Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

Journal of Climate

Volumn 26, Issue 11, 2013, Pages 3657-3670

  Jones, Andrew D ^a   Collins, William D ^a   Edmonds, James ^b   Torn, Margaret S ^a   Janetos, Anthony ^b   Calvin, Katherine V ^b   Thomson, Allison ^b   Chini, Louise P ^c   Mao, Jiafu ^d   Shi, Xiaoying ^d   Thornton, Peter ^d   Hurtt, George C ^c   Wise, Marshall ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

^c OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC ACTIVITY; ATMOSPHERIC CONSTITUENTS; ATMOSPHERIC FORCING; CLIMATE MITIGATIONS; COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL; FEEDBACK MECHANISMS; STABILIZATION TARGET;

ATMOSPHERIC RADIATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; COOLING SYSTEMS; DEFORESTATION; GREENHOUSE GASES; VAPORS;

COMPUTER SIMULATION;

ATMOSPHERIC FORCING; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY; FOREST COVER; GREENHOUSE GAS; HUMAN ACTIVITY; LAND USE CHANGE; RADIATIVE FORCING; SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY;

CLIMATES; COOLING SYSTEMS; DEFORESTATION; GREENHOUSE GASES; RADIATION; SIMULATION; VAPORS;

EID: 84878968913     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00377.1     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Air Resources Board, 2009: Proposed regulation to implement the low carbon fuel standard. Volume I: Staff report: Initial statement of reasons. California Environmental Protection Agency Rep., 374 pp. [Available online at http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/030409lcfs_isor_vol1.pdf.]
2. Arora, V. K., and A. Montenegro, 2011: Small temperature benefits provided by realistic afforestation efforts. Nat. Geosci., 4, 514-518.
3. Bala, G., K. Caldeira, M. Wickett, T. Phillips, D. Lobell, C. Delire, and A. Mirin, 2007: Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 6550-6555.
4. Betts, R., 2000: Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo. Nature, 408, 187- 190.
5. Betts, R., P. Falloon, and K. Goldewijk, 2007: Biogeophysical effects of land use on climate: Model simulations of radiative forcing and large-scale temperature change. Agric. For. Meteor., 14, 216-233.
6. Bitz, C. M., K.M. Shell, P. R. Gent, D. A. Bailey, G. Danabasoglu, K. C. Armour, M. M. Holland, and J. T. Kiehl, 2012: Climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, version 4. J. Climate, 25, 3053-3070.
7. Bonan, G. B., 2008: Forests and climate change: Forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests. Science, 320, 1444- 1449, doi:10.1126/science.1155121.
8. Bonan, G. B., D. Pollard, and S. L. Thompson, 1992: Effects of boreal forest vegetation on global climate. Nature, 359, 716-718.
9. Conley, A. J., J.-F. Lamarque, F. Vitt, W. D. Collins, and J. Kiehl, 2012: PORT, a CESM tool for the diagnosis of radiative forcing. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 5, 2687-2704.
10. FAO, 2008: UN-REDD: UN Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (UN-REDD). FAO, UNDP, and UNEP Framework Doc., 29 pp. [Available online at http://www.un-redd.org/Portals/15/documents/publications/UNREDD_FrameworkDocument.pdf.]
11. Feddema, J. J., K. W. Oleson, G. B. Bonan, L. O. Mearns, L. E. Buja, G. A. Meehl, and W. M. Washington, 2005: The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates. Science, 310, 1674-1678, doi:10.1126/science.1118160.
12. Findell, K. L., E. Shevliakova, P. C. D. Milly, and R. J. Stouffer, 2007: Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. J. Climate, 20, 3621-3634.
13. Foley, J., R. DeFries, G. Asner, and C. Barford, 2005: Global consequences of land use. Science, 309, 570-574.
14. Gedney, N., and P. Valdes, 2000: The effect of Amazonian deforestation on the Northern Hemisphere circulation and climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 3053-3056.
15. Gent, P. R, and Coauthors, 2011: The Community Climate System Model version 4. J. Climate, 24, 4973-4991.
16. Hasler, N., D. Werth, and R. Avissar, 2009: Effects of tropical deforestation on global hydroclimate:Amultimodel ensemble analysis. J. Climate, 22, 1124-1141.
17. Hurtt, G. C., S. Frolking, M. G. Fearon, B. Moore, E. Shevliakova, S. Malyshev, S. Pacala, and R. A. Houghton, 2006: The underpinnings of land-use history: Three centuries of global gridded land-use transitions, wood-harvest activity, and resulting secondary lands. Global Change Biol., 12, 1208-1229.
18. Hurtt, G. C., and Coauthors, 2011: Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500-2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands. Climatic Change, 109, 117-161, doi:10.1007/ s10584-011-0153-2.
19. Kim, S. H., J. Edmonds, J. Lurz, S. J. Smith, and M. Wise, 2006: The objECTS framework for integrated assessment: Hybrid modeling of transportation. Energy J., 27, 63-92.
20. Kvaleväg, M. M., G. Myhre, G. Bonan, and S. Levis, 2009: Anthropogenic land cover changes in a GCMwith surface albedo changes based on MODIS data. Int. J. Climatol., 30, 2105- 2117, doi:10.1002/joc.2012.
21. Lamarque, J. F., G. P. Kyle, M. Meinshausen, K. Riahi, S. J. Smith, D. P. van Vuuren, A. J. Conley, and F. Vitt, 2011: Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the representative concentration pathways. Climatic Change, 109, 191-212.
