Combining choice modelling and multi-criteria analysis for technology diffusion: An application to the uptake of electric vehicles

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 79, Issue 8, 2012, Pages 1399-1412

  Higgins, Andrew ^a   Paevere, Phillip ^a   Gardner, John ^a   Quezada, George ^a  

^a CSIRO   (Australia)

Author keywords

Choice model; Electric vehicle; Multi criteria analysis

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL CHANGE; CHOICE MODEL; CHOICE MODELLING; DIFFUSION MODEL; DRIVING DISTANCE; ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS; EMPLOYMENT STATUS; FOCUS GROUPS; HOUSEHOLD INCOME; MARKET SHARE; MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS; POLICY OPTIONS; RESIDENTIAL SECTORS; SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS; TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION; TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS; URBAN AREAS; VICTORIA , AUSTRALIA;

COMPETITION; ELASTICITY; ELECTRIC UTILITIES; ELECTRIC VEHICLES; GAS EMISSIONS; GREENHOUSE GASES; TECHNOLOGY;

INNOVATION;

DEMAND ELASTICITY; DISCRETE CHOICE ANALYSIS; ELECTRIC VEHICLE; MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS; REGIONAL PATTERN; TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION; TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION;

AUSTRALIA; VICTORIA [AUSTRALIA];

