메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 35, Issue 4, 1997, Pages 367-396

Mean and variance change in climate scenarios: Methods, agricultural applications, and measures of uncertainty

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CARBON DIOXIDE INCREASE; CERES-WHEAT MODEL; CLIMATE CHANGE; CROP YIELD; PRECIPITATION; TEMPERATURE; VARIATION;

EID: 0030616924     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1023/A:1005358130291     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (272)

References (50)
  • 3
    • 0029477413 scopus 로고
    • Climate Change Scenarios with High Spatial and Temporal Resolution for Agricultural Applications
    • Barrow, E. and Semenov, M. A.: 1995, 'Climate Change Scenarios with High Spatial and Temporal Resolution for Agricultural Applications', Forestry 68, 349-360.
    • (1995) Forestry , vol.68 , pp. 349-360
    • Barrow, E.1    Semenov, M.A.2
  • 4
    • 0028160224 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting Zimbabwean Maize Yield Using Eastern Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature
    • Cane, M. A., Eshel, G., and Buckland, R. W.: 1994, 'Forecasting Zimbabwean Maize Yield Using Eastern Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature', Nature 370, 204-205.
    • (1994) Nature , vol.370 , pp. 204-205
    • Cane, M.A.1    Eshel, G.2    Buckland, R.W.3
  • 5
    • 8244246175 scopus 로고
    • Climatic Changes and Yield Variability
    • Hazell, P. B. R. (ed.), International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.
    • Carter, T. R. and Parry, M. L.: 1986, 'Climatic Changes and Yield Variability', in Hazell, P. B. R. (ed.), Summary Proceedings of a Workshop on Cereal Yield Variability, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C., pp. 47-68.
    • (1986) Summary Proceedings of a Workshop on Cereal Yield Variability , pp. 47-68
    • Carter, T.R.1    Parry, M.L.2
  • 6
    • 0025586055 scopus 로고
    • Bringing the Global Warming Issue Closer to Home: The Challenge of Regional Impact Studies
    • Cohen, S. J.: 1990, 'Bringing the Global Warming Issue Closer to Home: The Challenge of Regional Impact Studies', Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 71, 520-526.
    • (1990) Bull. Am. Met. Soc. , vol.71 , pp. 520-526
    • Cohen, S.J.1
  • 7
    • 0002353164 scopus 로고
    • The Impact of Climate Change on Continuous Corn Production in the Southern U. S. A.
    • Cooter, E. J.: 1990, 'The Impact of Climate Change on Continuous Corn Production in the Southern U. S. A.', Climatic Change 16, 53-82.
    • (1990) Climatic Change , vol.16 , pp. 53-82
    • Cooter, E.J.1
  • 9
    • 0026288344 scopus 로고
    • Approaches to the Simulation of Regional Climate Change: A Review
    • Giorgi, F., and Mearns, L. O.: 1991, 'Approaches to the Simulation of Regional Climate Change: A Review', Rev. of Geophys. 29, 191-216.
    • (1991) Rev. of Geophys. , vol.29 , pp. 191-216
    • Giorgi, F.1    Mearns, L.O.2
  • 10
    • 0001584852 scopus 로고
    • Regional Climate Change Scenarios over the United States Produced with a Nested Regional Climate Model: Spatial and Seasonal Characteristics
    • Giorgi, F., Shields Brodeur, C., and Bates, G. T.: 1994, 'Regional Climate Change Scenarios over the United States Produced with a Nested Regional Climate Model: Spatial and Seasonal Characteristics', J. Clim. 7, 375-399.
    • (1994) J. Clim. , vol.7 , pp. 375-399
    • Giorgi, F.1    Shields Brodeur, C.2    Bates, G.T.3
  • 15
    • 0030390707 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic Weather Simulation: Overview and Analysis of Two Commonly Used Models
    • Johnson, G. L., Hanson, C. L., and Ballard, E. B.: 1996, 'Stochastic Weather Simulation: Overview and Analysis of Two Commonly Used Models', J. Appl. Meteor. 35, 1878-1896.
