A bioclimatic model for the potential distributions of north European tree species under present and future climates

Journal of Biogeography

Volumn 23, Issue 2, 1996, Pages 203-233

  Sykes, Martin T ^a   Prentice, I Colin ^a   Cramer, Wolfgang ^b  

^a LUND UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^b POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

Author keywords

Bioclimatology; Chilling requirement; Climate change; Forest model; Individualism; Range limit; Response function; Seasonality; Smoothing spline

Indexed keywords

BIOCLIMATIC MODEL; CARBON DIOXIDE ENRICHMENT;

EUROPE, (NORTH);

ABIES; FAGACEAE; FAGUS; FAGUS SYLVATICA; PICEA ABIES; PINACEAE;

EID: 0030304341     PISSN: 03050270     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-2699.1996.d01-221.x     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Almgren, G., Ingelög, T., Ehnström, B. & Mörtnäs, A. (1984) Ädellovskog-ekologi och skötsel. Skogstyrelsen, Stockholm.
2. Bartlein, P.J., Prentice, I.C. & Webb, T., III (1986) Climatic response surfaces from pollen data for some eastern North American taxa. J. Biogeogr. 13, 35-57.
3. Bennett, K.D. (1984) The post-glacial history of Pinus sylvestris in the British Isles. Quat Sci. Rev. 3, 133-155
4. Bonan, G.B. & Sirois, L. (1991) Air temperature, tree growth and the northern and southern range limits to Picea mariana. J. Veg. Sci. 3, 495-506
5. Botkin, D.B., Janak, J.K., & Wallis, J.R., (1972) Some ecological consequences of a computer model of forest growth. J. Ecol 60, 849-872.
6. Botkin, D.B. & Nisbet, R.A. (1992) Forest response to climatic change: effects of parameter estimation and choice of weather patterns on the reliability of projections. Clim. Change, 20, 87-111.
7. Canneli, M.G.R. & Smith, R.I (1983) Thermal time, chill days and prediction of budburst in Picea sitchensis. J. appl. Ecol. 20. 951-963.
8. Cannell, M.G.R. & Smith, R.I. (1986) Climatic warming, spring budbuist and frost damage of trees. J. appl. Ecol 23, 177-191.
9. Cook, E.R. & Cole, J. (1991) On predicting the response of forests in eastern North America to future climatic change. Clim. Change, 19, 271-282.
10. Cramer, W. & Prentice, I.C. (1988) Simulation of regional soil moisture deficits on a European scale. Norsk Geogr. Tidsskr 42, 149-151.
11. Dahl, E (1980) Relations entre la répartition des plantes dans la nature et les facteurs climatiques. Université de Grenoble I, Grenoble.
12. Dahl, E. (1990) Probable effects of climatic change due to the greenhouse effect on plant productivity and survival in North Europe. Effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems (ed. by J.I. Holten, G. Paulsen and W.C. Oechel), pp 81-83. Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Trondheim.
13. Dahl, E. & Mork, E. (1959) On the relationships between temperature, respiration and growth in Norway spruce. Meddele. norske Skogsforseks. 53, 83-93.
14. Davis, M B.(1990) Research questions posed by the paleoecological record of global change. Global changes of the past (ed. by R.S. Bradley), pp. 385-396. UCAR/Office for Interdisciplinary Earth Studies, Boulder.
15. Gates. W L., Mitchell, J.F.B., Boer, G.J., Cubasch, U. & Meleshko, V.P. (1992) Climate modelling, climate prediction and model validation. Climate change 1992: the supplementary report to the IPCC scientific assessment (ed. by J.T. Houghton, B.A Callander and S.K. Varney), pp. 97-134. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
16. Grace, J. (1987) Climatic tolerances and the distribution of plants. New Phytol. 106 (suppl.), 113-130.
17. 2 WP-90-27. IIASA, Laxenburg
18. Hintikka, V. (1963) Über das Grossklima einiger Pflanzenareale in zwei Klimakoordinatensystemen dargestellt. Ann. Bot Soc. Vanamo 34, 64 pp.
19. Houghton, J.T., Jenkins, G J. & Ephraums, J.J (eds) (1990) Climate change, the IPCC scientific assessment Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
20. Hultén. E. & Fries, M. (1986) Atlas of North European vascular plants north of the Tropic of Cancer. Vols 1-3. Koeltz Scientific Books. Konigstein.
21. Huntley, B. (1988) Glacial and Holocene vegetation history Europe. Vegetation history (ed. by B. Huntley and T. Webb III), pp 341-384. Kluwer, Dordrecht.
22. Huntley, B. & Birks, H.J.B. (1983) An atlas of past and present pollen maps for Europe: 0-13 000 years ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
23. Huntley, B. & Prentice, I.C. (1994) Holocene vegetation and climates of Europe Global climates since the last Glacial Maximum (ed. by H.E. Wright, Jr, J.E. Kutzbach, T. Webb III, W.F. Ruddiman, F.A. Street-Perrott and P J. Bartlein), in press. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis.
24. Huntley, B , Bartlein, P.J. & Prentice, I.C. (1989) Climatic control of the distribution and abundance of beech in Europe and North America. J. Biogeogr. 16, 551-560.
25. Hutchinson, M.F. (1989) A new objective method for spatial interpolation of meteorological variables from irregular networks applied to the estimation of monthly mean solar radiation, temperature, precipitation and windrun. Need for climatic and hydrologic data in agriculture in southeast Asia. CSIRO, Canberra.
26. Iversen, J. (1944) Viscum, Hedera and Ilex as climate indicators. A contribution to the study of post-glacial temperature climate. Geol. Fören. Stockholm Förhandl 66, 463-483.
