Is Alaska's boreal forest now crossing a major ecological threshold?

Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research

Volumn 44, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 319-331

  Mann, Daniel ^a   Rupp, T ^a   Olson, Mark ^a   Duffy, Paul ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS   (United States)

^b Neptune and Company   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ALBEDO; BOREAL FOREST; CARBON CYCLE; CARBON EMISSION; COMMUNITY COMPOSITION; DECIDUOUS TREE; DISTURBANCE; GLOBAL WARMING; RELATIVE ABUNDANCE; SOLAR RADIATION; STAND STRUCTURE; SUCCESSION; THRESHOLD; VEGETATION STRUCTURE;

ALASKA; UNITED STATES;

PICEA;

EID: 84870665266     PISSN: 15230430     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1657/1938-4246-44.3.319     Document Type: Article

References (79)

1. Alberta Natural Regions Committee, 2006:Natural Regions and Subregions of Alberta. Compiled by D. J. Downing and W. W. Pettapiece. Government of Alberta Publication Number T/852.
2. Amiro, B. D., Orchansky, A. L., Barr, A. G., Black, T. A., and Chambers, S. D., 2006: The effect of post-fire stand age on the boreal forest energy balance.Agricultural and Forestry Meteorology, 140: 41-50. (Pubitemid 44854263)
3. Balshi, M. S., McGuire, A. D., Zhuang, Q., Melillo, J., and Kicklighter, D. W., 2007: The role historical fire disturbance in the carbon dynamics of the pan-boreal region: a process-based analysis.Journal of Geophysical Research, 112: G02029, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JG000380.
4. Balshi, M. S., McGuire, A. D., Duffy, P., Flannigan, M., Kicklighter, D. W., and Melillo, J., 2009: Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century.Global Change Biology, 15: 1491-1510, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01877.x.
5. Barber, V. A., Juday, G. P., and Finney, B. P., 2000: Reduced growth of Alaska white spruce in the twentieth century from temperature-induced drought stress.Nature, 405: 668-673. (Pubitemid 30428649)
6. Barber, V. A., Juday, G. P., Finney, B. P., and Wilmking, M., 2004: Reconstruction of summer temperatures in Interior Alaska from treering proxies: evidence for changing synoptic climate regimes.Climatic Change, 63: 91-120. (Pubitemid 38459024)
7. Beck, P. S. A., Juday, G. P., Alix, C., Barber, V. A., Wonslow, S. E., Sousa, E. E., Heiser, P. A., Herriges, J. D., and Goetz, S. J., 2011: Changes in forest productivity across Alaska consistent with biome shift.Ecological Research Letters, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01598.x.
8. Beringer, J., Chapin, F. S., III, Thompson, C. C., and McGuire, A. D., 2005: Surface energy exchanges along a tundra-forest transition and feedbacks to climate.Agricultural and Forestry Meteorology, 131: 143-161. (Pubitemid 41207089)
9. Boby, L. A., Schuur, E. A. G., Mack, M. C., Verbyla, D., and Johnstone, J. F., 2010: Quantifying fire severity, carbon, and nitrogen emissions in Alaska's boreal forest.Ecological Applications, 20(6): 1633-1647.
10. Brubaker, L. B., Higuera, P. E., Rupp, T. S., Olson, M. A., and Anderson, P. M., 2009: Linking sediment-charcoal records and ecological modeling to understand causes of fire-regime change in boreal forests.Ecology, 90: 1788-1801.
11. Bureau of Land Management-Alaska Fire Service, 2008: Large Fire Database:
12. Calef, M. P., McGuire, A. D., Epstein, H. E., Rupp, T. S., and Shugart, H. H., 2005: Analysis of vegetation distribution in Interior Alaska and sensitivity to climate change using a logistic regression approach.Journal of Biogeography, 32: 863-878. (Pubitemid 40764321)
13. Carpenter, S. R., and Brock, W. A., 2006: Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition.Ecology Letters, 9: 311-318.
14. Chapin, F. S., III, Callaghan, T. V., Bergeron, Y., Fukuda, M., Johnstone, J. F., Juday, G., and Zimov, S. A., 2004: Global change and the boreal forest: thresholds, shifting states or gradual change?Ambio, 33: 361-365. (Pubitemid 39123425)
