Predicted habitat shifts of Pacific top predators in a changing climate

Nature Climate Change

Volumn 3, Issue 3, 2013, Pages 234-238

  Hazen, Elliott L ^a,b   Jorgensen, Salvador ^c   Rykaczewski, Ryan R ^d   Bograd, Steven J ^a   Foley, David G ^a,b   Jonsen, Ian D ^e   Shaffer, Scott A ^f   Dunne, John P ^g   Costa, Daniel P ^h   Crowder, Larry B ⁱ   Block, Barbara A ⁱ  

^a NOAA SOUTHWEST FISHERIES SCIENCE CENTER   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

^c MONTEREY BAY AQUARIUM   (United States)

^d PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^e DALHOUSIE UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^f SAN JOSE STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^g NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^h UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

ⁱ STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; DATABASE; ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT; HABITAT CONSERVATION; HABITAT LOSS; MARINE ECOSYSTEM; PELAGIC ECOSYSTEM; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE;

EID: 84874622314     PISSN: 1758678X     EISSN: 17586798     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1686     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Rosenzweig, C. et al. Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature 453, 353-357 (2008)
2. IPCC Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (eds Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R. K. & Reisinger, A.) (IPCC, 2007); available at www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4-syr.pdf.
3. Worm, B. & Tittensor, D.P. Range contraction in large pelagic predators. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 11942-11947 (2011)
4. Myers, R. A. et al. Cascading effects of the loss of apex predatory sharks from a coastal ocean. Science 315, 1846-1850 (2007)
5. Estes, J. A. et al. Trophic downgrading of planet earth. Science 333, 301-306 (2011)
6. Parmesan, C. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Ann. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 37, 637-669 (2006)
7. Burrows, M. T. et al. The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Science 334, 652-655 (2011)
8. Thomas, C. et al. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427, 145-148 (2004)
9. Pörtner, H. O. & Knust, R. Climate change affects marine fishes through the oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance. Science 315, 95-97 (2007)
10. O'Connor, M. I. et al. Warming and resource availability shift metabolism of a marine food web. PLoS Bio. 7, e1000178 (2009)
11. Block, B. A. et al. Tracking apex marine predator movements in a dynamic ocean. Nature 475, 86-90 (2011)
12. Delworth, T. L. et al. GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics. J. Clim. 19, 643-674 (2006)
13. Stock, C. A. et al. On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on living marine resources. Prog. Ocean. 88, 1-27 (2010)
14. Polovina, J. J. et al. Projected expansion of the subtropical biome and contraction of the temperate and equatorial upwelling biomes in the North Pacific under global warming. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 68, 986-995 (2011)
15. Harley, C. D. G. Climate change, keystone predation, and biodiversity loss. Science 334, 1124-1127 (2011)
16. Hsieh, C. H. et al. Fishing elevates variability in the abundance of exploited species. Nature 443, 859-862 (2006)
17. Cheung, W. W. L. et al. Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 16, 24-35 (2010)
18. Hamann, M. et al. Global research priorities for sea turtles: informing management and conservation in the 21st century. End. Spec. Res. 11, 245-269 (2010)
19. Weimerskirch, H. et al. Changes in wind pattern alter albatross distribution and life-history traits. Science 335, 211-214 (2012)
20. Baker, J. D., Littnan, C. L. & Johnston, D. W. Potential effects of sea level rise on the terrestrial habitats of endangered and endemic megafauna in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. End. Spec. Res. 3, 21-30 (2007)
21. Calambokidis, J., Barlow, J. & Ford, J. Insights into the population structure of blue whales in the Eastern North Pacific from recent sightings and photographic identification. Mar. Mam. Sci. 25, 816-832 (2009)
22. Zydelis, R. et al. Dynamic habitat models: Using telemetry data to project fisheries bycatch. Proc. R. Soc. B 278, 3191-3200 (2011)
23. Stramma, L. et al. Ocean oxygen minima expansions and their biological impacts. Deep-Sea Res. I 57, 587-595 (2010)
24. Lubchenco, J. & Sutley, N. Proposed US policy for ocean, coast, and Great Lakes Stewardship. Science 328, 1485-1486 (2010)
25. Brierley, A. & Kingsford, M. Impacts of climate change on marine organisms and ecosystems. Curr. Biol. 19, R602-R614 (2009)
26. Dawson, T. P. et al. Beyond predictions: Biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science 332, 53-58 (2011)
27. Game, et al. Pelagic protected areas: The missing dimension in ocean conservation. TREE 24, 360-369 (2009)
28. Lehodey, P. et al. Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario. Prog. Ocean. 86, 302-315 (2010)
29. Tittensor, D. P. et al. Global patterns and predictors of marine biodiversity across taxa. Nature 466, 1098-1101 (2010)
30. Elith, J. & Leathwick, J. R. Species distribution models: Ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Ann. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 40, 677-697 (2009).