Never say "not": Impact of negative wording in probability phrases on imprecise probability judgments

International Journal of Approximate Reasoning

Volumn 53, Issue 8, 2012, Pages 1262-1270

  Smithson, Michael ^a   Budescu, David V ^b   Broomell, Stephen B ^c   Por, Han Hui ^b  

^a AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b FORDHAM UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Imprecise probability; Probability elicitation; Probability expression; Risk communication; Subjective probability

Indexed keywords

ADDITIVITY; COGNITIVE SCIENCE; CONJUGACY; CONTEXT-FREE; DELETERIOUS EFFECTS; EFFECTIVE TRANSLATION; EXPERIMENTAL CONDITIONS; IMPRECISE PROBABILITIES; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGES; LOWER AND UPPER PROBABILITIES; PROBABILITY EXPRESSIONS; REANALYSIS; REGRESSION MODEL; REGRESSION MODELLING; RISK COMMUNICATION; SIMILAR PATTERN; SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY;

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE; CLIMATE CHANGE; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS; ESTIMATION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RISK MANAGEMENT;

PROBABILITY;

EID: 84866041688     PISSN: 0888613X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijar.2012.06.019     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (13)

1. D.V. Budescu, S. Broomell, and H.-H. Por Improving the communication of uncertainty in the reports of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change Psychological Science 20 2009 299 308
2. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary for policymakers: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Retrieved May 2010 from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf (2007).
3. D.V. Budescu, T.M. Karelitz, and T.S. Wallsten Predicting the directionality of probability words from their membership functions Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 16 2003 159 180
4. K.H. Teigen, and W. Brun The directionality of verbal probability expressions: Effects on decisions, predictions, and probabilistic reasoning Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 80 1999 155 190
5. K.H. Teigen, and W. Brun Verbal expressions of uncertainty and probability D. Hardman, L. Macchi, Thinking: Psychological Perspectives on Reasoning, Judgment, and Decision Making 2003 Wiley Chichester 125 145
6. K.H. Teigen, and W. Brun Verbal probabilities: a question of frame? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 16 2003 53 72
7. T.S. Wallsten, D.V. Budescu, A. Rapoport, R. Zwick, and F.H. Forsyth Measuring the vague meanings of probability terms Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 115 1986 348 365
8. A. Zimmer, C. Schade, and H. Grundl Is default risk acceptable when purchasing insurance? experimental evidence for different probability representations, reasons for default and framings Journal of Economic Psychology 30 2009 11 23
9. M. Smithson, and J. Verkuilen A better lemon-squeezer? Maximum likelihood regression with beta-distributed dependent variables Psychological Methods 11 2006 54 71
10. J. Verkuilen, and M. Smithson Mixed and mixture regression models for continuous bounded responses using the beta distribution Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics 37 2012 82 113
11. M. Smithson, Edgar C. Merkle, and J. Verkuilen Beta regression finite mixture models of polarization and priming Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics 36 2011 804 831
12. A. Kunda The case for motivated reasoning Psychological Bulletin 180 1990 480 498
13. D.V. Budescu, H.-H. Por, and S. Broomell Effective communication of uncertainty in the IPCC reports Climatic Change 113 2012 181 200