-
1
-
-
75149140917
-
A route to more tractable expert advice
-
Aspinall W.P. A route to more tractable expert advice. Nature 2010, 463:294-295.
-
(2010)
Nature
, vol.463
, pp. 294-295
-
-
Aspinall, W.P.1
-
2
-
-
33646365340
-
Using hidden multi-state Markov models with multi-parameter volcanic data to provide empirical evidence for alert level decision-support
-
Aspinall W., Carniel R., et al. Using hidden multi-state Markov models with multi-parameter volcanic data to provide empirical evidence for alert level decision-support. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 2006, 153:112-124.
-
(2006)
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
, vol.153
, pp. 112-124
-
-
Aspinall, W.1
Carniel, R.2
-
3
-
-
57149104808
-
Structured elicitation of expert judgement for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions
-
Geological Society of London, London, S.C.H.M. Mader, C. Connor, L. Connor (Eds.)
-
Aspinall W.P. Structured elicitation of expert judgement for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. Statistics in Volcanology 2006, 1:15-30. Geological Society of London, London. S.C.H.M. Mader, C. Connor, L. Connor (Eds.).
-
(2006)
Statistics in Volcanology
, vol.1
, pp. 15-30
-
-
Aspinall, W.P.1
-
4
-
-
80052865858
-
The Montserrat Volcano Observatory: its evolution, organization, role and activities
-
Aspinall W.P., Loughlin S.C., et al. The Montserrat Volcano Observatory: its evolution, organization, role and activities. Geological Society, London, Memoirs 2002, 21(1):71-91.
-
(2002)
Geological Society, London, Memoirs
, vol.21
, Issue.1
, pp. 71-91
-
-
Aspinall, W.P.1
Loughlin, S.C.2
-
7
-
-
57149099571
-
Emergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: a new evidence-based approach
-
Baxter P.J., Aspinall W.P., et al. Emergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: a new evidence-based approach. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 2008, 178(3):454.
-
(2008)
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
, vol.178
, Issue.3
, pp. 454
-
-
Baxter, P.J.1
Aspinall, W.P.2
-
8
-
-
0037638790
-
Uncertainty about the uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis
-
Bommer J. Uncertainty about the uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis. Engineering Geology 2003, 70:165-168.
-
(2003)
Engineering Geology
, vol.70
, pp. 165-168
-
-
Bommer, J.1
-
10
-
-
84894846745
-
Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: guidance on uncertainty and the use of experts
-
Budnitz J., et al. Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: guidance on uncertainty and the use of experts. SSHAC Report for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission 1997.
-
(1997)
SSHAC Report for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission
-
-
Budnitz, J.1
-
13
-
-
2642553887
-
The anatomy of the squizzel: the role of operational definitions in representing uncertainty
-
Cooke R.M. The anatomy of the squizzel: the role of operational definitions in representing uncertainty. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2004, 85:313-319.
-
(2004)
Reliability Engineering and System Safety
, vol.85
, pp. 313-319
-
-
Cooke, R.M.1
-
15
-
-
45349096968
-
Is probability the only coherent approach to uncertainty?
-
Corvalyn M. Is probability the only coherent approach to uncertainty?. Risk Analysis 2008, 28(3):645-652.
-
(2008)
Risk Analysis
, vol.28
, Issue.3
, pp. 645-652
-
-
Corvalyn, M.1
-
16
-
-
0028942319
-
Evidence based medicine
-
Davidoff F., Haynes B., et al. Evidence based medicine. BMJ 1995, 310(6987):1085-1086.
-
(1995)
BMJ
, vol.310
, Issue.6987
, pp. 1085-1086
-
-
Davidoff, F.1
Haynes, B.2
-
18
-
-
84864389606
-
Reply to comment from W.P. Aspinall on "Social studies of volcanology: knowledge generation and expert advice on active volcanoes" by Amy Donovan, Clive Oppenheimer and Michael Bravo [Bull Volcanol (2012) 74:677-689]
-
Donovan A., Oppenheimer C., Bravo M. Reply to comment from W.P. Aspinall on "Social studies of volcanology: knowledge generation and expert advice on active volcanoes" by Amy Donovan, Clive Oppenheimer and Michael Bravo [Bull Volcanol (2012) 74:677-689]. Bulletin of Volcanology 2012, 74(6):1571-1574.
