Limited evolutionary rescue of locally adapted populations facing climate change

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 368, Issue 1610, 2013, Pages

  Schiffers, Katja ^a   Bourne, Elizabeth C ^b,c,d   Lavergne, Sébastien ^a   Thuiller, Wilfried ^a   Travis, Justin M J ^b  

^a UNIVERSITÉ JOSEPH FOURIER   (France)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ABERDEEN   (United Kingdom)

^c SCOTTISH CROP RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (United Kingdom)

^d FREIE UNIVERSITÄT BERLIN   (Germany)

Author keywords

Allelic model; Dispersal; Gene flow; Habitat heterogeneity; Migration load; Rapid adaptation

Indexed keywords

ALLELE; CHROMOSOME; CLIMATE CHANGE; DISPERSAL; EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY; GENE FLOW; HETEROGENEITY; LOCAL ADAPTATION; MIGRATORY SPECIES; POPULATION SIZE;

ADAPTATION; ALLELE; ARTICLE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; CHROMOSOME; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; ECOSYSTEM; EVOLUTION; GENE FLOW; GENETIC SELECTION; GENETICS; METHODOLOGY; PLANT; POPULATION DENSITY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION GENETICS; SPECIES EXTINCTION; TEMPERATURE;

ADAPTATION, BIOLOGICAL; ALLELES; BIOLOGICAL EVOLUTION; CHROMOSOMES; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; ECOSYSTEM; EXTINCTION, BIOLOGICAL; GENE FLOW; GENETICS, POPULATION; MODELS, GENETIC; PLANTS; POPULATION DENSITY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SELECTION, GENETIC; TEMPERATURE;

