Future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH based on two scenarios

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Volumn 12, Issue 24, 2012, Pages 12211-12225

  Hodnebrog, o ^a,b   Berntsen, T K ^a   Dessens, O ^c,k   Gauss, M ^a,d   Grewe, V ^e   Isaksen, I S A ^a   Koffi, B ^f   Myhre, G ^b   Olivie D ^b,g   Prather, M J ^h   Stordal, F ^a   Szopa, S ^f   Tang, Q ^h,i   Van Velthoven, P ^j   Williams, J E ^j  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OSLO   (Norway)

^b CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH OSLO CICERO   (Norway)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

^d NORWEGIAN METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE   (Norway)

^e GERMAN AEROSPACE CENTER DLR   (Germany)

^f LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

^g CENTRE NATIONAL DE RECHERCHES MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES   (France)

^h UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

ⁱ Department of Biological and Environmental Engineering   (United States)

^j ROYAL NETHERLANDS METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE KNMI   (Netherlands)

^k UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY; CHEMICAL COMPOSITION; HYDROXYL RADICAL; MARINE ATMOSPHERE; OZONE; RADIATIVE FORCING; TRAFFIC EMISSION;

ARABIAN PENINSULA; ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTH);

EID: 84871753596     PISSN: 16807316     EISSN: 16807324     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/acp-12-12211-2012     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Balkanski, Y., Myhre, G., Gauss, M., Rädel, G., Highwood, E. J., and Shine, K. P.: Direct radiative effect of aerosols emitted by transport: from road, shipping and aviation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 4477-4489, doi:10.5194/acp-10-4477-2010, 2010.
2. Berntsen, T. K., Myhre, G., Stordal, F., and Isaksen, I. S. A.: Time evolution of tropospheric ozone and its radiative forcing, J. Geo-phys. Res.-Atmos., 105, 8915-8930, doi:10.1029/1999jd901139, 2000.
3. Berntsen, T. K., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Joshi, M. M., Shine, K. P., Stu-ber, N., Ponater, M., Sausen, R., Hauglustaine, D. A., and Li, L.: Response of climate to regional emissions of ozone precursors: sensitivities and warming potentials, Tellus B, 57, 283-304, 2005. (Pubitemid 41702266)
4. Borken, J., Steller, H., Meretei, T., and Vanhove, F.: Global and country inventory of road passenger and freight transportation-Fuel consumption and emissions of air pollutants in year 2000, Transp. Res. Record, 2011, 127-136, 10.3141/2011-14, 2007. (Pubitemid 351322151)
5. Burkhardt, U. and Karcher, B.: Global radiative forcing from contrail cirrus, Nat. Clim. Chang., 1, 54-58, doi:10.1038/nclimate1068, 2011.
6. Cariolle, D., Caro, D., Paoli, R., Hauglustaine, D. A., Cuenot, B., Cozic, A., and Paugam, R.: Parameterization of plume chemistry into large-scale atmospheric models: Application to aircraft NOx emissions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D19302, doi:10.1029/2009jd011873, 2009.
7. Dahlmann, K., Grewe, V., Ponater, M., and Matthes, S.: Quantifying the contributions of individual NO(x) sources to the trend in ozone radiative forcing, Atmospheric Environment, 45, 2860-2868, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.02. 071, 2011.
8. Eide, M. S., Endresen, O., Mjelde, A., Mangset, L. E., and Gravir, G.: Ship emissions of the future. Technical Report No 2007-1325, Det Norske Veritas, Høvik, Norway, 1-98, 2007.
9. Endresen, O., Sorgard, E., Behrens, H. L., Brett, P. O., and Isak-sen, I. S. A.: A historical reconstruction of ships' fuel consumption and emissions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D12301, doi:10.1029/2006jd007630, 2007. (Pubitemid 47241648)