-
(2012)
Bulletin of Volcanology
, vol.74
, Issue.6
, pp. 1571-1574
-
-
Donovan, A.1
Oppenheimer, C.2
Bravo, M.3
-
19
-
-
84862632670
-
Science at the policy interface: volcano-monitoring technologies and volcanic hazard management
-
Donovan A., Oppenheimer C., Bravo M. Science at the policy interface: volcano-monitoring technologies and volcanic hazard management. Bulletin of Volcanology 2012, 74(5):1005-1022.
-
(2012)
Bulletin of Volcanology
, vol.74
, Issue.5
, pp. 1005-1022
-
-
Donovan, A.1
Oppenheimer, C.2
Bravo, M.3
-
20
-
-
84858709076
-
Social studies of volcanology: knowledge generation and expert advice on active volcanoes
-
Donovan A., Oppenheimer C., Bravo M. Social studies of volcanology: knowledge generation and expert advice on active volcanoes. Bulletin of Volcanology 2012, 74(3):677-689.
-
(2012)
Bulletin of Volcanology
, vol.74
, Issue.3
, pp. 677-689
-
-
Donovan, A.1
Oppenheimer, C.2
Bravo, M.3
-
21
-
-
84979166733
-
Earthquakes and volcanoes: risk from geophysical hazards
-
Springer, S. Roeser, P. Sandin, R. Hillerbrand (Eds.)
-
Donovan A.R. Earthquakes and volcanoes: risk from geophysical hazards. The Handbook of Risk Theory 2012, Springer. S. Roeser, P. Sandin, R. Hillerbrand (Eds.).
-
(2012)
The Handbook of Risk Theory
-
-
Donovan, A.R.1
-
22
-
-
24144488027
-
-
Geological Society of London, London, T.H. Druitt, B.P. Kokelaar (Eds.)
-
The Eruption of the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999 2002, Geological Society of London, London. T.H. Druitt, B.P. Kokelaar (Eds.).
-
(2002)
The Eruption of the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999
-
-
-
23
-
-
0035044951
-
A model for degassing at the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies, based on geochemical data
-
Edmonds M., Pyle D., Oppenheimer C. A model for degassing at the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies, based on geochemical data. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 2001, 186(2):159.
-
(2001)
Earth and Planetary Science Letters
, vol.186
, Issue.2
, pp. 159
-
-
Edmonds, M.1
Pyle, D.2
Oppenheimer, C.3
-
25
-
-
58149179247
-
Helping doctors and patients make sense of health statistics
-
Gigerenzer G., Gaissmaier W., Kurz-Milcke E., Schwartz L.M., Woloshin S. Helping doctors and patients make sense of health statistics. Psychological Science in the Public Interest 2007, 8(2):53-96.
-
(2007)
Psychological Science in the Public Interest
, vol.8
, Issue.2
, pp. 53-96
-
-
Gigerenzer, G.1
Gaissmaier, W.2
Kurz-Milcke, E.3
Schwartz, L.M.4
Woloshin, S.5
-
26
-
-
23644440946
-
'A 30% chance of rain tomorrow': how does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts?
-
Gigerenzer G., Hertwig R., et al. 'A 30% chance of rain tomorrow': how does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts?. Risk Analysis 2005, 25(3):623-629.
-
(2005)
Risk Analysis
, vol.25
, Issue.3
, pp. 623-629
-
-
Gigerenzer, G.1
Hertwig, R.2
-
28
-
-
33646112631
-
On evidence and evidence-based medicine: lessons from the philosophy of science
-
Goldenberg M.J. On evidence and evidence-based medicine: lessons from the philosophy of science. Social Science & Medicine 2006, 62:2621-2632.
-
(2006)
Social Science & Medicine
, vol.62
, pp. 2621-2632
-
-
Goldenberg, M.J.1
-
29
-
-
38849173171
-
Fifteen years of expert judgement at TUDelft
-
Goosens L.H.J., Cooke R.M., et al. Fifteen years of expert judgement at TUDelft. Safety Science 2008, 46:234-244.
-
(2008)
Safety Science
, vol.46
, pp. 234-244
-
-
Goosens, L.H.J.1
Cooke, R.M.2
-
31
-
-
0004277776
-
-
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
-
Hacking I. The Taming of Chance 1990, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
-
(1990)
The Taming of Chance
-
-
Hacking, I.1
-
34
-
-
84894758267
-
Bayesian statistics and Popper's epistemology
-
Hammerton M. Bayesian statistics and Popper's epistemology. Mind 1968, 21:109-112.
