Spatial assessment of predator-prey relationships in the North Sea: The influence of abiotic habitat properties on the spatial overlap between 0-group cod and grey gurnard

Fisheries Oceanography

Volumn 22, Issue 3, 2013, Pages 174-192

  Kempf, Alexander ^a   Stelzenmuller V ^a   Akimova, A ^a   Floeter, J ^b  

^a INSTITUT FÜR SEEFISCHEREI   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF HAMBURG   (Germany)

Author keywords

Cod; Generalized additive models; Grey gurnard; Regression kriging; Spatial overlap; Species distribution model

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; ANNUAL VARIATION; ASSESSMENT METHOD; CLIMATE CHANGE; FISH; FISHERY MANAGEMENT; HABITAT TYPE; KRIGING; MARINE ECOSYSTEM; NUMERICAL MODEL; POPULATION DENSITY; PREDATOR-PREY INTERACTION; SALINITY; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; TEMPERATURE EFFECT;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; NORTH SEA; SKAGERRAK;

EUTRIGLA GURNARDUS; GADUS MORHUA;

EID: 84875799312     PISSN: 10546006     EISSN: 13652419     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/fog.12013     Document Type: Article

References (101)

1. Akaike, H. (1973) Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. In: Second International Symposium on Information Theory. Petrov B.N. and Csaki F. (eds) Budapest: Akadémiai Kiadó, pp. 267-281.
2. Anderson, P.J. and Piatt, J.F. (1999) Community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska following ocean climate regime shift. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 189:117-123.
3. Araújo, M.B. and Peterson, A.T. (2012) Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling. Ecology 93:1527-1539.
4. Beale, C.M., Lennon, J.J. and Gimona, A. (2008) Opening the climate envelope reveals no macroscale associations with climate in European birds. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105:14908-14912.
5. Beaugrand, G., Brander, K., Lindley, J.A., Souissi, S. and Reid, P.C. (2003) Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the North Sea. Nature 426:661-664.
6. Bjornstad, O.N. (2009) R package 'ncf': Spatial nonparametric covariance functions. Version 1.1. Available online at cran.rproject.org/web/packages/ncf/index.html. [accessed August 2011].
7. Bjornstad, O.N. and Falck, W. (2001) Nonparametric spatial covariance functions:estimation and testing. Environ. Ecol. Stat. 8:53-70.
8. Cheung, W.W.L., Lam, V.W.Y. and Pauly, D. (2008) Dynamic bioclimate envelope model to predict climate-induced changes in distribution of marine fishes and invertebrates. In: Modelling Present and Climate-Shifted Distributions of Marine Fishes and Invertebrates. Fisheries Centre Research Reports 16(3). W.W.L. Cheung, V.W.Y. Lam & D. Pauly (eds) Vancouver: University of British Columbia, pp. 5-50.
9. Cheung, W.W.L., Lam, V.W.Y., Sarmiento, J.L. et al. (2010) Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change. Glob. Chang. Biol. 16:24-35.
10. Christensen, V. and Walters, C.J. (2004) Ecopath with Ecosim: methods, capabilities and limitations. Ecol. Model. 172:109-139.
11. Ciannelli, L., Dingsør, G.E., Bogstad, B. et al. (2007) Spatial anatomy of species survival: effects of predation and climate-driven environmental variability. Ecology 88:635-646.
12. Ciannelli, L., Fauchald, P., Chan, K.S., Agostini, V.N. and Dingsør, G.E. (2008) Spatial fisheries ecology: recent progress and future prospects. J. Mar. Syst. 71:223-236.
13. Creel, S. and Christianson, D. (2008) Relationships between direct predation and risk effects. Trends Ecol. Evol. 23:194-201.
14. Cressie, N.A.C. (1991) Statistics for Spatial Data. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 900 pp.
15. Cressie, N. and Hawkins, D.M. (1980) Robust estimation of the variogram. Math. Geol. 12:115-125.
