Accommodating Species Climate-Forced Dispersal and Uncertainties in Spatial Conservation Planning

PLoS ONE

Volumn 8, Issue 1, 2013, Pages

  Lemes, Priscila ^a   Loyola, Rafael Dias ^a  

^a FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF GOIÁS   (Brazil)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AMPHIBIA; ANIMAL DISPERSAL; ARTICLE; BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOLOGICAL NICHE; FAUNA; NONHUMAN; SPECIES CONSERVATION; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION; SPECIES HABITAT; SPECIES RICHNESS;

AMPHIBIANS; ANIMALS; BIODIVERSITY; BRAZIL; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; FORECASTING; GEOGRAPHY; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SPECIES SPECIFICITY; UNCERTAINTY;

AMPHIBIA;

EID: 84872787602     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0054323     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Brook BM, Sodhi NS, Bradshaw CJA, (2008) Synergies among extinction drivers under global change. Trends Ecol Evol 23: 453-460.
2. Pounds JA, Bustamente MR, Coloma LA, Consuegra JA, Fogden MPL, et al. (2006) Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming. Nature 439: 161-67.
3. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, et al. (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421: 57-60.
4. Araújo MB, Cabeza M, Thuiller W, Hannah L, Williams PH, (2004) Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve selection methods. Glob Change Biol 10: 1618-1626.
5. Margules CR, Pressey RL, (2000) Systematic conservation planning. Nature 405: 243-53.
6. Pearson RG, Dawson TP, (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelopes useful? Glob Ecol Biogeogr 12: 361-371.
7. Franklin J (2009) Mapping species distributions: spatial inference and predictions. 1st edition. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
8. Peterson AT, Soberón J, Pearson RG, Anderson RP, Martinez-Meyer ER, et al. (2011) Ecological Niches and Geographical Distributions. Monographs in Population Biology 49, Princeton University Press.
9. Araújo MB, New M, (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends Ecol Evol 22: 42-47.
10. Lobo JM, Jiménez-Valverde A, Real R, (2008) AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 17: 145-151.
11. Elith J, Leathwick JR, (2009) Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction across Space and Time. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 40: 677-697.
12. Lawler JJ, Wiersma YF, Huettmann F (2011) Using species distribution models for conservation planning and ecological forecasting. In: Drew AC, Wiersma YF, Huettmann F. Predictive Species and Habitat Modeling in Landscape Ecology. Springer New York, New York, USA. pp 271-290.
13. Diniz-Filho JAF, Bini LM, Rangel TFLVB, Loyola RD, Hof C, et al. (2009) Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change. Ecography 32: 897-906.
14. Kamino LHY, Stehmann JR, Amaral S, De Marco P Jr, Rangel TF, et al. (2011) Challenges and perspectives for species distribution modelling in the neotropics. Biol Lett doi:10.1098/rsbl.2011.0942.
15. Carroll C, Dunk JR, Moilanen A, (2010) Optimizing resiliency of reserve networks to climate change: multispecies conservation planning in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Glob Change Biol 16: 891-904.
16. Wilson KA, (2010) Dealing with Data Uncertainty in Conservation Planning. Nat Conservacao 8: 145-150 doi: 10.4322/natcon.00802007.
17. Mittermeier RA, Robles-Gil P, Hoffman M, Pilgrim J, Brooks T, et al. (2004) Hotspots revisited: Earth's biologically richest and most endangered terrestrial ecoregions. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. 392p.
18. Ribeiro MC, Metzger JP, Martensen AC, Ponzoni FJ, Hirota MM, (2009) The Brazilian Atlantic forest: how much is left, and how is the remaining forest distributed? Implications for conservation. Biol Conserv 142: 1141-1153.
19. UNEP-WCMC (2010) Data Standards for the World Database on Protected Areas, UNEP-WCMC.
