Think globally, act locally: The role of local demographics and vaccination coverage in the dynamic response of measles infection to control

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 368, Issue 1623, 2013, Pages

  Ferrari, M J ^a   Grenfell, B T ^b   Strebel, P M ^c  

^a PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Elimination; Mean age at infection; Measles; Vaccination

Indexed keywords

AGE STRUCTURE; ANNUAL VARIATION; DEMOGRAPHY; DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASE INCIDENCE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE; HEALTH POLICY; LOCAL EXTINCTION; MEASLES; MORBIDITY; MORTALITY; NUMERICAL MODEL; POLICY MAKING; PUBLIC HEALTH; VACCINATION;

AGE; BIRTH RATE; DISEASE ERADICATION; HUMAN; INFECTION CONTROL; MASS IMMUNIZATION; MEASLES; PROCEDURES; PUBLIC HEALTH; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA;

AGE FACTORS; BIRTH RATE; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASE ERADICATION; HUMANS; MASS VACCINATION; MEASLES; PUBLIC HEALTH;

EID: 84879328384     PISSN: 09628436     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0141     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Heymann DL, Fine PE, Griffiths UK, Hall AJ, Mounier-Jack S. 2010 Measles eradication: past is prologue. Lancet 376, 1719-1720.(doi:10.1016/ S0140-6736(10)61934-4)
2. Meissner HC, Strebel PM, Orenstein WA. 2004 Measles vaccines and the potential for worldwide eradication of measles. Pediatrics 114, 1065-1069.(doi:10.1542/peds.2004-0440)
3. Orenstein WA, Strebel PM, Papania M, Sutter RW, Bellini WJ, Cochi SL. 2000 Measles eradication: is it in our future? Am. J. Public Health 90, 1521-1525.(doi:10.2105/AJPH.90.10.1521)
4. Griffin DE, Moss WJ. 2006 Can we eradicate measles? Microbe 1, 409-413.
5. Simons E, Ferrari M, Fricks J, Wannemuehler K, Anand A, Burton A, Strebel P. 2012 Assessment of the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal: results from a model of surveillance data. Lancet 79, 2173-2178.(doi:10.1016/S0140- 6736(12)60522-4)
6. Wolfson LJ, Strebel PM, Gacic-Dobo M, Hoekstra EJ, McFarland JW, Hersh BS. 2007 Has the 2005 measles mortality reduction goal been achieved? A natural history modelling study. Lancet 369, 191-200.(doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)60107-X)
7. Freymuth F, Vabret A. 2011 Measles, a re-emerging disease in France? Clin. Microbiol. Infect. 17, 793.(doi:10.1111/j.1469-0691.2011.03458.x)
8. Grais R. 2011 The changing epidemiological landscape of measles in Sub-Saharan Africa: the examples of Malawi and DRC. Trop. Med. Int. Health 16, 84-85.(doi:10.1111/j.1365-3156.2010. 02667.x)
9. Kidd S et al. 2012 Measles outbreak in Burkina Faso, 2009: a case-control study to determine risk factors and estimate vaccine effectiveness. Vaccine 30, 5000-5008.(doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.05.024)
10. Anderson RM, May RM. 1991 Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control, p. 768. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
11. McLean AR, Anderson RM. 1988 Measles in developing-countries. II. The predicted impact of mass vaccination. Epidemiol. Infect. 100, 419-442.
12. McLean AR, Anderson RM. 1998 Measles in developing-countries. I. Epidemiological parameters and patterns. Epidemiol. Infect. 100, 111-133.
13. Griffiths DA. 1974 Catalytic model of infection for measles. J. R. Statist. Soc. Ser. C 23, 330-339.
14. Grenfell BT, Anderson RM. 1985 The estimation of age-related rates of infection from case notifications and serological data. J. Hyg. 95, 419-436.(doi:10. 1017/S0022172400062859)
15. Griffith D. 1973 Effect of measles vaccination on incidence of measles in the community. J. R. Statist. Soc. Ser. A 136, 441-449.(doi:10.2307/2344999)
16. Fine PEM, Zell ER. 1994 Outbreaks in highly vaccinated populations: implications for studies of vaccine performance. Am. J. Epidemiol. 139, 77-90.
17. Metcalf CJE, Bjornstad ON, Ferrari MJ, Klepac P, Bharti N, Lopez-Gatell H, Grenfell BT. 2010 The epidemiology of rubella in Mexico: seasonality, stochasticity and regional variation. Epidemiol. Infect. 139, 1029-1038.(doi:10.1017/ S0950268810002165)