EID: 84866014465     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.008     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. AECOM Forecast uptake and economic evaluation of electric vehicles in Victoria. Report 60149263 submitted to the Victorian department of Transport 2010.
2. Axsen J., Mountain D.C., Jaccard M. Combining stated and revealed choice research to simulate the neighbour effect: the case of hybrid-electric vehicles. Resour. Energy Econ. 2009, 31:221-238.
3. Bass F.M. A new product growth model for consumer durables. Manage. Sci. 1969, 15(5):215-217.
4. Bass F.M., Krishnan T.V., Jain D.C. Why the Bass model fits without decision variables. Mark. Sci. 1994, 13:203-273.
5. Bhat C.R., Guo J.Y. A mixed spatially correlated logit model: formulation and application to residential choice modeling. Transp. Res. A 2004, 38:147-168.
6. Brans J.P., Vincke P., Marshal B. How to select and how to rank projects: the PROMETHEE method. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 1986, 24:228-238.
7. Demirag O.C., Baysar O., Keskinocak P., Swann J. The effects of customer rebates and retailer incentives on a manufacturer's profits and sales. Nav. Res. Logist. 2010, 57:88-108.
8. Eggers F., Eggers F. Where have all the flowers gone? Forecasting green trends in the automobile industry with a choice-based conjoint adoption model. Technol. Forecasting Soc. Change 2011, 78:51-62.
9. Emmanouilides C., Davies R. Modelling and estimation of social interaction effects in new product diffusion. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 2007, 177:1253-1274.
10. EPRI Transportation Electrification-A Technology Overview 2011, Electric Power Research Institute, [Report 1021334, www.epri.com].
11. Gardner J., Ashworth P. Public Attitudes Towards Electricity Alternatives: Results from a Survey of Australian Households, Report No. P2008/944 2007, CSIRO, Canberra, Australia.
12. Gardner J., Ashworth P. Towards the intelligent grid: a review of the literature. Urban Energy Transitions: From Fossil Fuels to Renewable Power 2008, 283-308. Elsevier, Oxford, UK. P. Droege (Ed.).
13. Gardner J., Quezada G., Paevere P. Social Study on Attitudes, Drivers and Barriers to the Uptake of Electric Vehicles. (An Electric Driveway Project Report) 2011, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation CSIRO, Australia.
14. Guidolin M., Mortarino C. Cross-country diffusion of photovoltaic systems: modelling choices and forecasts for national adoption patterns. Technol. Forecasting Soc. Change 2010, 77:279-296.
15. Graham P., Reedman L., Poldy F. Modelling of the future of transport fuels in Australia. A report IR1046 to the Future Fuels Forum 2008, [www.csiro.au].
16. Greene A.L., Patterson P.D., Sing M., Li J. Feebates, rebates and gas-guzzler taxes: a study of incentives for increased fuel economy. Energy Policy 2005, 33:757-775.
17. Higgins A., Foliente G., McNamara C. Modelling intervention options to reduce GHG emissions in housing stock-a diffusion approach. Technol. Forecasting Soc. Change 2011, 78:621-634.
18. Horne M., Jaccard M., Tiedemann K. Improving behavioural realism in hybrid-economy models using discrete choice studies in personalised transportation decisions. Energy Econ. 2005, 27:59-77.
19. Horksy D. A diffusion model for incorporating product benefits, price, income and information. Mark. Sci. 1990, 9(4):342-364.
20. Howard A.F. A critical look at multiple criteria decision making techniques with reference to forestry applications. Can. J. For. Res. 1991, 21:1649-1659.
21. Kemp R., Volpi M. The diffusion of clean technology: a review with suggestions for future diffusion analysis. J. Cleaner Prod. 2008, 16(S1):S14-S21.
22. Jaccard M., Dennis M. Estimating home energy decision parameters for a hybrid energy-economy policy model. Environ. Model. Assess. 2006, 11:91-100.
23. Jager W. Stimulating the diffusion of photovoltaic systems: a behavioural perspective. Energy Policy 2006, 34:1935-1943.
24. Jun D.B., Park Y.S. A choice-based diffusion model for multi-generations of products. Technol. Forecasting Soc. Change 1999, 61:45-58.
25. Jun D.B., Kim J. A choice-based multi-product diffusion model incorporating replacement demand. Technol. Forecasting Soc. Change 2011, 78:674-689.
26. Kim W., Lee J., Kim T. Demand forecasting for multigenerational products combining discrete choice and dynamics of diffusion under technological trajectories. Technol. Forecasting Soc. Change 2005, 72:825-849.
27. Line Z., Greene D. Who will more likely buy PHEV: a detailed market segmentation analysis. The 25th World Battery, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Symposium & Exhibition, Shenzhen, China 2010.
28. Lobel R., Perakis G. Consumer choice model for forecasting demand and designing incentives for solar technology. Soc. Sci. Res. Netw. 2011.
29. Mansfield E. Technical change and the rate of imitation. Econometrica 1961, 29:741-776. [(Oct.)].
30. Murphy R., Rivers N., Jaccard M. Hybrid modelling of industrial energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions with an application to Canada. Energy Econ. 2007, 29:826-846.
31. P. Paevere, A. Higgins, G. Grozev, Z. Ren and M. Horn, Electric vehicles and the smart grid: spatial modelling of impacts and opportunities, EVS26 International Battery Hybrid and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Symposium, in press.
32. Pellon M.B., Eppstein M., Besaw L., Grover D., Rizzo D., Marshall J. An agent-based model for estimating consumer adoption of PHEV technology. Proceedings of the Transport Research Board 2010 Annual Meeting 2010.
33. Rao Usha K., Kishore V.V.N. A review of technology diffusion models with special reference to renewable energy technologies. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2010, 14:1070-1078.
34. Ren Z., Chen D., Wang X. Climate change adaptation for Australian residential buildings. Build. Environ. 2011, 46:2398-2412.
35. Rogers E.M. Diffusion of Innovations 1962, Glencoe: Free Press.
36. Scarpa R., Willis K. Willingness to pay for renewable energy: primary and discretionary choice of British households for micro-generation technologies. Energy Econ. 2010, 32:129-136.
37. Sener I., Pendyala R., Bhat C. Accommodating spatial correlation across choice alternatives in discrete choice models: application to modelling residential location choice behaviour. Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2009 Paper #09-2281 2009.
38. Soderholn P., Klassen G. Wind power in Europe: a simultaneous innovation-diffusion model. Environ. Resour. Econ. 2007, 36:163-190.
39. Squatriglia C. Nissan Turns Over an Electric Leaf [Autopia. Wired.com. Accessed 13 October 2010]. http://www.wired.com/autopia/2009/08/nissan-electric-leaf/.
40. Train K., McFadden D., Ben-Akiva M. The demand for local telephone service: a fully discrete model of residential call patterns and service choice. Rand J. Econ. 1987, 18(1):109-123.
41. Train K., Winston C. Vehicle choice behaviour and the declining market share of US automakers. Int. Econ. Rev. 2007, 48(4):1469-1496.
42. Usher J., Dunstan C., Ross K., Christie L., Paevere P., Higgins A. Synthesised policy and technology options report: building the EV market in Victoria. by the Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS: Sydney 2012.
43. VISTA Victorian Integrated Survey of Travel and Activity 2009, Victorian Department of Transport, [www.transport.vic.gov.au].
44. Voogd H. Multicriterion evaluation with mixed qualitative and quantitative data. Environ. Plann. Bull. 1982, 9:221-236.
45. Zeleny M. Compromise programming. Multiple Criteria Decision Making 1973, 262-301. University of Southern Carolina Press, Columbia, SC. M. Cocharane, M. Zeleny (Eds.).