27. Jalas, J. & Suominen, J. (1972-1991) Atlas Florae Europaeae: distribution of vascular plants in Europe. Vols 1-9. Akatceminen Kirjakauppa, Helsinki.
28. Lagerberg, T. & Sjörs, H. (1962) Trädkännedom. Skogshögskolan. Stockholm.
29. Larcher, W. (1983) Physiological plant ecology, 2nd edn. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
30. Leemans, R & Cramer, W. (1991) The IIASA climate database for mean monthly values of temperature, precipitation and cloudiness on a terrestrial grid. RR-91-18, IIASA, Laxenburg.
31. Manabe, S. & Wetherald, R.T. (1987) Large scale changes in soil wetness induced by an increase in carbon dioxide J. Atmos. Sci 44, 1211-1235.
32. Meusel, H., Jäger, E. & Weinert, E. (1965) Vergleichende Chorologie der Zentraleuropäischen Flora, Vol. 1. Gustav Fischer, Jena.
33. Meusel, H , Jäger, E., Weinert, E & Rauschert, S.T. (1978) Vergleichende Chorologie der Zentraleuropäischen Flora, Vol. 2. Gustav Fischer, Jena.
34. Meusel, H., Jäger, E. (1992) Vergleichende Chorologie der Zentraleuropäischen Flora, Vol. 3. Gustav Fischer, Jena.
35. Murray, N.B., Cannell, M.G.R. & Smith, I. (1989) Date of budburst of fifteen tree species in Britain following climatic warming. J. appl Ecol. 26, 693-700.
36. 2, nutrition and climatic warming on bud phenology in Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) and their impact on the risk of frost damage. Tree Physiol. 14, 691-706.
37. Pastor, J. & Post, W.M. (1985) Development of a linked forest productivity-soil carbon and nitrogen model. ORNL/TM-9519, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge.
38. Piggott, C.D. & Huntley, J.P (1981) Factors controlling the distribution of Tilia cordata at the northern limits of its geographical range. III. Nature and causes of seed sterility. New Phytol. 87, 817-839.
39. Prentice, I.C. (1986) Vegetation response to past climatic variation. Vegetatio, 67, 131-141.
40. Prentice, I.C. & Helmisaari, H. (1991) Silvics of north European trees: compilation, comparisons and implications for forest succession modelling. For. Ecol Mgmnt, 42, 79-93.
41. Prentice, I.C , Cramer, W. Harrison, S.P., Leemans, R., Monserud, R.A. & Solomon, A.M. (1992) A global model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. J Biogeogr. 19, 117-134.
42. Prentice, I.C., Bartlein, P.J. & Webb, T., III. (1991a) Vegetation and climate changes in eastern North America since the last glacial maximum. Ecology, 72, 2038-2056
43. Prentice, I.C., Sykes, M.T. & Cramer, W (1991b) The possible dynamic response of northern forests to global warming Global Ecol. Biogeogr Letts. 1, 129-135
44. Prentice, I.C., Sykes, M.T. & Cramer, W. (1993) A simulation model for the transient effects of climate change on forest landscapes. Ecol. Modelling, 65, 51-70.
45. Robertson, S.U (1976) The possible role of natural regeneration in Scottish forestry. Scottish Forestry, 30, 134-142.
46. Sakai, A & Weiser, C.J. (1973) Freezing resistance of trees in North America with reference to tree regions. Ecology, 54, 118-126.
47. Schlesinger, M.E. & Mitchell, J.F.B. (1985) Model projections of the equilibrium climatic response to increased carbon dioxide. Projecting the climatic effects of increasing carbon dioxide (ed. by M.C MacCracken and F.M. Lather), pp. 81-148. US-DOE/ER-0237
48. 2 as simulated by the OSU atmospheric GCM/mixed layer ocean model. J Climate, 2, 459-495.
49. Schneider, S.H. (1993) Can paleoclimatic and paleoecological analyses validate future global climate and ecological change projections? Global changes in the perspective of the past (ed. by J.A. Eddy and H. Oeschger), pp. 317-342. Wiley, Chichester.
50. Shugart, H.H. (1984) A theory of forest dynamics. Springer, Berlin.
51. 2-induced climate change. simulation modeling experiments in eastern North America. Oecologia, 68, 567-579.
52. Skre, O. (1972) High temperature demands for growth and development in Norway Spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) in Scandinavia. Meldinger Norges Landbrukshögskole, S1, 29 pp.
53. Skre, O. (1979) The accumulated annual respiration as a measure of energy demands for growth in some Scandinavian plants. The use of ecological variables in environmental monitoring, SNV PM-1151, The National Swedish Environmental Protection Board, Stockholm.
54. Skre, O. (1990) Consequences of possible climatic temperature changes for plant production and growth in alpine and subalpine areas in Fennoscandia. Effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems (ed. by J.I. Holten), NINA Notat. 4, pp. 18-37. Norwegian Institute for Nature Research. Trondheim.
55. Stephenson, N.L. (1990) Climatic control of vegetation distribution. the role of the water balance. Am. Nat. 125, 649-670.
56. Sykes, M.T. & Prentice, I.C (1995). Boreal forest futures: modelling the controls on species range limits and transient responses to climate change. Submitted to Water, Air and Soil Pollution, 82, 415-428.
57. Wolfe, J.A. (1979) Temperature parameters of humid to mesic forests of eastern Asia and relation to other regions of the northern hemisphere and Australasia. Prof. Pap. U.S. geol. Surv. 1106, 37 pp
58. Woodward, F.I. (1987) Climate and plant distribution. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
59. Woodward, F.I. (1988) Temperature and the distribution of plant species. Plants and temperature (ed. by S.P. Long and F.I. Woodward), Sympo. Soc. Exp. Biol. 42, 59-75.