Impact of climate change on the hydroclimatology of Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Water Resources Research

Volumn 47, Issue 4, 2011, Pages

  Setegn, Shimelis G ^a   Rayner, David ^b   Melesse, Assefa M ^a   Dargahi, Bijan ^c   Srinivasan, Raghavan ^d  

^a FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF GOTHENBURG   (Sweden)

^c ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (Sweden)

^d TEXAS A AND M UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGES; CLIMATE PROJECTION; CURRENT GENERATION; DAILY TEMPERATURES; ETHIOPIA; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; HISTORICAL DATA; HYDROCLIMATOLOGY; HYDROLOGICAL CHANGES; LAKE TANA; RESOURCE AVAILABILITY; SOIL AND WATER ASSESSMENT TOOL; SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS SCENARIOS; SWAT MODEL; WATER BALANCE;

CLIMATE MODELS; LAKES; RAIN; STREAM FLOW; WATER RESOURCES;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; HYDROLOGICAL CHANGE; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; RESOURCE AVAILABILITY; STREAMFLOW; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; WATER RESOURCE;

ETHIOPIA; LAKE TANA; NILE BASIN;

EID: 79955075661     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2010WR009248     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Abbaspour, K. C., C. A. Johnson, and M. T. van Genuchten (2004), Estimating uncertain flow and transport parameters using a sequential uncertainty fitting procedure, Vadose Zone J., 3(4), 1340-1352.
2. Abbaspour, K. C., J. Yang, I. Maximov, R. Siber, K. Bogner, J. Mieleitner, J. Zobrist, and R. Srinivasan (2007), Modelling hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT, J. Hydrol., 333, 413-430, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.09.014. (Pubitemid 46053969)
3. Abbaspour, K. C., M. Faramarzi, S. S. Ghasemi, and H. Yang (2009), Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in Iran, Water Resour. Res., 45, W10434, doi:10.1029/2008WR007615.
4. Abdo, K. S., B. M. Fiseha, T. H. M. Rientjes, A. S. M. Gieske, and A. T. Haile (2009), Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology of Gilgel Abay catchment in Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia, Hydrol. Processes, 23, 3661-3669.
5. Arnell, N. W., and T. Osborn (2006), Interfacing climate and impacts models in integrated assessment modeling, Tech. Rep. 52, Tyndall Cent. for Clim. Change Res., Norwich, U. K. (Available at http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/ default/files/tr52.pdf.)
6. Arnold, J. G., R. Srinivasan, R. R. Muttiah, and J. R. Williams (1998), Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part I: Model development, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 34, 73-89, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998. tb05961.x. (Pubitemid 28190080)
7. Benestad, R. E., D. Chen, and I. Hanssen-Bauer (2008), Empirical-Statistical Downscaling, 300 pp., World Sci., Singapore.
8. Beven, K., and A. Binley (1992), The future of distributed models: Model calibration and uncertainty prediction, Hydrol. Processes, 6, 279-298, doi:10.1002/hyp.3360060305.
9. Beyene, T., D. P. Lettenmaier, and P. Kabat (2010), Hydrologic impacts of climate change on theNile River Basin: Implications of the 2007 IPCC scenarios, Clim. Change, 100(3-4), 433-461, doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9693-0.
10. Brown, A. E., L. Zhang, T. A. McMahon, A. W. Western, and R. A. Vertessy (2005), A review of paired catchment studies for determining changes in water yield resulting from alterations in vegetation, J. Hydrol., 310, 28-61, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.12.010. (Pubitemid 40837283)
11. Chang, H. (2003), Basin hydrologic response to changes in climate and land use: The Conestoga River Basin, Pennsylvania, Phys. Geogr., 24, 222-247, doi:10.2747/0272-3646.24.3.222. (Pubitemid 38185101)
12. Chorowicz, J., B. Collet, F. Bonavia, P. Mohr, J.-F. Parrot, and T. Korme (1998), The Tana Basin, Ethiopia: Intra-plateau uplift, rifting and subsidence, Tectonophysics, 295, 351-367, doi:10.1016/S0040-1951(98) 00128-0. (Pubitemid 29083905)
13. Conway, D. (1997),Awater balance model of the Upper BlueNile in Ethiopia, Hydrol. Sci. J., 42(2), 265-286, doi:10.1080/02626669709492024.
14. Conway, D. (2000), The climate and hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia, Geogr. J., 166, 49-62, doi:10.1111/j.1475-4959.2000.tb00006.x.