15. Chapin, F. S., III, Oswood, M. W., and Van Cleve, K., 2006:Alaska's Changing Boreal Forest. New York: Oxford University Press.
16. Chapin, F. S., III, McFarland, J., McGuire, A. D., Euskirchen, E. S., and Ruess, R. W., 2009: The changing global carbon cycle: linking plant-soil carbon dynamics to global consequences.Journal of Ecology, 97: 840-850.
17. Chapin, F. S., III, McGuire, A. D., Ruess, R. W., Hollingsworth, T. N., Mack, M. C., Johnstone, J. F., Kasischke, E. S., Euskirchen, E. S., Jones, J. B., Jorgenson, M. T., Kielland, K., Kofinas, G. P., Turetsky, M. R., Yarie, J., Lloyd, A. H., and Taylor, D. L., 2010: Resilience of Alaska's boreal forest to climatic change.Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 40: 1360-1370.
18. Contamin, R., and Ellison, A. M., 2009: Indicators of regime shifts in ecological systems: what do we need to know and when do we need to know it?Ecological Applications, 19: 799-816.
19. Cumming, S. G., 2001: Forest type and wildfire in the Alberta boreal mixedwood: what do fires burn?Ecological Applications, 11: 97-110.
20. Duffy, P. A., Walsh, J. E., Graham, J. M., Mann, D. H., and Rupp, T. S., 2005: Impacts of large-scale atmospheric-ocean variability on Alaskan fire season severity.Ecological Applications, 15: 1317-1330. (Pubitemid 41061046)
21. Duffy, P. A., Epting, J., Graham, J. M., Rupp, T. S., and McGuire, A. D., 2007: Analysis of burn severity patterns using remotely sensed data.International Journal of Wildland Fire, 16: 277-284. (Pubitemid 47143515)
22. Euskirchen, E. S., McGuire, A. D., and Chapin, F. S., III, 2007: Energy feedbacks of northern high-latitude ecosystems to the climate system due to reduced snow cover during 20th century warming.Global Change Biology, 13: 2425-2438, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.13652486.2007.01450.x. (Pubitemid 47593550)
23. Euskirchen, E. S., McGuire, A. D., Chapin, F. S., III, and Thompson, C. C., 2009: Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: implications for climate feedbacks.Ecological Applications, 19: 1022-1043.
24. Euskirchen, E. S., McGuire, A. D., Chapin, F. S., III, and Rupp, T. S., 2010. The changing effects of Alaska boreal forests on the climate system.Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 40: 1336-1346.
25. French, N. H. F., Goovaerts, P., and Kasischke, E. S., 2004: Uncertainty in estimating carbon emissions from boreal forest fires.Journal of Geophysical Research, 109: D14S08, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003635. (Pubitemid 39364485)
26. Government of Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Wildfire Information, 2009: http:// www.srd.alberta.ca/UpdatesFireAlerts/WildfireStatus/ HistoricalWildfireInformation/
27. Grigal, D. F., 2003: Mercury sequestration in forests and peatlands: a review.Journal of Environmental Quality, 32: 393-405. (Pubitemid 36350473)
28. Harden, J. W., Trumbore, S. E., Stocks, B. J., Hirch, A., Gower, S. T., O'Neill, K. P., and Kasischke, E. S., 2000: The role of fire in the boreal carbon budget.Global Change Biology, 6: 174-184. (Pubitemid 32978783)
29. Harden, J. W., Meier, R., Silapaswan, C., Swanson, D. K., and McGuire, A. D., 2001: Soil drainage and its potential for influencing wildfires in Alaska.In Galloway, J. P. (ed.),Studies by the U. S. Geological Survey in Alaska. U. S. Geological Survey Professional Paper, 1687: 139-144.
30. Harden, J. W., Manies, K. L., Turetsky, M. R., and Neff, J. C., 2006: Effects of wildfire and permafrost on soil organic matter and soil climate in Interior Alaska.Global Change Biology, 12: 2391-2403. (Pubitemid 44857711)
31. Higgins, P., Mastrandea, M. D., and Schneider, S. H., 2002: Dynamics of climate and ecosystem coupling and multiple equilibria.Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 357B: 647-655. (Pubitemid 34580667)