16. Daewel, U., Peck, M.A. and Schrum, C. (2011) Life history strategy and impacts of environmental variability on early life stages of two marine fishes in the North Sea: an individual-based modelling approach. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 68:426-443.
17. Dambach, J. and Rödder, D. (2011) Applications and future challenges in marine species distribution modeling. Aquat. Conserv.: Mar. Freshwat. Ecosyst. 21:92-100.
18. Davis, A.J., Jenkinson, L.S., Lawton, J.L., Shorrocks, B. and Wood, S. (1998a) Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming. Nature 391:783-786.
19. Davis, A.J., Lawton, J.L., Shorrocks, B. and Jenkinson, L.S. (1998b) Individualistic species responses invalidate simple physiological models of community dynamics under global environmental change. J. Anim. Ecol. 67:600-612.
20. Drinkwater, K. (2005) The response of Atlantic cod to future climate change. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 62:1327-1337.
21. Dulvy, N.K., Rogers, S.I., Jennings, S., Stelzenmüller, V., Dye, S.R. and Skjoldal, H.R. (2008) Climate change and deepening of the North Sea fish assemblage: a biotic indicator of warming seas. J. Appl. Ecol. 45:1029-1039.
22. Ehrich, S., Stelzenmüller, V. and Adlerstein, S. (2009) Linking spatial pattern of bottom fish assemblages with water masses in the North Sea. Fish. Oceanogr. 18:36-50.
23. Ellis, J.R., Rogers, S.I. and Freeman, S.M. (2000) Demersal assemblages in the Irish Sea, St George's Channel and Bristol Channel. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 51:299-315.
24. Fauchald, P. (2009) Spatial interaction between seabirds and prey: review and synthesis. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 391:139-151.
25. Fauchald, P., Erikstad, K.E. and Skarsfjord, H. (2000) Scale-dependent predator-prey interactions: the hierarchical spatial distribution of seabirds and prey. Ecology 81:773-783.
26. Floeter, J., Kempf, A., Vinther, M., Schrumm, C. and Temming, A. (2005) Grey gurnard (Eutriglia gurnardus) in the North Sea: an emerging key predator. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 62:1853-1864.
27. Fox, C.J., Taylor, M., Dickey-Collas, M. et al. (2008) Mapping North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) spawning grounds using direct and indirect methods. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 275:1543-1548.
28. Froese, R., Branch, T.A., Proelß, A., Quaas, M., Sainsbury, K. and Zimmermann, C. (2010) Generic harvest control rules for European fisheries. Fish Fish. (Oxf) 12:340-351.
29. Fulton, E.A., Fuller, M., Smith, A.D.M. and Punt, A.E. (2004) Ecological indicators of the ecosystem effects of fishing: final report. Australian Fisheries Management Authority Report. R99/1546: pp116.
30. Gaertner, J.C., Bertrand, J.A., de Sola, L.G., Durbec, J.P., Ferrandis, E. and Souplet, A. (2005) Large spatial scale variation of demersal fish assemblage structure on the continental shelf of the NW Mediterranean Sea. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 297:245-257.
31. Garcia, S. M., Zerbi, A., Aliaume, C., Do Chi, T. and Lasserre, G. (2003) The ecosystem approach to fisheries. Issues, terminology, principles, institutional foundations, implementation and outlook. FAO Fish. Tech. Paper 443.
32. de Gee, A. and Kikkert, A.H. (1993) Analysis of the grey gurnard (Eutrigla gurnardus) samples collected during the 1991 International Stomach Sampling Project. ICES CM Demersal Fish Committee G: 14.
33. Graham, M. and Carruthers, J.N. (1925) The distribution of pelagic stages of the cod in the North Sea in 1928 in relation to the system of current. Fish. Investig Lond. Ser. II vol VIII:1-31.
34. Guisan, A. and Zimmermann, N.E. (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol. Model. 135:147-186.
35. Hastie, T. and Tibshirani, R. (1986) Generalized additive models. Stat. Sci. 1:297-318.