18. Wolfson LJ, Garis RF, Luquero FJ, Birmingham ME, Strebel PM. 2009 Estimates of measles case fatality ratios: a comprehensive review of community-based studies. Int. J. Epidemiol. 38, 192-205.(doi:10. 1093/ije/dyn224)
19. Mossong J et al. 2008 Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Med. 5, 381-391.(doi:10.1371/ journal.pmed.0050074)
20. Earn DJD, Rohani P, Bolker BM, Grenfell BT. 2000 A simple model for complex dynamical transitions in epidemics. Science 287, 667-670.(doi:10.1126/ science.287.5453.667)
21. Ferrari MJ, Grais RF, Bharti N, Conlan AJK, Bjornstad ON, Wolfson LJ, Guerin PJ, Djibo A, Grenfell BT. 2008 The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 451, 679-684.(doi:10.1038/ nature06509)
22. Bharti N, Tatem AJ, Ferrari MJ, Grais RF, Djibo A, Grenfell BT. 2011 Explaining seasonal fluctuations of measles in Niger using nighttime lights imagery. Science 334, 1424-1427.(doi:10.1126/science. 1210554)
23. Ferrari MJ, Djibo A, Grais RF, Grenfell BT, Bjornstad ON. 2010 Episodic outbreaks bias estimates of agespecific force of infection: a corrected method using measles as an example. Epidemiol. Infect. 138, 108-116.(doi:10.1017/S0950268809990173)
24. Fine PEM, Clarkson JA. 1982 Measles in England and Wales. 2. The impact of the measles vaccination program on the distribution of immunity in the population. Int. J. Epidemiol. 11, 15-25.
25. Grenfell BT, Kleczkowski A, Ellner SP, Bolker BM. 1994 Measles as a case-study in nonlinear forecasting and chaos. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A 348, 515-530.(doi:10.1098/rsta.1994.0108)
26. Keeling MJ, Grenfell BT. 1997 Disease extinction and community size: modeling the persistence of measles. Science 275, 65-67.(doi:10.1126/science. 275.5296.65)
27. Keeling MJ, Grenfell BT. 2002 Understanding the persistence of measles: reconciling theory, simulation and observation. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 269, 335-343.(doi:10.1098/rspb.2001.1898)
28. Olsen LF, Schaffer WM. 1990 Chaos versus noisy periodicity: alternative hypotheses for childhood epidemics. Science 249, 499-504.(doi:10.1126/ science.2382131)
29. Olsen LF, Truty GL, Schaffer WM. 1988 Oscillations and chaos in epidemics: a nonlinear dynamic study of 6 childhood diseases in Copenhagen, Denmark. Theor. Popul. Biol. 33, 344-370.(doi:10.1016/ 0040-5809(88)90019-6)
30. Bjornstad ON, Finkenstadt BF, Grenfell BT. 2002 Dynamics of measles epidemics: estimating scaling of transmission rates using a time series SIR model. Ecol. Monogr. 72, 169-184.
31. Bolker BM, Grenfell BT. 1993 Chaos and biological complexity in measles dynamics. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 251, 75-81.(doi:10.1098/rspb.1993.0011)
32. Metcalf CJE, Bjornstad ON, Grenfell BT, Andreasen V. 2009 Seasonality and comparative dynamics of six childhood infections in pre-vaccination Copenhagen. Proc. R. Soc. B 276, 4111-4118.(doi:10.1098/rspb. 2009.1058)
33. Keeling MJ, Rohani P. 2007 Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals, p. 408. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
34. Lessler J, Metcalf CJE, Grais RF, Luquero FJ, Cummings DAT, Grenfell BT. 2011 Measuring the performance of vaccination programs using crosssectional surveys: a likelihood framework and retrospective analysis. PLoS Med. 8, e1001110.(doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001110)
35. WHO. 2010 WHO vaccine-preventable diseases: monitoring system. Geneva, Switzerland: WHO.
36. Burton A, Gacic-Dobo M, Karimov R, Kowalski R. 2012 A computational logic-based representation of the WHO and UNICEF estimates of national immunization coverage. See http://www.doc.ic.ac.uk/~rak/papers/wuenic.pdf.
37. Team RC. 2012 R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: Computing RFfS.
38. Bolker B, Grenfell B. 1995 Space, persistence and dynamics of measles epidemics. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 348, 309-320.(doi:10.1098/rstb.1995.0070)
