Impacts of model resolutions and initial conditions on predictions of he asian summer monsoon by the NCEP climate forecast system

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 27, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 629-646

  Wen, Min ^a   Yang, Song ^b   Vintzileos, Augustin ^b   Higgins, Wayne ^b   Zhang, Renhe ^a  

^a STATE KEY LABORATORY OF SEVERE WEATHER   (China)

^b NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ASIAN SUMMER MONSOONS; ATMOSPHERIC DATA; ATMOSPHERIC MODEL; CLIMATE FORECASTS; ENSEMBLE MEMBERS; GLOBAL OCEAN; HINDCASTS; INITIAL CONDITIONS; MODEL RESOLUTION; MONSOON RAINFALL; NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTIONS; SOUTH ASIA; SOUTHEAST ASIA; TIBETAN PLATEAU; TIME-PERIODS;

ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS; FORECASTING;

CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE PREDICTION; DATA ASSIMILATION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; IMAGE RESOLUTION; MONSOON; SUMMER; WEATHER FORECASTING;

SOUTHEAST ASIA;

EID: 84868330244     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: 15200434     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00128.1     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Achuthavarier, D., and V. Krishnamurthy, 2010: Relation between intraseasonal and interannual variability of the South Asian monsoon in the National Centers for Environmental Predictions forecast systems. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D08104, doi:10.1029/2009JD012865.
2. Achuthavarier, D., and V. Krishnamurthy,, 2011: Role of Indian and Pacific SST in Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability. J. Climate, 24, 2915-2930.
3. Chang, C.-P., P. Harr, and J. Ju, 2001: Possible roles of Atlantic circulations on the weakening Indian monsoon rainfall-ENSO relationship. J. Climate, 14, 2376-2380.
4. Drbohlav, H. K. L., and V. Krishnamurthy, 2010: Spatial structure, forecast errors, and predictability of the South Asian monsoon in CFS monthly retrospective forecasts. J. Climate, 23, 4750-4769.
5. Fan, K., H. Wang, and Y.-J. Choi, 2008: A physically-based statistical forecast mode for the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley summer rainfall. Chin. Sci. Bull., 53, 602-609.
6. Feng, L., T. Zhou, B. Wu, T. Li, and J. Luo, 2011: Projection of future precipitation change over China with a high-resolution global atmospheric model. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28, 464-476.
7. Gao, H., S. Yang, A. Kumar, Z.-Z. Hu, B. Huang, Y. Li, and B. Jha, 2011: Variations of the East Asian mei-yu and simulation and prediction by the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate,24, 94-108.
8. Janakiraman, S., M. Ved, R. N. Laveti, P. Yadav, and S. Gadgil,2011: Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Curr. Sci., 100, 354-362.
9. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
10. Kang, I.-S., and Coauthors, 2002: Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Climate Dyn., 19, 383-395.
11. Kitoh, A., 2004: Effects of mountain uplift on East Asian summer climate investigated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. J. Climate, 17, 783-802.
12. Kripalani, R. H., and A. Kulkarni, 1997: Rainfall variability over Southeast Asia-Connections with Indian monsoon and ENSO extremes: New perspectives. Int. J. Climatol., 17, 1155-1168.
13. Kripalani, R. H., J.-H. Oh, A. Kulkarni, S. S. Sabade, and H. S. Chaudhari,2007: South Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability:Coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 90, 133-159.
14. Kusunoki, S., J. Yoshimura, H. Yoshimura, A. Noda, K. Oouchi,and R. Mizuta, 2006: Change of baiu rain band in global warming projection by an atmospheric general circulation modelwith a 20-kmgrid size. J.Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 581-611.
15. Lau, K.-M., and S. Yang, 1996: Seasonal cycle, abrupt transition, and intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon in the GLA GCM. J. Climate, 9, 965-985.
16. Lau, K.-M.,and S. Yang,1997: Climatology and interannual variability of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 14, 141-162.
17. Lee, S.-S., J.-Y. Lee, K.-J. Ha, B. Wang, and J. K. E. Schemm, 2011:Deficiencies and possibilities for long-lead coupled climate prediction of the western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon. Climate Dyn., 36, 1173-1188.
18. Li, C., and M. Yanai, 1996: The onset and interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon in relation to land-sea thermal contrast. J. Climate, 9, 358-375.
19. Li, Y., and S. Yang, 2010: A dynamical index for the East Asian winter monsoon. J. Climate, 23, 4255-4262.
20. Liang, J., S. Yang, Z.-Z. Hu, B. Huang, A. Kumar, and Z. Zhang, 2009: Predictable patterns of Asian and Indo-Pacific summer precipitation in the NCEP CFS. Climate Dyn., 32, 989-1001.
21. Mahrt, L., and H.-L. Pan, 1984: A two-layer model of soil hydrology.Bound.-Layer Meteor., 29, 1-20.
22. Meehl, G. A., 1994: Influence of the land surface in the Asian summer monsoon-External conditions versus internal feedbacks. J. Climate, 7, 1033-1049.
23. Moorthi, S., H.-L. Pan, and P. Caplan, 2001: Changes to the 2001 NCEP operational MRF/AVN global analysis/forecast system.NWS Tech. Procedures Bull. 484, 14 pp. [Available online at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/tpb/484.htm.]
