Predicting spatial and temporal patterns of bud-burst and spring frost risk in north-west Europe: The implications of local adaptation to climate

Global Change Biology

Volumn 16, Issue 5, 2010, Pages 1503-1514

  Bennie, Jonathan ^a   Kubin, Eero ^b   Wiltshire, Andrew ^a   Huntley, Brian ^a   Baxter, Robert ^a  

^a DURHAM UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b FINNISH FOREST RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Finland)

Author keywords

Betula pubescens; Bud burst; Climate change; Downy birch; Fennoscandia; Finland; Frost risk; Growing degree days; Growing season; Phenology

Indexed keywords

ACCLIMATION; BUDBURST; CLIMATE CHANGE; DECIDUOUS TREE; EVOLUTIONARILY STABLE STRATEGY; FROST; GROWING SEASON; INCLUSIVE FITNESS; LOCAL ADAPTATION; NUMERICAL MODEL; PARAMETERIZATION; PHENOLOGY; PHENOTYPE; PREDICTION; SPATIAL VARIATION; TEMPORAL VARIATION; TRADE-OFF;

FENNOSCANDIA; FINLAND;

BETULA PUBESCENS;

EID: 77953142685     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02095.x     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Ahas R, Aasa A, Menzel A, Fedotova VG, Scheifinger H. Changes in European spring phenology. International Journal of Climatology 2002, 22:1727-1738.
2. Ahl DE, Gower ST, Burrows SN, Shabanov NV, Myneni RB, Knyazikhin Y. Monitoring spring canopy phenology of a deciduous broadleaf forest using MODIS. Remote Sensing of Environment 2006, 104:88-95.
3. Aono Y, Kazui K. Phenological data series of cherry tree flowering in Kyoto, Japan, and its application to reconstruction of springime temperatures since the 9th century. International Journal of Climatology 2008, 28:905-914.
4. Badeck F-W, Bondeau A, Böttcher K, Doktor D, Lucht W, Schaber J, Sitch S. Responses of spring phenology to climate change. New Phytologist 2004, 162:295-309.
5. Billington HL, Pelham J. Genetic variation in the date of budburst in Scottish birch populations: implications for climate change. Functional Ecology 1991, 5:403-409.
6. Botta A, Viovy N, Ciais P, Freidlingstein P, Monfray P. A global prognostic scheme of leaf onset using satellite data. Global Change Biology 2000, 6:709-725.
7. Cannell MR, Smith RI. Climatic warming, spring budburst and frost damage on trees. Journal of Applied Ecology 1986, 23:177-191.
8. Chuine I. A unified model for budburst of trees. Journal of Theoretical Biology 2000, 207:337-347.
9. Cox P. Description of the TRIFFID dynamic global vegetation model. 2001, Technical Report 24. Hadley Centre, Met Office
10. Dalen L, Hofgaard A. Differential regional treeline dynamics in the Scandes mountains. Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research 2005, 37:284-296.
11. Doi H, Katano I. Phenological timings of leaf budburst with climate change in Japan. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 2008, 148:512-516.
12. Doi H, Takahashi M. Latitudinal patterns in the phenological responses of leaf colouring and leaf fall to climate change in Japan. Global Ecology and Biogeography 2008, 17:556-561.
13. Eriksson G, Jonsson A. A review of the genetics of Betula. Scandinavian Journal of Forest Resources 1986, 1:421-34.
14. Fisher JI, Mustard JF, Vadeboncoeur MA. Green leaf phenology at Landsat resolution: scaling from the field to the satellite. Remote Sensing of Environment 2006, 100:265-279.
15. Fisher JI, Richardson AD, Mustard JF. Phenology model from surface meteorology does not capture satellite-based greenup estimations. Global Change Biology 2007, 13:707-721.
16. Gansert D, Backes K, Kakubari Y. Altitudinal and seaonal variation of frost resistance of Fagus crenata and Betula ermanii along the Pacific slope of Mt. Fuji, Japan. Journal of Ecology 1999, 87:382-390.
17. Givnish TJ. Adaptive significance of evergreen v. deciduous leaves: solving the triple paradox. Silva Fennica 2002, 36:703-743.
18. Hänninen H. Does climatic warming increase the risk of frost damage in northern trees? Plant, Cell and Environment 1991, 14:449-454.
19. Hänninnen H, Hari P. The implications of geographical variation in climate for differentiation of bud dormancy ecotypes in Scots Pine. Acta Foretalia Fennica 1996, 254:11-20.
