Spatial vent opening probability map of Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy)

Bulletin of Volcanology

Volumn 74, Issue 9, 2012, Pages 2083-2094

  Cappello, A ^a,b   Neri, M ^a   Acocella, V ^c   Gallo, G ^b   Vicari, A ^a   Del Negro, C ^a  

^a ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI GEOFISICA E VULCANOLOGIA   (Italy)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CATANIA   (Italy)

^c ROMA TRE UNIVERSITY   (Italy)

Author keywords

Back analysis; Dike; Flank eruption; Spatial clustering; Susceptibility map; Volcano structure

Indexed keywords

BACK ANALYSIS; CLUSTER ANALYSIS; CRATER; DIKE; FAULT; FORECASTING METHOD; GEOLOGICAL MAPPING; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; LAVA FLOW; MAGMA CHAMBER; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; SPATIAL ANALYSIS; VOLCANIC ERUPTION;

CATANIA [SICILY]; ETNA; ITALY; SICILY;

EID: 84867890398     PISSN: 02588900     EISSN: 14320819     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00445-012-0647-4     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Acocella V, Neri M (2009) Dike propagation in volcanic edifices: overview and possible developments. Tectonophysics 471: 67-77. doi: 10. 1016/j. tecto. 2008. 10. 002.
2. Acocella V, Neri M, Scarlato P (2006) Understanding shallow magma emplacement at volcanoes: orthogonal feeder dikes during the 2002-2003 Stromboli (Italy) eruption. Geophys Res Lett 33: L17310. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL026862.
3. Acocella V, Neri M, Sulpizio R (2009) Dike propagation within active central volcanic edifices: constraints from Somma-Vesuvius, Etna and analogue models. Bull Volcanol 71: 219-223. doi: 10. 1007/s00445-008-0258-2.
4. Bebbington M (2007) Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov models. Geophys J Int 171: 921-942.
5. Behncke B, Neri M (2003) Cycles and trends in the recent eruptive behaviour of Mount Etna (Italy). Can J Earth Sci 40: 1405-1411. doi: 10. 1139/E03-052.
6. Behncke B, Neri M, Nagay A (2005) Lava flow hazard at Mount Etna (Italy): new data from a GIS-based study. In: Manga M, Ventura G (ed) Kinematics and dynamics of lava flows, Spec Pap Geol Soc Am 396, pp 189-208.
7. Bonaccorso A, Bonforte A, Guglielmino F, Palano M, Puglisi G (2006) Composite ground deformation pattern forerunning the 2004-2005 Mount Etna eruption. J Geophys Res 111: B12207. doi: 10. 1029/2005JB004206.
8. Bonaccorso A, Bonforte A, Calvari S, Del Negro C, Di Grazia G, Ganci G, Neri M, Vicari A, Boschi E (2011) The initial phases of the 2008-2009 Mt. Etna eruption: a multi-disciplinary approach for hazard assessment. J Geophys Res 116: B03203. doi: 10. 1029/2010JB007906.
9. Bonforte A, Gambino S, Neri M (2009) Intrusion of eccentric dikes: the case of the 2001 eruption and its role in the dynamics of Mt. Etna volcano. Tectonophysics 471: 78-86. doi: 10. 1016/j. tecto. 2008. 09. 028.
10. Bonforte A, Guglielmino F, Coltelli M, Ferretti A, Puglisi G (2011) Structural assessment of Mount Etna volcano from Permanent Scatterers analysis. Geochem Geophys Geosyst 12: Q02002. doi: 10. 1029/2010GC003213.
11. Branca S, Coltelli M, Groppelli G (2004) In: Bonaccorso A, Calvari S, Coltelli M, Del Negro C, Falsaperla S (eds) Geological evolution of Etna volcano. Etna Volcano Laboratory, AGU 143, Washington DC, pp 49-63.
12. Burton MR, Neri M, Andronico D, Branca S, Caltabiano T, Calvari S, Corsaro RA, Del Carlo P, Lanzafame G, Lodato L, Miraglia L, Salerno G, Spampinato L (2005) Etna 2004-2005: an archetype for geodynamically-controlled effusive eruptions. Geophys Res Lett 32: L09303. doi: 10. 1029/2005GL022527.
