Simulating climate change in UK cities using a regional climate model, HadRM3

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 32, Issue 12, 2012, Pages 1875-1888

  Mccarthy, M P ^a   Harpham, C ^b   Goodess, C M ^b   Jones, P D ^b  

^a MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Cities; Climate change; UK; Urban

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGES; ANTHROPOGENIC HEAT FLUX; CHANGING CLIMATE; CITIES; COST EFFECTIVE; ENERGY USE; FUTURE CLIMATE; HEAT ISLAND; HIGH TEMPERATURE; INDIRECT EFFECTS; LAND SURFACE; LOCAL FORCING; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS; SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS; TIME STEP; UK; URBAN; URBAN AREAS; URBAN CLIMATES; URBAN HEAT ISLAND; URBAN LAND USE; URBAN POPULATION;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; ENERGY UTILIZATION; HEAT FLUX;

GREENHOUSE GASES;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; GREENHOUSE GAS; HEAT FLUX; HEAT ISLAND; LAND SURFACE; REGIONAL CLIMATE; URBAN CLIMATE; URBANIZATION;

UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 84866905354     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.2402     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Allen L, Lindberg F, Grimmond CSB. 2011. Global to city scale urban anthropogenic heat flux: model and variability. International Journal of Climatology (online first), DOI: 10.1002/joc.2210.
2. Arnfield AJ. 2003. Two decades of urban climate research: A review of turbulence, exchanges of energy and water, and the urban heat island. International Journal of Climatology 23: 1-26.
3. Best MJ. 2005. Representing urban areas within operational numerical weather prediction models. Boundary-Layer Meteorology 114: 91-109.
4. Best MJ, Grimmond CSB, Villani MG. 2006. Evaluation of the urban tile in MOSES using surface energy balance observations. Boundary-Layer Meteorology 118: 503-525.
5. Block A, Keuler K, Schaller E. 2004. Impacts of anthropogenic heat on regional climate patterns. Geophysical Research Letters 31:DOI: 10.1029/2004GL019852.
6. Collins M, Booth BBB, Harris G, Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Webb M. 2006. Towards Quantifying Uncertainty in Transient Climate Change. Climate Dynamics 27: 127-147.
7. Cox PM, Betts RA, Bunton CB, Essery RLH, Rowntree PR, Smith J. 1999. The impact of new land surface physics on the GCM simulation of climate and climate sensitivity. Climate Dynamics 15: 183-203.
8. Danko DM. 1992. The Digital Chart of the World. GeoInfo Systems 2: 29-36.
9. Essery RLH, Best MJ, Betts RA, Cox PM, Taylor CM. 2003. Explicit representation of subgrid heterogeneity in a GCM land-surface scheme. Journal of Hydrometeorology 4: 530-543.
10. Flanner MG. 2009. Integrating anthropogenic heat flux with global climate models. Geophysical Research Letters 36: L02801, DOI: 10.1029/2008GL036465.
11. Fujibe F. 2009. Detection of urban warming in recent temperature trends in Japan. International Journal of Climatology DOI: 10.1002/joc.1822.
12. Gedzelmann SD, Austin S, Cermak R, Stefano N, Partridge S, Quesenberry S, Robinson DA. 2003. Mesoscale aspects of the Urban Heat Island around New York City. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 75: 29-42.
13. Gordon C, Cooper C, Senior CA, Banks H, Gregory JM, Johns TC, Mitchell JFB, Wood RA. 2000. The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dynamics 16: 147-168.
14. 2 Inventory (LECI) 2003. Greater London Authority: London.
15. Grimmond S. 2007. Urbanization and global environmental change: local effects of urban warming. Geographical Journal 173: 83-88.
16. Grimmond S, Blackett M, Best MJ, Barlow J, Baik J-J, Belcher SE, Bohnenstengel SI, Calmet I, Chen F, Dandou A, Fortuniak K, Gouvea ML, Hamdi R, Hendry M, Kawai T, Kawamoto Y, Kondo H, Krayenhoff ES, Lee S-H, Loridan T, Martilli A, Masson V, Miao S, Oleson K, Pigeon G, Porson A, Ryu Y-H, Salamanca F, Shashua-Bar L, Steeneveld G-J, Tombrou M, Voogt J, Young D, Zhang N. 2010. The International Urban Energy Balance Models Comparison Project: First results from Phase 1. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 49:DOI: 10.1175/2010JAMC2354.1.
