Modeling climate change effects on winter ski tourism in Andorra

Climate Research

Volumn 54, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 197-207

  Pons Pons, Marc ^a,b,c   Johnson, Peter A ^c   Rosas Casals, Martí ^a,d   Sureda, Bàrbara ^a   Jover, Èric ^b  

^a UNIVERSITAT POLITÈCNICA DE CATALUNYA   (Spain)

^b AD600 Sant Julià de Lòria   (Andorra)

^c MCGILL UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^d INSTITUCIÓ CATALANA DE RECERCA I ESTUDIS AVANÇATS ICREA   (Spain)

Author keywords

Adaptation; Agent based modeling; Climate change impacts; Snowmaking; Winter tourism

Indexed keywords

ADAPTATION; ADAPTATION STRATEGIES; AGENT-BASED MODEL; AGENT-BASED MODELING; CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT; DRIVING FORCES; FUTURE CLIMATE; GLACIER RETREAT; INCOME SOURCES; LOCAL DEVELOPMENT; MOUNTAIN ECONOMIES; MOUNTAIN ECOSYSTEMS; MOUNTAIN REGIONS; PLANNING SUPPORT; POTENTIAL IMPACTS; SNOW COVERS; TOURISM INDUSTRY; VULNERABLE AREA; WINTER TOURISM;

BIODIVERSITY; COMPUTATIONAL METHODS; LANDFORMS; RECREATIONAL FACILITIES; SNOW MAKING;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ADAPTATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; GLACIER FLOW; GLACIER RETREAT; MOUNTAIN REGION; SNOW COVER; TOURISM; WINTER;

ANDORRA;

