A new approach to combine climate change projections by ordered weighting averaging operator; applications to northwestern provinces of Iran

Global and Planetary Change

Volumn 102, Issue , 2013, Pages 41-50

  Amir Rahmani, Mohammad ^a   Zarghami, Mahdi ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TABRIZ   (Iran)

Author keywords

Climate change; Combining; Downscaling; Fuzzy quantifiers; General climate models; Northwestern Iran; Ordered weighted averaging operator

Indexed keywords

COMBINING; DOWN-SCALING; FUZZY QUANTIFIERS; NORTHWESTERN IRAN; ORDERED WEIGHTED AVERAGING OPERATOR;

CLIMATE MODELS; DECISION MAKING; ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT; LASERS; STATISTICAL METHODS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; DECISION MAKING; DOWNSCALING; EMISSION; ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT; FUZZY MATHEMATICS; PRECISION; PUBLIC ATTITUDE; RISK ASSESSMENT; SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

IRAN;

EID: 84874579562     PISSN: 09218181     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.01.007     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Abbaspour K.C., Faramarzi M., Ghasemi S.S., Yang H. Assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources in Iran. Water Resources Research 2009, 45:W10434. 10.1029/2008WR007615.
2. Andersson J.W., Todd M.C., Hughes D.A., Earle A., Kniveton D., Layberry R., Savenije Hubert H.G. Impact of climate change and development scenarios on flow patterns in the Okavango River. Journal of Hydrology 2006, 331(1-2):43-57.
3. Arnell N.W., Livermore M.J.L., Kovats S., Levy P.E., Nicholls R., Parry M.L., Gaffin S.R. Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impacts assessments: characterizing the SRES storylines. Global Environmental Change 2004, 14(1):3-20.
4. Beyene T., Lettenmaier D.P., Kabat P. Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin: implications of the 2007 IPCC scenario. Climatic Change 2010, 100(3-4):433-461.
5. Brekke L.D., Maurer E.P., Anderson J.D., Dettinger M.D., Townsley E.S., Harrison A., Pruitt T. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change. Water Resources Research 2009, 45:W04411. 10.1029/2008WR006941.
6. Buser C.M., Künsch H.R., Lüthi D., Wild M., Schär C. Bayesian multi-model projection of climate: bias assumptions and interannual variability. Climate Dynamics 2009, 33(6):849-868.
7. Caballero Y., Voirin-Morel S., Habets F., Noilhan J., LeMoigne P., Lehenaff A., Boone A. Hydrological sensitivity of the Adour-Garonne river basin to climate change. Water Resources Research 2007, 43:W07448. 10.1029/2005WR004192.
8. Christensen J.H., Kjellström E., Giorgi F., Lenderink G., Rummukainen M. Weight assignment in regional climate models. Climate Research 2010, 44(2-3):179-194.
9. Dettinger M.D. From climate change spaghetti to climate-change distributions for 21st century California. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science 2005, 3(1). (Article 4).
10. Fu, G., Lawry, J., Hall, J., ND. Beyond probability: newmethods for representing uncertainty in projections of future climate. Tyndall working paper.
11. Fulled́r R., Majlender P. On obtaining minimal variability OWA operator weights. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 2003, 136(2):203-215.
12. Gay C., Estrada F. Objective probabilities about future climate are a matter of opinion. Climate Change 2010, 99(1-2):27-46.
13. Gellens D., Roulin E. Streamflow response of Belgian catchments to IPCC climate change scenarios. Journal of Hydrology 1998, 210(1-4):242-258.
14. Giorgi F., Mearns L.O. Calculation of average, uncertainty range, and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the "Reliability Ensemble Averaging" (REA) method. Journal of Climate 2002, 15(10):1141-1158.
15. Goyal M.K., Ojha C.S.P. Downscaling of precipitation on a lake basin: evaluation of rule and decision tree induction algorithms. Hydrology Research 2012, 43(3):215-230.