22. Lawrence, D. M., K. W. Oleson, M. G. Flanner, C. G. Fletcher, P. J. Lawrence, S. Levis, S. C. Swenson, and G. B. Bonan, 2012: The CCSM4 land simulation, 1850-2005: Assessment of surface climate and new capabilities. J. Climate, 25, 2240-2260.
23. Lawrence, P. J., and T. N. Chase, 2010: Investigating the climate impacts of global land cover change in the Community Climate System Model. Int. J. Climatol., 30, 2066-2087, doi:10.1002/joc.2061.
24. Lawrence, P. J., and Coauthors, 2012: Simulating the biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts of transient land cover change and wood harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100. J. Climate, 25, 3071-3095.
25. Levis, S., G. B. Bonan, E. Kluzek, P. E. Thornton, A. Jones, W. I. Sacks, and C. J. Kucharik, 2012: Interactive crop management in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1): Seasonal influences on land-atmosphere fluxes. J. Climate, 25, 4839- 4859.
26. Livezey, R., and W. Chen, 1983: Statistical field significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 46-59.
27. Marland, G., and Coauthors, 2003: The climatic impacts of land surface change and carbon management, and the implications for climate-change mitigation policy. Climate Policy, 3, 149- 157, doi:10.3763/cpol.2003.0318.
28. McGuffie, K., A. Henderson-Sellers, H. Zhang, T. Durbidge, and A. Pitman, 1995: Global climate sensitivity to tropical deforestation. Global Planet. Change, 10, 97-128.
29. Meinshausen, M., S. Raper, and T. Wigley, 2011: Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6-Part 1: Model description and calibration. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1417-1456.
30. Mitchell, T. D., 2003: Pattern scaling: an examination of the accuracy of the technique for describing future climates. Climatic Change, 60, 217-242.
31. Moss, R. H., and Coauthors, 2010: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463, 747- 756, doi:10.1038/nature08823.
32. Neale, R. B., J. Richter, S. Park, P. H. Lauritzen, S. J. Vavrus, P. J. Rasch, and M. Zhang, 2013: The mean climate of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) in forced SST and fully coupled experiments. J. Climate, in press.
33. Nepstad, D. C., C. M. Stickler, B. Soares-Filho, and F. Merry, 2008: Interactions among Amazon land use, forests and climate: Prospects for a near-term forest tipping point. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc., 363B, 1737-1746, doi:10.1098/rstb.2007.0036.
34. Pielke, R. A., Sr., G. Marland, R. A. Betts, T. N. Chase, J. L. Eastman, J. O. Niles, D. D. S. Niyogi, and S. W. Running, 2002: The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: Relevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc., 360, 1705-1719.
35. Pitman, A. J., and Coauthors, 2009: Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCIDintercomparison study. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L14814, doi:10.1029/2009GL039076.
36. Santer, B. D., and Coauthors, 2004: Identification of anthropogenic climate change using a second-generation reanalysis. J. Geophys. Res., 109, D21104, doi:10.1029/2004JD005075.
37. Schlesinger, M. E., and Coauthors, 2000: Geographical distributions of temperature change for scenarios of greenhouse gas and sulfur dioxide emissions. Technol. Forecasting Soc. Change, 65, 167-193, doi:10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00114-6.
38. Swann, A., I. Fung, S. Levis, G. Bonan, and S. Doney, 2010: Changes in Arctic vegetation amplify high-latitude warming through the greenhouse effect. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 1295-1300.
39. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2011: A summary of the CMIP5 experimental design. CMIP5 Rep., 33 pp.
40. Thomson, A. M., and Coauthors, 2010: Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 19 633-19 638.
41. Thomson, A. M., and Coauthors, 2011: RCP4.5: A pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Climatic Change, 109, 77-94.
42. Thornton, P. E., J. F. Lamarque, N. A. Rosenbloom, and N. M. Mahowald, 2007: Influence of carbon-nitrogen cycle coupling on land model response to CO2 fertilization and climate variability. Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 21, 1- 15.
43. U.S. Congress, 2012: American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009. H.R. Rep. 2454.
44. U.S. EPA, 2010: Renewable Fuel Standard Program (RFS2) regulatory impact analysis. U.S. EPA Rep., 1109 pp.
45. van der Molen, M. K., B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, and W. Hazeleger, 2011: A dampened land use change climate response towards the tropics. Climate Dyn., 37 (9-10), 2035-2043, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1018-0.
46. van Vuuren, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change, 109, 5-31, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z.
47. von Randow, C., and Coauthors, 2004. Comparative measurements and seasonal variations in energy and carbon exchange over forest and pasture in south west Amazonia. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 78, 5-26, doi:10.1007/s00704-004-0041-z.
48. Watson, R. T., I. R. Noble, B. Bolin, N. H. Ravindranath, D. J. Verardo, and D. J. Dokken, Eds., 2000: Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry. Cambridge University Press, 375 pp.
49. Wise, M., and Coauthors, 2009: Implications of limiting CO2 concentrations for land use and energy. Science, 324, 1183-1186, doi:10.1126/science.1168475.