36. Heino, M., Engelhard, G.H. and Godø, O.R. (2008) Migrations and hydrography determine the abundance fluctuations of blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) in the Barents Sea. Fish. Oceanogr. 17:153-163.
37. Helgason, T. and Gislason, H. (1979) VPA-analysis with species interaction due to predation. ICES CM 1979/G: 52.
38. Hengl, T., Heuvelink, G.B.M. and Rossiter, D.G. (2007) About regression-kriging: from equations to case studies. Comput. Geosci. 33:1301-1315.
39. Hislop, J. R. G., Bromley, P. J., Daan, N. et al. (1997) Database Report of the Stomach Sampling Project 1991. ICES Cooperative Res. Rep. 219.
40. Hjøllo, S.S., Skogen, M.D. and Svendsen, E. (2009) Exploring currents and heat within the North Sea using a numerical model. J. Mar. Syst. 78:180-192.
41. Hsieh, C.H. and Chiu, T.S. (2002) Summer spatial distribution of copepods and fish larvae in relation to hydrography in the Northern Taiwan Strait. Zool. Stud. 41:85-98.
42. Huse, G., Salthaug, A. and Skogen, M.D. (2008) Indications of a negative impact of herring on recruitment of Norway pout. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 65:906-911.
43. Hutchinson, G.E. (1957) Concluding remarks. Cold Spring Harb. Symp. Quant. Biol. 22:415-457.
44. ICES. (2002) Report of the workshop on MSVPA in the North Sea. ICES CM 2002/D: 04.
45. ICES. (2008) Report of the Working Group on Multispecies Assessment Methods (WGSAM). ICES CM 2008/RMC: 06.
46. ICES. (2010a) Report of the Workshop on Implementing the ICES FMSY framework (WKFRAME). ICES CM 2010/ACOM:54.
47. ICES. (2010b) Report of the Working Group on the Assessment of Demersal Stocks in the North Sea and Skagerrak (WGNSSK). ICES CM 2010/ACOM:13.
48. ICES. (2010c) Manual for the International Bottom Trawl Surveys Reviision VIII. ICES CM 2010/ADDENDUM 1.
49. ICES. (2011a) Report of the Working Group on Multispecies Assessment Methods (WGSAM). ICES CM 2011/SSGSUE:10.
50. ICES. (2011b) Report of the Working Group on the Assessment of Demersal Stocks in the North Sea and Skagerrak (WGNSSK). ICES CM 2011/ACOM:13.
51. ICES. (2011c) Report of the Baltic Fisheries Assessment Working Group (WGBFAS). ICES CM 2011/ACOM: 10.
52. Isaaks, E.H. and Srivastava, R.M. (1989) An Introduction to Applied Gesostatistics. New York: Oxford University Press, p 561.
53. Kaluzny, S.P., Vega, S.C., Cardoso, T.P. and Shelly, A.A. (1998) S+ Spatial Stats User's Manual for Windows and UNIX. New York: Springer-Verlag, p 327.
54. Kempf, A., Floeter, J. and Temming, A. (2006) Decadal changes in the North Sea food web between 1981 and 1991: implications for fish stock assessment. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 63:2586-2602.
55. Kempf, A., Floeter, J. and Temming, A. (2008) Predator prey overlap induced Holling Type III feeding response in the North Sea fish assemblage. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 367:295-308.
56. Kempf, A., Floeter, J. and Temming, A. (2009) Recruitment of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) and Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) between 1992 and 2006: the interplay between climate influence and predation. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 66:633-648.
57. Kempf, A., Dingsør, G.E., Huse, G., Vinther, M., Floeter, J. and Temming, A. (2010) The importance of predator-prey overlap: predicting North Sea cod recovery with a multispecies assessment model. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 67:1989-1997.
58. Knutsen, H., André, C., Jorde, P.E., Skogen, M.D., Thuroczy, E. and Stenseth, N.C. (2004) Transport of North Sea cod larvae into the Skagerrak coastal populations. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 271:1337-1344.
59. Lewy, P. and Vinther, M. (2004) A stochastic age-length-structured multispecies model applied to North Sea stocks. ICES CM 2004/FF: 20.