16. Groves D.G., Yates D., Tebaldi C. Developing and applying uncertain global climate change projections for regional water management planning. Water Resources Research 2008, 44:W12413. 10.1029/2008WR006964.
17. Hassanzadeh E., Zarghami M., Hassanzadeh Y. Determining the main factors in declining the Urmia Lake level by using system dynamics modeling. Water Resources Management 2012, 26(1):129-145.
18. Hay L.E., McCabe G.J. Hydrologic effects of climate change in the Yukon River basin. Climatic Change 2010, 100(3-4):509-523.
19. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK. M.L. Parry (Ed.).
20. Kling H., Fuchs M., Paulin M. Runoff conditions in the upper Danube basin under an ensemble of climate change scenarios. Journal of Hydrology 2012, 424-425(6):264-277.
21. Knutti R., Furrer R., Tebaldi C., Cermak J., Meehl G. Challenges in combining projections from Multiple Climate Models. Journal of Climate 2010, 23(10):2739-2758.
22. Lopez A., Fung F., New M., Watts G., Weston A., Wilby R.L. From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts and adaptation: a case study of water resource management in the southwest of England. Water Resources Research 2009, 45:W08419. 10.1029/2008WR007499.
23. Murphy J.M., Sexton D.M.H., Barnett D.N., Jones G.S., Webb M.J., Collins M., Stainforth D.A. Quantification of modeling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature 2004, 430:768-772.
24. O'Hagan M. Aggregating template or rule antecedents in real-time expert systems with fuzzy set. Proceedings of 22nd Annual IEEE Asilomar Conference on Signals, Systems, Computers, California 1990, 681-689.
25. Raje D., Mujumdar P.P. Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change. Advances in Water Resources 2010, 33(9):1176-1186.
26. Semenov M.A., Stratonovitch P. Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts. Climate Research 2010, 41(1):1-14.
27. Setegn S.G., Rayner D., Melesse A.M., Dargahi B., Srinivasan R. Impact of climate change on the hydroclimatology of Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia. Water Resources Research 2011, 47:W04511. 10.1029/2010WR009248.
28. Tebaldi C., Smith R., Nychka D., Mearns L.O. Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: A Bayesian approach to the analysis of multi-model ensembles. Journal of Climate 2005, 18(10):1524-1540.
29. Wang Y.M., Parkan C. A minimax disparity approach for obtaining OWA operator weights. Information Sciences 2005, 175(1-2):20-29.
30. Wang Y.M., Luo Y., Liu X. Two new models for determining OWA operator weights. Computers and Industrial Engineering 2007, 52(2):203-209.
31. Wilby R.L., Harris I. A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: Low-flow-scenarios for the River Thames, UK. Water Resources Research 2006, 42:W02419. 10.1029/2005WR004065.
32. Xu Z. An overview of methods for determining OWA weights. International Journal of Intelligence Systems 2005, 20(8):843-865.
33. Yager R.R. Ordered weighted averaging aggregation operators in multi-criteria decision making. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics 1988, 18(1):183-190.
34. Yager R.R. Families of OWA operators. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 1993, 59(2):125-148.
35. Yager R.R., Filev D.P. Essentials of Fuzzy Modeling and Control 1994, 65-67. John Wiley and Sons, New York.
36. Zarghami M., Amir Rahmani M. Aggregation of climate change predictions; Case study from semi arid parts of Iran. IWA World Congress on Water, Climate and Energy, 13-18 May, Dublin, Ireland 2012.
37. Zarghami M., Szidarovszky F. Fuzzy quantifiers in sensitivity analysis of OWA operator. Computers and Industrial Engineering 2008, 54(4):1006-1018.
38. Zarghami M., Abdi A., Babaeian I., Hassanzadeh Y., Kanani R. Impacts of climate change on runoffs in East Azerbaijan, Iran. Global and Planetary Change 2011, 78(3-4):137-146.
39. Zhang H., Huang G.H., Wang D., Zhang X. Uncertainty assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of small prairie wetlands. Journal of Hydrology 2011, 396(1-2):94-103.