Explaining success and failure in climate policies: Developing theory through German case studies

Comparative Politics

Volumn 45, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 46-68

  Karapin, Roger ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 84867007208     PISSN: 00104159     EISSN: 21516227     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5129/001041512802822879     Document Type: Article

References (210)

1. For example, Miranda Schreurs, Environmental Politics in Japan, Germany, and the United States (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002);
2. Shizuka Oshitani, Global Warming Policy in Japan and Britain (Manchester, UK: Manchester University Press, 2006);
3. Paul Harris, Europe and Global Climate Change (Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2007);
4. Hugh Compston and Ian Bailey, eds., Turning Down the Heat (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008).
5. Those that do include Markus Crepaz, "Explaining National Variations of Air Pollution Levels," Environmental Politics, 4 (1995): 391-414;
6. and Eric Neumayer, "Are Left-Wing Party Strength and Corporatism Good for the Environment?" Ecological Economics, 45 (June 2003): 203-20.
7. These use CO2 emissions per capita in 1990 or 2000 as dependent variables; however, these cannot capture the effects of recent policies. Two unpublished papers using measures of changes in emissions are Klaus Armingeon, "Encompassing Institutions and CO2 Emissions";
8. and Detlef Jahn, "The Politics of Climate Change"; both were prepared for the ECPR Joint Sessions of Workshops, April 11-16, 2008, Rennes, France.
9. Cf. Michele Bättig and Thomas Bernauer, "National Institutions and Global Public Goods," International Organization, 63 (December 2008): 281-308.
10. Alexander George and Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005).
11. UNFCCC [United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change], "National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data for the Period 1990-2009," Submitted to the Subsidiary Body for Implementation, November 16, 2011, p. 15.
12. Joachim Schleich, et al., "Greenhouse Gas Reductions in Germany," Climate Policy, 1 (September 2001): 363-80;
13. Axel Michaelowa, "Germany," Climate Policy, 3 (January 2003): 31-43;
14. "German Climate Policy between Global Leadership and Muddling Through," in Hugh Compston and Ian Bailey, eds., Turning Down the Heat (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008), pp. 144-63;
15. Roger Karapin, "Environmental Performance and Ecological Damage," German Politics and Society (Autumn 2012), forthcoming.
16. A number of major studies of environmental outcomes were done in the mid- and late 1990s: Crepaz; Martin Jänicke and Helmut Weidner, Successful Environmental Policy (Berlin: Sigma, 1995);
17. National Environmental Policies (Berlin: Springer Verlag, 1997);
18. Jänicke, Umweltpolitik der Industrieländer (Berlin: Edition Sigma, 1996);
19. Christian Ricken, Determinanten der Effektivität der Umweltpolitik (New York: Peter Lang, 1997);
20. Detlef Jahn, "Environmental Performance and Policy Regimes," Policy Sciences, 31 (June 1998): 107-31;
21. Lyle Scruggs, "Political and Economic Inequality and the Environment," Ecological Economics, 26 (September 1998): 259-75;
22. Scruggs, "Institutions and Environmental Performance in Seventeen Western Democracies," British Journal of Political Science, 29 (January 1999): 1-31.
23. However, less has been published since then, e.g., Neumayer; Scruggs, Sustaining Abundance (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003);
24. Andreas Duit, et al., "Saving the Woodpeckers," Journal of Environment and Development, 18 (March 2009): 42-61.
25. Ricken, pp. 40-41;
26. Per-Olof Busch, Klaus Jacob, and Nana Künkel, "Modeling Environmental Capacities of Nation States," Paper presented at the Amsterdam Conference on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change, May 24-26, 2007;
27. Andreas Duit, "Understanding Environmental Performance of States," Quality of Government Working Paper 7, Góteborg University, 2005, p. 14.
