Forecasting volcanic eruptions

Earth and Planetary Science Letters

Volumn 210, Issue 1-2, 2003, Pages 1-15

  Sparks, R S J ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Forecasting; Volcanic eruptions; Volcanic hazards; Volcanism

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING METHOD; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; PROBABILITY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; VOLCANIC ERUPTION; VOLCANOLOGY;

EID: 0037677682     PISSN: 0012821X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00124-9     Document Type: Article

References (69)

1. G. Woo, The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes, Imperial College Press, 2000, 292 pp.
2. Melnik, O., & Sparks, R. S. J. (1999). Nonlinear dynamics of lava extrusion. Nature, 402 37-41.
3. C.G. Newhall, Volcano warnings, in: H. Sigurdsson (Chief Ed.), Encyclopaedia of Volcanoes, Academic Press, New York, 2000, pp. 1185-1197.
4. C.G. Newhall, D. Dzurisin, Historical unrest at large calderas of the world, U.S. Geol. Surv. Bull. 1855 (1988).
5. Chouet, B. A. (1996). Long-period volcano seismicity: its source and use in eruption forecasting. Nature, 380 309-316.
6. Neuberg, J. (2000). Characteristics and causes of shallow seismicity in andesite volcanoes. Phil. Trans. R. Soc., 358 1533-1546.
7. Chouet, B. A., Page, R. A., Stephens, C. D., Lahr, J. C., & Power, J. A. (1994). Precursor swarms of long-period events at Redoubt volcano (1989-1990), Alaska: their origin and use as a forecasting tool. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 62 95-135.
8. Voight, B., & Cornelius, R. R. (1991). Prospects for eruption prediction in near-real-time. Nature, 350 695-698.
9. R.R. Cornelius, B. Voight, Real-time seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) and seismic spectral amplitude measurement (ssam) analyses with the materials failure forecast method (FFM), June 1991 explosive eruption at Mount Pinatubo, in: C.G. Newhall, R.S. Punongbayan (Eds.), Fire and Mud: Eruptions and Lahars of Mount Pinatubo, Phillipines, University of Washington Press, Seattle, WA, 1996, pp. 249-268.
10. Miller, A., Stewart, R., White, R., Luckett, R., Baptie, B., Aspinall, W. P., Latchman, J., Lynch, L., & Voight, B. (1998). Seismicity associated with dome growth and collapse at the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25 3401-3404.
11. G.E. Norton, R.B. Watts, B. Voight, G. Mattioli, R.A. Herd, S.R. Young, J.D. Devine, W.P. Aspinall, C. Bonadonna, B.J. Baptie, M. Edmonds, C.L. Harford, A.D. Jolly, S.C. Loughlin, R. Luckett, R.S.J. Sparks, Pyroclastic flow and explosive activity at the lava dome of Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, during a period of no magma extrusion (March 1998 to November 1999), in: T.H. Druitt, B.P. Kokelaar (Eds.), The Eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999. Geol. Soc. London Mem. 21 (2002) 467-482.
12. Yamasato, H. (1997). Quantitative analysis of pyroclastic flows using infrasonic and seismic data at Unzen Volcano, Japan. J. Phys. Earth, 45 397-416.
13. Jolly, A. D., Thompson, G., & Norton, G. E. (2002). Locating pyroclastic flows on Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies, using amplitude signals from high dynamic range instruments. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 118 299-317.
14. Dzurisin, D. (2000). Volcano geodesy: challenges and opportunities for the 21st century. Phil. Trans. R. Soc., 358 1547-1566.
15. Pritchard, M., & Simons, M. (2002). A satellite geodetic survey of large-scale deformation of volcanic centres in the central Andes. Nature, 416 167-170.
16. Cayol, V., Dietrich, J. H., Okamura, A. T., & Miklius, A. (2000). High magma storage rates before the 1983 eruption of Kilauea, Hawaii. Science, 288 2343-2346.
