London.
9. Elshamy, M. E., Sayed, M. A.-A., and Badwy, B. (2009). "Impacts of climate change on Nile flows at Dongola using statistically downscaled GCM scenarios." Nile Water Sci. Eng. J., 2(2), 1-14.
10. Freer, J., Beven, K., and Ambroise, B. (1996). "Bayesian estimation of uncertainty in runoff prediction and the value of data: An application of the GLUE approach." Water Resour. Res., 32(7), 2161-2173.
11. Giorgi, F., and Mearns, L. O. (2002). "Calculation of average, uncertainty range, and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method." J. Clim., 15(10), 1141-1158.
12. Hawkins, E., and Sutton, R. (2009). "The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions." Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90(8), 1095-1107.
13. Johnson, F., and Sharma, A. (2009). "Measurement of GCM skill in predicting variables relevant for hydroclimatological assessments." J. Clim., 22(16), 4373-4382.
14. Jones, R. G., et al. (2004). Generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.
15. Kavetski, D., Franks, S. W., and Kuczera, G. (2003). "Confronting input uncertainty in environmental modelling." Calibration of watershed models. Water science and application 6, Q. Duan, H. V. Gupta, S. Sorooshian, A. N. Rousseau, and R Turcottte, eds., American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 49-68.
16. Knutti, R., Furrer, R., Tebaldi, C., Cermak, J., and Meehl, G. A. (2010). "Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models." J. Clim., 23(10), 2739-2758.
17. Mantovan, P., and Todini, E. (2006). "Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: Incoeherence of the GLUE methodology." J. Hydrol., 330, 368-381.
18. Montanari, A. (2005). "Large sample behaviors of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) in assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations." Water Resour. Res., 41(8), W08406.
19. Mote, P., Brekke, L., Duffy, P. B., and Maurer, E. (2011). "Guidelines for constructing climate scenarios." Eos Trans. AGU, 92(31), 257-258.
20. Murphy, J. M., et al. (2009). UK climate projections science rep.: Climate change projections, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, U.K.
21. Najafi, M. R., Moradkhani, H., and Jung, I. W. (2011). "Assessing the uncertainties of hydrologic model selection in climate change impact studies." Hydrol. Processes, 25(18), 2814-2826.
22. Nakicenovic, N., and Swart, R. (2000). Special rep. on emissions scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
23. Nash, J. E., and Sutcliffe, J. V. (1970). "River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I-A discussion of principles." J. Hydrol., 10(3), 282-290.
24. Nawaz, R., Bellerby, T. J., Sayed, M. A.-A., and Elshamy, M. E. (2010). "Blue Nile runoff sensitivity to climate change." Open Hydrol. J., 4, 137-151.
25. Nile Forecasting System version 5.1 [Computer software]. Nile Forecast Center, Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, Cairo, Egypt.
26. Pappenberger, F., et al. (2005). "Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10 days) through a rainfall-runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European flood forecasting system (EFFS)." Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9(4), 381-393.
27. Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., Santer, B. D., and Gleckler, P. J. (2009). "Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies." PNAS, 106(21), 8441-8446.
28. Reaney, S. M., and Fowler, H. J. (2008). "Uncertainty estimation of climate change impacts on river flow incorporating multiple climate models, stochastic downscaling and hydrological model parameterisation error sources." Proc., BHS 10th National Hydrology Symp., British Hydrological Society, Exeter, UK, 387-394.
29. Santer, B. D., et al. (2009). "Incorporating model quality information in climate change detection and attribution studies." PNAS, 106(35), 14778-14783.
30. Shongwe, M. E., van Oldenborgh, G. J., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., de Boer, B., Coelho, C. A. S., and van Aalst, M. K. (2009). "Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming. Part I: Southern Africa." J. Clim., 22(13), 3819-3837.
31. Tebaldi, C., Smith, R. L., Nychka, D., and Mearns, L. O. (2005). "Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change:A Bayesian approach to the analysis of multimodel ensembles." J. Clim., 18(10), 1524-1540.
32. Vrugt, J., Ter Braak, C., Gupta, H., and Robinson, B. (2009). "Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?" Stochastic Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 23(7), 1011-1026.
33. Wagener, T., McIntyre, N., Lees, M. J., Wheater, H. S., and Gupta, H. V. (2003). "Towards reduced uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling: Dynamic identifiability analysis." Hydrol. Processes, 17(2), 455-476.
34. Wilby, R. L., and Harris, I. (2006). "A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: Low-flow scenarios for the river Thames, UK." Water Resour. Res., 42(2), W02419.
35. Zambrano-Bigiarini, M. (2010). "On the effects of hydrological uncertainty in assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources." Ph.D. thesis, Universita degli studi di Trento, Trento, Italy.