32. Higuera, P. E., Brubaker, L. B., Anderson, P. M., Hu, F. S., and Brown, T. A., 2009: Vegetation mediated the impacts of postglacial climate change on fire regimes in the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska.Ecological Monographs, 79: 201-219.
33. Hinzman, L. D., Bettez, N. D., Bolton, W. R., Chapin, F. S., and Dyurgerov, M. B., 2005: Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other arctic regions.Climate Change, 72: 251-298. (Pubitemid 41551225)
34. Hogg, E. H., and Hurdle, P. A., 1995: The aspen parkland in western Canada: a dry-climate analogue for the future boreal forest?Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 82: 391-400. (Pubitemid 26448038)
35. Homer, C., Huang, C., Yang, L., Wylie, B., and Coan, M., 2004: Development of a 2001 national land-cover database for the United States.Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 70: 829-840. (Pubitemid 39081754)
36. Johnstone, J. F., and Chapin, F. S., III, 2006: Fire interval effects on successional trajectory in boreal forests of northwest Canada.Ecosystems, 9: 268-277.
37. Johnstone, J. F., Hollingsworth, T. N., Chapin, F. S., III, and Mack, M. C., 2010: Changes in fire regime break the legacy lock on successional trajectories in Alaskan boreal forest.Global Change Biology, 16: 1281-1295.
38. Jorgenson, M. T., and Osterkamp, T. E., 2005: Response of boreal ecosystems to varying modes of permafrost degradation.Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 35: 2100-2111. (Pubitemid 43036310)
39. Jorgenson, M. T., Romanovsky, V., Harden, J., Shur, Y., O'Donnell, J., Schuur, E. A. G., Kanevskiy, M., and Marchenko, S., 2010: Resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change.Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 40: 1219-1236.
40. Kasischke, E. S., and Turetsky, M. R., 2006: Recent changes in the fire regime across the North American boreal region - Spatial and temporal patterns of burning across Canada and Alaska.Geophysical Research Letters, 33: L09703, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025677.
41. Kasischke, E. S., Williams, D., and Barry, D., 2002: Analysis of the patterns of large fires in the boreal forest region of Alaska.International Journal of Wildland Fire, 11: 131-144. (Pubitemid 34979325)
42. Kasischke, E. S., Verbyla, D. L., Rupp, T. S., McGuire, A. D., Murphy, K. A., Jandt, R., Allen, J. L., Hoy, E. E., Duffy, P. A., Calef, M., and Turetsky, M. R., 2010: Alaska's changing fire regime: implications for the vulnerability of its boreal forests.Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 40: 1313-1324.
43. Kaufman, D. S., Ager, T. A., Anderson, N. J., Anderson, P. M., Andrews, J. T., Bartlein, P. J., Brubaker, L. B., Coats, L. L., Cwynar, L. C., Duvall, M. L., Dyke, A. S., Edwards, M. E., Eisner, W. R., Gajewski, K., Geirsdóttir, A., Hu, F. S., Jennings, A. E., Kaplan, M. R., Kerwin, M. W., Lozhkin, A. V., MacDonald, G. M., Miller, G. H., Mock, C. J., Oswald, W. W., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Porinchu, D. F., Rühland, K., Smol, J. P., Steig, E. J., and Wolfe, B. B., 2004: Holocene thermal maximum in the western Arctic (0-180°W).Quaternary Science Reviews, 23: 529-560. (Pubitemid 38225249)
44. Kurkowski, T. A., Mann, D. H., Rupp, T. S., and Verbyla, D. L., 2008: Relative importance of different secondary successional pathways in an Alaskan boreal forest.Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 38: 1911-1923. (Pubitemid 352016888)
45. Leemans, R., and Cramer, W. P., 1991: The IIASA database for mean monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and cloudiness on a global terrestrial grid. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Report No. RR-91-18.
46. Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., and Lucht, W., 2008: Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 105: 1786-1793. (Pubitemid 351439417)
