Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

Energy Policy

Volumn 54, Issue , 2013, Pages 87-103

  Harvey, L D D ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO   (Canada)

Author keywords

Energy; Scenarios; Transportation

Indexed keywords

DRIVE TRAIN; ENERGY; ENERGY DEMANDS; ENERGY INTENSITY; ENERGY REQUIREMENTS; FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS; IN-VEHICLE; LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES; MARKET SEGMENT; PER CAPITA; PER CAPITA INCOME; PLUG-IN HYBRIDS; SCENARIOS; SOCIO-ECONOMICS; TRANSPORTATION MODE; TRANSPORTATION SCENARIO; TRANSPORTATION SECTOR;

CARBON DIOXIDE; ELECTRIC DRIVES; ENERGY MANAGEMENT; FOSSIL FUELS; FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION; HYDROGEN; POPULATION STATISTICS; TRANSPORTATION;

PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES;

CARBON DIOXIDE; CARBON EMISSION; ENERGY EFFICIENCY; ENERGY MARKET; ENERGY USE; FOSSIL FUEL; FREIGHT TRANSPORT; GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT; TRANSPORTATION MODE;

EID: 84873193341     PISSN: 03014215     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.10.053     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Aleklett K., Höök M., Jakobsson K., Lardelli M., Snowdenm S., Söderbergh B. The peak of the oil age-analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008. Energy Policy 2010, 38:1398-1414.
2. Anable J., Brand C., Tran M., Eyre N. Modelling transport energy demand: a socio-technical approach. Energy Policy 2012, 41:125-138.
3. Barkenbus J.N. Eco-driving: an overlooked climate change initiative. Energy Policy 2010, 38:762-769.
4. Bassett D.R., Pucher J., Buehler R., Thompson D.L., Scrouter S.E. Walking, cycling, and obesity rates in Europe, North America, and Australia. Journal of Physical Activity and Health 2008, 5:795-814.
5. Bentley R.W., Mannan S.A., Wheeler S.J. Assessing the date of the global oil peak: the need to use 2P reserves. Energy Policy 2007, 35:6364-6382.
6. Cheah L., Heywood J. Meeting U.S. passenger vehicle fuel economy standards in 2016 and beyond. Energy Policy 2011, 39:454-466.
7. Davis S.C., Diegel S.W., Boundy R.G. Transportation Energy Databook-Edition 30 2011, U.S. Department of Energy.
8. De Almeida P., Silva P.D. The peak of oil production-timings and market recognition. Energy Policy 2009, 37:1267-1276.
9. Eads G. 50×50, Prospects and Progress 2010, Global Fuel Economy Initiative.
10. Farrington R., Rugh J., 2000. Impact of Vehicle Air-Conditioning on Fuel Economy, Tailpipe Emissions, and Electric Vehicle Range, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado, NREL/CP-540-28960.
11. Friedrichs J. Global energy crunch: how different parts of the world would react to a peak oil scenario. Energy Policy 2010, 38:4562-4569.
12. Gattuso, J.P., Hansson, L. (Eds.), 2011. Ocean Acidification. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 326 pp.
13. Gavalos, G.R., Voecks, G.E., Moore, N.R., Ferrall, J.F., Prokopius, P.R., 1995. Fuel Cell Locomotive Development and Demonstration Program, Phase One: System Definition. Final Report. JPL D-12087, Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
14. GEA (Global Energy Assessment) Global Energy Assessment 2012, Cambridge University Press and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
15. German J. Lead time, customers, and technology: technology opportunities and limits on the rate of deployment. Reducing Climate Impacts in the Transportation Sector 2009, 73-100. Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 10.1007/978-1-4020-6979-6_5. D. Sperling, J.S. Cannon (Eds.).
16. GFEI (Global Fuel Economy Initiative), 2011a. International Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy and Related Characteristics. http://www.globalfueleconomy.org/Documents/Publications/wp5_iea_fuel_Economy_report.pdf.
17. GFEI (Global Fuel Economy Initiative), 2011b. Making Cars 50% more Fuel Efficient by 2050 Worldwide. http://www.globalfueleconomy.org/Documents/Publications/50BY50_report.pdf.
18. Girod B., van Vuuren D.P., Deetman S. Global travel within the 2°C target. Energy Policy 2012, 45:152-166.
19. Greene D.L., Baker H.H., Plotkin S.E. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Transportation 2011, Pew Center on Global Climate Change.
20. Hankey S., Marshall J.D. Impacts of urban form on future US passenger-vehicle greenhouse gas emissions. Energy Policy 2010, 38:4880-4887.