17. Lu, Z., Mann, D., Freymueller, J. T., & Meyer, D. J. (2000). Synthetic aperture radar interferometry of Okmok volcano, Alaska: radar observations. J. Geophys. Res., 105 10791-10806.
18. Orsi, G., Civetta, L., del Gaudio, C., de Vita, S., Di Vito, M. A., Isaia, R., Petrazzuoli, S. M., Ricciardi, G. P., & Ricco, C. (1999). Short-term ground deformations and seismicity in the resurgent Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy): an example of active block-resurgence in a densely populated area. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 91 415-451.
19. Langbein, J. O., Hill, D. P., Parker, T. N., & Wilkinson, S. K. (1993). An episode of reinflation of the Long Valley Caldera, eastern California: 1989-1991. J. Geophys. Res., 98 15851-15870.
20. Mogi, K. (1958). Relations between the eruptions of various volcanoes and the deformation of the ground surfaces around them. Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst. Tokyo, 36 99-134.
21. Cayol, V., & Cornet, F. (1998). Effects of topography on the interpretation of the deformation field of prominent volcanoes: applications to Etna. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25 1979-1982.
22. Lipman, P. W., Moore, J. G., & Swanson, D. A. (1981). 1981 bulging of the north flank before the May 18 eruption: geodetic data. US Geol. Surv. Prof. Pap., 1250 143-156.
23. Voight, B. (2000). Structural stability of andesite volcanoes and lava domes. Phil. Trans. R. Soc., 358 1663-1703.
24. S.R. Young, B. Voight, J. Barclay, R.A. Herd, J.C. Komorowski, A.D. Miller, R.S.J. Sparks, R.C. Stewart, Hazards implications of small-scale edifice instability and sector collapse: a case history from Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, in: T.H. Druitt, B.P. Kokelaar (Eds.), The Eruption of the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat 1995 to 1999, Geol. Soc. London Mem. 21 (2002) 349-362.
25. Linde, A. T., Agustsson, K., Sacks, I. S., & Stefansson, R. (1993). Mechanism of the 1991 eruption of Hekla from continuous borehole strain monitoring. Nature, 365 737-740.
26. K. Agustsson, R. Steffansson, A.T. Linde, P. Einarsson, I.S. Sacks, G.B. Gudmundsson, B. Thorjarndottir, Successful prediction and warning of the 2000 eruption of Hekla based on seismicity and strain changes, EOS Trans. AGU U81 (2000) F1337; see http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/englishweb/heklanews.html#strain
27. K. Kamo, I. Ishihara, A preliminary experiment on automated judgement of the stages of eruptive activity using tiltmeter records at Sakurajima, Japan, in: J.H. Latter (Ed.), Volcanic Hazards: Assessment Methods and Monitoring, IAVCEI Proceedings in Volcanology 1, Springer Verlag, Heidelberg, 1989, pp. 585-598.
28. 2 fluxes: a new tool for volcano surveillance. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 119 241-254.
29. Richter, D., Erdelyi, M., Curl, R. F., Tittel, F. K., Oppenheimer, C., Duffell, H. J., & Burton, M. (2002). Field measurement of volcanic gases using tunable diode laser based mid-infrared and Fourier transform infrared spectrometers. Optics Lasers Eng., 37 171-186.
30. 2 flux and long period seismicity at Galeras volcano. Nature, 368 135-137.
31. Watson, I. M., Oppenheimer, C., Voight, B., Francis, P. W., Clarke, A., Stix, J., Miller, A., Pyle, D. M., Burton, M. R., Young, S. R., Norton, G., Loughlin, S., & Darroux, B. (2000). MVO Staff, The relationship between degassing and deformation at Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 98 117-126.