20. SOS Mata Atlântica, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (2008) Atlas dos remanescentes florestais da Mata Atlântica, período de 2000 a 2005. Available: http://www.sosmatatlantica.org.br.
21. Stuart SN, Chanson JS, Cox NA, Young BE, Rodrigues ASL, et al. (2004) Status and tends of Amphibian Declines and Extinction Worldwide. Science 306: 1783-1785.
22. Loyola RD, Becker CG, Kubota U, Haddad CFB, Lewinsohn TM, (2008) Hung out to dry, choice of priority ecoregions for conserving threatened Neotropical anurans depends on lifehistory traits. PLoS ONE 3 (5):: e2120.
23. Becker CG, Loyola RD, Haddad CFB, Zamudio KR, (2010) Integrating species lifehistory traits and patterns of deforestation in amphibian conservation planning. Divers Distrib 16 (1):: 10-19.
24. Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP, Dudík M, Ferrier S, et al. (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecograpphy 29: 129-151.
25. Lawler JJ, Shafer SL, White D, Kareiva P, Maurer EP, et al. (2009) Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere. Ecology 90 (3):: 588-597.
26. Rondinini C, Di Marco M, Chiozza F, Santulli G, Baisero D, et al. (2011) Global habitat suitability models of terrestrial mammals. Philos Trans R Soc B 366 (1578):: 2633-2641.
27. Lemes PL, Faleiro FAMV, Tessarolo G, Loyola RD, (2011) Refinando dados espaciais para a conservação da biodiversidade. Nat Conservação 9 (2):: 240-243.
28. Whittaker RJ, Araújo MB, Jepson P, Ladle RJ, Watson JEM, et al. (2005) Conservation Biogeography: assessment and prospect. Divers Distrib 11: 3-23.
29. Buckley AH, Jetz W, (2007) Species richness, hotspots, and the scale dependence of range maps in ecology and conservation. P Natl Acad Sci USA 104: 13384-13389.
30. Nori J, Urbina-Cardona JN, Loyola RD, Lescano JN, Leynaud GC, et al. (2011) Climate Change and American Bullfrog Invasion: What Could We Expect in South America? PLoS ONE 6: e25718.
31. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007 - Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
32. McCullagh P, Nelder JA (1989) Generalized linear models. 2nd ed. Chapman and Hall/CRC.
33. Yee TW, Mitchell ND, (1991) Generalised additive models in plant ecology. J Veg Sci 2: 587-602.
34. Muñoz J, Fellicísimo AM, (2004) Comparison of statistical methods commonly used in predictive modeling. J Veg Sci 15: 285-292.
35. Stockwell DRB, Noble IR, (1992) Induction of sets of rules from animal distribution data: a robust and informative method of data analysis. Math Comput Simulat 33: 385-390.
36. Breiman L, (2001) Random forest. Mach Learn 45: 5-32.
37. Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE, (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol Model 190: 231-259.
38. Allouche O, Tsoar A, Kadmon R, (2006) Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). J Appl Ecol 43: 1223-1232.
39. Thuiller W, (2004) Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change. Glob Change Biol 10: 2020-2027.
40. Sokal RR, Rohlf FJ (1995) Biometry, 3rd edn. W.H. Freeman, San Francisco, California.
41. Moilanen A, Kujala H (2008) Zonation: software for spatial conservation prioritization. User Manual v2.0. Metapopulation Research Group, University of Helsinki, Finland.
42. Moilanen A, Franco AMA, Early R, Fox R, Wintle B, et al. (2005) Prioritising multiple-use landscapes for conservation: methods for large multi-species planning problems. Proc R Soc B 272: 1885-1891.
43. Arponen A, Heikkinen RK, Thomas CD, Moilanen A, (2005) The value of biodiversity on reserve selection: representation species, species weighting, and benefit functions. Conserv Biol 21: 527-533.
44. Gittleman JL (2001) Carnivore conservation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
45. Loyola RD, Oliveira G, Diniz-Filho JAF, Lewinsohn TM, (2008) Conservation of Neotropical carnivores under different prioritization scenarios: mapping species traits to minimize conservation conflicts. Divers Distrib 14: 949-960.
46. Cabeza M, Moilanen A, (2006) Replacement cost: a practical measure of site value for cost-effective reserve planning. Biol Conserv 132: 336-342.
