Uncertainty of lateral boundary conditions in a convection-permitting ensemble: A strategy of selection for Mediterranean heavy precipitation events

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science

Volumn 12, Issue 10, 2012, Pages 2993-3011

  Nuissier, O ^a   Joly, B ^a   Vie B ^a   Ducrocq, V ^a  

^a CENTRE NATIONAL DE RECHERCHES MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADVECTION; BOUNDARY CONDITION; CLUSTER ANALYSIS; COLD FRONT; CONVECTION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT; MESOSCALE METEOROLOGY; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RAINFALL; TORRENT; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER VAPOR;

FRANCE; GULF OF LION; MEDITERRANEAN SEA;

EID: 84867473657     PISSN: 15618633     EISSN: 16849981     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-12-2993-2012     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Bénard, P.: On the use of a wider class of linear systems for the design of constantcoefficients semi-implicit time schemes in NWP, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 1319-1324, 2004. (Pubitemid 38673079)
2. Bouttier, F., Vié, B., Nuissier, O., and Raynaud, L.: Impact of stochatic physics in a convection-permitting ensemble, Mon. Weather Rev., doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00031.1, 2012.
3. Bresson, E.: Mécanismes de formation des systèmes convectifs quasi-stationnaires en Méditerranée nord-occidentale, Application au cas du 15 Juin 2010 sur le Var, Ph.D. thesis, Université Toulouse III Paul Sabatier, 2011.
4. Bresson, R., Ricard, D., and Ducrocq, V.: Idealized mesoscale numerical study of Mediterranean heavy precipitating convective systems, Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 103, 45-56, 2009.
5. Bubnova, R., Hello, G., Bénard, P., and Geleyn, J.-F.: Integration of the fully elastic equations cast in the hydrostatic pressure terrain-following coordinate in the framework of the ARPEGE/Aladin NWP system, Mon. Weather Rev., 123, 515-535, 1995.
6. Caniaux, G., Redelsperger, J.-L., and Lafore, J.-P.: A numerical study of the stratiform region of a fast-moving squall line. 1. general description and water and heat budgets, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2046-2074, 1994.
7. Chancibault, K., Anquetin, S., Ducrocq, V., and Saulnier, G.-M.: Hydrological evaluation of high-resolution precipitation forecasts of the Gard flash-flood event (8-9 September 2002), Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 1091-1117, 2006. (Pubitemid 44097066)
8. Cuxart, J., Bougeault, P., and Redelsperger, J.-L.: A turbulence scheme allowing for mesoscale and large-eddy simulations, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 1-30, 2000. (Pubitemid 30178324)
9. Ducrocq, V., Nuissier, O., Ricard, D., Lebeaupin, C., and Thou-venin, T.: A numerical study of three catastrophic precipitatating events over southern France, II: Mesoscale triggering and sta-tionarity factors, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 131-145, 2008. (Pubitemid 351512718)
10. Federico, S., Avolio, E., Bellecci, C., Lavagnini, A., and Walko, R. L.: Predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediter-raneanbasin: sensitivity to upper-level forcing, Adv. Geosci., 12, 5-18, doi:10.5194/adgeo- 12-5-2007, 2007. (Pubitemid 47138550)
11. Fritsch, J. and Carbone, R.: Improving quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season: a USWRP research and development strategy., B. Am. Meteor. Soc., 85, 955-965, 2004.
12. Gebhardt, C., Theis, S., Paulat, M., and Ben Bouallègue, Z.: Uncertainties in COSMO-DE precipitation forecasts introduced by model perturbations and variation of lateral boundaries, Atmos. Res., 100, 168-177, 2011.
13. Grimit, E. and Mass, C.: Initial results of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecasting system over the Pacific North-West, Weather Forecast., 17, 192-205, 2002.
14. Hohenegger, C. and Schär, C.: Predictability and error growth dynamics in cloud-resolving models, J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 4467-4478, 2007.
15. Hohenegger, C., Lüthi, D., and Schär, C.: Predictability mysteries in cloud-resolving models, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 2095-2107, 2006. (Pubitemid 44275526)
16. Kong, F., Xue, M., Droegemeier, K., Bright, D., Coniglio, M., Thomas, K., Wang, Y., Weber, D., Kain, J., Weiss, S., and Du, J.: Preliminary analysis on the real-time storm-scale ensemble forecasts produced as part of the NOAA hazardous weather testbed 2007 spring experiment, in: 22nd Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Amer. Meteor. Soc., vol 3B.2, available at: http://ams.confex.com/ams/22WAF18NWP/ techprogram/paper 124667%.htm, 2007.
17. Lafore, J. P., Stein, J., Asencio, N., Bougeault, P., Ducrocq, V., Duron, J., Fischer, C., Héreil, P., Mascart, P., Masson, V., Pinty, J. P., Redelsperger, J. L., Richard, E., and Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, J.: The Meso-NH Atmospheric Simulation System. Part I: adi-abatic formulation and control simulations, Ann. Geophys., 16, 90-109, doi:10.1007/s00585-997-0090-6, 1998. .