28. The most important include Jänicke and Weidner, Successful Environmental Policy;
29. National Environmental Policies; Crepaz;
30. Jänicke, Umweltpolitik der Industrieländer;
31. Jahn, "Environmental Performance,"
32. Scruggs, "Institutions";
33. Sustaining Abundance;
34. Neumayer, Exceptions include Neumayer;
35. Jahn, "Politics of Climate Change.
36. George and Bennett, pp. 19-21.
37. Evan Lieberman, "Nested Analysis as a Mixed-Method Strategy for Comparative Research," American Political Science Review, 99 (August 2005): 435-52, at p. 440.
38. George and Bennett, pp. 20-21.
39. Duit, "Understanding Environmental Performance," p. 6.
40. For example, Scruggs, Sustaining Abundance;
41. Jahn, "Environmental Performance.
42. Scruggs, Sustaining Abundance, pp. 13-14;
43. Crepaz, pp. 391-92, 395-400;
44. Neumayer, p. 205.
45. Crepaz, pp. 394-95;
46. Scruggs, "Institutions," pp. 3-4;
47. Oshitani, pp. 44-45;
48. Jahn, "Environmental Performance," p. 119;
49. Neumayer, p. 206.
50. Robert Falkner, Business Power and Conflict in International Environmental Politics (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008), pp. 97-99.
51. Scruggs, Sustaining Abundance, ch. 5;
52. "Institutions," pp. 30-31;
53. Jahn, "Environmental Performance," p. 125;
54. Crepaz; Ricken, pp. 205-10, p. 238.
55. Neumayer, p. 219.
56. Michael Hatch, "Voluntary Agreements" in Hatch, ed., Environmental Policymaking (Albany, NY: SUNY Press, 2005), pp. 97-124, at 104;
57. Hatch, "The Europeanization of German Climate Change Policy," Paper prepared for the EUSATenth Biennial International Conference, Montreal, Canada, May 17-19, 2007, pp. 8-9;
58. Scruggs, Sustaining Abundance, pp. 222-23.
59. Christiane Beuermann and Jill Jäger, "Climate Change Politics in Germany," in Tim O'Riordan and Jäger, The Politics of Climate Change (London: Routledge, 1996), pp. 186-227, at p. 189.
60. cf. Alan Siaroff, "Corporatism in 24 Industrial Democracies," European Journal of Political Research, 36 (October 1999): 175-205.
61. Scruggs ranks Western Germany as "strong/very strong," effectively at 3.5 on a scale of 1-4 (from very weak to very strong); cf. Scruggs, Sustaining Abundance, pp. 219-28. Thus, the Federal Republic of Germany would score 82 or 83 if either of these indices were placed on a 0-100 scale.
62. Jahn, "Environmental Performance," p. 124;
63. Neumayer, p. 218.
64. Scruggs, "Institutions," pp. 27-28;
65. Armingeon, p. 10.
66. Scruggs reviews the debate in Sustaining Abundance, pp. 56-62;
67. see also Martin Jänicke, Harald Mónch, and Manfred Binder, "Umweltindikatorenprofile im Industrieländervergleich," in Jänicke, ed., Umweltpolitik der Industrieländer (Berlin: Edition Sigma, 1996), pp. 113-31.
68. Jänicke, Mónch, and Binder, pp. 129-30;
69. Jänicke, Megatrend Umweltinnovation (Munich: Oekom Verlag, 2008), pp. 172-75.
70. Nemat Shafik and Sushenjit Bandyopadyhay, "Economic Growth and Environmental Quality," Background Paper for the World Development Report (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1992), p. 10;
71. Jahn, "Politics of Climate Change."
72. Scruggs, Sustaining Abundance, pp. 111, 120.
73. Jahn, "Environmental Performance," pp. 123-25.
74. For example, Paul Sabatier, "An Advocacy Coalition Framework of Policy Change and the Role of Policy-Oriented Learning Therein," Policy Sciences, 21 (June 1988): 129-68;
75. Sabatier and Christopher Weible, "The Advocacy Coalition Framework," in Sabatier, ed., Theories of the Policy Process, 2nd ed. (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2007), pp. 189-220;
76. Martin Jänicke, "Trend Setters in Environmental Policy," European Environment, 15 (March 2005): 129-42, at p. 138;
77. Gesine Jost and Klaus Jacob, "The Climate Change Policy Network in Germany," European Environment, 14 (February 2004): 1-15;
78. Rie Watanabe, A Comparative Analysis on Climate Policy Change Processes Between Germany and Japan, Ph.D. Dissertation, Free University of Berlin, 2009.