32. A.S. Dagg, B.S. Tubianosa, C.G. Newhall, N.M. Tungol, D. Javier, M.T. Dolan, P.J. Delos Reyes, R.A. Arboleda, M.M.A. Martinez, M.T.M. Regalado, Monitoring sulphur dioxide emission at Mount Pinatubo, in: C.G. Newhall, R.S. Punongbayan (Eds.), Fire and Mud: Eruptions and Lahars of Mount Pinatubo, Phillipines, University of Washington Press, Seattle, WA, 1996, pp. 409-414.
33. T.H. Gerlach, K.A. McKee, T. Elias, A.J. Sutton, M.P. Doukers, Carbon dioxide emission rate of Kilauea volcano: implications for properties and dynamics of primary magma entering the summit reservoir, J. Geophys. Res. (2002) in press.
34. D.P. Hill, D. Dzurisin, W.I. Ellsworth, E.T. Endo, D.L. Galloway, T.M. Gerlach, M.J.S. Johnston, J. Langbein, K.A. McGee, C.D. Miller, D. Oppenheimer, M.L. Sorey, Response plans for volcano hazards in the Long Valley caldera and Mono crater region, California, US Geol. Surv. Bull. 2185 (2002).
35. Tanguy, J. C. (1994). The 1902-1905 eruptions of Montange Pelée, Martinique: anatomy and retrospective. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 60 87-107.
36. Newhall, C. G., Albano, S. E., Matsumoto, N., & Sandoval, T. (2001). Roles of groundwater in volcanic unrest. J. Geol. Soc. Philippines, 56 69-84.
37. Shibata, T., & Akita, F. (2001). Precursor changes in well-water level prior to the March 2000 eruption of Mount Usu, Japan. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28 1799-1802.
38. T. Ui, M. Nakagawa, C. Inaba, M. Yoshimoto, Geological Party, Joint Research Group for the Usu 2000 Eruption, Sequence of the 2000 eruption, Usu Volcano, Bull. Volcanol. Soc. Japan 47 (2002) in press (in Japanese with English abstract).
39. R.S. Punongbayan, C.G. Newhall, M.L.P. Bautista, D. Garcia, D.H. Harlow, R.P. Hoblitt, J.P. Sabit, R.U. Solidum, Eruption hazard assessments and warnings, in: C.G. Newhall, R.S. Punongbayan (Eds.), Fire and Mud: Eruptions and Lahars of Mount Pinatubo, Phillipines, University of Washington Press, Seattle, WA, 1996, pp. 67-85.
40. Voight, B., Sparks, R. S. J. Miller, A. D., Stewart, R. C., Hoblitt, R. P., Clarke, A., Ewart, J., Aspinall, W. P., Baptie, B., Druitt, T. H., Herd, R. A., Jackson, P., Lockhart, A. B., Loughlin, S. C., Lynch, L., McMahon, J., Norton, G. E., Robertson, R., Watson, I. M., & Young, S. R. (1999). Magma flow instability and cyclic activity at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, B.W.I. Science, 283 1138-1142.
41. D.B. Dingwell, The physical description of silicic magma relevant to explosive volcanism, in: J.S. Gilbert, R.S.J. Sparks (Eds.), The Physics of Explosive Volcanic Eruptions, Spec. Publ. Geol. Soc. London 145 (1998) 9-26.
42. Lejeune, A. M, & Richet, P. (1995). Rheology of crystal-bearing silicate melts: an experimental study at high viscosities. J. Geophys. Res., 100 4215-4229.
43. Llewellin, E. W., Mader, H. M., & Wilson, S. D. R. (2002). The rheology of a bubbly liquid. Proc. R. Soc. London A, 458 987-1016.
44. Cashman, K. V. (1992). Groundmass crystallization of Mount St Helens dacite, 1980-1986 - a tool for interpreting shallow magmatic processes. Contrib. Mineral. Petrol., 109 431-449.
45. Sparks, R. S. J. Murphy, M. D., Lejeune, A. M., Watts, R. B., Barclay, J., & Young, S. R. (2000). Control on the emplacement of the andesite lava dome of the Soufriere Hills Volcano by degassing-induced crystallization. Terra Nova, 12 14-20.
46. O. Navon, V. Lyakhovsky, Vesiculation processes in silicic magmas. In: J.S. Gilbert, R.S.J. Sparks (Eds.), The Physics of Explosive Volcanic Eruptions, Spec. Publ. Geol. Soc. London 145 (1998) 27-50.
47. R.S.J. Sparks, Dynamics of degassing, in: C. Oppenheimer, J. Barclay, D. Pyle (Eds.), Origins, Emissions and Impacts of Volcanic Gases, Geol. Soc. London Spec. Publ. (2003) in press.
48. Massol, H., & Jaupart, C. (1999). The generation of gas overpressure in volcanic eruptions. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 166 57-70.