EID: 84877127050     PISSN: 09628436     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0083     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Bellard C, Bertelsmeier C, Leadley P, Thuiller W, Courchamp F. 2012 Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecol. Lett. 15, 365-377. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01736.x)
2. Bradshaw AD. 2006 Unravelling phenotypic plasticity: why should we bother? New Phytol. 170, 644-648. (doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2006.01761.x)
3. Charmantier A, McCleery RH, Cole LR, Perrins C, Kruuk LEB, Sheldon BC. 2008 Adaptive phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change in a wild bird population. Science 320, 800-803. (doi:10.1126/science.1157174)
4. Lande R. 2009 Adaptation to an extraordinary environment by evolution of phenotypic plasticity and genetic assimilation. J. Evol. Biol. 22, 1435-1446. (doi:10.1111/j.1420-9101.2009.01754.x)
5. Chevin L-M, Lande R, Mace GM. 2010 Adaptation, plasticity, and extinction in a changing environment: towards a predictive theory. PLoS Biol. 8, e1000357. (doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1000357)
6. Parmesan C. 2006 Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. 7, 637-669. (doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100)
7. Chen I-C, Hill JK, Ohlemüller R, Roy DB, Thomas CD. 2011 Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333, 1024-1026. (doi:10.1126/science.1206432)
8. Jump A, Penuelas J. 2005 Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change RID D-9704-2011. Ecol. Lett. 8, 1010-1020. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00796.x)
9. Bell G, Collins S. 2008 Adaptation, extinction and global change. Evol. Appl. 1, 3-16. (doi:10.1111/j.1752-4571.2007.00011.x)
10. Ackerly D. 2003 Community assembly, niche conservatism, and adaptive evolution in changing environments. Int. J. Plant Sci. 164, S165-S184. (doi:10.1086/368401)
11. Grant P, Grant B. 2002 Unpredictable evolution in a 30-year study of Darwin's finches. Science 296, 707-711. (doi:10.1126/science.1070315)
12. Franks S, Sim S, Weis A. 2007 Rapid evolution of flowering time by an annual plant in response to a climate fluctuation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 1278-1282. (doi:10.1073/pnas. 0608379104)
13. Savolainen O, Bokma F, García-Gil R, Komulainen P, Repo T. 2004 Genetic variation in cessation of growth and frost hardiness and consequences for adaptation of Pinus sylvestris to climatic changes. Forest Ecol. Manag. 197, 79-89. (doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2004.05.006)
14. Millien V. 2006 Morphological evolution is accelerated among island mammals. PLoS Biol. 4, e321. (doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0040321)
15. Fisher R. 1930 Genetics, mathematics, and natural selection. Nature 126, 805-806. (doi:10.1038/126805a0)
16. Turelli M. 1984 Heritable genetic-variation via mutation selection balance-lerch zeta meets the abdominal bristle. Theor. Popul. Biol. 25, 138-193. (doi:10.1016/0040-5809(84)90017-0)
17. Barton N. 2001 Adaptation at the edge of a species' range. In Integrating ecology and evolution in a spatial context, vol. 14 (eds J Silvertown, J Antonovics), pp. 365-392. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Science.
18. Maynard Smith J. 1989 Evolutionary genetics. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
19. Futuyma DJ. 2010 Evolutionary constraint and ecological consequences. Evolution 64, 1865-1884. (doi:10.1111/j.1558-5646.2010.00960.x)
20. Lavergne S, Mouquet N, Thuiller W, Ronce O. 2010 Biodiversity and climate change: integrating evolutionary and ecological responses of species and communities. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 41, 321-350. (doi:10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-102209-144628)
21. Atkins KE, Travis JMJ. 2010 Local adaptation and the evolution of species' ranges under climate change. J. Theor. Biol. 266, 449-457. (doi:10.1016/j.jtbi. 2010.07.014)
22. Bridle J, Polechova J, Kawata M, Butlin R. 2010 Why is adaptation prevented at ecological margins? New insights from individual-based simulations. Ecol. Lett. 13, 485-494. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248. 2010.01442.x)
23. Phillips BL. 2012 Range shift promotes the formation of stable range edges. J. Biogeogr. 39, 153-161. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02597.x)
24. Lambrinos J. 2004 How interactions between ecology and evolution influence contemporary invasion dynamics? Ecology 85, 2061-2070. (doi:10.1890/03-8013)
25. Gurevitch J, Fox GA, Wardle GM, Singh I, Taub D. 2011 Emergent insights from the synthesis of conceptual frameworks for biological invasions. Ecol. Lett. 14, 407-418. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01594.x)
26. García-Ramos G, Rodríguez D. 2002 Evolutionary speed of species invasions. Evolution 56, 661-668. (doi:10.1554/0014-3820(2002) 056[0661:ESOSI]2.0.CO;2)
27. Hammershoj M, Travis JMJ, Stephenson CM. 2006 Incorporating evolutionary processes into a spatially-explicit model: exploring the consequences of mink-farm closures in Denmark. Ecography 29, 465-476. (doi:10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04492.x)
28. Bowler D, Benton T. 2005 Causes and consequences of animal dispersal strategies: relating individual behaviour to spatial dynamics. Biol. Rev. 80, 205-225. (doi:10.1017/S1464793104006645)
29. Clobert J, Baguette M, Benton TG, Bullock JM, Ducatez S (eds) 2012 Dispersal ecology and evolution.
30. Holt R, Gomulkiewicz R. 1997 How does immigration influence local adaptation? A reexamination of a familiar paradigm. Am. Nat. 149, 563-572. (doi:10.1086/286005)
31. Kawecki T, Ebert D. 2004 Conceptual issues in local adaptation. Ecol. Lett. 7, 1225-1241. (doi:10.1111/ j.1461-0248.2004.00684.x)
