메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 100, Issue 2-3, 2011, Pages 168-177

Uncertainties in COSMO-DE precipitation forecasts introduced by model perturbations and variation of lateral boundaries

Author keywords

Convection permitting; Ensemble; Precipitation; Probabilistic; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

CONVECTION-PERMITTING; ENSEMBLE; PRECIPITATION; PROBABILISTIC; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 79954633018     PISSN: 01698095     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.12.008     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (184)

References (27)
  • 1
    • 79954630880 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of MAP D-PHASE heavy precipitation alerts in Switzerland during summer 2007
    • (this issue)
    • Ament F., Weusthoff T., Arpagaus M. Evaluation of MAP D-PHASE heavy precipitation alerts in Switzerland during summer 2007. Atmos. Res. 2011, 100:178-189. (this issue).
    • (2011) Atmos. Res. , vol.100 , pp. 178-189
    • Ament, F.1    Weusthoff, T.2    Arpagaus, M.3
  • 3
    • 45149094720 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparison of stochastic parametrization approaches in a single-column model
    • Ball M.A., Plant R.S. Comparison of stochastic parametrization approaches in a single-column model. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A 2008, 366:2605-2623.
    • (2008) Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A , vol.366 , pp. 2605-2623
    • Ball, M.A.1    Plant, R.S.2
  • 5
    • 0003010182 scopus 로고
    • Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
    • Brier G.W. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1950, 78:1-3.
    • (1950) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.78 , pp. 1-3
    • Brier, G.W.1
  • 6
    • 0002531176 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction, and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
    • Buizza R. Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction, and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1997, 125:99-119.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 99-119
    • Buizza, R.1
  • 7
    • 0033403384 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
    • Buizza R., Miller M., Palmer T.N. Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meterol. Soc. 1999, 125:2887-2908.
    • (1999) Q. J. R. Meterol. Soc. , vol.125 , pp. 2887-2908
    • Buizza, R.1    Miller, M.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 8
    • 74549175657 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of precipitation forecast skill between small convection-allowing and large convection-parameterizing ensembles
    • Clark A.J., Gallus W.A., Xue M., Kong F. A comparison of precipitation forecast skill between small convection-allowing and large convection-parameterizing ensembles. Wea. Forecasting 2009, 24:1121-1140.
    • (2009) Wea. Forecasting , vol.24 , pp. 1121-1140
    • Clark, A.J.1    Gallus, W.A.2    Xue, M.3    Kong, F.4
  • 10
    • 0038707202 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The WGNE assessment of short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts
    • Ebert E.E., Damrath U., Wergen W., Baldwin M.E. The WGNE assessment of short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2003, 84:481-492.
    • (2003) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.84 , pp. 481-492
    • Ebert, E.E.1    Damrath, U.2    Wergen, W.3    Baldwin, M.E.4
  • 11
    • 4143114555 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improving quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season
    • Fritsch J.M., Carbone R.E. Improving quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2004, 85:955-965.
    • (2004) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.85 , pp. 955-965
    • Fritsch, J.M.1    Carbone, R.E.2
  • 13
    • 60349095254 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Experimental ensemble forecasts of precipitation based on a convection-resolving model
    • Gebhardt C., Theis S., Krahe P., Renner V. Experimental ensemble forecasts of precipitation based on a convection-resolving model. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 2008, 9:67-72.
    • (2008) Atmos. Sci. Lett. , vol.9 , pp. 67-72
    • Gebhardt, C.1    Theis, S.2    Krahe, P.3    Renner, V.4
  • 14
    • 79954630125 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An operational tool to enhance quality of 2D-precipitation data for data assimilation. Accepted for publication in Int. J. Remote Sens.
    • Helmert, K., Hassler, B., Seltmann, J., 2011. An operational tool to enhance quality of 2D-precipitation data for data assimilation. Accepted for publication in Int. J. Remote Sens.
    • (2011)
    • Helmert, K.1    Hassler, B.2    Seltmann, J.3
  • 15
    • 38349185653 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability and error growth dynamics in cloud-resolving models
    • Hohenegger C., Schär C. Predictability and error growth dynamics in cloud-resolving models. J. Atmos. Sci. 2007, 64:4467-4478.
    • (2007) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.64 , pp. 4467-4478
    • Hohenegger, C.1    Schär, C.2
  • 16
    • 24144454647 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Roots of ensemble forecasting
    • Lewis J.M. Roots of ensemble forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2005, 133:1865-1885.
    • (2005) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.133 , pp. 1865-1885
    • Lewis, J.M.1
  • 19
    • 0035086606 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A nonlinear dynamical perspective on model error: a proposal for non-local stochastic-dynamic parametrization in weather and climate prediction models
    • Palmer T.N. A nonlinear dynamical perspective on model error: a proposal for non-local stochastic-dynamic parametrization in weather and climate prediction models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2001, 127:279-304.
    • (2001) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.127 , pp. 279-304
    • Palmer, T.N.1
  • 21
    • 0000322510 scopus 로고
    • The critical success index as an indicator of warning skill
    • Schaefer J.T. The critical success index as an indicator of warning skill. Wea. Forecasting 1990, 5:570-575.
    • (1990) Wea. Forecasting , vol.5 , pp. 570-575
    • Schaefer, J.T.1
  • 22
    • 0034292466 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The correspondence ratio in forecast evaluation
    • Stensrud D.J., Wandishin M.S. The correspondence ratio in forecast evaluation. Wea. Forecasting 2000, 15:593-602.
    • (2000) Wea. Forecasting , vol.15 , pp. 593-602
    • Stensrud, D.J.1    Wandishin, M.S.2
  • 23
    • 50949123739 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assimilation of radar-derived rain rates into the convective-scale model COSMO-DE at DWD
    • Stephan K., Klink S., Schraff C. Assimilation of radar-derived rain rates into the convective-scale model COSMO-DE at DWD. Q. J. R. Meterol. Soc. 2008, 134:1315-1326.
    • (2008) Q. J. R. Meterol. Soc. , vol.134 , pp. 1315-1326
    • Stephan, K.1    Klink, S.2    Schraff, C.3
  • 24
    • 77958478357 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing the benefits of convection-permitting models by neighborhood verification: examples from MAP D-PHASE
    • Weusthoff T., Ament F., Arpagaus M., Rotach M.W. Assessing the benefits of convection-permitting models by neighborhood verification: examples from MAP D-PHASE. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2010, 138:3418-3433.
    • (2010) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.138 , pp. 3418-3433
    • Weusthoff, T.1    Ament, F.2    Arpagaus, M.3    Rotach, M.W.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.