20. Heide OM. High autumn temperature delays spring bud burst in boreal trees, counterbalancing the effect of climate warming. Tree Physiology 2003, 23:931-936.
21. Howe GT, Aitken SN, Neale DB, Jermstad KD, Wheeler NC, Chen THH. From genotype to phenotype: unraveling the complexities of cold adaptation in forest trees. Canadian Journal of Botany 2003, 81:1247-1266.
22. Hunter AF, Lechowicz MJ. Predicting the timing of budburst in temperate trees. Journal of Applied Ecology 1992, 29:597-604.
23. Johns TC, Durman CF, Banks HT. The new Hadley Centre climate model HadGEM1: evaluation of coupled simulations. Journal of Climate 2006, 19:1327-1353.
24. Jylhä K, Tuomenvirta H, Ruosteenoja K. Climate change projections for Finland during the 21st century. Boreal Environment Research 2004, 9:127-152.
25. Karlsen SR, Elvebakk A, Høgda KA, Johansen B. Satellite-based mapping of the growing season and bioclimatic zones in Fennoscandia. Global Ecology and Biogeography 2006, 15:416-430.
26. Karlsen SR, Solheim I, Beck PSA, Høgda KA, Wielgolaski FE, Tømmervik H. Variability of the start of the growing season in Fennoscandia, 1982-2002. International Journal of Biometeorology 2007, 51:513-524.
27. Karlsen SR, Tolvanen A, Kubin E. MODIS-NDVI-based mapping of the length of the growing season in northern Fennoscandia. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 2008, 10:253-266.
28. Karlsson PS, Bylund H, Neuvonen S, Heino S, Tjus M. Climatic response of budburst in the mountain birch at two areas in northern Fennoscandia and possible responses to global change. Ecography 2003, 26:617-625.
29. Kramer K. Phenotypic plasticity of the phenology of seven European tree species in relation to climatic warming. Plant, Cell and Environment 1995, 18:93-104.
30. Kucharik CJ, Barford CC, El Maayer M, Wofsy SC, Monson RK, Baldocchi BD. A multiyear evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model at three Ameriflux forest sites: vegetation structure, phenology, soil temperature and CO2 and H2O vapor exchange. Ecological Modelling 2006, 196:1-31.
31. Lechowicz MJ. Why do temperate deciduous trees leaf out at different times? Adaptation and ecology of forest communities. American Naturalist 1984, 126:821-842.
32. Leinonen I, Hänninen H. Adaptation of the timing of bud burst of Norway Spruce to temperate and boreal climates. Silva Fennica 2002, 36:695-701.
33. Linkosalo T, Häkkinen R, Hänninnen H. Models of the spring phenology of boreal and temperate trees: is there something missing? Tree Physiology 2006, 26:1165-1172.
34. Linkosalo T, Lappalainen HK, Hari P. A comparison of phenological models of leaf bud burst and flowering of boreal trees using independent observations. Tree Physiology 2008, 28:1873-1882.
35. Linkosalo T, Lechowicz MJ. Twilight far-red treatment advances leaf bud-burst of silver birch (Betula pendula). Tree physiology 2006, 26:1249-1256.
36. Lockhart JA. Optimum growth initiation time for shoot buds of deciduous plants in a temperate climate. Oecologia 1983, 60:34-37.
37. Menzel A. Trends in phenological phases in Europe between 1951 and 1996. International Journal of Biometeorology 2000, 40:76-81.
38. Menzel A, Estrella N, Fabian P. Spatial and temporal variability of the phenological seasons in Germany from 1951 to 1996. Global Change Biology 2001, 7:657-666.
39. Menzel A, Sparks TH, Estrella N. European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Global Change Biology 2006, 12:1969-1976.
40. Mitchell TD, Carter TR, Jones PD, Hulme M, New M. 2004, Tyndall Centre Working Paper 55. Tyndall Centre, UEA, Norwich, UK
41. Mjaaseth RR, Hagen SB, Yoccoz NG, Ims RA. Phenology and abundance in relation to climatic variation in a sub-arctic insect herbivore-mountain birch system. Oecologia 2005, 145:53-65.
42. Murray MB. Date of budburst of fifteen tree species in Britain following climatic warming. Journal of Applied Ecology 1989, 26:693-700.
43. Myking T, Heide OM. Dormancy release and chilling requirements of buds of latitudinal ecotypes of Betula pendula and B. pubescens. Tree physiology 1995, 15:697-704.
44. Myneni RB, Keeling CD, Tucker CJ, Asrar G, Nemani RR. Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991. Nature 1997, 386:698-702.