10. Eyring, V., Stevenson, D. S., Lauer, A., Dentener, F. J., Butler, T., Collins, W. J., Ellingsen, K., Gauss, M., Hauglustaine, D. A., Isaksen, I. S. A., Lawrence, M. G., Richter, A., Rodriguez, J. M., Sanderson, M., Strahan, S. E., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., van Noije, T. P. C., and Wild, O.: Multi-model simulations of the impact of international shipping on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate in 2000 and 2030, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 757-780, doi:10.5194/acp-7- 757-2007, 2007. (Pubitemid 46279189)
11. Eyring, V., Isaksen, I. S. A., Berntsen, T., Collins, W. J., Corbett, J. J., Endresen, O., Grainger, R. G., Moldanova, J., Schlager, H., and Stevenson, D. S.: Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping, Atmospheric Environment, 44, 4735-4771, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.04.059, 2010.
12. Folberth, G. A., Hauglustaine, D. A., Lathière, J., and Brocheton, F.: Interactive chemistry in the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique general circulation model: model description and impact analysis of biogenic hydrocarbons on tropospheric chemistry, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 2273-2319, doi:10.5194/acp-6-2273-2006, 2006. (Pubitemid 43980733)
13. Franke, K., Eyring, V., Sander, R., Hendricks, J., Lauer, A., and Sausen, R.: Toward effective emissions of ships in global models, Meteorol. Z., 17, 117-129, doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0277, 2008.
14. Fuglestvedt, J., Berntsen, T., Myhre, G., Rypdal, K., and Skeie, R. B.: Climate forcing from the transport sectors, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 454-458, doi:10.1073/pnas.0702958104, 2008. (Pubitemid 351171729)
15. Gauss, M., Isaksen, I. S. A., Wong, S., and Wang, W. C.: Impact of H2O emissions from cryoplanes and kerosene aircraft on the atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4304, doi:10.1029/2002jd002623, 2003a.
16. Gauss, M., Myhre, G., Pitari, G., Prather, M. J., Isaksen, I. S. A., Berntsen, T. K., Brasseur, G. P., Dentener, F. J., Derwent, R. G., Hauglustaine, D. A., Horowitz, L. W., Jacob, D. J., Johnson, M., Law, K. S., Mickley, L. J., Muller, J. F., Plantevin, P. H., Pyle, J. A., Rogers, H. L., Stevenson, D. S., Sundet, J. K., van Weele, M., and Wild, O.: Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 4292, doi:10.1029/2002jd002624, 2003b.
17. Granier, C. and Brasseur, G. P.: The impact of road traffic on global tropospheric ozone, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1086, doi:10.1029/2002gl015972, 2003.
18. Grewe, V. and Stenke, A.: AirClim: an efficient tool for climate evaluation of aircraft technology, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 4621-4639, doi:10.5194/acp-8-4621-2008, 2008.
19. Grewe, V., Dameris, M., Hein, R., Kohler, I., and Sausen, R.: Impact of future subsonic aircraft NOx emissions on the atmospheric composition, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 47-50, 1999. (Pubitemid 29224013)
20. Grewe, V., Tsati, E., and Hoor, P.: On the attribution of contributions of atmospheric trace gases to emissions in atmospheric model applications, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 487-499, doi:10.5194/gmd-3-487-2010, 2010.
21. Grewe, V., Dahlmann, K., Matthes, S., and Steinbrecht, W.: Attributing ozone to NOx emissions: Implications for climate mitigation measures, Atmos. Environ., 59, 102-107, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.05.002, 2012.
22. Grooß, J. U., Bruhl, C., and Peter, T.: Impact of aircraft emissions on tropospheric and stratospheric ozone. Part I: Chemistry and 2-D model results, Atmos. Environ., 32, 3173-3184, 1998. (Pubitemid 28398801)