    • (1996) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.35 , pp. 1878-1896
    • Johnson, G.L.1    Hanson, C.L.2    Ballard, E.B.3
  • 16
    • 0027761193 scopus 로고
    • A Farm-Level Analysis of Economic and Agronomic Impacts of Gradual Warming
    • Kaiser, H. M., Riha, S. J., Wilks, D. S., and Sampath, R.: 1993, 'A Farm-Level Analysis of Economic and Agronomic Impacts of Gradual Warming', Am. J. Agric. Econ. 75, 387-398.
    • (1993) Am. J. Agric. Econ. , vol.75 , pp. 387-398
    • Kaiser, H.M.1    Riha, S.J.2    Wilks, D.S.3    Sampath, R.4
  • 17
    • 0029668198 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Use of Stochastic Models to Generate Climate Change Scenarios
    • Katz, R. W.: 1996: 'The Use of Stochastic Models to Generate Climate Change Scenarios', Clim. Change 32, 237-255.
    • (1996) Clim. Change , vol.32 , pp. 237-255
    • Katz, R.W.1
  • 18
    • 2142722784 scopus 로고
    • Extreme Events in a Changing Climate: Variability is More Important than Averages
    • Katz, R. W. and Brown, B. G.: 1992, 'Extreme Events in a Changing Climate: Variability is More Important than Averages', Clim. Change 21, 289-302.
    • (1992) Clim. Change , vol.21 , pp. 289-302
    • Katz, R.W.1    Brown, B.G.2
  • 19
    • 0002249286 scopus 로고
    • Stochastic Modeling of Precipitation with Applications to Climate Modeling Downscaling
    • von Storch, H. and Navarra, A. (eds.), Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Chap. 11
    • Lettenmaier, D.: 1995, 'Stochastic Modeling of Precipitation with Applications to Climate Modeling Downscaling', in von Storch, H. and Navarra, A. (eds.), Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Chap. 11, pp. 197-212.
    • (1995) Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques , pp. 197-212
    • Lettenmaier, D.1
  • 20
    • 85102323012 scopus 로고
    • Research Issues in Determining the Effects of Changing Climatic Variability on Crop Yields
    • Rosenzweig, C. (ed.), American Society of Agronomy Special Publication No. 59, Madison, ASA, Chap. 6
    • Mearns, L. O.: 1995, 'Research Issues in Determining the Effects of Changing Climatic Variability on Crop Yields', in Rosenzweig, C. (ed.), Climate Change and Agriculture: Analysis of Potential International Impacts, American Society of Agronomy Special Publication No. 59, Madison, ASA, Chap. 6, pp. 123-146.
    • (1995) Climate Change and Agriculture: Analysis of Potential International Impacts , pp. 123-146
    • Mearns, L.O.1
  • 21
    • 0021639176 scopus 로고
    • Extreme High-Temperature Events: Changes in Their Probabilities with Changes in Mean Temperature
    • Mearns, L. O., Katz, R. W., and Schneider, S. H.: 1984, 'Extreme High-Temperature Events: Changes in Their Probabilities with Changes in Mean Temperature', J. Clim. Appl. Meteor. 23, 1601-1613.
    • (1984) J. Clim. Appl. Meteor. , vol.23 , pp. 1601-1613
    • Mearns, L.O.1    Katz, R.W.2    Schneider, S.H.3
  • 22
    • 8244256404 scopus 로고
    • Use of a Nested Regional Climate Model with Changed Daily Variability of Precipitation and Temperature to Test Related Sensitivity of Dynamic Crop Models
    • January 23-28, 1994, American Meteorological Society, Boston
    • Mearns, L. O. and Rosenzweig, C.: 1994, 'Use of a Nested Regional Climate Model with Changed Daily Variability of Precipitation and Temperature to Test Related Sensitivity of Dynamic Crop Models', in Preprints of the AMS Fifth Symposium on Global Change Studies, January 23-28, 1994, American Meteorological Society, Boston, pp. 142-155.