45. Nakicenovic N, Swart R. Emissions Scenarios. Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2000, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
46. Nordli O, Wielgolaski FE, Bakken AK, Hjeltnes SH, Måge F, Sivle A, Skre O. Regional trends for bud burst and flowering of woody plants in Norway as related to climate change. International Journal of Biometeorology 2008, 52:625-639.
47. Piao S, Fang J, Zhou L, Ciais P, Zhu B. Variation in satellite-derived phenology in China's temperate vegetation. Global Change Biology 2006, 12:672-685.
48. Picard G, Quegan S, Belbart N, Lomas MR, Le Toan T, Woodward FI. Bud-burst modelling in Siberia and its impact on quantifying the carbon budget. Global Change Biology 2005, 11:2164-2176.
49. Potter CS, Klooster SA. Dynamic global vegetation modelling for prediction of plant functional types and biogenic trace gas fluxes. Global Ecology and Biogeography 1999, 8:473-488.
50. Prozherina N, Freiwald V, Rousi M, Oksanen E. Interactive effect of springtime frost and elevated ozone on early growth, foliar injuries and leaf structure of birch (Betula pendula). New Phytologist 2003, 159:623-636.
51. Pudas E, Leppälä M, Tolvanen A, Poikolainen J, Venäläinen A, Kubin E. Trends in phenology of Betula pubescens across the boreal zone in Finland. International Journal of Biometeoroloy 2008, 52:251-259.
52. Rigby JR, Porporato A. Spring frost risk in a changing climate. Geophysical Research Letters 2008, 35. L12703, doi, 10.1029/2008GL033955
53. Ruohomäki K, Haukioja E, Repka S, Lehtilä K. Leaf value: effects of damage to individual leaves on growth and reproduction of mountain birch shoots. Ecology 1997, 78:2105-2117.
54. Schwartz MD, Ahas R, Aasa A. Onset of spring starting earlier across the northern hemisphere. Global Change Biology 2006, 12:343-351.
55. Shutova E, Wielgolaski FE, Karlsen SR. Growing seasons of Nordic mountain birch in northernmost Europe as indicated by long-term field studies and analyses of satellite images. International Journal of Biometeorology 2006, 51:155-166.
56. Siljamo P, Sofiev M, Ranta H. Representativeness of point-wise phenological Betula data collected in different parts of Europe. Global Ecology and Biogeography 2008, 17:489-502.
57. Skre O. Growth of mountain birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) in response to changing temperature. Forest Development in Cold Climates 1993, 65-78. Alden JMastrantonio JLØdum S. In, eds, pp, Plenum Press, New York
58. Slayback DA, Pinzon JE, Los SO, Tucker CJ. Northern Hemisphere photosynthetic trends 1982-99. Global Change Biology 2003, 9:1-15.
59. Stöckli R, Vidale PL. European plant phenology and climate as seen in a 20-year AVHRR land-surface parameter dataset. International Journal of Remote Sensing 2004, 25:3303-3330.
60. Tanja S, Berninger F, Vesala T. Air temperature triggers the recovery of evergreen boreal forest photosynthesis in spring. Global Change Biology 2003, 9:1410-1426.
61. Tape K, Sturm M, Racine C. The evidence for shrub expansion in Northern Alaska and the Pan-arctic. Global Change Biology 2006, 12:686-702.
62. Taulavuori KMJ, Taulavuori EB, Skre O, Nilsen J, Igeland B, Laine KM. Dehardening of mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) ecotypes at elevated winter temperatures. New Phytologist 2004, 16:427-436.
63. Thompson R, Clark RM. Spatio-temporal modelling and assessment of within-species phenological variability using thermal time methods. International Journal of Biometeorology 2006, 50:312-322.
64. Weih M, Karlsson PS. Variation in growth patterns among provenances, ecotypes and individuals of mountain birch. Nordic Mountain Birch Ecosystems 2001, 143-154. Wielgolaski FE, In, ed, pp, Parthenon, London
65. Wesolowski T, Rowinski P. Timing of bud burst and tree-leaf development in a multispecies temperate forest. Forest Ecology and Management 2006, 237:387-393.
66. White MA, Nemani RR. Real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting of land surface monitoring. Remote Sensing of Environment 2006, 104:43-49.
67. Wielgolaski FE. Climatic factors governing plant phenological phases along a Norwegian fjord. International Journal of Biometeorology 2003, 47:213-220.
68. Zar JH. Biostatistical Analysis 1996, 5th edn, Prentice-Hall International, London