47. Liu, H., and Randerson, J. T., 2008. Interannual variability of surface energy exchange depends on stand age in a boreal forest fire chrono-sequence.Journal of Geophysical Research, 113: G01006, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JG000483.
48. Liu, H., Randerson, J. T., Linfords, J., and Chapin, F. S., III, 2005: Changes in the surface energy budget after fire in boreal ecosystems of Interior Alaska: an annual perspective.Journal of Geophysical Research, 110: D13101, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005158.
49. Lyons, E. A., Jin, Y., and Randerson, J. T., 2008: Changes in surface albedo after fire in boreal forest ecosystems of Interior Alaska assessed using MODIS satellite observations.Journal of Geophysical Research, 113: G02012, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007JG000606.
50. Malamud, B. D., Millington, J. D. A., and Perry, G. L. W., 2005: Characterizing wildfire regimes in the United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 102: 4694-4699. (Pubitemid 40471516)
51. Mann, D. H., and Plug, L. J., 1999: Vegetation and soil development at an upland taiga site, Alaska.Ecoscience, 6: 272-285. (Pubitemid 30073986)
52. McGuire, A. D., Stich, S., Clein, J. S., Daragaville, R., and Esser, G., 2001: Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: Analyses of CO2, climate and land-use effects with four process-based ecosystem models.Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 15: 183-206. (Pubitemid 32430733)
53. McGuire, A. D., Chapin, F. S., Walsh, J. E., and Wirth, C., 2006: Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: implications for the global climate system.Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 31: 61-91. (Pubitemid 44748627)
54. McGuire, A. D., Anderson, L. G., Christensen, T. R., Dallimore, S., Guo, L., Hayes, D. J., Hemiann, M., Lorenson, T. D., MacDonald, R. W., and Roulet, N. T., 2009: Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change.Ecological Monographs, 79: 523-555, http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/08-2025.1.
55. Mitchell, T. D., and Jones, M. D., 2005: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high resolution grids.International Journal of Climatology, 25: 693-712. (Pubitemid 40815726)
56. O'Neill, K. P., Kasischke, E. S., and Richter, D. D., 2003: Seasonal and decadal patterns of soil carbon uptake and emission along an age sequence of burned black spruce stands in Interior Alaska.Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D1): 8155, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000443.
57. Osterkamp, T. E., and Romanovsky, V. E., 1999: Evidence for warming and thawing of discontinuous permafrost in Alaska.Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 10(1): 17-37, http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1530(199901/03)10: 1<17::AID-PPP303>3.0.CO;2-4. (Pubitemid 29276398)
58. Pueyo, S., 2007: Self-organized criticality and the response of wildland fires to climate change.Climatic Change, 82: 131-161. (Pubitemid 46571737)
59. Randerson, J. T., Liu, H., Flanner, M. G., Chambers, S. D., and Jin, Y., 2006: The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming.Science, 314: 1130-1132. (Pubitemid 44789040)
60. Rupp, T. S., Chapin, F. S., III, and Starfield, A. M., 2000: Response of subarctic vegetation to transient climatic change on the Seward Peninsula in north-west Alaska.Global Change Biology, 6: 541-555. (Pubitemid 30411434)
61. Rupp, T. S., Olson, M., Adams, L. G., Dale, B. W., and Joly, K., 2006: Simulating the influences of various fire regimes on caribou winter habitat.Ecological Applications, 16: 1730-1743. (Pubitemid 44536922)
62. Rupp, T. S., Chen, X., and Olson, M., 2007: Sensitivity of simulated boreal fire dynamics to uncertainties in climate drivers.Earth Interactions, 11: 1-21.
63. Scheffer, M., 2009:Critical Transitions in Nature and Society. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 384.