    • (1994) AMS Fifth Symposium on Global Change Studies , pp. 142-155
    • Mearns, L.O.1    Rosenzweig, C.2
  • 23
    • 77957343136 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Formation of Climate Change Scenarios Incorporating Changes in Daily Climate Variability and Application to Crop Models
    • Howe, W. and Henderson-Sellers, A. (eds.), Chap. 15, Harwood Academic Publishers (in press)
    • Mearns, L. O. and Rosenzweig, C.: 1997, 'Formation of Climate Change Scenarios Incorporating Changes in Daily Climate Variability and Application to Crop Models], in Howe, W. and Henderson-Sellers, A. (eds.), Assessing Climate Change: The Story of the Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment, Chap. 15, Harwood Academic Publishers (in press).
    • (1997) Assessing Climate Change: The Story of the Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment
    • Mearns, L.O.1    Rosenzweig, C.2
  • 25
    • 0029668197 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Effect of Changes in Daily and Interannual Climatic Variability on CERES-Wheat: A Sensitivity Study
    • Mearns, L. O., Rosenzweig, C., and Goldberg, R.: 1996, 'The Effect of Changes in Daily and Interannual Climatic Variability on CERES-Wheat: A Sensitivity Study', Clim. Change 32, 257-292.
    • (1996) Clim. Change , vol.32 , pp. 257-292
    • Mearns, L.O.1    Rosenzweig, C.2    Goldberg, R.3
  • 28
    • 0028600234 scopus 로고
    • The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis
    • Mendelsohn, R., Nordhaus, W. D., and Shaw, D.: 1994, 'The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis', Am. Econ. Rev. 84, 753-771.
    • (1994) Am. Econ. Rev. , vol.84 , pp. 753-771
    • Mendelsohn, R.1    Nordhaus, W.D.2    Shaw, D.3
  • 30
    • 0022230315 scopus 로고
    • The Effect of Climatic Variations on Agricultural Risk
    • Parry, M. L. and Carter, T. R.: 1985, 'The Effect of Climatic Variations on Agricultural Risk', Clim. Change 7, 95-110.
    • (1985) Clim. Change , vol.7 , pp. 95-110
    • Parry, M.L.1    Carter, T.R.2
  • 31
    • 0002173848 scopus 로고
    • On the Assessment of Surface Heat and Evaporation Using Large-Scale Parameters
    • Priestley, C. H. B. and Taylor, R. J.: 1972, 'On the Assessment of Surface Heat and Evaporation Using Large-Scale Parameters', Mon. Wea. Rev. 100, 81.
    • (1972) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.100 , pp. 81
    • Priestley, C.H.B.1    Taylor, R.J.2
  • 32
    • 0001165262 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Impacts and Adaptations
    • (convening author): Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, Chap. 13
    • Reilly, J. (convening author): 1996, 'Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Impacts and Adaptations', in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 1995. Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, Chap. 13, pp. 427-467.
    • (1996) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 1995. Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change , pp. 427-467
    • Reilly, J.1
  • 33
    • 0029668205 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of Temperature and Precipitation Variability on Crop Model Predictions
    • Riha, S. J., Wilks, D. S., and Simoens, P.: 1996, 'Impact of Temperature and Precipitation Variability on Crop Model Predictions', Clim. Change 32, 293-311.
    • (1996) Clim. Change , vol.32 , pp. 293-311
    • Riha, S.J.1    Wilks, D.S.2    Simoens, P.3
  • 34
    • 0000142771 scopus 로고
    • Description and Performance of CERES-Wheat: A User-Oriented Wheat Yield Model
    • Willis, W. O. (ed.), ARS-38, U.S. Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service
    • Ritchie, J. T. and Otter, S.: 1985, 'Description and Performance of CERES-Wheat: A User-Oriented Wheat Yield Model', in Willis, W. O. (ed.), ARS Wheat Yield Project, ARS-38, U.S. Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, pp. 159-175.
    • (1985) ARS Wheat Yield Project , pp. 159-175
    • Ritchie, J.T.1    Otter, S.2
  • 35
    • 0019353887 scopus 로고
    • Stochastic Simulation of Daily Precipitation, Temperature, and Solar Radiation
    • Richardson, C. W.: 1981, 'Stochastic Simulation of Daily Precipitation, Temperature, and Solar Radiation', Water Res. Research 17, 182-190.
    • (1981) Water Res. Research , vol.17 , pp. 182-190
    • Richardson, C.W.1
  • 38
    • 0025091488 scopus 로고
    • Crop Response to Climate Change in the Southern Great Plains: A Simulation Study
    • Rosenzweig, C.: 1990, 'Crop Response to Climate Change in the Southern Great Plains: A Simulation Study', The Professional Geographer 42, 20-39.