17. Hamilton IG, Davies M, Steadman P, Stone A, Ridley I, Evans S. 2009. The significance of the anthropogenic heat emissions of London's buildings: A comparison against captured shortwave solar radiation. Building and Environment 44(4): 807-817, DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2008.05.024.
18. Harman IN, Best MJ, Belcher SE. 2004. Radiative exchange in an urban street canyon. Boundary-Layer Meteorology 110: 301-316.
19. Howard L. 1833. The climate of London, deduced from meteorological observations made in the metropolis and at various places around it. Harvey and Darton J, London. Available at http://urban-climate.com/wp3/resources/classic-texts.
20. Hua LJ, Ma ZG, Guo W. 2007. The impact of urbanization on air temperature across China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology DOI: 10.1007/s00704-007-0339-8.
21. Hulme M, Jenkins GJ, Lu X, Turnpenny JR, Mitchell TD, Jones RG, Lowe J, Murphy JM, Hassell D, Boorman P, McDonald R, Hill S. 2002. Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.
22. Ichinose T, Shimodozono K, Hanaki K. 1999. Impact of anthropogenic heat on urban climate in Tokyo. Atmospheric Environment 33: 3897-3909.
23. Jones PD, Hulme M, Briffa KR. 1993. A comparison of Lamb circulation types with an objective classification scheme. International Journal of Climatology 13: 655-663.
24. Jones PD, Lister DH. 2009. The Urban Heat Island in Central London and urban-related warming trends in Central London since 1900. Weather 64(12): 323-327.
25. Jones PD, Lister DH, Li Q. 2008. Urbanization effects in large-scale temperature records, with an emphasis on China. Journal of Geophysical Research 113: D16122, DOI: 10.1029/2008JD009916.
26. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Jenne R, Joseph D. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77: 437-470.
27. Karl TR, Diaz HF, Kukla G. 1988. Urbanization: its detection and effect in the United States climate record. Journal of Climatology 1: 1099-1123, DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442.
28. Kassomenos PA, Katsoulis BD. 2006. Mesoscale and macroscale aspects of the morning urban heat island arounds Athens, Greece. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 94: 209-218.
29. Klysik K, Fortuniak K. 1999. Temporal and spatial characteristics of the urban heat island of Lodz, Poland. Atmospheric Environment 33: 3885-3895.
30. Kusaka H, Kondo H, Kikegawa Y, Kimura F. 2001. A simple single-layer urban canopy model for atmospheric models: Comparison with multi-layer and slab models. Boundary-Layer Meteorology 101: 329-358.
31. Land Cover Map. 1990. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, http://www.ceh.ac.uk/data/LandCoverMap1990.html.
32. Lo JCF, Lau AKH, Chen F, Fung JCH, Leung KKM. 2007. Urban modification in a mesoscale model and the effects on the local circulation in the Pearl river delta region. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 46: 457-476.
33. Loveland TR, Reed BC, Brown JF, Ohlen O, Zhu Z, Yang L, Merchant JW. 2000. Development of a global land cover characteristics database and IGBP DISCover from 1 km AVHRR data. International Journal of Remote Sensing 21: 1303-1330.
34. Masson V. 2000. A physically-based scheme for the urban energy budget in atmospheric models. Boundary-Layer Meteorology 94: 357-397.
35. McCarthy MP, Best MJ, Betts RA. 2010. Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects. Geophysical Research Letters 37: L09705, DOI: 10.1029/2010GL042845.
36. Moreno-Garcia MC. 1994. Intensity and form of the urban heat island in Barcelona. International Journal of Climatology 14: 705-710.