15. Fohrer, N., S. Haverkamp, K. Eckhardt, and H. G. Frede (2001), Hydrologic response to land use changes on the catchment scale, Phys. Chem. Earth B, 26, 577-582. (Pubitemid 32579704)
16. Fowler, H. J., S. Blenkinsopa, and C. Tebaldib (2007), Linking climate change modelling to impact studies: Recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modeling, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1547-1578, doi:10.1002/joc.1556. (Pubitemid 47604181)
17. Gamachu, D. (1977), Aspects of Climate and Water Budget in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa Univ. Press, Addis Ababa.
18. Gassman, P. W., M. R. Reyes, C. H. Green, and J. G. Arnold (2007), The Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Historical development, applications, and future research directions, Trans. ASABE, 50(4), 1211-1250. (Pubitemid 47425666)
19. Gleick, P. H., and E. L. Chalecki (1999), The impacts of climatic changes for water resources of the Colorado and Sacramento-San Joaquin river basins, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 35, 1429-1441, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999. tb04227.x. (Pubitemid 30049339)
20. Groisman, P. Y., R. W. Knight, and T. R. Karl (2001), Heavy precipitation and high streamflow in the contiguous United States: Trends in the twentieth century, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 82, 219-246, doi:10.1175/1520- 0477(2001)0822.3.CO;2. (Pubitemid 33622658)
21. Hargreaves, G. L., G. H. Hargreaves, and J. P. Riley (1985), Agricultural benefits for Senegal River Basin, J. Irrig. Drain. Eng., 111(2), 113-124, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(1985)111:2(113).
22. Harrold, T. I., and R. N. Jones (2003), Generation of rainfall scenarios using daily patterns of change from GCMs, IAHS Publ. AISH Publ., 280, 165-172.
23. Hay, L. E., and M. P. Clark (2003), Use of statistically and dynamically downscaled atmospheric model output for hydrologic simulations in three mountainous basins in the western United States, J. Hydrol., 282, 56-75, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00252-X. (Pubitemid 37365173)
24. Huang, M. B., and L. Zhang (2004), Hydrological responses to conservation practices in a catchment of the Loess Plateau, China, Hydrol. Processes, 18, 1885-1898, doi:10.1002/hyp.1454. (Pubitemid 38964686)
25. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (1999), Aviation and the Global Atmosphere. A Special Report of IPCC Working Groups I and III in Collaboration With the Scientific Assessment Panel to the Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer, edited by J. E. Penner et al., 373 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
26. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2000), Emissions Scenarios, edited by N. Nakicenovic and R. Swart, 570 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
27. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability-Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by M. L. Parry et al., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
28. Kim, U., and J. J. Kaluarachchi (2009), Climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 45, 1361-1378, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00369.x.
29. Kim, U., J. J. Kaluarachchi, and V. U. Smakhtin (2008), Generation of monthly precipitation under climate change for the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 44, 1231-1247, doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688. 2008.00220.x.
30. Kingston, D. G., and R. G. Taylor (2010), Sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge and groundwater in a headwater catchment of the Upper Nile Basin, Uganda, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1297-1308, doi:10.5194/hess-14-1297-2010.
31. Laurance, W. F. (1998),Acrisis in the making: Responses of Amazonian forests to land use and climate change, Trends Ecol. Evol., 13(10), 411-415, doi:10.1016/S0169-5347(98)01433-5. (Pubitemid 28430686)
32. Melesse, A. M., A. G. Loukas, G. Senay, and M. Yitayew (2009), Climate change, land-cover dynamics and ecohydrology of the Nile River Basin, Hydrol. Processes, 23, 3651-3652.
33. Mohr, P. A. (1962), The Geology of Ethiopia, 268 pp., Univ. Coll. Press, Addis Ababa.
34. Neff, R., H. Chang, C. G. Knight, R. G. Najjar, B. Yarnal, and H. A. Walker (2000), Impact of climate variation and change on Mid-Atlantic region hydrology and water resources, Clim. Res., 14, 207-218, doi:10.3354/cr014207. (Pubitemid 32956596)