21. Harvey L.D.D. Dangerous Anthropogenic interference, dangerous climatic change, and harmful climatic change: non-trivial distinctions with significant policy implications. Climatic Change 2007, 82:1-25.
22. 2 concentrations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a function of the climate sensitivity PDF. Environmental Research Letters 2007, 2:014001. 10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014001.
23. Harvey L.D.D. Energy and The New Reality, vol. 1: Energy Efficiency and the Demand for Energy Services 2010, Earthscan, London, (614 pp.).
24. Harvey L.D.D. Energy and The New Reality, vol. 2: Carbon-Free Energy Supply 2010, Earthscan, London, (565 pp.).
25. Harvey L.D.D. Fast and slow feedbacks in future climates. The Future of the World's Climate 2012, Elsevier. A. Henderson-Sellers, K. McGuffie (Eds.).
26. Harvey, L.D.D., 2013. Global climate-oriented building energy use scenarios. Buildings and Energy, submitted for publication.
27. Haseli Y., Naterer G.F., Dincer I. Comparative assessment of greenhouse gas mitigation of hydrogen passenger trains. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 2008, 33:1788-1796.
28. Hileman J.I., Ortiz D.S., Bartis J.T., Wong H.M., Donohoo P.E., Weiss M.A., Waitz I.A. Near-Term Feasibility of Alternative Jet Fuels 2009, Rand Corporation and MIT.
29. Hirsch R.L. Mitigation of maximum world oil production: shortage scenarios. Energy Policy 2008, 36:881-889.
30. Höök M., Hirsch R., Aleklett K. Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production. Energy Policy 2009, 37:2262-2272.
31. Huo H., Wang M., Zhang X., He K., Gong H., Jiang K., Jin Y., Shi Y., Yu X. Projection of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions by motor vehicles in China: policy options and impacts. Energy Policy 2012, 43:37-48.
32. ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization), 2010. Climate change outlook. In: ICAO Environmental Report 2010, pp. 31-35.
33. 2: Moving Toward Sustainability 2009, International Energy Agency, Paris.
34. IEA (International Energy Agency) Energy Technology Perspectives 2012, Pathways to a Clean Energy System 2012, International Energy Agency, Paris.
35. IMO (International Maritime Organization), 2009. Second IMO GHG Study 2009.
36. Jakobsson K., Söderbergh B., Höök M., Aleklett K. How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?. Energy Policy 2009, 37:4809-4818.
37. Kennedy, D., Combes, B., Bellamy, O., 2010. Options for reducing emissions to 2050. In: ICAO Environmental Report 2010, pp. 47-50.
38. Köhler J., Wietschel M., Whitmarsh L., Keles D., Schade W. Infrastructure investment for a transition to hydrogen automobiles. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 2010, 77:1237-1248.
39. Lindstad H., Asbjørnslett B.E., Strømman A.H. The importance of economies of scale for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from shipping. Energy Policy 2012, 46:386-398.
40. Marshall J.D. Energy efficient urban form. Environmental Science & Technology 2008, 42:3133-3137.
41. Meng Q.Y., Bentley R.W. Global oil peaking: responding to the case for "abundant supplies of oil". Energy 2008, 33:1179-1184.
42. Millard-Ball A., Schipper L. Are we reaching peak travel? Trends in passenger transport in eight industrialized countries. Transport Reviews 2011, 31:357-378.
43. Moawad A., Sharer P., Rousseau A. Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Consumption Displacement Potential up to 2045 2011, Argonne National Laboratory, Energy Systems Division, ANL/ESD/11-4.
44. Nakicenovic, N., Swart, S. (Eds.), 2000. Emission Scenarios, Special Report of the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
45. Newman P., Kenworthy J. Sustainability and Cities: Overcoming Automobile Dependence 1999, Island Press, Washington, DC.
46. Newman P., Kenworthy J. Urban design to reduce automobile dependence. Opolis 2006, 2:35-52.
47. NRC (National Research Council) Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies-Focus on Hydrogen 2010, National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
48. NRC (National Research Council) Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles 2010, National Academies Press, Washington, Available at. http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12845.
49. NRC (National Research Council) Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies-Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles 2010, National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
