Evidence-based volcanology: Application to eruption crises

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

Volumn 128, Issue 1-3, 2003, Pages 273-285

  Aspinall, W P ^a   Woo, G ^b   Voight, B ^c   Baxter, P J ^d  

^a ASPINALL AND ASSOCIATES   (United Kingdom)

^b RISK MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS   (United Kingdom)

^c PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Bayes' Rule; Bayesian Belief Network; Decision support; Evidence Science; Expert judgment; Galeras volcano; Risk assessment; Volcanic eruption

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; EXPLOSIONS; RISKS; SEISMIC PROSPECTING;

VOLCANOLOGY;

VOLCANOES;

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; RISK PERCEPTION; VOLCANIC ERUPTION;

COLOMBIA; GALERAS VOLCANO;

EID: 0344037117     PISSN: 03770273     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0377-0273(03)00260-9     Document Type: Article

References (26)

1. Aitken, C.G.G., 1995. Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists. Wiley, Chichester, 276 pp.
2. Aspinall, W., Cooke, R.M., 1998. Expert judgment and the Montserrat Volcano eruption. In: Mosleh, A., Bari, R.A. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management PSAM4, September 13-18, 1998, New York. Springer, London, vol. 3, pp. 2113-2118.
3. Aspinall, W.P., Woo, G., 1994. An impartial decision-making procedure using expert judgment to assess volcanic hazards. In: 'Large Explosive Eruptions', Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei/British Council International Symposium, Rome, 24-25 May 1993. Atti dei convegni Lincei 112, pp. 211-220.
4. Balding D.DNA profiles and the courts R. Statist. Soc. News 24 1996 1-2
5. Bruce, V., 2001. No Apparent Danger. Harper Collins, New York, 239 pp.
6. Chouet B.A.Long-period volcano seismicity: Its source and use in eruption forecasting Nature 380 1996 309-316
7. Cortés G.P.Raigosa J.A synthesis of the recent activity of Galeras volcano, Colombia: Seven years of continuous surveillance, 1989-1995 J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 77 1997 101-114
8. Fiske, R.S., 1984. Volcanologists, journalists, and the public: A tale of two crises in the Eastern Caribbean. In: Explosive Volcanism: Inception, Evolution, and Hazards. Natl. Res. Council (US), Studies in Geophysics, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, pp. 170-176.
9. Gil Cruz F.Chouet B.A.Long-period events, the most characteristic seismicity accompanying the emplacement and extrusion of a lava dome in Galeras Volcano, Colombia, in 1991 J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 77 1997 121-158
10. Gómez D.M.Torres R.A.Unusual low-frequency volcanic seismic events with slowly decaying coda waves observed at Galeras and other volcanoes J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 77 1997 173-193
11. Jeffreys, H., 1961. Theory of Probability. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 459 pp.
12. Jensen, F.B., 1996. An Introduction to Bayesian Networks. Springer, New York, 178 pp.
13. Lindley, D.V., 1971. Making Decisions. Wiley, London, 207 pp.
14. Martinelli B.Volcanic tremor and short-term prediction of eruptions J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 77 1997 305-311
15. Monastersky, R., 2001. Under the volcano. Chronicle of Higher Education, March 30.
16. Narváez L., et al.'Tornillo'-type seismic signals at Galeras volcano, Colombia, 1992-1993 J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 77 1997 159-171
17. Newhall C.G.Hoblitt R.P.Constructing event trees for volcanic crises Bull. Volcanol. 64 2002 3-20
18. Robertson, B., Vignaux, G.A., 1995. Interpreting Evidence: Evaluating Forensic Science in the Courtroom. Wiley, Chichester, 240 pp.
19. Rose W.I.Volcanic irony - hard lessons from the dark side of volcanology (book reviews) Nature 411 2001 21-22
20. Sackett, D.L., Straus, S.E., Richardson, W.S., Rosenberg, W., Haynes, R.B., 2000. Evidence-based Medicine. Churchill Livingstone, London, 261 pp.
21. Stix, J., 1993. Report of trip to Galeras Volcano, 28 July-16 August 1992. Abs. 1993 Galeras International Decade Volcano Workshop, Pasto, Colombia.
22. Swanson, D.A., Holcomb, R.T., 1989. Regularities in growth of the Mount St Helens dacite dome, 1980-1986. In: Fink, J.H. (Ed.), IAVCEI Proceedings in Volcanology: Lava Flows and Domes, vol. 2, Springer, Berlin, pp. 1-24.
23. Voight B., et al.Remarkable cyclic ground deformation monitored in real time on Montserrat and its use in eruption forecasting Geophys. Res. Lett. 25 1998 3405-3408
24. Williams, S., 2001. Surviving Galeras. Little, Brown, London, 270 pp.
25. Wilson, R., Crouch, E.A.C., 2001. Risk-Benefit Analysis. Harvard University Press, 370 pp.
26. Woo, G., 1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London, 292 pp.