Effects of coarsely resolved and temporally interpolated lateral boundary conditions on the dispersion of limited-area ensemble forecasts

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 132, Issue 10, 2004, Pages 2358-2377

  Nutter, Paul ^a   Stensrud, David ^b   Xue, Ming ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA   (United States)

^b NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BOUNDARY CONDITIONS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; INTERPOLATION; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PERTURBATION TECHNIQUES; STATISTICAL METHODS;

BAROTROPIC CHANNEL MODELS; ENSEMBLE FORECASTS; LATERAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS (LBC); LIMITED-AREA-MODEL (LAM);

WEATHER FORECASTING;

BOUNDARY CONDITION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; ERROR ANALYSIS; FORECASTING METHOD;

EID: 2442492629     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<2358:EOCRAT>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Anthes, R. A., 1986: The general question of predictability. Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting, Amer. Meteor. Soc. 636-656.
2. Anthes, R. A., Y.-H. Kuo, D. P. Baumhefner, R. M. Errico, and T. W. Betgge, 1985: Predictability of mesoscale atmospheric motions. Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 28, Academic Press, 159-202.
3. Anthes, R. A., Y.-H. Kuo., E.-Y Hsie, S. Low-Nam, and T. W. Bettge, 1989: Estimation of skill and uncertainty in regional numerical models. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 115, 763-806.
4. Arakawa, A., 1966: Computational design for long-term numerical integrations of the equations of fluid motion: Two-dimensional incompressible flow. Part i. J. Comput. Phys., 1, 119-143.
5. Baumhefner, D. P., 1984: The relationship between present large-scale forecast skill and new estimates of predictability error growth. Predictability of Fluid Motions, G. Holloway and B. J. West, Eds., American Institute of Physics, 169-180.
6. Baumhefner, D. P. and D. J. Perkey, 1982: Evaluation of lateral boundary errors in a limited-domain model. Tellus, 34, 409-428.
7. Boer, G. J., 1984: A spectral analysis of predictability and error in an operational forecast system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1183-1197.
8. Charney, J. G., R. G. Fleagle, V. E. Lally, H. Riehl, and D. Q. Wark, 1966: The feasibility of a global observation and analysis experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 47, 200-220.
9. Dalcher, A., and E. Kalnay, 1987: Error growth and predictability in operational ECMWF forecasts. Tellus, 39A, 474-491.
10. Davies, H. C., 1976: A lateral boundary formulation for multilevel prediction models. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 102, 405-418.
11. Davies. H. C., 1983: Limitations of some common lateral boundary schemes used in regional NWP models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1002-1012.
12. De Elía, R., and R. Laprise, 2002: Forecasting skill limits of nested, limited-area models: A perfect-model approach. Mon. Wea. Rev , 130, 2006-2023.
13. Denis, B., J. Côté, and R. Laprise, 2002a: Spectral decomposition of two-dimensional atmospheric fields on limited-area domains using the discrete cosine transform (DCT). Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1812-1829.
14. Denis, B., R. Laprise, D. Caya, and J. Côté, 2002b: Downscaling ability of one-way nested regional climate models: The big-brother experiment. Climate Dyn., 18, 627-646.
15. Denis, B., R. Laprise, D., and D. Caya, 2003: Sensitivity of a regional climate model to the resoultion of the lateral boundary conditions. Climate Dyn., 20, 107-126.
16. Du, J., and M. S. Tracton, 1999: Impact of lateral boundary conditions on regional-model ensemble prediction. Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modeling, H. Ritchie, Ed., WMO TD942, Rep. 28, 6.7-6.8.
17. Durran, D., 1999: Numerical Methods for Wave Equations in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics. Springer-Verlag, 465 pp.
18. Errico, R. M., 1985: Spectra computed from a limited area grid. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 1554-1562.
19. Errico, R. M., 1987: A comparison between two limited-area spectral analysis schemes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2856-2861.
20. Errico, R. M., and D. Baumhefner, 1987: Predictability experiments using a high-resolution limited-area model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 488-504.
21. Hamill, T. M., 2001: Interpretation of rank histograms for verifying ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 550-560.
22. Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1997: Verification of Eta-RSM short-range ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1312-1327.
23. Harrison, M., T. Palmer, D. Richardson, and R. Buizza, 1999: Analysis and model dependencies in medium-range ensembles: Two transplant case studies. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 2487-2515.
24. Holton, J. R., 1979: An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology. 2d ed. Academic Press, 391 pp.