79. Sabatier and Weible, p. 202.
80. Sabatier, pp. 131-34.
81. Helmut Weidner and Burkard Eberlein, "Still Walking the Talk?" in Eberlein and Bruce Doern, eds., Governing the Energy Challenge (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2009), pp. 314-43, at pp. 319-21.
82. UNFCCC, pp. 9, 15; these data include the six Kyoto greenhouse gases while excluding contributions from land use, land use changes, and forestry.
83. This assumes a global budget of 1500 gigatons over the 2000-2049 period, a residual 25 percent risk of exceeding two degrees of warming, and an average world population of eight billion; the first two assumptions are from Malte Meinshausen, et al., "Greenhouse Gas Emission Targets for Limiting Global Warming to 2 Degrees C," Nature, 458 (April 30, 2009), pp. 1158-63. There is, of course, substantial uncertainty about such estimates.
84. Federal Republic of Germany, Fourth National Report by the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany (4th National Communication), Report under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, July 2006;
85. Fifth National Report by the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany (5th National Communication), Report under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, n.d. [November 2010].
86. Schleich, et al.; BMU [Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit], Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen (Berlin: idem., 2011);
87. Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung and Öko-Institut, Klimaschutzpotenziale der Abfallwirtschaft (Berlin: idem., January 2010);
88. Stefan Bach, Michael Kohlhaas, and Barbara Praetorius, "The Effects of the Ecological Tax Reform in Germany," Economic Bulletin, 38 (May 2001): 165-70;
89. Michael Kohlhaas, "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte der ókologischen Steuerreform," Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin, August 2005;
90. Hans-Joachim Ziesing, "Milde Witterung lässt CO2-Emissionen in Deutschland 2011 sinken," Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen, 62 (2012): 30-37.
91. Schleich, et al.; Geoffrey Kelly, National Policy Choices for an International Problem, Ph.D. Dissertation, Faculty of Commerce, University of Wollongong, Australia, 2008.
92. Hans-Joachim Ziesing, "Kräftiger Anstieg der CO2-Emissionen in Deutschland," Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen 61 (2011): 61-68, at Table 3.
93. Michaelowa, "Germany," pp. 32-33;
94. Umweltbundesamt, Data on the Environment, 2005 ed. (Dessau, Germany: idem., 2005), pp. 27-28.
95. Jeannine Cavender and Jill Jäger, "The History of Germany's Response to Climate Change," International Environmental Affairs, 5 (1993): 3-18, at p. 11.
96. Christiane Beuermann, "Germany," in William Lafferty and James Meadowcroft, Implementing Sustainable Development (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000), pp. 85-111, at p. 100;
97. Udo Kords, "Tätigkeit und Handlungsempfehlungen der beiden Klima-Enquete-Kommissionen des Deutschen Bundestages (1987-1994)," in Hans Günther Brauch, ed., Klimapolitik (Berlin: Springer, 1996), pp. 203-14, at p. 204;
98. "Die Klima-Katastrophe - Ozon-Loch, Pol-Schmelze, Treibhaus-Effekt," Der Spiegel 1986/33 (August 11, 1986).
99. Mark Peplow, "Counting the Dead," Nature, 440 (April 20, 2006): 982-83, at p. 983.
100. Watanabe, Rie and LutzMez, "The Development of Climate Change Policy in Germany," International Review for Environmental Strategies, 5 (2004): 109-26, at p. 111.