23. Hauglustaine, D. A., Hourdin, F., Jourdain, L., Filiberti, M. A., Walters, S., Lamarque, J. F., and Holland, E. A.: Interactive chemistry in the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique general circulation model: Description and background tropospheric chemistry evaluation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 109, D04314, doi:10.1029/2003jd003957, 2004.
24. Hodnebrog, Ø., Berntsen, T. K., Dessens, O., Gauss, M., Grewe, V., Isaksen, I. S. A., Koffi, B., Myhre, G., Olivié, D., Prather, M. J., Pyle, J. A., Stordal, F., Szopa, S., Tang, Q., van Velthoven, P., Williams, J. E., and Ødemark, K.: Future impact of non-land based traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH-an optimistic scenario and a possible mitigation strategy, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 11293-11317, doi:10.5194/acp-11-11293-2011, 2011.
25. Holmes, C. D., Tang, Q., and Prather, M. J.: Uncertainties in climate assessment for the case of aviation NO, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 10997-11002, doi:10.1073/pnas.1101458108, 2011.
26. Hoor, P., Borken-Kleefeld, J., Caro, D., Dessens, O., Endresen, O., Gauss, M., Grewe, V., Hauglustaine, D., Isaksen, I. S. A., Jöckel, P., Lelieveld, J., Myhre, G., Meijer, E., Olivie, D., Prather, M., Schnadt Poberaj, C., Shine, K. P., Staehelin, J., Tang, Q., van Aardenne, J., van Velthoven, P., and Sausen, R.: The impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH: results from QUANTIFY, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 3113-3136, doi:10.5194/acp-9-3113- 2009, 2009.
27. Hsu, J., Prather, M. J., and Wild, O.: Diagnosing the stratosphere-to-troposphere flux of ozone in a chemistry transport model, J. Geo-phys. Res.-Atmos., 110, D19305, doi:10.1029/2005jd006045, 2005. (Pubitemid 41685046)
28. Huszar, P., Cariolle, D., Paoli, R., Halenka, T., Belda, M., Schlager, H., Miksovsky, J., and Pisoft, P.: Modeling the regional impact of ship emissions on NOx and ozone levels over the Eastern Atlantic and Western Europe using ship plume parameterization, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 6645-6660, doi:10.5194/acp-10-6645-2010, 2010.
29. IPCC: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. A., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA., 881 pp., 2001.
30. Jöckel, P., Tost, H., Pozzer, A., Brühl, C., Buchholz, J., Ganzeveld, L., Hoor, P., Kerkweg, A., Lawrence, M. G., Sander, R., Steil, B., Stiller, G., Tanarhte, M., Taraborrelli, D., van Aardenne, J., and Lelieveld, J.: The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1: consistent simulation of ozone from the surface to the mesosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 5067-5104, doi:10.5194/acp-6-5067-2006, 2006. (Pubitemid 44717487)
31. Koffi, B., Szopa, S., Cozic, A., Hauglustaine, D., and van Velthoven, P.: Present and future impact of aircraft, road traffic and shipping emissions on global tropospheric ozone, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 11681-11705, doi:10.5194/acp-10-11681-2010, 2010.
32. Kraabøl, A. G., Berntsen, T. K., Sundet, J. K., and Stordal, F.: Impacts of NOx emissions from subsonic aircraft in a global three-dimensional chemistry transport model including plume processes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 107, 4655, doi:10.1029/2001jd001019, 2002. (Pubitemid 44793809)
33. Lee, D. S., Fahey, D. W., Forster, P. M., Newton, P. J., Wit, R. C. N., Lim, L. L., Owen, B., and Sausen, R.: Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century, Atmos. Environ., 43, 3520-3537, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.04. 024, 2009.
34. Lee, D. S., Pitari, G., Grewe, V., Gierens, K., Penner, J. E., Pet-zold, A., Prather, M. J., Schumann, U., Bais, A., Berntsen, T., Iachetti, D., Lim, L. L., and Sausen, R.: Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Aviation, Atmos. Environ., 44, 4678-4734, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.06.005, 2010.