EID: 84867849823     PISSN: 0936577X     EISSN: 16161572     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/cr01117     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Abegg B (1996) Klimaänderung und Tourismus. Klimafol-genforschung am Beispiel des Wintertourismus in den Schweizer Alpen. vdf Hochschuleverlag, Zurich
2. Abegg B, Agrawala S, Crick F, De Montfalcon A (2007) Climate change impacts and adaptation in winter tourism. In: Agrawala S (ed) Climate change in the European Alps: adapting winter tourism and natural hazards management. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris, p. 25-58
3. Andorra Turisme (2010) National Survey. Andorra Government
4. Anwar S, Jeanneret C, Parrott L, Marceau D (2007) Conceptualization and implementation of a multi-agent model to simulate whalewatching tours in the St. Lawrence Estuary in Quebec, Canada. Environ Model Softw 22:1775-1787
5. Axtell RL, Epstein JM, Dean JS, Gumerman GJ and others (2002) Population growth and collapse in a multi-agent model of the Kayenta Anasazi in Long House Valley. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 99:7275-7279
6. Bark R, Colby B, Dominguez F (2010) Snow days? Snow-making adaptation and the future of low latitude, high elevation skiing in Arizona, USA. Clim Change 102:467-491
7. Barnaud C, Bousquet F, Trebuil G (2008) Multi-agent simulations to explore rules for rural credit in a highland farming community of Northern Thailand. Ecol Econ 66:615-627
8. Behringer J, Bürki R, Fuhrer J (2000) Participatory integrated assessment of adaptation to climate change in alpine tourism and mountain agriculture. Integrated Assessment 1(3):331-338
9. Beniston M (2003) Climatic change in mountain regions: a review of possible impacts. Clim Change 59:5-31
10. Berger T, Schreinemachers P (2006) Creating agents and landscapes for multiagent systems from random samples. Ecol Soc 11:19
11. Bicknell S, McManus P (2006) The canary in the coalmine: Australian ski resorts and their response to climate change. Geogr Res 44:386-400
12. Bithell M, Brasington J (2009) Coupling agent-based models of subsistence farming with individual-based forest models and dynamic models of water distribution. Environ Model Softw 24:173-190
13. Bousquet F, Le Page C (2004) Multi-agent simulations and ecosystem management: a review. Ecol Modell 176:313-332
14. Breiling M, Charamza P (1999) The impact of global warming on winter tourism and skiing: a regionalized model for Austrian snow conditions. Reg Environ Change 1:4-14
15. CADS (2010) 2n Informe sobre el canvi climàtic a Catalunya. Consell Assessor per al Desenvolupament Sostenible. Generalitat de Catalunya, Barcelona
16. Chaix C (2010) Climate change and tourism in the Alps: an analysis based on the pilot sites of the Alpine Space project ClimAlpTour. Université de Savoie. Institut de la montagne
17. Christensen OB, Christensen JH, Machenhauer B, Botzet M (1998) Very high resolution regional climate simulations over Scandinavia present climate. J Clim 11:3204-3229
18. Crooks AT (2010) Constructing and implementing an agent-based model of residential segregation through vector GIS. Int J Geogr Inf Sci 24:661-675
19. Dawson J, Scott D (2007) Climate change vulnerability in the Vermont ski tourism sector. Ann Leisure Res 10:550-571
20. Dawson J, Scott D (2010) Systems analysis of climate change vulnerability for the US northeast ski sector. Tourism Hospitality Plann Dev 7:219-235
21. Dawson J, Scott D, McBoyle G (2009) Climate change analogue analysis of ski tourism in the northeastern USA. Clim Res 39:1-9
22. Dawson J, Havitz M, Scott D (2011) Behavioral adaptation of alpine skiers to climate change: examining activity involvement and place loyalty. J Travel Tourism Mark 28:388-404
23. Deadman PJ, Robinson DT, Moran E, Brondizio E (2004) Colonist household decision making and land use change in the Amazon rainforest: an agent based simulation approach. Environ Plann B Plann Des 31:693-709
24. Elsasser H, Bürki R (2002) Climate change as a threat to tourism in the Alps. Clim Res 20:253-257
25. Feuillette S, Bousquet F, Le Goulven P (2003) Sinuse: a multi-agent model to negotiate water demand management on a free access water table. Environ Model Softw 18:413-427
26. Fukushima T, Kureha M, Ozaki N, Fujimori Y, Harasawa H (2002) Influences of air temperature change on leisure industries: case study on ski activities. Mitigation Strategies Clim Chang 7:173-189
27. Galloway R (1988) The potential impact of climate change on Australian ski fields. In: Pearman G (ed) Greenhouse: planning for climatic change. CSIRO, Melbourne, p. 428-437
28. Gimblett R, Skov-Petersen H (2008) Monitoring, simulation, and management of visitor landscapes. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, AZ
29. Grimm V, Berger U, Bastiansen F, Eliassen S and others (2006) A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models. Ecol Modell 198:115-126
30. Hahn F (2004) L'enneigement artificiel dans l'arc alpin: rapport de synthèses. CIPRA Internationale Alpen schutz kommission, available at http://www.cipra.org/fr/alpmedia/publications/2709
31. Hamilton L, Brown C, Keim BD (2007) Ski areas, weather and climate: time series models for New England case studies. Int J Climatol 27:2113-2124
32. Hennessy K, Whetton P, Smith I, Bathols J, Hutchinson M, Sharples J (2003) The impact of climate change on snow conditions in mainland Australia. CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale
33. Heo I, Lee S (2008) The impact of climate changes on ski industries in South Korea in the case of the Yongpyong ski resort. J Korean Geogr Soc 43(5):715-727
34. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007). Climate Change 2007: synthesis report. Summary for policy makers. In: Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Reisinger A (eds) Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva
35. Itami R, Raulings R, MacLaren G, Hirst K, Gimblett R, Zanon D, Chladek P (2002) RBSim 2: simulating the complex interactions between human movement and the outdoor recreation environment. In: Arnberger A, Brandenburg C (eds) Monitoring and management of visitor flows in recreational and protected areas. Conf Proc Institute for Landscape Architecture and Landscape Management, University of Agricultural Sciences, Vienna, p 191-198
36. Janssen MA (2009) Understanding artificial Anasazi. J Art Soc Soc Simulation 12(4):13
37. Johnson PA, Sieber RE (2009) Agent-based modelling: a dynamic scenario planning approach to tourism PSS. In: Geertman S, Stillwell J (eds) Planning support systems: best practices and new methods. Springer, Berlin, p 211-226
38. Johnson PA, Sieber RE (2010) An individual-based approach to modeling tourism dynamics. Tourism Anal 15:517-530
39. Johnson PA, Sieber RE (2011) An agent-based approach to providing tourism planning support. Environ Plann B Plann Des 38:486-504
40. Keller F, Goyette S, Beniston M (2005) Sensitivity analysis of snow cover to climate change scenarios and their impact on plant habitats in alpine terrain. Clim Change 72:299-319
41. König U, Abegg B (1997) Impacts of climate change on tourism in the Swiss Alps. J Sustainable Tourism 5:46-58
42. Lamothe, Périard (1988) Implications of climate change for downhill skiing in Québec. Clim Chang Dig 88-03, Environment Canada, Ottawa
43. Ligmann-Zielinska A, Jankowski P (2007) Agent-based models as laboratories for spatially explicit planning policies. Environ Plann B Plann Des 34:316-335
44. Lipski S, McBoyle G (1991) The impact of global warming on downhill skiing in Michigan. East Lakes Geographer 26:37-51
45. López-Moreno JL, Goyette S, Beniston M (2009) Impact of climate change on snowpack in the Pyrenees: horizontal spatial variability and vertical gradients. J Hydrol (Amst) 374:384-396
46. Manson SM, Evans T (2007) Agent-based modeling of deforestation in southern Yucatan, Mexico, and reforestation in the midwest United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:20678-20683
47. McBoyle G, Wall G (1987) The impact of CO2 induced warming on downhill skiing in the Laurentians. Cah Geogr Que 31:39-50
48. Moen J, Fredman P (2007) Effects of climate change on alpine skiing in Sweden. J Sustainable Tourism 15:418-437
49. Parker DC, Manson S, Janssen MA, Hoffmann MJ, Dead-man P (2003) Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change: a review. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 93:314-337
50. Parrott L, Chion C, Martins C C A, Lamontagne P and others (2011) A decision support system to assist the sustainable management of navigation activities in the St. Lawrence River Estuary, Canada. Environ Model Softw 26:1403-1418
51. Perez L, Dragicevic S (2010) Modeling mountain pine beetle infestation with an agent-based approach at two spatial scales. Environ Model Softw 25:223-236
52. Pütz M, Gallati D, Kytzia S, Elsasser H and others (2011) Winter tourism, climate change, and snowmaking in the Swiss Alps: tourists' attitudes and regional economic impacts. Mt Res Dev 28:292-298
53. Rixen C, Teich M, Lardelli C, Gallati D, Pohl M, Pütz M, Bebi P (2011) Winter tourism and climate change in the Alps: an assessment of resource consumption, snow reliability, and future snowmaking potential. Mt Res Dev 31:229-236
54. Scott D, McBoyle G (2007) Climate change adaptation in the ski industry. Mitigation Adaptation Strategies Glob Chang 12:1411-1431
55. Scott D, McBoyle G, Mills B (2003) Climate change and the skiing industry in southern Ontario (Canada): exploring the importance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation. Clim Res 23:171-181
56. Scott D, McBoyle G, Mills B, Minogue A (2006) Climate change and sustainability of ski-based tourism in eastern North America: a reassessment. J Sustainable Tourism 14:376-398
57. Scott D, McBoyle G, Minogue A (2007) The implications of climate change for the Qeubec ski industry. Glob Environ Change 1:181-190
58. Scott D, Dawson J, Jones B (2008) Climate change vulnerability of the US Northeast winter recreation-tourism sector. Mitigation Adaptation Strategies Glob Chang 13:577-596
59. Shih C, Nicholls S, Holecek DF (2009) Impact of weather on downhill ski lift ticket sales. J Travel Res 47:359-372
60. Smajgl A, Heckbert S, Ward J, Straton A (2009) Simulating impacts of water trading in an institutional perspective. Environ Model Softw 24:191-201
61. Smajgl A, Brown DG, Valbuena D, Huigen M G A (2011) Empirical characterisation agent behaviours in socio-ecological systems. Environ Model Softw 26:837-844
62. Steiger R (2010) The impact of climate change on ski season length and snowmaking requirements in Tyrol, Austria. Clim Res 43:251-262
63. Steiger R, Mayer M (2008) Snowmaking and climate change. Future options for snow production in Tyrolean ski resorts. Mt Res Dev 28:292-298
64. Töglhofer C, Eigner F, Prettenthaler F (2011) Impacts of snow conditions on tourism demand in Austrian ski areas. Clim Res 46:1-14
65. Torrens PM (2003) Cellular automata and multi-agent systems as planning support tools. In: Geertman S, Stillwell J (eds) Planning support systems in practice. Springer, Berlin, p 205-222.
66. Uhlmann B, Goyette S, Beniston M (2009) Sensitivity analysis of snow patterns in Swiss ski resorts to shifts in temperature, precipitation and humidity under condition of climate change. Int J Climatol 29:1048-1055.
67. Unbehaun W, Probstl U, Haider W (2008) Trends in winter sports tourism: challenges for the future. Tourism Rev 63:36-47
68. Wilensky U (1999) NetLogo (and NetLogo user manual). Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL. http://ccl. northwestern. edu/netlogo
69. Witmer U (1986) Erfassung, Bearbeitung und Kartierung von Schnee daten in der Schweiz. Geographica Bernen-sia G25
70. World Tourism Organization (WTO) (2003) Climate change and tourism. Proc 1st Int Conf Clim Chang Tourism, Djerba, Tunisia, 9-11 April 2003. UN World Tourism Or gani sation, Madrid
71. Yang J, Wan C (2010) Progress in research on the impacts of global climate change on winter ski tourism. Adv Clim Chang Res 1(2):55-62