13. Cappello A, Vicari A, Del Negro C (2011a) Assessment and modeling of lava flow hazard on Etna volcano. Boll Geofis Teor Appl 52(2): 299-308.
14. Cappello A, Vicari A, Del Negro C (2011b) Retrospective validation of a lava flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano. Ann Geophys 54(5). doi: 10. 4401/ag-5345.
15. Cardaci C, Coviello M, Lombardo G, Patané G, Scarpa R (1993) Seismic tomography of Etna volcano. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 56: 357-368.
16. Clark J, Evans FC (1954) Distance to nearest neighbour as a measure of spatial relationships in populations. Ecology 35: 445-453.
17. Connor CB, Hill BE (1995) Three nonhomogenous Poisson models for the probability of basaltic volcanism: application to the Yucca Mountain region, Nevada. J Geophys Res 100: 10, 107-10, 125.
18. Corsaro R, Neri M, Pompilio M (2002) Paleo-environmental and volcano-tectonic evolution of the south-eastern flank of Mt. Etna during the last 225 ka inferred from volcanic succession of the «Timpe», Acireale, Sicily. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 113: 289-306. doi: 10. 1016/S0377-0273(01)00262-1.
19. Crisci GM, Avolio MV, Behncke B, D'Ambrosio D, Di Gregorio S, Lupiano V, Neri M, Rongo R, Spataro W (2010) Predicting the impact of lava flows at Mount Etna, Italy. J Geophys Res 115: B04203. doi: 10. 1029/2009JB006431.
20. Diggle PJ (1985) A kernel method for smoothing point process data. Applied Statistics. J R Stat Soc Ser C 34: 138-147.
21. Falsaperla S, Cara F, Rovelli A, Neri M, Behncke B, Acocella V (2010) Effects of the 1989 fracture system in the dynamics of the upper SE flank of Etna revealed by volcanic tremor data: the missing link? J Geophys Res 115: B11306. doi: 10. 1029/2010JB007529.
22. Ganci G, Harris AJL, Del Negro C, Guehenneux Y, Cappello A, Labazuy P, Calvari S, Gouhier M (2012a) A year of lava fountaining at Etna: volumes from SEVIRI. Geophys Res Lett 39: L06305. doi: 10. 1029/2012GL051026.
23. Ganci G, Vicari A, Cappello A, Del Negro C (2012b) An emergent strategy for volcano hazard assessment: from thermal satellite monitoring to lava flow modeling. Rem Sens Env 119: 197-207. doi: 10. 1016/j. rse. 2011. 12. 021.
24. Holcomb RT (1987) Eruptive history and long-term behavior of Kilauea Volcano. US Geological Survey, Professional Papers 1350: 261-350.
25. Kiyosugi K, Connor CB, Zhao D, Connor LJ, Tanaka K (2010) Relationships between temporal-spatial distribution of monogenetic volcanoes, crustal structure, and mantle velocity anomalies: an example from the Abu Monogenetic Volcano Group, Southwest Japan. Bull Volcanol 72: 331-340.
26. Lutz TM, Gutmann JT (1995) An improved method for determining and characterizing alignments of point-like features and its implications for the Pinacate volcanic field, Sonoran, Mexico. J Geophys Res 100(B9): 17, 659-17, 670.
27. Marti J, Felpeto A (2010) Methodology for the computation of volcanic susceptibility: an example for mafic and felsic eruptions on Tenerife (Canary Islands). J Volcanol Geotherm Res 195: 69-77.
28. Martin AJ, Umeda K, Connor CB, Weller JN, Zhao D, Takahashi M (2004) Modeling long-term volcanic hazards through Bayesian inference: an example from the Tohuku volcanic arc Japan. J Geophys Res 109. doi: 10. 1029/2004JB003201.
29. Monaco C, De Guidi G, Catalano S, Ferlito C, Tortorici G, Tortorici L (2008) Carta Morfotettonica del Monte Etna. Litografia Artistica Cartografica, Firenze.
30. Neri M, Acocella V (2006) The 2004-2005 Etna eruption: implications for flank deformation and structural behaviour of the volcano. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 158: 195-206. doi: 10. 1016/j. jvolgeores. 2006. 04. 022.