64. Scheffer, M., and Carpenter, S., 2003: Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: linking theory to observations.Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 18: 648-656. (Pubitemid 37399486)
65. Schneider, R. R., Hamann, A., Farr, D., Wang, X., and Boutin, S., 2009: Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem distribution in Alberta.Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 39: 1001-1010.
66. Schuur, E. A. G., Bockheim, J., Canadell, J., Euskirchen, E. S., Field, C., Goryachkin, S., Hagemann, S., Kuhry, P., Lafleur, P., Lee, H., Mazhitova, G., Nelson, F., Rinke, A., Romanovsky, V., Shiklomanov, N., Tarnocai, C., Venevsky, S., Vogel, J. G., and Zimov, S. A., 2008: The vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: implications for the global carbon cycle.Bioscience, 58(8): 701-714, http://dx.doi.org/10.1641/B580807.
67. Schuur, E. A. G., Vogel, J. G., Crummer, K. G., Lee, H., Sickman, J. O., and Osterkamp, T. E., 2009: The effect of permafrost thaw on old carbon release and net carbon exchange from tundra.Nature, 459: 556-559.
68. Soja, A. J., Cofer, W. R., Shugart, H. H., Sukhinin, A. I., and Stackhouse, P. W., 2004: Estimating fire emissions and disparities in boreal Siberia (1998-2002).Journal of Geophysical Research, 109: D14S06, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004570. (Pubitemid 39364483)
69. Soja, A. J., Tchebakova, N. M., French, N. H. F., Flannigan, M. D., Shugart, H. H., Stocks, B. J., Sukhinin, A. I., Parfenova, E. I., Chapin, F. S., and Stackhouse, P. W., 2006: Climate-induced boreal forest change: predictions versus current observations.Global and Planetary Change, 56: 274-296. (Pubitemid 46621098)
70. Song, W., Wang, J., Satoh, K., and Fan, W., 2006: Three types of power-law distribution of forest fires in Japan.Ecological Modelling, 196: 527-532.
71. Turetsky, M. R., Harden, J. W., Friedli, H. R., Flannigan, M., and Payne, N., 2006: Wildfires threaten mercury stocks in northern soils.Geophysical Research Letters, 33: L16403, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025595.
72. Turquety, S., Logan, J. A., Jacob, D. J., Hudman, R. C., and Leung, F. K., 2007: Inventory of boreal fire emissions for North America in 2004: importance of peat burning and pyroconvective injection.Journal of Geophysical Research, 112: D12S03, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JD00728.
73. Viereck, L. A., 1983: The effects of fire in black spruce ecosystems of Alaska and northern Canada.In Wein, R. W., and MacLean, D. A. (eds.),The Role of Fire in Northern Circumpolar Ecosystems. Chichester, U. K.: Wiley, 201-220.
74. Viereck, L. A., Werdin-Pfisterer, N. R., Adams, P. A., and Yoshikawa, K., 2008: Effect of wildfire and fireline construction on the annual depth of thaw in a black spruce permafrost forest in Interior Alaska: a 36-year record of recovery.In Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Permafrost, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, 29 June-3 July 2008, 1845-1850.
75. Walsh, J. E., Chapman, W. L., Romanovsky, V., Christensen, J. H., and Stendel, M., 2008: Global climate model performance over Alaska and Greenland.Journal of Climate, 21: 6156-6174.
76. Weir, J. M. H., Johnson, E. A., and Miyanishi, K., 2000: Fire frequency and the spatial age mosaic of the mixed-wood boreal forest in western Canada.Ecological Applications, 10: 1162-1177. (Pubitemid 32145288)
77. Welp, L. R., Randerson, J. T., and Liu, H. P., 2006: Seasonal exchange of CO2 and δ18O-CO2 varies with postfire succession in boreal forest ecosystems.Journal of Geophysical Research, 111: G03007, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JG000126.
78. Wendler, G., and Shulski, M., 2009: A century of climate change for Fairbanks, Alaska.Arctic, 62: 295-300.
79. Wendler, G., Shulski, M., and Moore, B., 2010: Changes in the climate of the Alaskan North Slope and the ice concentration of the adjacent Beaufort Sea.Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 99: 67-74.