Values and uncertainties in the predictions of global climate models

Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal

Volumn 22, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 111-137

  Winsberg, Eric ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CLIMATE; CLIMATE CHANGE; FORECASTING; HUMAN; KNOWLEDGE; POLITICAL SYSTEM; PREDICTIVE VALUE; PROBABILITY; SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY; THEORETICAL MODEL; UNCERTAINTY;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATIC PROCESSES; DEMOCRACY; FORECASTING; HUMANS; KNOWLEDGE; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS; PROBABILITY; SOCIAL VALUES; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 84865807596     PISSN: 10546863     EISSN: 10863249     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1353/ken.2012.0008     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Allen, Myles. 2007. What Can Be Said about Future Climate? ClimatePrediction. net, June. Available at http://www.climateprediction.net/science/pubs/allen_Harvard2008.ppt, accessed 3 Jul. 2008.
2. Biddle, Justin, and Eric Winsberg. 2009.Value Judgments and the Estimation of Uncertainty in Climate Modeling. In New Waves in the Philosophy of Science, ed. P. D. Magnus and Jacob Busch, 172-197. New York: Palgrave MacMillan.
3. Churchman, C. West. 1948. Theory of Experimental Inference. New York: Macmillan.
4. Churchman, C. West. 1956. Science and Decision Making. Philosophy of Science 23 (3): 247-49.
5. Clark, Andy. 1987. The Kluge in the Machine. Mind and Language 2 (4): 277-300.
6. Dickenson, Robert E.; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Anderson, Jeffery L.; et al. 2002. How Can We Advance Our Weather and Climate Models as a Community? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83 (3): 431-34.
7. Douglas, Heather. 2000. Inductive Risk and Values in Science. Philosophy of Science 67 (4): 559-79.
8. Dunne, John. 2006. Towards Earth System Modelling: Bringing GFDL to Life. Paper presented at the ACCESS 2006 BMRC Workshop. Available at http://www.cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/basic/wksp18/papers/Dunne_ESM.pdf, accessed 11 Jan. 2011.
9. Elliot, Kevin. 2011a. Direct and Indirect Roles for Values in Science. Philosophy of Science 78 (2): 303-24.
10. Elliot, Kevin. 2011b. Is a Little Pollution Good for You? Incorporating Societal Values in Environmental Research. New York: Oxford University Press.
11. Frank, Philipp G. 1954. The Variety of Reasons for the Acceptance of Scientific Theories. In The Validation of Scientific Theories, ed. Phillipp Frank, 3-17. Boston: Beacon Press.
12. Gleckler, Peter J.; Taylor, Karl E.; and Doutriaux, Charles. 2008. Performance Metrics for Climate Models. Journal of Geophysical Research 113: D06104, doi:10.1029/ 2007JD008972.
13. Goldstein, Matthew, and Rougier, Jonathan C. 2006. Bayes Linear Calibrated Prediction for Complex Systems. Journal of the American Statistical Association 101(475): 1132-43.
14. Howard, Don A. 2006. Lost Wanderers in the Forest of Knowledge: Some Thoughts on the Discovery-Justification Distinction. In Revisiting Discovery and Justification: Historical and Philosophical Perspectives on the Context Distinction, ed. Jutta Schickore and Friedrich Steinle, 3-22. New York: Springer.
15. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
16. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
17. Jeffrey, Richard C. 1956. Valuation and Acceptance of Scientific Hypotheses. Philosophy of Science 23 (3): 237-46.
18. Kourany, Janet. 2003. A Philosophy of Science for the Twenty-First Century. Philosophy of Science 70 (1): 1-14.
19. Kourany, Janet 2003a. Reply to Giere. Philosophy of Science 70 (1): 22-26.
20. Küppers, Günter, and Lenhard, Johannes. 2006. Simulation and a Revolution in Modeling Style: From Hierarchical to Network-like Integration. In Simulation: Pragmatic Construction of Reality, Sociology of the Sciences, ed. Johannes Lenhard, Günter Küppers, and Terry Shinn, 89-106. Dordrecht: Springer.
21. Lambert, Steven, and Boer, George. 2001. CMIP1 Evaluation and Intercomparison of Coupled Climate Models. Climate Dynamics 17 (2-3): 83-106.
22. Lenhard, Johannes, and Winsberg, Eric. 2010. Holism, Entrenchment, and the Future of Climate Model Pluralism. Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 41 (3): 253-62.
23. Longino, Helen. 1990. Science As Social Knowledge: Values and Objectivity in Scientific Inquiry. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
24. Longino, Helen. 1996. Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Values in Science: Rethinking the Dichotomy. In Feminism, Science, and the Philosophy of Science, ed. Lynn Hankinson Nelson and Jack Nelson, 39-58. Dordrecht: Kluwer.
25. Longino, Helen. 2002. The Fate of Knowledge. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
26. Masson, David., and Knutti, Reto. 2011. Climate Model Genealogy. Geophysical Research Letters 38 (8): L08703, doi:10.1029/2011GL046864.
27. Neurath, Otto. 1913. Die Verirrten des Cartesius und das Auxiliarmotiv: Zur Psychologie des Entschlusses. In Jahrbuch der Philosophischen Gesellschaft an der Universität Wien, 45-59. Leipzig: Johann Ambrosius Barth.
28. Palmer, Tim N. 2001. A Nonlinear Dynamical Perspective on Model Error: A Proposal for Non-local Stochastic-Dynamic Parameterization in Weather and Climate Prediction Models. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 127 (572): 279-304.
29. Parker, Wendy S. 2011. When Climate Models Agree: The Significance of Robust Model Predictions. Philosophy of Science 78 (4): 579-600.
30. Rudner, Richard. 1953. The Scientist Qua Scientist Makes Value Judgments. Philosophy of Science 20 (1): 1-6.
31. Shackley, Simon; Risbey, James; Stone, Peter; and Wynne, Brian. 1999. Adjusting to Policy Expectations in Climate Change Science: An Interdisciplinary Study of Flux Adjustments in Coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models. Climatic Change 43 (2): 413-54.
32. Shewhart, Walter A. 1939. Statistical Method from the Viewpoint of Quality Control. New York: Dover.
33. Smith, Leonard A. 2002. What Might We Learn from Climate Forecasts? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 4(99): 2487-92.
34. Solomon, Miriam. 2001. Social Empiricism. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
35. Tebaldi, Claudia, and Knutti, Reto. 2007. The Use of the Multimodel Ensemble in Probabilistic Climate Projections. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 365(1857): 2053-75.
36. Weart, Spencer. 2010. The Development of General Circulation Models of Climate. Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 41(3): 208-17.
37. Wilholt, Torsten. 2009. Bias and Values in Scientific Research. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science 40(1): 92-101.
38. Wimsatt, William. 2007. Re-engineering Philosophy for Limited Beings: Piecewise Approximations to Reality. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
39. Winsberg, Eric. 2006. Handshaking Your Way to the Top: Simulation at the Nanoscale. Philosophy of Science 73 (5): 582-94.
40. Winsberg, Eric. 2010. Science in the Age of Computer Simulation. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.