39. Bartlett MS. 1957 Measles periodicity and community size. J. R. Statist. Soc. Ser. A 120, 48-70.(doi:10.2307/2342553)
40. Grenfell B, Harwood J. 1997 (Meta)population dynamics of infectious diseases. Trends Ecol. Evol. 12, 395-399.(doi:10.1016/S0169-5347(97)01174-9)
41. UN. 2001 Road map towards the implementation of the United Nations Millennium Declaration: report of the Secretary-General. New York, NY: United Nations.
42. van den Ent M, Brown DW, Hoekstra EJ, Christie A, Cochi SL. 2011 Measles mortality reduction contributes substantially to reduction of all cause mortality among children less than five years of age, 1990-2008. J. Infect. Dis. 204, S18-S23.(doi:10.1093/infdis/jir081)
43. Conlan AJ, Grenfell BT. 2007 Seasonality and the persistence and invasion of measles. Proc. R. Soc. B 274, 1133-1141.(doi:10.1098/rspb.2006.0030)
44. Fine PEM. 1993 Herd immunity: history, theory, practice. Epidemiol. Rev. 15, 265-302.
45. Uzicanin A, Zimmerman L. 2011 Field effectiveness of live attenuated measles-containing vaccines: a review of published literature. J. Infect. Dis. 204, S133-S148.
46. Lloyd-Smith JO, Cross PC, Briggs CJ, Daugherty M, Getz WM, Latto J, Sanchez MS, Smith AB, Swei A. 2005 Should we expect population thresholds for wildlife disease? Trends Ecol. Evol. 20, 511-519.(doi:10.1016/j.tree.2005.07.004)
47. Hersh BS, Tambini G, Nogueira AD, de Quadros CA. 2000 Review of measles surveillance data in the Americas, 1996-1999. Lancet 355, 1943-1948.(doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(00)02325-4)
48. Fine PEM, Clarkson JA. 1983 Measles in England and Wales. III. Assessing published predictions of the impact of vaccination on incidence. Int. J. Epidemiol. 2, 332-339.
49. Broutin H, Viboud C, Grenfell BT, Miller MA, Rohani P. 2010 Impact of vaccination and birth rate on the epidemiology of pertussis: a comparative study in 64 countries. Proc. R. Soc. B 277, 3239-3245.(doi:10.1098/rspb.2010.0994)
50. Pitzer VE, Viboud C, Lopman BA, Patel MM, Parashar UD, Grenfell BT. 2009 Influence of birth rates and transmission rates on the global seasonality of rotavirus incidence. J. R. Soc. Interface 8, 1584-1593.(doi:10.1098/rsif.2011.0062)
51. Yameogo KR et al. 2005 Migration as a risk factor for measles after a mass vaccination campaign, Burkina Faso, 2002. Int. J. Epidemiol. 34, 556-564.(doi:10.1093/ije/dyi001)
52. Orenstein WA. 2006 The role of measles elimination in development of a national immunization program. Pediatr. Infect. Dis. J. 25, 1093-1101.(doi:10.1097/01.inf.0000246840.13477.28)
53. Babad HR, Nokes DJ, Gay NJ, Miller E, Morgancapner P, Anderson RM. 1995 Predicting the impact of measles vaccination in England and Wales-model validation and analysis of policy options. Epidemiol. Infect. 114, 319-344.(doi:10. 1017/S0950268800057976)
54. Nokes DJ, McLean AR, Anderson RM, Grabowsky M. 1990 Measles immunization strategies for countries with high transmission rates-interim guidelines predicted using a mathematical-model. Int. J. Epidemiol. 19, 703-710.(doi:10.1093/ije/19.3.703)
55. Grais RF et al. 2006 Emergency vaccination responses during large measles outbreaks: early intervention leads to a high proportion of averted cases. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 75, 191
56. Grais RF, Conlan AJK, Ferrari MJ, Djibo A, Le Menach A, Bjornstad ON, Grenfell BT. 2008 Time is of the essence: exploring a measles outbreak response vaccination in Niamey, Niger. J. R. Soc. Interface 5, 67-74.(doi:10.1098/rsif.2007.1038)
57. WHO. 2009 Measles vaccines: WHO position paper. Week. Epidemiol. Rec. 35, 349-360.
58. Gay NJ, Hesketh LM, Morgancapner P, Miller E. 1995 Interpretation of serological surveillance data for measles using mathematical models-implications for vaccine strategy. Epidemiol. Infect. 115, 139-156.(doi:10.1017/S0950268800058209)
59. Simons E, Mort M, Dabbagh A, Strebel P, Wolfson L. 2011 Strategic planning for measles control: using data to inform optimal vaccination strategies. J. Infect. Dis. 204, S28-S34.(doi:10.1093/infdis/ jir095)