32. Davis MB, Shaw RG. 2001 Range shifts and adaptive responses to quaternary climate change. Science 292, 673-679. (doi:10.1126/science.292.5517.673)
33. Hewitt GM, Nichols RA. 2005 Genetic and evolutionary impacts of climate change. In Climate change and biodiversity (eds TE Lovejoy, L Hannah), pp. 176-192. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
34. Reusch T, Wood T. 2007 Molecular ecology of global change. Mol. Ecol. 16, 3973-3992. (doi:10.1111/j. 1365-294X.2007.03454.x)
35. Bell G, Gonzalez A. 2011 Adaptation and evolutionary rescue in metapopulations experiencing environmental deterioration. Science 332, 1327-1330. (doi:10.1126/science.1203105)
36. Bolnick D, Nosil P. 2007 Natural selection in populations subject to a migration load. Evolution 61, 2229-2243. (doi:10.1111/j.1558-5646.2007.00179.x)
37. Lopez S, Rousset F, Shaw FH, Shaw RG, Ronce O. 2008 Migration load in plants: role of pollen and seed dispersal in heterogeneous landscapes. J. Evol. Biol. 21, 294-309. (doi:10.1111/j.1420-9101.2007.01442.x)
38. Alleaume-Benharira M, Pen I, Ronce O. 2006 Geographical patterns of adaptation within a species' range: interactions between drift and gene flow. J. Evol. Biol. 19, 203-215. (doi:10.1111/j. 1420-9101.2005.00976.x)
39. Holt R, Gomulkiewicz R, Barfield M. 2003 The phenomology of niche evolution via quantitive traits in a 'black-hole' sink. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 270, 215-224. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2002.2219)
40. Pease C, Lande R, Bull J. 1989 A model of population-growth, dispersal and evolution in a changing environment. Ecology 70, 1657-1664. (doi:10.2307/1938100)
41. Case T, Taper M. 2000 Interspecific competition, environmental gradients, gene flow, and the coevolution of species' borders. Am. Nat. 155, 583-605. (doi:10.1086/303351)
42. Polechova J, Barton N, Marion G. 2009 Species' range: adaptation in space and time. Am. Nat. 174, E186-E204. (doi:10.1086/605958)
43. Fournier-Level A, Korte A, Cooper MD, Nordborg M, Schmitt J, Wilczek AM. 2011 A map of local adaptation in Arabidopsis thaliana. Science 334, 86-89. (doi:10.1126/science.1209271)
44. Jermstad K, Bassoni D, Wheeler N, Anekonda T, Aitken S, Adams W, Neale D. 2001 Mapping of quantitative trait loci controlling adaptive traits in coastal Douglas-fir. II. Spring and fall cold- hardiness. Theor. Appl. Genet. 102, 1152-1158. (doi:10.1007/s001220000506)
45. Falconer DS, Mackay TFC. 1996 Introduction to quantitative genetics. Harlow, UK: Longman.
46. North A, Pennanen J, Ovaskainen O, Laine A. 2011 Local adaptation in a changing world: the roles of gene-flow, mutation, and sexual reproduction. Evolution 65, 79-89. (doi:10.1111/j.1558-5646. 2010.01107.x)
47. Schultz S, Lynch M, Willis J. 1999 Spontaneous deleterious mutation in Arabidopsis thaliana. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 96, 11393-11398. (doi:10. 1073/pnas.96.20.11393)
48. Hoffman PD, Leonard JM, Lindberg GE, Bollmann SR, Hays JB. 2004 Rapid accumulation of mutations during seed-to-seed propagation of mismatch- repair-defective Arabidopsis. Genes Dev. 18, 2676-2685. (doi:10.1101/gad.1217204)
49. Ossowski S, Schneeberger K, Lucas-Lledó JI, Warthmann N, Clark RM, Shaw RG, Weigel D, Lynch M. 2010 The rate and molecular spectrum of spontaneous mutations in Arabidopsis thaliana. Science 327, 92-94. (doi:10.1126/science. 1180677)
50. Greene DF, Canham CD, Coates KD, Lepage PT. 2004 An evaluation of alternative dispersal functions for trees. J. Ecol. 92, 758-766. (doi:10.1111/j.0022-0477.2004.00921.x)
51. Burton O, Phillips B, Travis J. 2010 Trade-offs and the evolution of life-histories during range expansion. Ecol. Lett. 13, 1210-1220. (doi:10.1111/ j.1461-0248.2010.01505.x)
52. Barton N, Bengtsson BO. 1986 The barrier to genetic exchange between hybridising populations. Heredity 57, 357-376. (doi:10.1038/hdy.1986.135)
53. Gomulkiewicz R, Holt R. 1995 When does evolution by natural-selection prevent extinction. Evolution 49, 201-207. (doi:10.2307/2410305)
54. Ostman B, Hintze A, Adami C. 2012 Impact of epistasis and pleiotropy on evolutionary adaptation. Proc. R. Soc. B 279, 247-256. (doi:10.1098/rspb. 2011.0870)
55. Emery NC, Rice KJ, Stanton ML. 2011 Fitness variation and local distribution limits in an annual plant population. Evolution 65, 1011-1020. (doi:10.1111/j.1558-5646.2010.01183.x)
56. Travis J, Dytham C. 2002 Dispersal evolution during invasions. Evol. Ecol. Res. 4, 1119-1129.
57. Simmons A, Thomas C. 2004 Changes in dispersal during species' range expansions. Am. Nat. 164, 378-395. (doi:10.1086/423430)
58. Phillips BL, Brown GP, Webb JK, Shine R. 2006 Invasion and the evolution of speed in toads. Nature 439, 803-803. (doi:10.1038/439803a)
59. Hedrick PW. 2006 Genetic polymorphism in heterogeneous environments: the age of genomics. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 37, 67-93. (doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110132)
60. Reusch TBH, Haberli MA, Aeschlimann PB, Milinski M. 2001 Female sticklebacks count alleles in a strategy of sexual selection explaining MHC polymorphism. Nature 414, 300-302. (doi:10. 1038/35104547)
61. Beldade P, Koops K, Brakefield PM. 2002 Developmental constraints versus flexibility in morphological evolution. Nature 416, 844-847. (doi:10.1038/416844a)
62. El-Assal, SE-D, Le J, Basu D, Mallery EL, Szymanski DB. 2004 Arabidopsis gnarled encodes a NAP125 homolog that positively regulates ARP2/3. Curr. Biol. 14, 1405-1409. (doi:10.1016/j.cub.2004.06.062)
63. Colosimo PF et al. 2005 Widespread parallel evolution in sticklebacks by repeated fixation of ectodysplasin alleles. Science 307, 1928-1933. (doi:10.1126/science.1107239)
64. Kronholm I, Picó FX, Alonso-Blanco C, Goudet J, de Meaux J. 2012 Genetic basis of adaptation in Arabidopsis thaliana: local adaptation at the seed dormancy qtl dog1. Evolution 66, 2287-2302. (doi:10.1111/j.1558-5646.2012.01590.x)