    • (1990) The Professional Geographer , vol.42 , pp. 20-39
    • Rosenzweig, C.1
  • 39
    • 0027936918 scopus 로고
    • Maize Suffers a Sea Change
    • Rosenzweig, C.: 1994, 'Maize Suffers a Sea Change', Nature 370, 175-176.
    • (1994) Nature , vol.370 , pp. 175-176
    • Rosenzweig, C.1
  • 40
    • 0028181936 scopus 로고
    • Potential Impact of Climate Change on World Food Supply
    • on
    • Rosenzweig, C. and Parry, M. L.: 1994, 'Potential Impact of Climate Change on World Food Supply', Nature 367, 133-137. on
    • (1994) Nature , vol.367 , pp. 133-137
    • Rosenzweig, C.1    Parry, M.L.2
  • 41
    • 0028862526 scopus 로고
    • Climatic Variability and Modelling of Crop Yields
    • Semenov, M. A. and Porter, J. R.: 1995, 'Climatic Variability and Modelling of Crop Yields', Agric. Forest Meteorol. 73, 265-283.
    • (1995) Agric. Forest Meteorol. , vol.73 , pp. 265-283
    • Semenov, M.A.1    Porter, J.R.2
  • 42
    • 0030619730 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Use of a Stochastic Weather Generator in the Development of Climate Change Scenarios
    • Semenov, M. A. and Barrow, E.: 1997, 'Use of a Stochastic Weather Generator in the Development of Climate Change Scenarios', Clim. Change 35, 397-414.
    • (1997) Clim. Change , vol.35 , pp. 397-414
    • Semenov, M.A.1    Barrow, E.2
  • 44
    • 0029535239 scopus 로고
    • A Global Climate Model (GENESIS) with a Land-Surface-Transfer Scheme (LSX). Part I: Present Climate Simulation
    • Thompson, S. L. and Pollard, D.: 1995a, 'A Global Climate Model (GENESIS) with a Land-Surface-Transfer Scheme (LSX). Part I: Present Climate Simulation', J. Clim. 8, 732-761.
    • (1995) J. Clim. , vol.8 , pp. 732-761
    • Thompson, S.L.1    Pollard, D.2
  • 46
    • 0024784830 scopus 로고
    • Anticipating the Frequency Distribution of Precipitation if Climate Change Alters Its Mean
    • Waggoner, P. E.: 1989, 'Anticipating the Frequency Distribution of Precipitation if Climate Change Alters Its Mean', J. Ag. For. Meteorol. 47, 321-337.
    • (1989) J. Ag. For. Meteorol. , vol.47 , pp. 321-337
    • Waggoner, P.E.1
  • 47
    • 0029668143 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simulation of Optimal Development for Spring Wheat at Two Locations in Southern Australia under Present and Changed Climate Conditions
    • Wang, Y. P. and Conner, D. J.: 1996, 'Simulation of Optimal Development for Spring Wheat at Two Locations in Southern Australia under Present and Changed Climate Conditions', Agric. For. Meteor. 79, 9-28.
    • (1996) Agric. For. Meteor. , vol.79 , pp. 9-28
    • Wang, Y.P.1    Conner, D.J.2
  • 48
    • 0024783205 scopus 로고
    • Conditioning Stochastic Daily Precipitation Models on Total Monthly Precipitation
    • Wilks, D. S.: 1989, 'Conditioning Stochastic Daily Precipitation Models on Total Monthly Precipitation', Water Res. Res. 25, 1429-1439.
    • (1989) Water Res. Res. , vol.25 , pp. 1429-1439
    • Wilks, D.S.1
  • 49
    • 0002956653 scopus 로고
    • Adapting Stochastic Weather Generation Algorithms for Climate Change Studies
    • Wilks, D. S.: 1992, 'Adapting Stochastic Weather Generation Algorithms for Climate Change Studies', Clim. Change 22, 67-84.
    • (1992) Clim. Change , vol.22 , pp. 67-84
    • Wilks, D.S.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.