35. Matthes, S., Grewe, V., Sausen, R., and Roelofs, G.-J.: Global impact of road traffic emissions on tropospheric ozone, At-mos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1707-1718, doi:10.5194/acp-7-1707-2007, 2007. (Pubitemid 46515896)
36. Meijer, E. W., vanVelthoven, P. F. J., Wauben, W. M. F., Beck, J. P., and Velders, G. J. M.: The effects of the conversion of nitrogen oxides in aircraft exhaust plumes in global models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 3013-3016, 1997. (Pubitemid 127686525)
37. Myhre, G., Karlsdottir, S., Isaksen, I. S. A., and Stordal, F.: Radiative forcing due to changes in tropospheric ozone in the period 1980 to 1996, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 105, 28935-28942, 2000. (Pubitemid 32281847)
38. Myhre, G., Nilsen, J. S., Gulstad, L., Shine, K. P., Rognerud, B., and Isaksen, I. S. A.: Radiative forcing due to stratospheric water vapour from CH4 oxidation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L01807, doi:10.1029/2006gl027472, 2007. (Pubitemid 47277757)
39. Myhre, G., Shine, K. P., Rädel, G., Gauss, M., Isaksen, I. S. A., Tang, Q., Prather, M. J., Williams, J. E., van Velthoven, P., Dessens, O., Koffi, B., Szopa, S., Hoor, P., Grewe, V., Borken-Kleefeld, J., Berntsen, T. K., and Fuglestvedt, J. S.: Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone and methane caused by the transport sector, Atmos. Environ., 45, 387-394, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.10.001, 2011.
40. Nakicenovic, N., Davidson, O., Davis, G., Grübler, A., Kram, T., La Rovere, E. L., Metz, B., Morita, T., Pepper, W., Pitcher, H., Sankovski, A., Shukla, P., Swart, R., Watson, R., and Dadi, Z.: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 599 pp., 2000.
41. Niemeier, U., Granier, C., Kornblueh, L., Walters, S., and Brasseur, G. P.: Global impact of road traffic on atmospheric chemical composition and on ozone climate forcing, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D09301, doi:10.1029/2005jd006407, 2006. (Pubitemid 43950205)
42. O'Connor, F. M., Carver, G. D., Savage, N. H., Pyle, J. A., Methven, J., Arnold, S. R., Dewey, K., and Kent, J.: Comparison and visualisation of high-resolution transport modelling with aircraft measurements, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 6, 164-170, doi:10.1002/asl.111, 2005. (Pubitemid 43033670)
43. Olivié, D. J. L., Cariolle, D., Teyssèdre, H., Salas, D., Voldoire, A., Clark, H., Saint-Martin, D., Michou, M., Karcher, F., Balkanski, Y., Gauss, M., Dessens, O., Koffi, B., and Sausen, R.: Modeling the climate impact of road transport, maritime shipping and aviation over the period 1860-2100 with an AOGCM, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 1449-1480, doi:10.5194/acp-12- 1449-2012, 2012.
44. Owen, B., Lee, D. S., and Lim, L.: Flying into the Future: Aviation Emissions Scenarios to 2050, Environ. Sci. Technol., 44, 2255-2260, doi:10.1021/es902530z, 2010.
45. Paoli, R., Cariolle, D., and Sausen, R.: Review of effective emissions modeling and computation, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 643-667, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-643- 2011, 2011.
46. Peters, G. P., Marland, G., Le Quere, C., Boden, T., Canadell, J. G., and Raupach, M. R.: Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, Nat. Clim. Chang., 2, 2-4, 2012.
47. Schnadt Poberaj, C., Staehelin, J., Bintania, R., van Velthoven, P., Dessens, O., Gauss, M., Isaksen, I. S. A., Grewe, V., Jöckel, P., Hoor, P., Koffi, B., Hauglustaine, D., and Olivié, D.: QUANTIFY model evaluation of global chemistry models: carbon monoxide, Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Transport, Atmosphere and Climate, Aachen, Germany, 22-25 June 2009, DLR Forschungsbericht 2010-10, ISSN 1434-8454,163-168, 2010
