The epidemiology of rubella in Mexico: Seasonality, stochasticity and regional variation

Epidemiology and Infection

Volumn 139, Issue 7, 2011, Pages 1029-1038

  Metcalf, C J E ^a,b   Bjornstad O N ^a,c   Ferrari, M J ^a   Klepac, P ^a,b   Bharti, N ^a,b   Lopez Gatell, H ^d   Grenfell, B T ^b,c  

^a PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH   (United States)

^d Ministry of Health   (Mexico)

Author keywords

Analysis of data; epidemiology; rubella; statistics

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BIOSTATISTICS; CHILD; CONTROLLED STUDY; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; HUMAN; INCIDENCE; INFECTION RISK; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MEXICO; ONSET AGE; POPULATION SIZE; PRESCHOOL CHILD; RISK FACTOR; RUBELLA; SCHOOL CHILD; SEASONAL VARIATION; VIRUS LOAD; VIRUS TRANSMISSION;

ADOLESCENT; AGE FACTORS; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; INFANT; MEXICO; POPULATION DYNAMICS; RUBELLA; SEASONS; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 79959359019     PISSN: 09502688     EISSN: 14694409     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268810002165     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Cutts FT, Vynnycky E. Modelling the incidence of congenital rubella syndrome in developing countries. International Journal of Epidemiology 1999; 28: 1176-1184. (Pubitemid 30021322)
2. Lawn JE, et al. Unseen blindness, unheard deafness, and unrecorded death and disability : congenital rubella in Kumasi, Ghana. American Journal of Public Health 2000; 90: 1555-1561.
3. Knox EG. Strategy for rubella vaccination. International Journal of Epidemiology 1980; 9: 13-23. (Pubitemid 10122672)
4. Anderson RM, Grenfell BT. Quantitative investigations of different vaccination policies for the control of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in the United Kingdom. Journal of Hygiene (Cambridge) 1986; 96: 305-333. (Pubitemid 16117625)
5. Anderson RM, May RM. Vaccination against rubella and measles: qualitative investigations of different policies. Journal of Hygiene of Cambridge 1983; 90: 259-325. (Pubitemid 13086184)
6. Panagiotopoulos T, Antoniadou I, Valassi-Adam E. Increase in congenital rubella occurrence after immunisation in Greece: retrospective survey and systematic review. British Medical Journal 1999; 319: 1462-1467.
7. Massad E, et al. A model-based design of a vaccination strategy against rubella in a non-immunized community of Sao Paulo State, Brazil. Epidemiology and Infection 1994; 112: 579-594. (Pubitemid 24183343)
8. Robertson SE, et al. Control of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in developing countries, part 2: vaccination against rubella. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 1997; 75: 69-80. (Pubitemid 27204821)
9. Vynnycky E, Gay NJ, Cutts FT. The predicted impact of private sector MMR vaccination on the burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome. Vaccine 2003; 21: 2708-2719. (Pubitemid 36703181)
10. Ferrari MJ, et al. Episodic outbreaks bias estimates of age specific force of infection : a corrected method using measles in Niamey, Niger as an example. Epidemiology and Infection 2010; 138: 108-116.
11. Metcalf CJE, et al. Rubella meta-population dynamics and importance of spatial coupling to the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in Peru. Journal of the Royal Society Interface (in press).
12. Wolfson LJ, et al. Has the 2005 measles mortality reduction goal been achieved? A natural history modelling study. Lancet 2007; 369: 191-200. (Pubitemid 46107682)
13. Plotkin SA. Rubella eradication. Vaccine 2001; 19: 3311-3319. (Pubitemid 32710279)
14. Anderson RM, May RM. Infectious Diseases of Humans. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991.
15. Fine PEM, Clarkson JA. Seasonal influences on pertussis. International Journal of Epidemiology 1986; 15: 237-247. (Pubitemid 16001825)
16. Bartlett MS. Measles periodicity and community size. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (General) 1957; 121: 48-70.
17. Vargas MH. Ecological association between scarlet fever and asthma. Respiratory Medicine 2006; 100: 363-366. (Pubitemid 43078991)
18. Santos JI, et al. Measles in Mexico, 1941-2001: interruption of endemic transmission and lessons learned. Journal of Infectious Diseases 2004; 189: S243-S250.
19. Bauch CT, Earn DJD. Transients and attractors in epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 2003; 270: 1573-1578. (Pubitemid 36960287)
20. Bjørnstad ON, Finkenstadt B, Grenfell BT. Endemic and epidemic dynamics of measles: Estimating epidemiological scaling with a time series SIR model. Ecological Monographs 2002; 72: 169-184. (Pubitemid 36198821)
21. Dirección General de Epidemiología. Yearly Morbidity Report. México, 2008.
22. National Institute of Statistics and Geography. Statistical Information>Source/Project>Administrative records>Vital statistics>Birth Statistics>Interactive data query, 2008.
23. McLean AR, Anderson RM. Measles in developing countries. Part I : Epidemiological parameters and patterns. Epidemiology and Infection 1988; 100: 111-133.
24. Farrington CP, Kanaan MN, Gay NJ. Estimation of the basic reproduction number for infectious diseases from age-stratified serological survey data. Applied Statistics 2001; 50: 251-292. (Pubitemid 33297023)
25. Venables WN, Ripley BD. Modern Applied Statistics with S. New York: Springer, 2003.
26. Ferrari MJ, et al. The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 2008; 451: 679-684. (Pubitemid 351220562)
27. Finkenstadt B, Grenfell BT. Time series modelling of childhood diseases : a dynamical systems approach. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C 2000; 49: 187-205.
28. Glass K, Xia Y, Grenfell BT. Interpreting time-series analyses for continuous-time biological models-measles as a case study. Journal of Theoretical Biology 2003; 223: 19-25. (Pubitemid 36637019)
29. Trujillo GG, Munoz O, Tapia-Conyer R. Seroepidemiology of rubella in Mexican women. National Survey of Public Health Probabilities in Mexico 1990; 32: 623-631.
30. Rios-Doria D, et al. Spatial and temporal dynamics of rubella in Peru, 1997-2006: geographic patterns, age at infection and estimation of transmissibility. In: Chowell EA, ed. Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology. Springer: Netherlands, 2009.
31. Golubjatnikov R, Elsea WR, Leppla L. Measles and rubella hemagglutination-inhibition antibody patterns in Mexican and Paraguayan children. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 1971; 20: 958-963.
32. Earn DJD, et al. A simple model for complex dynamical transitions in epidemics. Nature 2000; 287: 667-670. (Pubitemid 30070917)
33. Keeling MJ, Rohani P, Grenfell BT. Seasonally forced disease dynamics explored as switching between attractors. Physica D 2001; 148: 317-335. (Pubitemid 33651593)