47. Araújo MB, Thuiller W, Pearson RG, (2006) Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe. J Biogeogr 33: 1712-1728.
48. Rayfield B, Moilanen A, Fortin MJ, (2009) Incorporating consumer-resource spatial interactions in reserve design. Ecol Model 220: 725-733.
49. Mittermeier R, Baião PC, Barrera L, Buppert T, McCullough J, et al. (2010) O Protagonismo do Brasil no Histórico Acordo Global de Proteção à Biodiversidade. Nat Conservacao 8: 197-200 doi:10.4322/natcon.00802017.
50. Ladle RJ, Whittaker RJ, eds. (2011) Conservation Biogeography.Wiley-Blackwell. 301p.
51. Araújo MB, Whittaker RJ, Ladle R, Erhard M, (2005) Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 14: 529-538.
52. Marmion M, Parviainen M, Luoto M, Heikkinen RK, Thuiller W, (2009) Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modeling. Divers Distrib 15: 59-69.
53. Soberón J, (2007) Grinnellian and Eltonian niches and geographic distributions of species. Ecol Lett 10: 1115-1123.
54. Salazar LF, Nobre CA, Oyama MD, (2007) Climate change consequences on the distribution in tropical South America. Geophys Res Lett 34: 1-6.
55. Willis KJ, Bhagwat SA, (2009) Biodiversity and Climate Change. Science 326: 806-807.
56. Jetz W, Wilcove DS, Dobson AP, (2007) Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds. PLoS Biol 5: e157.
57. Bush MA, Hooghiemstra H (2005) Tropical biotic responses to climate change. In: Lovejoy TE, Hannah H, editors. Climate change and biodiversity. New Haven and London, Yale University Press. pp 125-156.
58. Carnaval AC, Hickerson MJ, Haddad CFB, Rodrigues MT, Moritz C, (2009) Stability predicts genetic diversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot. Science 323: 785-789.
59. Hannah L, Midgley G, Andelman S, Araújo M, Hughes G, et al. (2007) Protected area needs in a changing climate. Front Ecol Environ 5: 131-138.
60. Heller NE, Zavaleta ES, (2009) Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: a review of 22 years of recommendations. Biol Conserv 142: 14-32.
61. Pressey RL, Cabeza M, Watts ME, Cowling RM, Wilson KA, (2007) Conservation planning in a changing world. Trends Ecol Evol 22: 583-592.
62. Gaston KJ, Charman K, Jackson SF, Armsworth PR, Bonn A, et al. (2006) The ecological effectiveness of protected areas: the United Kingdom. Biol Conserv 132: 76-87.
63. Game ET, Lipsett-Moore G, Saxon E, Peterson N, Sheppard S, (2011) Incorporating climate change adaptation into national conservation assessment. Glob Change Biol 17: 3150-3160.
64. Moilanen A, Runge MC, Elith J, Tyred A, Carmele Y, et al. (2006) Planning for robust reserve networks using uncertainty analysis. Ecological Model 199: 115-124.
65. McCarthy MA, Thompson CJ, Moore AL, Possingham H, (2011) Designing nature reserves in the face of uncertainty. Ecol Lett 14 (5):: 470-475.
66. Rondinini C, Stuart S, Boitani L, (2005) Habitat suitability models and the shortfall in conservation planning for African vertebrates. Conserv Biol 19: 1488-1497.
67. Hole DG, Huntley B, Arinaitwe J, Butchart SHM, Collingham Y, et al. (2011) Toward a Management Framework for Networks of Protected Area in the Face of Climate Change. Conserv Biol 25: 305-325.
68. Nicholson E, Possingham HP, (2007) Making conservation decisions under uncertainty for the persistence of multiple species. Ecol Appl 17: 251-165.
69. Meir E, Andelman S, Possinghma HP, (2004) Does conservation planning matter in a dynamic and uncertainty world? Ecol Lett 7: 615-622.
70. Araújo MB (2009) Climate change and spatial conservation planning. In: Moilanen A, Wilson KA, Possingham HP, editors. Spatial conservation prioritization, quantitative methods & computational tools. Oxford University Press, Oxford. pp 172-184.
71. Moilanen A, Kujala H, Leathwick J (2009) The Zonation Framework and Software For Conservation Prioritization. In: Moilanen A, Wilson KA, Possingham HP. Spatial Conservation Prioritization: Quantitative Methods and Computational Tools, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK. pp 196-210.