24. Nan, S., P. Zhao, S. Yang, and J. Chen, 2009: Springtime tropospheric temperature over the Tibetan Plateau and evolutions of the tropical Pacific SST. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D10104,doi:10.1029/2008JD011559.
25. Pacanowski, R. C., and S. M. Griffies, 1998: MOM3.0 manual.NOAA/GFDL, 682 pp.
26. Pope, V. D., and R. A. Stratton, 2002: The processes governing horizontal resolution sensitivity in a climate model. Climate Dyn., 19, 211-236.
27. Rai, S., and V. Krishnamurthy, 2011: Error growth in Climate Forecast System daily retrospective forecasts of South Asian monsoon. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D03108, doi:10.1029/2010JD014840.
28. Reynolds, C. A., P. J. Webster, and E. Kalnay, 1994: Random error growth inNMCglobal forecasts.Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 1281-1305.
29. Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2006: The NCEP Climate Forecast System.J. Climate, 19, 3483-3517.
30. Shukla, J., 1987: Interannual variability of monsoons.
31. Monsoons,J. S. Fein and P. L. Stephens, Eds., John Wiley and Sons, 399-463.
32. Sperber, K. R., S. Hameed, G. L. Potter, and J. S. Boyle, 1994:Simulation of the northern summer monsoon in the ECMWF model-Sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Mon. Wea. Rev.,122, 2461-2481.
33. Sun, B., Y. Zhu, and H. Wang, 2011: The recent interdecadal and interannual variation of water vapor transport over eastern China. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28, 1039-1048.
34. Thiebaux, J., E. Rogers, W. Wang, and B. Katz, 2003: A new highresolution blended real-time global sea surface temperature analysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 645-656.
35. Wang, H., and K. Fan, 2009: A new scheme for improving the seasonal prediction of summer precipitation anomalies. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 548-554.
36. Weaver, S. J., W. Wang, M. Chen, and A. Kumar, 2011: Representation of MJO variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 24, 4676-4694.
37. Webster, P. J., and S. Yang, 1992: Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 118, 877-926.
38. Webster, P. J., C. A. Clayson, and J. A. Curry, 1996: Clouds, radiation, and the diurnal cycle of sea surface temperature in the tropical western Pacific. J. Climate, 9, 1712-1730.
39. Webster, P. J., V. O. Magaña, T. N. Palmer, J. Shukla, R. A. Tomas,M. Yanai, and T. Yasunari, 1998: Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J. Geophys.Res., 103 (C7), 14 451-14 510.
40. Wu, R., and B. P. Kirtman, 2004: The tropospheric biennial oscillation of the monsoon-ENSO system in an interactive ensemble coupled GCM. J. Climate, 17, 1623-1640.
41. Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,78, 2539-2558.
42. Xie, P., A. Yatagai, M. Chen, T. Hayasaka, Y. Fukushima, C. Liu, and S. Yang, 2007: A gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation over East Asia. J. Hydrometeor., 8, 607-626.
43. Xu, Z., Y. Qian, and C. Fu, 2010: The role of land-sea distribution and orography in the Asian monsoon. Part II: Orography. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 27, 528-542.
44. Yang, S., and K.-M. Lau, 1998: Influences of SST and ground wetness anomalies on the Asian summer monsoon. J. Climate,11, 3230-3246.
45. Yang, S.,K.-M. Lau, S.-H. Yoo, J. L. Kinter, K.Miyakoda, and C.-H. Ho,2004: Upstream subtropical signals preceding the Asian summer monsoon circulation. J. Climate, 17, 4213-4229.
46. Yang, S., M. Wen, and R. W. Higgins, 2008a: Sub-seasonal features of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Acta Oceanol. Sin., 27, 88-103.
47. Yang, S., Z. Zhang, V. E. Kousky, R. W. Higgins, S.-H. Yoo, J. Liang, and Y. Fan, 2008b: Simulations and seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 21, 3755-3775.
48. Yang, S., Y. Jiang, D. Zheng, R. W. Higgins, Q. Zhang, V. E. Kousky, and M. Wen, 2009: Variations of U.S. regional precipitation and simulations by the NCEP CFS: Focus on the Southwest. J. Climate, 22, 3211-3231.
49. Yang, S., M. Wen, R. Yang, W. Higgins, and R. Zhang, 2011: Impacts of land process on the onset and evolution of Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Adv. Atmos.Sci., 28, 1301-1317.
50. Yoo, S.-H., C.-H. Ho, S. Yang, H.-J. Choi, and J.-G. Jhun, 2004:Influences of tropical western and extratropical Pacific SSTs on the East and Southeast Asian climate in the summers of 1993-94. J. Climate, 17, 2673-2687.
51. Yoo, S.-H., S. Yang, and C.-H. Ho, 2006: Variability of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and its impacts on Asian-Australian monsoon climate. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D03108, doi:10.1029/2005JD006001.
52. Zhang, R., and Z. Zuo, 2011: Impact of spring soil moisture on surface energy balance and summer monsoon circulation over East Asia and precipitation in East China. J. Climate, 24, 3309-3322.
53. Zhang, R.,A. Sumi, and M. Kimoto, 1996: Impact of El Niño on the East Asia monsoon: A diagnostic study of the '86/87 and '91/92 events. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 74, 49-62.
54. Zuo, Z., R. Zhang, and P. Zhao, 2011: The relation of vegetation over the Tibetan Plateau to rainfall in China during the boreal summer. Climate Dyn., 36, 1207-1219.