37. Morris CJG, Simmonds I. 2000. Associations between varying magnitudes of the urban heat island and the synoptic climatology in Melbourne, Australia. International Journal of Climatology 20: 1931-1954.
38. Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Jenkins GJ, Booth BBB, Brown CC, Clark RT, Collins M, Harris GR, Kendon EJ, Betts RA, Brown SJ, Humphrey KA, McCarthy MP, McDonald RE, Stephens A, Wallace C, Warren R, Wilby R, Wood RA. 2009. UK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate change projections. Met Office Hadley Centre: Exeter, UK.
39. Nakićenović N, Swart R. 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA; 599.
40. Oleson KW, Bonan GB, Feddema J, Vertenstein M, Grimmond CSB. 2008. An urban parameterization for a global climate model. Part I: Formulation and evaluation for two cities. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 47: 1038-1060.
41. Parker DE. 2006. A demonstration that large-scale warming is not urban. Journal of Climate 19: 2882-2895, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3730.1.
42. Parker DE. 2010. Urban heat island effects on estimates of observed climate change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change DOI: 10.1002/wcc.21.
43. Perry M, Hollis D. 2005. The development of a new set of long-term climate averages for the UK. International Journal of Climatology 25: 1023-1039.
44. Peterson TC. 2003. Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: no difference found. Journal of Climate 16: 2941-2959.
45. Pielke Sr RA, Walko RL, Steyaert LT, Vidale PL, Liston GE, Lyons WA, Chase TN. 1999. The influence of anthropogenic landscape changes on weather in South Florida. Monthly Weather Review 127: 1633-1673.
46. Pigeon G, Legain D, Durand P, Masson V. 2007. Anthropogenic heat release in an old European agglomeration (Toulouse, France). International Journal of Climatology 27: 1969-1981.
47. Pope VD, Gallani ML, Rowntree PR, Stratton RA. 2000. The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model-HadAM3. Climate Dynamics 16: 123-146.
48. Porson A, Harman IN, Bohnenstengel SI, Belcher SE. 2009. How many facets are needed to represent the surface energy balance of an urban area? Boundary-Layer Meteorology 132: 107-128.
49. Rosenzweig C, Solecki WD, Parshall L, Lynn B, Cox J, Goldberg R, Hodges S, Gaffin S, Slosberg RB, Savio P, Dunstan F, Watson M. 2009. Mitigating New York City's Heat Island, Integrating stakeholder perspectives and scientific evaluation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90: 1297-1312.
50. Sailor D. 2011. A review of methods for estimating anthropogenic heat and moisture emissions in the urban environment. International Journal of Climatology 31:DOI: 10.1002/joc.2106.
51. Sailor DJ, Lu L. 2004. A top-down methodology for developing diurnal and seasonal anthropogenic heating profiles for urban areas. Atmospheric Environment 38: 2737-2748.
52. Smith C, Lindley S, Levermore G. 2009. Estimating spatial and temporal patterns of urban anthropogenic heat fluxes for UK cities: the case of Manchester. Theoretical and Applied Climatology DOI: 10.1007/s00704-008-0086-5.
53. Stone B. 2007. Urban and rural temperature trends in proximity to large US cities: 1951-2000. International Journal of Climatology 27: 1801-1807, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1555.
54. Trusilova K, Jung M, Churkina G, Karstens U, Heimann M, Claussen M. 2008. Urbanization impacts on the climate in Europe: Numerical experiments by the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 47: 1442-1455.
55. Wilby RL. 2008. Constructing climate change scenarios of urban heat island intensity and air quality. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 35: 902-911.
56. Wilby RL, Jones PD, Lister DH. 2011. Decadal variations in the nocturnal heat island of London. Weather 66:DOI: 10.1002/wea.679.
57. Wilson MF, Henderson-Sellers A. 1985. A global archive of land cover and soils data for use in general circulation climate models. Journal of Climatology 5: 119-143.