101. Guri Bang, Sources of Influence in Climate Change Policymaking, Dr. Polit. thesis submitted to the Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, June 2003, p. 217.
102. These responses were also made possible by earlier political and policy developments, including the adoption of strong air pollution policies in the 1970s, the environmental movement and the rise of the Green party, and the rise of environmental issues such as nuclear power and "forest death" due to acid deposition in the 1970s and 1980s; cf. Weidner and Eberlein, pp. 318, 333.
103. Watanabe and Mez, p. 111.
104. Watanabe and Mez, p. 112;
105. Jänicke, Megatrend, p. 92;
106. Beuermann, pp. 100-01.
107. Bang, p. 107.
108. Volkmar Lauber and Lutz Mez, "Renewable Electricity Policy in Germany, 1974 to 2005," Bulletin of Science, Technology and Society, 26 (2006): 105-20, at pp. 105-06;
109. Enquete Commission, "Dritter Bericht der Enquete Kommission Vorsorge zum Schutz der Erdatmosphäre, zum Thema Schutz der Erde," Bundestag Drucksache, 11/8030 (May 24, 1990), pp. 60, 392-439, 464-516, 854-55;
110. Kords, pp. 205, 207.
111. Gerd Rosenkranz, "Alle reden vom Treibhaus - und bauen dran," die tageszeitung, March 3, 1990.
112. Enquete Commission, pp. 464-568;
113. Bang, p. 103;
114. "Klimagau auf 2000 Seiten," die tageszeitung, October 6, 1990;
115. Watanabe, p. 146.
116. Beuermann, p. 101;
117. Monika Ganseforth, "Politische Umsetzung der Empfehlungen der beiden Klima-Enquete-Kommissionen des Deutschen Bundestages (1987-1994)," in Hans Günther Brauch, ed., Klimapolitik (Berlin: Springer, 1996), pp. 215-24, at p. 219.
118. Bang, pp. 106-10.
119. Thomas Baylis, "Transforming the East German Economy," in Michael Huelshoff, Andrei Markovits, and Simon Reich, eds., From Bundesrepublik to Deutschland (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1993), pp. 77-92, at pp. 83-89;
120. Eric Owen Smith, The German Economy (New York: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1994), pp. 478-99.
121. Watanabe and Mez, p. 115 and n. 11.
122. Edda Müller, "Differences in Climate Change Policies in Germany and the United States from a Political Science Perspective," Energy and Environment, 9 (1998): 463-77, at pp. 464-65.
123. Data from Statistische Ämter der Länder, Umweltó konomische Gesamtrechnungen der Länder (Düsseldorf: Landesamt für Datenverarbeitung und Statistik Nordrhein-Westfalen), October 2008, Table 8.4.
124. Michaelowa, "Germany," p. 38.
125. Umweltbundesamt, Data on the Environment, 38;
126. Mischa Bechberger and Danyel Reiche, "Renewable Energy Policy in Germany," Energy for Sustainable Development, 8 (March 2004): 47-57, at p. 52.
127. BMU, pp. 12-13.
128. REN21, Renewables 2011 Global Status Report (Paris: REN21 Secretariat), 2011, p. 15.
129. Calculated from data in BMU, pp. 12, 16, 20, 22.
130. Bechberger, pp. 4-5.
131. Lauber and Mez, p. 106.
132. Staffan Jacobsson and Volkmar Lauber, "The Politics and Policy of Energy System Transformation," Energy Policy, 34 (February 2006): 256-76, at p. 265;
133. Michaelowa, "German Climate Policy," p. 195;
134. Watanabe, pp. 151-52, 160, 166, 179, 184.
135. Jänicke, "Trend Setters," p. 138;
136. Helmut Weidner, "Environmental Policy and Politics in Germany," in Uday Desai, ed., Environmental Politics and Policy in Industrialized Countries (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2002), pp. 149-202, at p. 182.