60. Link, J.S., Nye, J.A. and Hare, J.A. (2011) Guidelines for incorporating fish distribution shifts into a fisheries management context. Fish Fish. 12:461-469.
61. Mackinson, S., Deas, B., Beveridge, D. and Casey, J. (2009) Mixed-fishery or ecosystem conundrum? Multispecies considerations inform thinking on long-term management of North Sea demersal stocks. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 66:1107-1129.
62. Magnussen, E. (2002) Demersal fish assemblages of Faroe Bank: species composition, distribution, biomass spectrum and diversity. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 238:211-225.
63. Maxwell, D.L., Stelzenmüller, V., Eastwood, P.D. and Rogers, S.I. (2009) Modelling the spatial distribution of plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), sole (Solea solea) and thornback ray (Raja clavata) in UK waters for marine management and planning. J. Sea Res. 61:258-267.
64. Menge, B.A. and Olson, A.M. (1990) Role of scale and environmental factors in regulation of community structure. Trends Ecol. Evol. 5:52-57.
65. Mueter, F.J. and Litzow, M.A. (2008) Sea ice retreat alters the biogeography of the Bering Sea continental shelf. J. Appl. Ecol. 18:309-320.
66. Mueter, F.J. and Megrey, B.A. (2006) Using multispecies surplus production models to estimate ecosystem-level maximum sustainable yield. Fish. Res. 81:189-201.
67. Munk, P., Larsson, P.O., Danielsen, D. and Moksness, E. (1995) Larval and small juvenile cod Gadus morhua concentrated in the highly productive areas of a shelf break front. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 125:21-30.
68. Munk, P., Larsson, P.O., Danielssen, D.S. and Moksness, E. (1999) Variability in frontal zone formation and distribution of gadoid fish larvae at the shelf break in the northeastern North Sea. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 177:221-233.
69. Munk, P., Wright, P.J. and Pihl, N.J. (2002) Distribution of the early larval stages of cod, plaice and lesser sandeel across haline fronts in the North Sea. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 55:139-149.
70. Nye, J.A., Link, J.S., Hare, J.A. and Overholtz, W.J. (2009) Changing spatial distribution of fish stocks in relation to climate and population size on the Northeast United States continental shelf. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 393:111-129.
71. Otto, L., Zimmerman, J.T.F., Furnes, G.K., Mork, M., Saetre, R. and Becker, G. (1990) Review of the physical oceanography of the North Sea. Neth. J. Sea Res. 26:161-238.
72. Pearson, R.G. and Dawson, T.P. (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 12:361-371.
73. Peck, M.A. and Hufnagl, M. (2012) Can IBMs tell us why most larvae die in the sea? Model sensitivities and scenarios reveal research needs. J. Mar. Syst. 93:77-93.
74. Perry, A.L., Low, P.J., Ellis, J.R. and Reynolds, J.D. (2005) Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science 308:1912-1915.
75. Pierce, D.J. and Mahmoudi, B. (2001) Nearshore fish assemblages along the central west coast of Florida. Bull. Mar. Sci. 68:243-270.
76. Planque, B., Loots, C., Petitgas, P., Lindstrom, U. and Vaz, S. (2011) Understanding what controls the spatial distribution of fish populations using a multi-model approach. Fish. Oceanogr. 20:1-17.
77. Pope, J.G. (1979) A modified cohort analysis in which constant natural mortality is replaced by estimates of predation levels. ICES CM 1979/H: 16: 8 pp.
78. Poulsen, E.M. (1931) Biological investigations upon the cod in Danish waters. Medd. Kom. Dan. Fisk. Havunders., Fisk. 9:1-148.
79. Ribeiro, J.R. and Diggle, P.J. (2001) geoR: A package for geostatistical analysis. R-NEWS Vol. 1, No. 2. ISSN 1609-3631.
80. Rice, J. (2011) Managing fisheries well: delivering the promises of an ecosystem approach. Fish Fish. 12:209-231.
