Reconstructing patterns of temperature, phenology, and frost damage over 124 years: Spring damage risk is increasing

Ecology

Volumn 94, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 41-50

  Augspurger, Carol K ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA CHAMPAIGN   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Extreme event; Flowers; Frost damage; Global warming; Leaves; Long term study; Phenology; Temperature pattern; Trees; Warm spring

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL RISK; EXTREME EVENT; FROST; PHENOLOGY; PROBABILITY; REPRODUCTIVE STATUS; SPRING (SEASON); WOODY PLANT;

ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; FREEZING; GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT AND AGING; PLANT; SEASON; TEMPERATURE; TIME; TREE; UNITED STATES;

CLIMATE CHANGE; FREEZING; ILLINOIS; PLANT SHOOTS; SEASONS; TEMPERATURE; TIME FACTORS; TREES;

CHAMPAIGN COUNTY [ILLINOIS]; ILLINOIS; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84876143445     PISSN: 00129658     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/12-0200.1     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Augspurger, C. K. 2009. Spring 2007 warmth and frost: phenology, damage, and refoliation in a temperate deciduous forest. Functional Ecology 23:1031-1039.
2. Augspurger, C. K. 2011. Frost damage and cascading negative effects on Aesculus glabra. Plant Ecology 212:1193-1203.
3. Augspurger, C. K., and E. A. Bartlett. 2003. Differences in leaf phenology between juvenile and adult trees in a temperate deciduous forest. Tree Physiology 23:517-525.
4. Barker, D. H., B. R. Loveys, J. J. G. Egerton, H. Gorton, W. E. Williams, and M. C. Ball. 2005. CO2 enrichment predisposes foliage of a eucalypt to freezing injury and reduces spring growth. Plant Cell Environment 28:1506-1515.
5. Bennie, J., E. Kubin, A. Wiltshire, B. Huntley, and R. Baxter. 2010. Predicting spatial and temporal patterns of bud-burst and spring frost risk in north-west Europe: the implications of local adaptation to climate. Global Change Biology 16:1503-1514.
6. Cannell, M. G. R., and R. I. Smith. 1984. Spring frost damage on young Picea sitchensis II. Predicted dates of budburst and probability of frost damage. Forestry 57:177-197.
7. Cannell, M. G. R., and R. I. Smith. 1986. Climatic warming, spring budburst, and frost damage on trees. Journal of Applied Ecology 23:177-191.
8. Clarke, W. S., Jr. 1946. Effect of low temperature on the vegetation of the Barrens in central Pennsylvania. Ecology 27:188-189.
9. Cooter, E., and S. LeDuc. 1995. Recent frost date trends in the northeastern United States. International Journal of Climatology 15:65-75.
10. Dixon, P.M. 1993. The bootstrap and the jackknife: describing the precision of ecological indices. Pages 290-318 in S. M. Scheiner and J. Gurevitch, editors. Design and analysis of ecological experiments. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York, USA.
11. Easterling, D. R. 2002. Recent changes in frost days and the frost-free season in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83:1327-1332.
12. Frich, P., L. V. Alexander, P. Della-Marta, B. Gleason, M. Haylock, A. Klein Tank, and T. Peterson. 2002. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research 19:193-212.
13. Gu, L., P. J. Hanson, W. M. Post, D. P. Kaiser, B. Yang, R. Nemani, S. G. Pallardy, and T. Meyers. 2008. The 2007 eastern US spring freeze: increased cold damage in a warming world? BioScience 58:253-262.
14. Gutschick, V. P., and H. BassiriRad. 2003. Extreme events as shaping physiology, ecology, and evolution of plants: toward a unified definition and evaluation of their consequences. New Phytologist 160:21-42.
15. Hufkens, K., M. A. Friedl, T. F. Keenan, O. Sonnentag, A. Bailey, J. O'Keefe, and A. D. Richardson. 2012. Ecological impacts of a widespread frost event following early spring leaf-out. Global Change Biology 18:2365-2377.