137. Bechberger and Reiche, p. 50.
138. Jacobsson and Lauber, p. 267.
139. Müller, pp. 472-73;
140. Watanabe, pp. 157-58, 161.
141. Bailey, Ian, "'Voluntary' Environmental Agreements and Climate Policy," Paper presented at the Corporate Responsibility Research Conference, Dublin, September 3-5, 2006, p. 7;
142. Watanabe, p. 172.
143. Heinrich Pehle, "Germany," in Mikael Andersen and Duncan Liefferink, eds., European Environmental Policy (New York: Manchester University Press, 1997), pp. 161-209, at pp. 187-88.
144. Kelly, p. 163;
145. Michaelowa, "Germany," p. 5;
146. Watanabe and Mez, p. 116;
147. Susanne Rupp and Ian Bailey, "German Climate Change Policy Report," Internal Report, ESRC project Climate Change and Industry Reactions to New Environmental Policy Instruments, University of Plymouth, August 2003, 22-23;
148. Hatch, "Voluntary Agreements," pp. 106, 112.
149. Weidner and Mez, p. 366.
150. Hatch, "Europeanization," p. 14;
151. Bang, p. 229.
152. Bailey, p. 7;
153. Hatch, "Voluntary Agreements," p. 105.
154. Steffen Hentrich, Patrick Matschoss, and Peter Michaelis, "Emissions Trading and Competitiveness," Climate Policy, 9 (May 2009): 316-29, at pp. 317, 324;
155. Steffen Brunner, "Understanding Policy Change," Global Environmental Change, 18 (August 2008): 501-07, at p. 502;
156. Michaelowa, "Germany," p. 37.
157. Watanabe and Mez, pp. 122-23.
158. Hatch, "Voluntary Agreements," p. 104.
159. Bang, p. 230.
160. Hatch, "Europeanization," pp. 18-19;
161. Watanabe and Mez, p. 122;
162. Michaelowa, "Germany," pp. 34-35.
163. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, "Environmental Expenditure and Taxes," ch. 14 in OECD, Environmental Data Compendium, 2006-2007 (Paris: idem., 2007), p. 15.
164. Another, minor factor was the 3 percent rise in population, mostly due to immigration, spurred by the opening of borders after 1989. In addition, increased international trade helped increase emissions in certain ways, e.g., in the increase in road freight transportation noted below and in the decline of cogeneration due to competitive pressures produced by the EU-driven liberalization of electricity markets in 1997. In the latter case, heat generated by cogeneration plants fell by 19 percent from 1996 to 2000; from: Arbeitsgemeinschaft für Wärme und Heizkraftwirtschaft, Arbeitsbericht 2003 (Frankfurt: idem., 2003), 5;
165. Branchenreport 2006 (Frankfurt: idem., 2006), p. 7;
166. Michaelowa, "Germany," p. 37.
167. Ziesing, "Kräftiger Anstieg," Figure 3.
168. Data are for 1991-2003 and 1991-2007, respectively; from: Umweltbundesamt, Data; BVBS [Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau und Stadtentwicklung], Verkehr in Zahlen 2008/2009 (Hamburg: DVV Media Group, 2008), pp. 212-13.
169. European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, EU Economic Report (Brussels: idem., July 2011), p. 20.
170. Over the 1991-2005 period; from Umweltbundesamt, Environmental Data for Germany, 2007 ed. (Berlin: idem., n.d. [2007]), p. 22.
171. The former over the 1991-2007 period and the latter over the 1991-2005 period; from: BVBS, pp. 236-37;
172. Umweltbundesamt, Environmental Data, p. 23.
173. Jahn, "Politics of Climate Change," p. 23;
174. Sachverständigenrat für Umweltfragen, Umwelt und Strassenverkehr: Sondergutachten, June 2005, pp. 74-75;
175. BVBS, pp. 187, 189, 203; author's calculations based on 1990-2006 data.
176. Ziesing, "Kräftiger Anstieg," Table 4;
177. Umweltbundesamt, Environmental Data, p. 24; the latter number is for the 1991-2005 period.
178. Federal Republic of Germany, 4th National Communication, p. 134.
179. Over the 1990-2007 and 1990-2009 periods, respectively; from: Institut für Städtebau, Wohnungswirtschaft und Bausparwesen, "Pro-Kopf-Wohnfläche weiter gestiegen - Saarland mit 48 Quadratmetern weiterhin Spitze," Hausbau Information, 2008, No. 16 (6 October 2008), 2;
180. Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie, Energie in Deutschland (Berlin: idem., August 2010), p. 23.