35. Neitsch, S. L., J. G. Arnold, J. R. Kiniry, and J. R. Williams (2005), Soil and Water Assessment Tool, theoretical documentation, Blackland Res. Cent., Tex. A&M, Temple.
36. Novotny, E. V., and H. G. Stefan (2007), Streamflow in Minnesota: Indicator of climate change, J. Hydrol., 334, 319-333, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol. 2006. 10.011. (Pubitemid 46201676)
37. Quilbé, R., A. N. Rousseau, J.-S. Moquet, S. Savary, S. Ricard, and M. S. Garbouj (2008), Hydrological responses of a watershed to historical land use evolution and future land use scenarios under climate change conditions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 101-110, doi:10.5194/hess-12-101-2008. (Pubitemid 351190282)
38. Richey, J. E., C. Nobre, and C. Deser (1989), Amazon River discharge and climate variability: 1903-1985, Science, 246, 101-103, doi:10.1126/science. 246.4926.101. (Pubitemid 20400984)
39. Schulze, R. E. (2000), hydrological responses to land uses and climate change: A southern African perspective, Ambio, 29(1), 12-22. (Pubitemid 30149650)
40. Setegn, S. G., R. Srinivasan, A. M. Melesse, and B. Dargahi (2009a), SWAT model application and prediction uncertainty analysis in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia, Hydrol. Processes, 23, 3738-3750.
41. Setegn, S. G., R. Srinivasan, B. Dargahi, and A. M. Melesse (2009b), Spatial delineation of soil erosion vulnerability in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia, Hydrol. Processes, 24, 357-367.
42. Tarekegn, D., and A. Tadege (2006), Assessing the impact of climate change on the water resources of the Lake Tana sub-basin using the WATBAL model, Discuss. Pap. 30, Cent. for Environ. Econ. and Policy in Afr., Univ. of Pretoria, Pretoria.
43. Taye, M. T., V. Ntegeka, N. P. Ogiramoi, and P. Willems (2010), Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in two source regions of the Nile River Basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 7, 5441-5465, doi:10.5194/hessd-7-5441-2010.
44. Tu, J. (2009), Combined impact of climate and land use changes on streamflow and water quality in eastern Massachusetts, USA, J. Hydrol., 379, 268-283, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.10.009.
45. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (2004), National water development report for Ethiopia, Rep. UN-WATER/ WWAP/2006/7, World Water Assess. Program, Addis Ababa.
46. van Griensven, A., and T. Meixner (2006), Methods to quantify and identify the sources of uncertainty for river basin water quality models, Water Sci. Technol., 53(1), 51-59, doi:10.2166/wst.2006.007.
47. van Roosmalen, L., T. O. Sonnenborg, and K. H. Jensen (2009), Impact of climate and land use change on the hydrology of a large-scale agricultural catchment, Water Resour. Res., 45, W00A15, doi:10.1029/ 2007WR006760.
48. Wilby, R. L., T. M. L. Wigley, D. Conway, P. D. Jones, B. C. Hewitson, J. Main, and D. S. Wilks (1998), Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: A comparison of methods, Water Resour. Res., 34(11), 2995-3008, doi:10.1029/98WR02577. (Pubitemid 28494932)
49. Wilby, R. L., L. E. Hay, W. J. Gutowski, R. W. Arritt, E. S. Takle, Z. Pan, G. H. Leavesley, and M. P. Clark (2000), Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27(8), 1199-1202, doi:10.1029/1999GL006078. (Pubitemid 32035672)
50. Wood, R. B., and J. F. Talling (1988), Chemical and algal relationships in a salinity series of Ethiopian inland waters, Hydrobiologia, 158, 29-67, doi:10.1007/BF00026266.
51. Wood, A. W., E. P. Maurer, A. Kumar, and D. P. Lettenmair (2002), Longrange experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D20), 4429, doi:10.1029/2001JD000659.
52. Wood, A. W., L. R. Leung, V. Sridhar, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2004), Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs, Clim. Change, 62, 189-216, doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013685. 99609.9e. (Pubitemid 38300001)
53. Wudneh, T. (1998), Biology and management of fish stocks in Bahir Dar Gulf, Lake Tana, Ethiopia, Ph.D. dissertation, Wageningen Agric. Univ., Wageningen, Netherlands.
54. Zhang, L., W. R. Dawes, and G. R. Walker (2001), The response of mean annual evapotranspiration to vegetation changes at catchment scale, Water Resour. Res., 37(3), 701-708, doi:10.1029/2000WR900325. (Pubitemid 32526068)