16. Inouye, D. W. 2000. The ecological and evolutionary significance of frost in the context of climate change. Ecology Letters 3:457-463.
17. Inouye, D. W. 2008. Effects of climate change on phenology, frost damage, and floral abundance of montane wildflowers. Ecology 89:353-362.
18. Karl, T. R., and D. R. Easterling. 1999. Climate extremes: selected review and future research directions. Climate Change 42:309-325.
19. Katz, R. W., and B. G. Brown. 1992. Extreme events in a changing climate: variability is more important than averages. Climate Change 21:289-302.
20. Kodra, E., K. Steinhaeuser, and A. Ganguly. 2011. Persisting cold extremes under 21st century warming scenarios. Geophysical Research Letters 38:L08705.
21. Korstian, C. F. 1921. Effect of a late spring frost on forest vegetation of the Wasatch Mountains of Utah. Ecology 2:47-52.
22. Kreyling, J., D. Thiel, L. Nagy, A. Entsch, G. Huber, M. Konnert, and C. Beierkuhnlein. 2011. Late frost sensitivity of juvenile Fagus sylvatica L. differs between southern Germany and Bulgaria and depends on preceding air temperatures. European Journal of Forest Research 131:717-725.
23. Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Hubbard, and K. Redmond. 2004. Temporal variations in frost-free season in the United States 1895-2000. Geophysical Research Letters 31:L03201.
24. Leinonen, I. 1996. A simulation model for the annual frost hardiness and freeze damage of Scots pine. Annals of Botany 78:687-693.
25. Marino, G. P., D. P. Kaiser, L. Gu, and D. M. Ricciuto. 2011. Reconstruction of false spring occurrences over the southeastern United States, 1901-2007: an increasing risk of spring freeze damage? Environmental Research Letters 6:024015.
26. Menzel, A. 2000. Trends in phenological phases in Europe between 1951 and 1996. International Journal of Biometeorology 44:76-81.
27. Mock, C., J. Mojzisek, M. McWaters, M. Chenoweth, and D. W. Stahle. 2007. The winter of 1827-1828 over eastern North America: a season of extraordinary climatic anomalies, societal impacts, and false spring. Climate Change 83:87-115.
28. Rigby, J. R., and A. Porporato. 2008. Spring frost risk in a changing climate. Geophysical Research Letters 35:L12703.
29. Robeson, S. M. 2002. Increasing growing-season length in Illinois during the 20th century. Climate Change 52:219-238.
30. Sakai, A., and W. Larcher. 1987. Frost survival of plants: responses and adaptation to freezing stress. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
31. Schaber, J., and F. W. Baldeck. 2005. Plant phenology in Germany over the 20th century. Regional Environmental Change 5:37-46.
32. Scheifinger, H., A. Menzel, E. Koch, and Ch. Peter. 2003. Trends in springtime frost events and phenological dates in central Europe. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 74:41-51.
33. Schwartz, M. D., R. Ahas, and A. Aasa. 2006. Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere. Global Change Biology 12:343-351.
34. Story, M., and R. G. Congalton. 1986. Accuracy assessment: a user's perspective. Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing 52:397-399.
35. Strain, B. R. 1966. The effect of a late spring frost on the radial growth of variant quaking aspen biotypes. Forest Science 12:334-337.
36. Trenberth, K. E. et al. 2007. Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. Chapter 3 in S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Avery, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, editors. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
37. Vavrus, S., J. E. Walsh, W. L. Chapman, and D. Portis. 2006. The behavior of extreme cold air outbreaks under greenhouse warming. International Journal of Climatology 26:1133-1147.
38. Walsh, J. E., A. S. Phillips, D. H. Portis, and W. L. Chapman. 2001. Extreme cold outbreaks in the United States and Europe, 1948-99. Journal of Climate 14:2642-2658.