25. Hou, D., E. Kalnay, and K. K. Drogemeier, 2001: Objective verification of the SAMEX '98 ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 73-91.
26. Laprise, R., 2003: Resolved scales and nonlinear interactions in limited-area models. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 768-779.
27. Laprise. R., M. R. Varma, B. Denis, D. Caya, and I. Zawadzki, 2000: Predictability of a nested limited-area model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 4149-4154.
28. Leith, C. E., 1971: Atmospheric predictability and two-dimensional turbulence. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 145-161.
29. Leith, C., 1974: Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 409-418.
30. Leith, C., and R. H. Kraichnan, 1972: Predictability of turbulent flows. J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 1041-1058.
31. Lilly, D. K., 1984: Some facets of the predictability problem for atmospheric mesoscales. Predictability of Fluid Motions, G.Holloway and B. J. West, Eds., American Institute of Physics, 287-294.
32. Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci , 20, 131-140.
33. Lorenz, E. N., 1969a: Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues. J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 636-646.
34. Lorenz, E. N., 1969b: The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion. Tellus, 21, 289-307.
35. Lorenz, E. N., 1969c: Three approaches to atmospheric predictability. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 50, 345-349.
36. Lorenz, E. N., 1982: Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model. Tellus, 34, 505-513.
37. Lorenz, E. N., 1984: Estimates of atmospheric predictability at medium range. Predictability of Fluid Motions, G. Holloway and B. J. West, Eds., American Institute of Physics, 133-140.
38. Nutter, P., 2003: Effects of nesting frequency and lateral boundary perturbations on the dispersion of limited-area ensemble forecasts. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Oklahoma, 156 pp.
39. Nutter, P., M. Xue, and D. Stensrud, 2004: Application of lateral boundary condition perturbations to help restore dispersion in limited-area ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2378-2390.
40. Orrell, D., L. Smith, J. Barkmeijer, and T. Palmer, 2001: Model error in weather forecasting. Nonlinear Proc. Geophys., 8, 357-371.
41. Paegle, J., Q. Yang, and M. Wang, 1997: Predictability in limited area and global models. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 63, 53-69.
42. Reynolds, C. A., P. J. Webster, and E. Kalnay, 1994: Random error growth in NMC's global forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 1281-1305.
43. Schubert, S. D., and M. Suarez, 1989: Dynamical predictability in simple general circulation model: Average error growth. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 353-370.
44. Smagorinsky, J., 1969: Problems and promises of deterministic extended range forecasting. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 50, 286-311.
45. Stephenson, D. B., and F. J. Doblas-Reyes, 2000: Statistical methods for interpreting Monte Carlo ensemble forecasts. Tellus, 52A, 300-322.
46. Tennekes, H., 1978: Turbulent flow in two- and three-dimensions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 59, 22-28.
47. Thompson, P. D., 1957: Uncertainty of initial state as a factor in the predictability of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns. Tellus, 9, 275-295.
48. Thompson, P. D., 1984: A review of the predictability problem. Predictability of Fluid Motions, G. Holloway and B. J. West, Eds., American Institute of Physics, 1-10.
49. Toth, Z., E. Kalnay, S. M. Tracton, R. Wobus, and J. Irwin, 1997: A synoptic evaluation of the NCEP ensemble. Wea. Forecasting, 12 140-153.
50. Van Tuyl, A. H., and R. M. Errico, 1989: Scale interaction and predictability in a mesoscale model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 495-517.
51. Vukicevic, T., and J. Paegle, 1989: The influence of one-way interacting lateral boundary conditions on predictability of flow in bounded numerical models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 340-350.
52. Vukicevic, T. and R. M. Errico, 1990: The influence of artificial and physical factors upon predictability estimates using a complex limited-area model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 1460-1482.
53. Wandishin, M. L., S. L. Mullen, D. J. Stensrud, and H. E. Brooks, 2001: Evaluation of a short-range multimodel ensemble system. Mon. Wea. Rev , 129, 729-747.
54. Warner, T. T., L. E. Key, and A. M. Lario, 1989: Sensitivity of mesoscale-model forecast skill to some initial-data characteristics, data density, data position, analysis procedure and measurement error. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 1281-1310.
55. Warner, T. T., R. A. Peterson, and R. E. Treadon, 1997: A tutorial on lateral boundary conditions as a basic and potentially serious limitation to regional numerical weather prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2599-2617.
56. Xue, M., 2000: High-order monotonic numerical diffusion and smoothing. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 2853-2864.