18. Marsigli, C., Montani, A., Nerozzi, F., Paccagnella, T., Tibaldi, S., Molteni, F., and Buizza, R.: A strategy for high resolution ensemble prediction, II: Limited-area experiments in four Alpine flood events, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 2095-2115, 2001. (Pubitemid 32914318)
19. Marsigli, C., Boccanera, F., Montani, A., and Paccagnella, T.: The COSMO-LEPS mesoscale ensemble system: validation of the methodology and verification, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 12, 527-536, doi:10.5194/npg-12-527- 2005, 2005. (Pubitemid 41029981)
20. Mass, C., Ovens, D., Westrick, K., and Colle, B.: Does increasing horizontal resolution produce more skillful forecasts?, B. Am. Meteor. Soc., 83, 407-430, 2002.
21. Molteni, F. and Palmer, T.: Predictability and finite time instability of the northern winter circulation, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 269-298, 1993. (Pubitemid 23381918)
22. Molteni, F., Buizza, F., Palmer, T., and T., and Petroliagis, T.: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 73-119, 1996.
23. Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Marsigli, C., Montani, A., Nerozzi, F., and Paccagnella, T.: A strategy for high resolution ensemble prediction. I: Definition of representative numbers and global-model experiments, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 2069-2094, 2001.
24. Montani, A., Marsigli, C., Nerozzi, F., Paccagnella, T., Tibaldi, S., and Buizza, R.: The Soverato flood in Southern Italy: performance of global and limited-area ensemble forecasts, Non-lin. Processes Geophys., 10, 261-274, doi:10.5194/npg-10-261-2003, 2003. (Pubitemid 36755756)
25. Montani, A., Cesari, D., Marsigli, C., and Paccagnella, T.: Seven years of activity in the field of mesoscale ensemble forecasting by the COSMO-LEPS system: main achievements and open challenges, Tellus A, 63, 605-624, 2011.
26. Nuissier, O., Ducrocq, V., Ricard, D., Lebeaupin, C., and Anquetin, S.: A numerical study of three catastrophic precipitating events over southern France, I: Numerical framework and synoptic ingredients, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 111-130, 2008. (Pubitemid 351512717)
27. Nuissier, O., Joly, B., Joly, A., Ducrocq, V., and Arbogast, P.: A statistical downscaling to identify the large-scale circulation patterns associated with heavy precipitation events over southern France, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 1812-1827, 2011.
28. Nutter, P., Stensrud, D., and Xue, M.: Effects of coarsely resolved and temporally interpolated lateral boundary conditions on the dispersion of limted-area ensemble forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 2358-2377, 2004. (Pubitemid 39464369)
29. Pergaud, J., Masson, V., and Malardel, S.: A parameterization of dry thermals and shallow cumuli for mesoscale numerical weather prediction, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 132, 83-106, 2009.
30. Richard, E., Cosma, S., Tabary, P., Pinty, J.-P., and Hagen, M.: High-resolution numerical simulations of the convective system observed in the Lago Maggiore area on 17 September 1999 (MAP IOP 2a), Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 543-564, 2003.
31. Seity, Y., Brousseau, P., Malardel, S., Hello, G., Bénard, P., Bout-tier, F., Lac, C., and Masson, V.: The AROME-France convec-tive scale operational model, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 976-991, 2011.
32. Stein, J., Richard, E., Lafore, J.-P., Pinty, J.-P., Asencio, N., and Cosma, S.: High-resolution non-hydrostatic simulations of flash-flood episodes with grid-nesting and ice phase, Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 72, 203-221, 2000.
33. Stensrud, D., Bao, J., and Warner, T.: Using initial conditions and model physics in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective systems, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 2077-2107, 2000.
34. Toth, Z. and Kalnay, E.: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method, Mon. Weather Rev., 125, 3297-3319, 1997. (Pubitemid 127667540)
35. Vié, B., Nuissier, O., and Ducrocq, V.: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations of mediterranean heavy precipitating events: uncertainty on initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 403-423, 2011.
36. Vincendon, B., Ducrocq, V., Saulnier, G., Bouilloud, L., Chancibault, K., Habets, F., and Noilhan, J.: Benefit of coupling the ISBA land surface model with a TOPMODEL hydrological model dedicated to Mediterranean flash floods, J. Hydrol., 11, 1529-1544, 2010.
37. Walser, A., Lüthi, D., and Schär, C.: Predictability of precipitation in a cloud-resolving model, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 560-577, 2004. (Pubitemid 38335450)
38. Zappa, M., Beven, K., Bruen, M., Cofino, A., Kok, K., Martin, E., Nurmi, P., Orfila, B., Roulin, E., Schroter, K., Seed, A., Szturc, J., Vehvilainen, B. Germann, U., and Rossa, A.: Propagation of uncertainty from observing systems and NWP into hydrological models: COST-731 working group 2, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 11, 83-91, 2010.
39. Zhang, F., Meng, Z., and Aksoy, A.: Tests of an ensemble Kalman filter for mesoscale and regional-scale data assimilation, Part I: perfect model experiments, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 722-736, 2006.