50. NTSC (National Science and Technology Council) National Plan for Aeronautics Research and Development and Related Infrastructure Research 2007, Aeronautics Science and Technology Subcommittee, Committee on Technology, Washington, DC.
51. Ogburn M., Ramroth L., Lovins A.B. Transformational Trucks: Determining the Energy Efficiency Limits of a Class-8 Tractor-Trailer 2008, Rocky Mountain Institute, Snowmass, Colorado.
52. Owen B., Lee D.S., Lim L. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050. Environmental Sciences & Technology 2010, 44:2255-2260.
53. Plotkin S.E. Examining fuel economy and carbon standards for light vehicles. Energy Policy 2009, 37:3843-3853.
54. Popp Al., Dietrich J.P., Lotze-Campen H., Klein D., Bauer N., Krause M., Beringer T., Gerten D., Edenhofer O. The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system. Environmental Research Letters 2011, 6:034017. 10.1088/1748-0326/6/6/034017.
55. Pucher J., Buehler R., Seinen M. Bicycling renaissance in North America? An update and re-appraisal of cycling trends and policies. Transportation Research Part A 2011, 45:451-475.
56. Riahi K., Dentener F., Gielen D., Grubler A., Jewell J., Klimont Z., Krey V., McCollum D., Pachauri S., Rao S., van Ruijven D.P., Wilson C. Energy pathways for sustainable development. Global Energy Assessment 2012, 1205-1305. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg. T.B. Johansson, A. Patwardhan, N. Nakicenovic, L. Gomez-Echeverri (Eds.).
57. Rickwood P., Glazebrook G., Searle G. Urban structure and energy-a review. Urban Policy and Research 2008, 26:57-81.
58. Schlenker W., Lobell D.B. Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture. Environmental Research Letters 2010, 5:014010. 10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014010.
59. Schlenker W., Roberts M.J. Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to US crop yields under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2009, 106:15594-15598.
60. Schneider S.H., Semenov S., Patwardhan A., Burton I., Magadza C.H.D., Oppenheimer M., Pittock A.B., Rahman A., Smith J.B., Suarez A., Yamin F. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, 799-810. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, C.E. Hansen (Eds.).
61. Skjølsvik, K.O., Andersen, A.B., Corbett, J.J., Skjelvik, J.M. (Eds.), 2000. Study of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ships. Final Report to the International Maritime Organization. International Marine Organization, London. http://www.unfccc.int/files/methods_and_science/emissions_from_intl_transport/application/pdf/imoghgmain.pdf.
62. Sorrell S., Miller R., Bentley R., Speirs J. Oil futures: a comparison of global supply forecasts. Energy Policy 2010, 38:4990-5003.
63. Sorrell S., Speirs J., Bentley R., Brandt A., Miller R. Global oil depletion: a review of the evidence. Energy Policy 2010, 38:5290-5295.
64. Sorrell S., Speirs J., Bentley R., Miller R., Thompson E. Shaping the global oil peak: a review of the evidence on field sizes, reserve growth and depletion rates. Energy 2012, 37:709-724.
65. Stodolsky F. Railroad and Locomotive Technology Roadmap, ANL/ESD-6 2002, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois.
66. UNPD (United Nations Population Division) World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database 2008, UNPD.
67. UNPD (United Nations Population Division), 2010. World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision Population Database. UNPD.
68. US DOE (Department of Energy), 2011. Progress and Accomplishments in Hydrogen and Fuel Cells. Fact sheet Available from: (accessed 15.04.12) http://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/pdfs/accomplishments.pdf.
69. US DOT (Department of Transport) Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions, vol. 2: Technical Report to Congress 2010, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, DC.
70. WBCSD (World Business Council for Sustainable Development), 2004. Mobility 2030: Meeting the Challenges to Sustainability. World Business Council for Sustainable Development, Geneva, Switzerland. and http://htpp:/www.wbcsd.org/web/publications/mobility/smp-model-spreadsheet.xls.
71. Weiss M., Patel M.K., Junginger M., Perujo A., Bonnel P., van Grootveld G. On the electrification of road transport-learning rates and price forecasts for hybrid-electric and battery-electric vehicles. Energy Policy 2012, 48:374-393.