-
(1968)
Mind
, vol.21
, pp. 109-112
-
-
Hammerton, M.1
-
37
-
-
84869509011
-
Probabilistic volcano hazard and risk assessment, University of Bristol
-
Unpublished PhD thesis.
-
Hincks, T. (2005). Probabilistic volcano hazard and risk assessment, University of Bristol. Unpublished PhD thesis.
-
(2005)
-
-
Hincks, T.1
-
39
-
-
0032837725
-
The songlines of risk
-
Jasanoff S. The songlines of risk. Environmental Values 1999, 8:135-152.
-
(1999)
Environmental Values
, vol.8
, pp. 135-152
-
-
Jasanoff, S.1
-
42
-
-
75149181375
-
Fixing the communications failure
-
Kahan D. Fixing the communications failure. Nature 2010, 463(7279):296.
-
(2010)
Nature
, vol.463
, Issue.7279
, pp. 296
-
-
Kahan, D.1
-
43
-
-
59849101074
-
Cultural cognition of the risks and benefits of nanotechnology
-
Kahan D.M., Braman D., et al. Cultural cognition of the risks and benefits of nanotechnology. Nature nanotechnology 2009, 4(2):87.
-
(2009)
Nature nanotechnology
, vol.4
, Issue.2
, pp. 87
-
-
Kahan, D.M.1
Braman, D.2
-
45
-
-
77952876482
-
Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise 'Ruaumoko'
-
Lindsay J., et al. Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise 'Ruaumoko'. Bulletin of Volcanology 2010, 72(2):185-204.
-
(2010)
Bulletin of Volcanology
, vol.72
, Issue.2
, pp. 185-204
-
-
Lindsay, J.1
-
46
-
-
77952177676
-
An overview of lava dome evolution, dome collapse and cyclicity at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, 2005-2007
-
Loughlin S.C., Luckett R., et al. An overview of lava dome evolution, dome collapse and cyclicity at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, 2005-2007. Geophysical Research Letters 2010, 37:L00E16.
-
(2010)
Geophysical Research Letters
, vol.37
-
-
Loughlin, S.C.1
Luckett, R.2
-
47
-
-
84869504668
-
-
Geological Society, London, H.M. Mader, S. Coles, C. Connor, L. Connor (Eds.)
-
Statistics in Volcanology. Special Publications of IAVCEI, vol. 1 2006, Geological Society, London. H.M. Mader, S. Coles, C. Connor, L. Connor (Eds.).
-
(2006)
Statistics in Volcanology. Special Publications of IAVCEI, vol. 1
-
-
-
48
-
-
79955872576
-
Earthquake forecasting and earthquake prediction: different approaches for obtaining the best model
-
Marzocchi W., Zechar J.D. Earthquake forecasting and earthquake prediction: different approaches for obtaining the best model. Seismological Research Letters 2011, 82(3):442-448.
-
(2011)
Seismological Research Letters
, vol.82
, Issue.3
, pp. 442-448
-
-
Marzocchi, W.1
Zechar, J.D.2
-
49
-
-
39749199226
-
BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting
-
Marzocchi W., Sandri L., Selva J. BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting. Bulletin of Volcanology 2008, 70(5):623-632.
-
(2008)
Bulletin of Volcanology
, vol.70
, Issue.5
, pp. 623-632
-
-
Marzocchi, W.1
Sandri, L.2
Selva, J.3
-
50
-
-
14344250826
-
Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: the example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius
-
Marzocchi W., Sandri L., et al. Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: the example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius. Journal of Geophysical Research 2004, 109.
-
(2004)
Journal of Geophysical Research
, vol.109
-
-
Marzocchi, W.1
Sandri, L.2
-
51
-
-
84866498197
-
Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales
-
Marzocchi W., Bebbington M. Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales. Bulletin of Volcanology 2012, 1-29.
-
(2012)
Bulletin of Volcanology
, pp. 1-29
-
-
Marzocchi, W.1
Bebbington, M.2
-
55
-
-
0034005869
-
Remobilisation of andesite magma by intrusion of mafic magma at the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies
-
Murphy M.D., Sparks R.S.J., Barclay J., Carroll M.R., Brewer T.S. Remobilisation of andesite magma by intrusion of mafic magma at the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies. Journal of Petrology 2000, 41(1):21-42.
-
(2000)
Journal of Petrology
, vol.41
, Issue.1
, pp. 21-42
-
-
Murphy, M.D.1
Sparks, R.S.J.2
Barclay, J.3
Carroll, M.R.4
Brewer, T.S.5
-
56
-
-
57149093801
-
Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius
-
Neri A., Aspinall W.P., et al. Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 2008, 178(3):397.
