Bayesian estimation of uncertainty in runoff prediction and the value of data: An application of the GLUE approach

Water Resources Research

Volumn 32, Issue 7, 1996, Pages 2161-2173

  Freer, Jim ^a,c   Beven, Keith ^a   Ambroise, Bruno ^b,d  

^a LANCASTER UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITÉ DE STRASBOURG   (France)

^c STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK   (United States)

^d Ctr d'Etud Rech EcoGeographiques   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN NETWORKS; CATCHMENTS; GLUING;

ADDITIONAL DATUM; BAYESIAN ESTIMATIONS; NON-GAUSSIAN; PARAMETER SET; PREDICTIVE UNCERTAINTY; RUNOFF PREDICTION; TOPMODEL; UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION;

GLUES;

CATCHMENTS; RUNOFF; SIMULATION;

BAYESIAN ESTIMATION; GLUE METHODOLOGY; RUNOFF PREDICTION; TOPMODEL;

FRANCE, LORRAINE, VOSGES, RINGELBACH;

EID: 0029659801     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/95WR03723     Document Type: Review

References (21)

1. Ambroise, B., K. J. Beven, and J. Freer, Toward a generalization of the TOPMODEL concepts: Topographic indices of hydrological similarity, Water Resour. Res., this issue (a).
2. Ambroise, B., J. Freer, and K. J. Beven, Application of a generalized TOPMODEL to the small Ringelbach catchment, Vosges, France, Water Resour. Res., this issue (b).
3. Beven, K. J., Interflow, in Unsaturated Flow in Hydrologic Modelling, edited by H. J. Morel-Seytoux, pp. 191-219, D. Reidel, Norwell, Mass., 1989a.
4. Beven, K. J., Changing ideas in hydrology: The case of physically based models, J. Hydrol., 105, 157-172, 1989b.
5. Beven, K. J., Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling. Adv. Water Resour., 16, 41-51, 1993.
6. Beven, K. J., and A. M. Binley, The future of distributed models: Model calibration and uncertainty prediction, Hydrol. Process., 6, 279-298, 1992.
7. Beven, K. J., and M. J. Kirkby, A physically based variable contributing area model of basin hydrology, Hydrol. Sci. Bull., 24(1), 43-69, 1979.
8. Beven, K. J., R. Lamb, P. F. Quinn, R. Romanowicz, and J. Freer, TOPMODEL, in Computer Models of Watershed Hydrology, edited by V. P. Singh, pp. 627-668, Water Resour. Publ., Highlands Ranch, Colo., 1995.
9. Binley, A. M., and K. J. Beven, Physically-based modelling of catchment hydrology: A likelihood approach to reducing predictive uncertainty, in Computer Modelling in the Environmental Sciences, edited by D. G. Farmer and M. J. Rycroft, pp. 75-88, Clarendon, Oxford, 1991.
10. Blackie, J. R., and C. W. O. Eeles, Lumped catchment models, in Hydrological Forecasting, edited by M. G. Anderson and T. P. Burt, John Wiley, New York, 1985.
11. Duan, Q., S. Sorooshian, and V. Gupta, Effective and efficient global optimization for conceptual rainfall-runoff models, Water Resour. Res., 28, 1015-1031, 1992.
12. Grayson, R. B., I. D. Moore, and T. A. McMahon, Physically based hydrologic modeling, 2, Is the concept realistic?, Water Resour. Res., 28, 2659-2666, 1992.
13. Hornberger, G. M., K. J. Beven, B. J. Cosby, and D. E. Sappington, Shenandoah watershed study: Calibration of a topography-based, variable contributing area hydrological model to a small forested catchment, Water Resour. Res., 21, 1841-1850, 1985.
14. Kirkby, M. J., Hydrograph modelling strategies, in Process in Physical and Human Geography, edited by R. Peel, M. Chisholm, and P. Haggett, pp. 69-90, Heinemann, London, 1975.
15. Lee, P. M., Bayesian Statistics: An Introduction, Edward Arnold, London, 1989.
16. Nash, J. E., and J. V. Sutcliffe, River flow forecasting through conceptual models, 1, A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282-290, 1970.
17. Romanowicz, R., K. J. Beven, and J. Tawn, Evaluation of predictive uncertainty in non-linear hydrological models using a Bayesian approach, in Statistics for the Environment, II, Water Related Issues, edited by V. Barnett and K. F. Turkman, pp. 297-317, John Wiley, New York, 1994.
18. Spear, R. C., and G. M. Hornberger, Eutrophication in Peel Inlet, II, Identification of critical uncertainties via Generalised Sensitivity Analysis, Water Res., 14, 43-49, 1980.
19. Spear, R. C., T. M. Grieb, and N. Shang, Parameter uncertainty and interaction in complex environmental models, Water Resour. Res., 30(11), 3159-3170, 1994.
20. Stephenson, G. R., and R. A. Freeze, Mathematical simulation of subsurface flow contributions to snowmelt runoff, Reynolds Creek watershed, Idaho, Water Resour. Res., 10, 284-298, 1974.
21. Whitehead, P. G., and G. M. Hornberger, Modeling algal behavior in the River Thames, Water Res., 18, 945-953, 1984.