181. Sachverständigenrat für Umweltfragen, "Kontinuität in der Klimapolitik," September 2005, p. 12.
182. Sachverständigenrat für Umweltfragen, Umweltgutachten 2008, p. 125;
183. Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen, "Auswertungstabellen zur Energiebilanz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland: 1990 bis 2010," July 2011, Tables 4, 4.1, 4.2.1., 4.2.2.
184. Ziesing, "Milde Witterung," Table 4.
185. Wolfgang Eichhammer, et al., "Greenhouse Gas Reductions in Germany and the UK," Report prepared for the 6th Conference of the Parties (COP6), Bonn, July 16-17, 2001, pp. 27-28, 39.
186. Elim Papadakis, "Green Issues and Other Parties," in Eva Kolinsky, ed., The Greens in West Germany (New York: Berg, 1989), pp. 61-86;
187. Miranda Schreurs, "Domestic Institutions and International Environmental Agendas in Japan and Germany," in Schreurs and Elizabeth Economy, eds., The Internationalization of Environmental Protection (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997), pp. 134-61, at p. 153;
188. Weidner, "Environmental Policy," p. 154.
189. Watanabe and Mez, pp. 117-18, 124;
190. Hatch, "Europeanization," pp. 15-16.
191. Watanabe and Mez, pp. 121-22.
192. Scruggs, Sustaining Abundance, pp. 222-23; Bang, pp. 230-32.
193. Armingeon, p. 14.
194. Contra Crepaz, pp. 392-93.
195. Jost and Jacob, p. 15;
196. Watanabe, p. 170;
197. Frank Laird and Christoph Stepes, "The Diverging Paths of German and United States Policies for Renewable Energy," Energy Policy, 37 (2009): 2619-29, at p. 2627;
198. Bang, pp. 221, 227, 231-32;
199. Karl-Werner Brand, "Dialectics of Institutionalization," Environmental Politics, 8 (1999): 35-58, at pp. 51-52.
200. Laird and Stepes, p. 2627.
201. Deutscher Industrie und Handelskammertag, "Für einen Strategiewechsel in der Umweltpolitik," Position Paper, September 5, 2005;
202. Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie, "Mit Klimapolitik mehr Wertschópfung in Deutschland erzeugen," Position Paper, September 2005.
203. Michael Schmidt, "Aufstand der grünen Bosse," Der Tagesspiegel, September 9, 2005;
204. Gerd Rosenkranz, "Rauchzeichen aus der klimapolitischen Steinzeit," Background Paper, Deutsche Umwelthilfe, November 11, 2005.
205. McKinsey and Company, "Kosten und Potenziale der Vermeidung von Treibhausgasemissionen in Deutschland," September 2007, p. 14.
206. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, "Transport," in OECD, Environmental Data Compendium, 2006-2007 (Paris: idem., 2007), Tables 3B, 3C. For passenger cars, the only exception was Luxembourg; for road freight, Luxembourg, Portugal, and Canada were exceptions.
207. International Energy Agency data, accessed March 22, 2010, at http://www.iea.org/stats/pdf-graphs/25ELEC.pdf.
208. Author's analysis of data in UNFCCC, "National Greenhouse-Gas Inventory Data," p. 15. Six others had roughly plateaued (i.e., were within 5 percent of their 1990 emissions): Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Finland, Italy, Japan, and Switzerland.
209. Jahn, "Politics of Climate Change," p. 6.
210. Armingeon, pp. 9, 11.