49. Kilburn, C. R. J. & Voight, B. (1998). Slow rock fracture as eruption precursor at Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25 3665-3668.
50. Boudon, G., Villemant, B., Komorowski, J. C., Ildefonse, P., & Semet, M. (1998). The hydrothermal system at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25 3685-3689.
51. Pinel, V., & Jaupart, C. (2000). The effect of edifice load on magma ascent beneath a volcano. Phil. Trans. R. Soc., 358 1515-1532.
52. Barmin, A., Melnik, O., & Sparks, R. S. J. (2002). Periodic behaviour in lava dome eruptions. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 199 173-184.
53. D.A. Swanson, R.T. Holcomb, Regularities in growth of the Mount St Helens lava dome 1980-1968, in: J.H. Fink (Ed.), Lava Flows and Domes; Emplacement Mechanisms and Hazards Implications, Springer, Berlin, 1990, pp. 3-24.
54. Hellfrich, J. A., & Whitehead, K. R. (1991). Instability of flow with temperature-dependent viscosity: a model of magma dynamics. J. Geophys. Res., 96 4145-4155.
55. Denlinger, R. P., & Hoblitt, R. P. (1999). Cyclic eruptive behavior of silicic volcanoes. Geology, 27 459-462.
56. Wylie, J. J., Voight, B., & Whitehead, J. A. (1999). Instability of magma flow from volatile-dependent viscosity. Science, 285 1883-1885.
57. Newhall, C. G., Power, J. A., & Punongbayan, R. S. (2002). To make grow. Science, 295 1241-1242.
58. Matthews, S. J., Gardeweg, M. C., & Sparks, R. S. J. (1997). The 1984 to 1996 cyclic activity of Lascar Volcano, Northern Chile; cycles of dome growth, dome subsidence, degassing, and explosive eruption. Bull. Volcanol., 59 72-82.
59. Taylor, B. E., Eichelberger, J. C., & Westrich, H. R. (1983). Hydrogen isotope evidence for rhyolitic magma degassing during shallow intrusion and eruption. Nature, 306 541-545.
60. Jaupart, C., & Allegre, C. (1991). Gas content, eruption rate and instabilities of eruption in silicic volcanoes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 102 413-429.
61. Woods, A. W., & Koyaguchi, T. (1994). Transitions between explosive and effusive volcanic eruptions. Nature, 370 641-644.
62. Connor, C. B., Hill, B. E., Winfrey, B., Franklin, N. W., & LaFemina, P. C. (2001). Estimation of volcanic hazards from tephra fallout. Nat. Hazards Rev., 2 33-42.
63. C. Bonadonna, G. Macedonio, R.S.J. Sparks, Numerical modelling of tephra fallout associated with dome collapses and Vulcanian explosions: application to hazard assessment on Montserrat, in: T.H. Druitt, B.P. Kokelaar (Eds.), The Eruption of the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat 1995 to 1999. Geol. Soc. London Mem. 21 (2002) 517-538.
64. Felpeto, A., Arana, V., Ortiz, R., Astiz, M., & Garcia, A. (2001). Assessment and modelling of lava flow hazard on Lanzarote. Nat. Hazards, 23 247-257.
65. Iverson, R. M., Schilling, S. P., & Vallance, J. W. (1998). Objective delineation of lahar-inundation hazard zones. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 110 972-984.
66. Ongaro, T. E., Neri, A., Todesco, M., & Macedonio, G. (2002). Pyroclastic flow hazard assessment at Vesuvius (Italy) by using numerical modeling. II. Analysis of flow variables. Bull. Volcanol., 64 178-191.
67. Itoh, H., Takahama, J., Takahashi, M., & Miyamoto, K. (2000). Hazard estimation of the possible pyroclastic flow disasters using numerical simulation related to the 1994 activity at Merapi Volcano. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 100 503-516.
68. Aspinall, W. P., & Woo, G. (1994). An impartial decision-making procedure using expert judgement to assess volcanic hazards. Convegni Lincei, 112 211-220.
69. Newhall, C. G., & Hoblitt, R. P. (2002). Constructing event trees for volcanic crises. Bull. Volcanol., 64 2-20.