31. Neri M, Guglielmino F, Rust D (2007) Flank instability on Mount Etna: radon, radar interferometry and geodetic data from the southern boundary of the unstable sector. J Geophys Res 112: B04410. doi: 10. 1029/2006JB004756.
32. Neri M, Lanzafame G, Acocella V (2008) Dike emplacement and related hazard in volcanoes with sector collapse: the 2007 Stromboli eruption. J Geol Soc London 165: 883-886. doi: 10. 1144/0016-76492008-002.
33. Neri M, Acocella V, Behncke B, Giammanco S, Mazzarini F, Rust D (2011a) Structural analysis of the eruptive fissures at Mount Etna (Italy). Ann Geophys 54(5): 464-479. doi: 10. 4401/ag-5332.
34. Neri M, Casu F, Acocella V, Solaro G, Pepe S, Berardino P, Sansosti E, Caltabiano T, Lundgren P, Lanari R (2009) Deformation and eruptions at Mt. Etna (Italy): a lesson from 15 years of observations. Geophys Res Lett 36: L02309. doi: 10. 1029/2008GL036151.
35. Neri M, Giammanco S, Ferrera E, Patanè G, Zanon V (2011b) Spatial distribution of soil radon as a tool to recognize active faulting on an active volcano: the example of Mt. Etna (Italy). J Environm Rad 102: 863-870. doi: 10. 1016/j. jenvrad. 2011. 05. 002.
36. Newhall CG (2000) Volcano warnings. In: Sigurdsson H (ed) Encyclopedia of volcanoes. Academic, San Diego, pp 1185-1197.
37. Ruch J, Acocella V, Storti F, Neri M, Pepe S, Solaro G, Sansosti E (2010) Detachment depth of an unstable volcano revealed by rollover deformation: an integrated approach at Mt. Etna. Geophys Res Lett 37: L16304. doi: 10. 1029/2010GL044131.
38. Salvi F, Scandone R, Palma C (2006) Statistical analysis of the historical activity of Mount Etna, aimed at the evaluation of volcanic hazard. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 154: 159-168.
39. Siniscalchi A, Tripaldi S, Neri M, Giammanco S, Piscitelli S, Balasco M, Behncke B, Magrì C, Naudet V, Rizzo E (2010) Insights into fluid circulation across the Pernicana Fault (Mt. Etna, Italy) and implications for flank instability. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 193: 137-142. doi: 10. 1016/j. jvolgeores. 2010. 03. 013.
40. Siniscalchi A, Tripaldi S, Neri M, Balasco M, Romano G, Ruch J, Schiavone D (2012) Flank instability structure of Mt Etna inferred by a magnetotelluric survey. J Geophys Res 117: B03216. doi: 10. 1029/2011JB008657.
41. Solaro G, Acocella V, Pepe S, Ruch J, Neri M, Sansosti E (2010) Anatomy of an unstable volcano through InSAR data: multiple processes affecting flank instability at Mt. Etna in 1994-2008. J Geophys Res 115: B10405. doi: 10. 1029/2009JB000820.
42. Sparks RSJ (2003) Forecasting volcanic eruptions. Earth Planet Sci Lett 210: 1-15. doi: 10. 1016/S0012-821X(03)00124-9.
43. Tibaldi A, Groppelli G (2002) Volcano-tectonic activity along structures of the unstable NE flank of Mt. Etna (Italy) and their possible origin. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 115: 277-302.
44. Vicari A, Ganci G, Behncke B, Cappello A, Neri M, Del Negro C (2011) Near-real-time forecasting of lava flow hazards during the 12-13 January 2011 Etna eruption. Geophys Res Lett 38: L13317. doi: 10. 1029/2011GL047545.
45. Wadge G, Young PAV, McKendrick IJ (1994) Mapping lava flow hazards using computer simulation. J Geophys Res 99(B1): 489-504.
46. Weller JN, Martin AJ, Connor CB, Connor LJ, Karakhanian A (2006) Modelling the spatial distribution of volcanoes: an example from Armenia. In: Mader HM, Coles SG, Connor CB, Connor LJ (eds) Statistics in volcanology. Spec Pub IAVCEI, Geol Soc London, pp 77-88.
47. Worton BJ (1995) Using Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate kernel-based home range estimators. J Wild Manag 59: 794-800.