-
(2008)
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
, vol.178
, Issue.3
, pp. 397
-
-
Neri, A.1
Aspinall, W.P.2
-
60
-
-
57049089996
-
-
Stanford, Stanford University Press, R.N. Proctor, L. Schiebinger (Eds.)
-
Agnotology: The Making and Unmaking of Ignorance 2008, Stanford, Stanford University Press. R.N. Proctor, L. Schiebinger (Eds.).
-
(2008)
Agnotology: The Making and Unmaking of Ignorance
-
-
-
61
-
-
33747115319
-
The role of emotions in judging the moral acceptability of risks
-
Roeser S. The role of emotions in judging the moral acceptability of risks. Safety Science 2006, 44(8):689.
-
(2006)
Safety Science
, vol.44
, Issue.8
, pp. 689
-
-
Roeser, S.1
-
63
-
-
0030027092
-
Evidence based medicine: what it is and what it isn't
-
Sackett D.L., Rosenberg W.M.C., et al. Evidence based medicine: what it is and what it isn't. BMJ 1996, 312(7023):71-72.
-
(1996)
BMJ
, vol.312
, Issue.7023
, pp. 71-72
-
-
Sackett, D.L.1
Rosenberg, W.M.C.2
-
64
-
-
84972376946
-
Astronomers mark time: discipline and the personal equation
-
Schaffer S. Astronomers mark time: discipline and the personal equation. Science in Context 1988, 2(01):115-145.
-
(1988)
Science in Context
, vol.2
, Issue.1
, pp. 115-145
-
-
Schaffer, S.1
-
65
-
-
84972629921
-
Pump and circumstance: Robert Boyle's literary technology
-
Shapin S. Pump and circumstance: Robert Boyle's literary technology. Social Studies of Science 1984, 14:481-520.
-
(1984)
Social Studies of Science
, vol.14
, pp. 481-520
-
-
Shapin, S.1
-
69
-
-
33744916371
-
Volcanic activity: frontiers and challenges in forecasting, prediction and risk assessment
-
(IUGG Volume 19), R.S.J. Sparks, W. Aspinall (Eds.) The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics
-
Volcanic activity: frontiers and challenges in forecasting, prediction and risk assessment. Geophysical Monograph 2004, 150. (IUGG Volume 19). R.S.J. Sparks, W. Aspinall (Eds.).
-
(2004)
Geophysical Monograph
, vol.150
-
-
-
71
-
-
82455175810
-
Don't know, can't know: embracing deeper uncertainties when analysing risks
-
Spiegelhalter D.J., Riesch H. Don't know, can't know: embracing deeper uncertainties when analysing risks. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 2011, 369(1956):4730-4750.
-
(2011)
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
, vol.369
, Issue.1956
, pp. 4730-4750
-
-
Spiegelhalter, D.J.1
Riesch, H.2
-
72
-
-
34547165887
-
Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions
-
Stainforth D.A., Allen M.R., et al. Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 2007, 365(1857):2145-2161.
-
(2007)
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
, vol.365
, Issue.1857
, pp. 2145-2161
-
-
Stainforth, D.A.1
Allen, M.R.2
-
74
-
-
34047101420
-
Risk, precaution and science: towards a more constructive policy debate
-
Stirling A. Risk, precaution and science: towards a more constructive policy debate. EMBO Reports 2007, 8(4):309-315.
-
(2007)
EMBO Reports
, vol.8
, Issue.4
, pp. 309-315
-
-
Stirling, A.1
-
79
-
-
10844286071
-
Uncertainty and environmental learning: reconceiving science and policy in the preventive paradigm
-
Wynne B. Uncertainty and environmental learning: reconceiving science and policy in the preventive paradigm. Global Environmental Change 1992, 2(2):111-127.
-
(1992)
Global Environmental Change
, vol.2
, Issue.2
, pp. 111-127
-
-
Wynne, B.1
-
81
-
-
79953025809
-
Neo-deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard assessments: a comparison over the Italian territory
-
Zuccolo E., Vaccari F., Peresan A., Panza G. Neo-deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard assessments: a comparison over the Italian territory. Pure and Applied Geophysics 2011, 168(1):69-83.
-
(2011)
Pure and Applied Geophysics
, vol.168
, Issue.1
, pp. 69-83
-
-
Zuccolo, E.1
Vaccari, F.2
Peresan, A.3
Panza, G.4
|