81. Rindorf, A. and Lewy, P. (2006) Warm, windy winters drive cod north and homing of spawners keeps them there. J. Appl. Ecol. 43:445-453.
82. Robertson, G.P. and Freckmann, D.W. (1995) The spatial distribution of nematode trophic groups across a cultivated ecosystem. Ecology 765:1425-1432.
83. Robinson, L.M., Elith, J., Hobday, A.J. et al. (2011) Pushing the limits in marine species distribution modelling: lessons from the land present challenges and opportunities. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 20:789-802.
84. Rogers, S.I. and Millner, R.S. (1996) Factors affecting the annual abundance and regional distribution of English inshore demersal fish populations: 1973 to 1995. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 53:1094-1112.
85. Rose, G.A. and Leggett, W.C. (1990) The importance of scale to predator-prey spatial correlations: an example of Atlantic fishes. Ecology 71:33-43.
86. Schoener, T.W. (1970) Non-synchronous spatial overlap of lizards in patchy environments. Ecology 51:408-418.
87. Sih, A. (2005) Predator-prey space use as an emergent outcome of a behavioral response race. In Ecology of Predator-Prey Interactions. P. Barbosa & I. Castellanos (eds) New York: Oxford University Press, pp 240-255.
88. Sih, A. and Wooster, D.E. (1994) Prey behavior, prey dispersal, and predator impacts on stream prey. Ecology 75:1199-1207.
89. Soberón, J. (2007) Grinnellian and Eltonian niches and geographic distributions of species. Ecol. Lett. 10:1115-1123.
90. Stelzenmüller, V., Maynou, F. and Martín, P. (2007) Spatial assessment of benefits of a coastal Mediterranean Marine Protected Area. Biol. Conserv. 136:571-583.
91. Stelzenmüller, V., Maynou, F., Bernard, G. et al. (2008) Spatial assessment of fishing effort around European marine reserves: implications for successful fisheries management. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 56:2018-2026.
92. Svedäng, H. (2003) The inshore demersal fish community on the Swedish Skagerrak coast: regulation by recruitment from offshore sources. ICES J Mar Res. 60:23-31.
93. Svedäng, H. and Svenson, A. (2006) Cod (Gadus morhua L.) populations as behavioural units: inference from time series on juvenile cod abundance in the Skagerrak. J. Fish Biol. 69(Suppl C):1-14.
94. Sykes, M.T., Prentice, I.C. and Cramer, W. (1996) A bioclimatic model for the potential distributions of north European tree species under present and future climates. J. Biogeogr. 23:203-233.
95. Temming, A., Floeter, J. and Ehrich, S. (2007) Predation hot spots: large-scale impact of local aggregations. Ecosystems 10:865-876.
96. Venables, W.N. and Dichmont, C.M. (2004) A generalised linear model for catch allocation: an example from Australia's northern prawn fishery. Fish. Res. 70:409-426.
97. Walters, C., Pauly, D. and Christensen, V. (1999) Ecospace: prediction of mesoscale spatial patterns in trophic relationships of exploited ecosystems, with emphasis on the impacts of marine protected areas. Ecosystems 2:539-554.
98. Walters, C.J., Christensen, V., Martell, S.J. and Kitchell, J.F. (2005) Possible ecosystem impacts of applying MSY policies from single-species assessment. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 62:558-568.
99. Werner, E.E. and Gilliam, J.F. (1984) The ontogenetic niche and species interactions in size-structured populations. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 15:393-425.
100. Wood, S. (2010) mgcv: GAMs with GCV/AIC/REML smoothness estimation and GAMMs by PQL. Available at: http://cran.r-project.org/package=mgcv. [accessed August 2011].
101. Wright, P. J., Neat, F. C., Gibb, F. M., Gibb, I. M. and Thordarson, H. (2006) Evidence for metapopulation structuring in cod from the west of Scotland and North Sea. J. Fish Biol. 69(Suppl. C):181-199.