48. Skeie, R. B., Fuglestvedt, J., Berntsen, T., Lund, M. T., Myhre, G., and Rypdal, K.: Global temperature change from the transport sectors: Historical development and future scenarios, Atmos. Environ., 43, 6260-6270, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.05.025, 2009.
49. Søvde, O. A., Gauss, M., Smyshlyaev, S. P., and Isaksen, I. S. A.: Evaluation of the chemical transport model Oslo CTM2 with focus on arctic winter ozone depletion, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D09304, doi:10.1029/2007jd009240, 2008.
50. Teyssèdre, H., Michou, M., Clark, H. L., Josse, B., Karcher, F., Olivié, D., Peuch, V.-H., Saint-Martin, D., Cariolle, D., Attié, J.-L., Nédélec, P., Ricaud, P., Thouret, V., van der A, R. J., Volz-Thomas, A., and Chéroux, F.: A new tropospheric and stratospheric Chemistry and Transport Model MOCAGE-Climat for multi-year studies: evaluation of the present-day climatology and sensitivity to surface processes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 5815-5860, doi:10.5194/acp-7-5815-2007, 2007. (Pubitemid 350174517)
51. Uherek, E., Halenka, T., Borken-Kleefeld, J., Balkanski, Y., Berntsen, T., Borrego, C., Gauss, M., Hoor, P., Juda-Rezler, K., Lelieveld, J., Melas, D., Rypdal, K., and Schmid, S.: Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Land transport, Atmos. Environ., 44, 4772-4816, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.01.002, 2010.
52. Unger, N., Shindell, D. T., Koch, D. M., and Streets, D. G.: Air pollution radiative forcing from specific emissions sectors at 2030, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D02306, doi:10.1029/2007jd008683, 2008.
53. van Aardenne, J. A., Dentener, F. D., Olivier, J. G. J., Peters, J. A. H. W., and Ganzeveld, L. N.: The EDGAR 3.2 Fast Track 2000 dataset (32FT2000), http://themasites.pbl.nl/tridion/en/themasites/edgar/emission data/edgar 32ft2000/documentation/index-2.html, Joint Research Center, Institute for Environment and Sustainability (JRC-IES), Climate Change Unit, Ispra, Italy, 2005.
54. van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., Collatz, G. J., Kasibhatla, P. S., and Arellano Jr., A. F.: Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004, At-mos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3423-3441, doi:10.5194/acp-6-3423-2006, 2006. (Pubitemid 44272961)
55. Vinken, G. C. M., Boersma, K. F., Jacob, D. J., and Meijer, E. W.: Accounting for non-linear chemistry of ship plumes in the GEOS-Chem global chemistry transport model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 11707-11722, doi:10.5194/acp-11-11707-2011, 2011.
56. Wild, O. and Prather, M. J.: Excitation of the primary tropospheric chemical mode in a global three-dimensional model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 105, 24647-24660, doi:10.1029/2000jd900399, 2000.
57. Wild, O., Prather, M. J., and Akimoto, H.: Indirect long-term global radiative cooling from NOx emissions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1719-1722, doi:10.1029/2000gl012573, 2001. (Pubitemid 32575903)
58. Wild, O., Sundet, J. K., Prather, M. J., Isaksen, I. S. A., Akimoto, H., Browell, E. V., and Oltmans, S. J.: Chemical transport model ozone simulations for spring 2001 over the western Pacific: Comparisons with TRACE-P lidar, ozonesondes, and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer columns, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, 8826, doi:10.1029/2002jd003283, 2003.
59. Williams, J. E., Scheele, M. P., van Velthoven, P. F. J., Thouret, V., Saunois, M., Reeves, C. E., and Cammas, J.-P.: The influence of biomass burning and transport on tropospheric composition over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Equatorial Africa during the West African monsoon in 2006, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9797-9817, doi:10.5194/acp-10-9797-2010, 2010.