Forecast skill and predictability of observed atlantic sea surface temperatures

Journal of Climate

Volumn 25, Issue 14, 2012, Pages 5047-5056

  Zanna, Laure ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate prediction; Climate variability; North Atlantic Ocean; Singular vectors; Statistical forecasting

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE PREDICTION; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN; SINGULAR VECTORS; STATISTICAL FORECASTING;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATOLOGY; DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS; INVERSE PROBLEMS;

FORECASTING;

ANNUAL VARIATION; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DECADAL VARIATION; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; NUMERICAL MODEL; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; TEMPERATURE ANOMALY; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTH);

EID: 84865146682     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00539.1     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Battisti, D. S., U. S. Bhatt, and M. A. Alexander, 1995: A modeling study of the interannual variability in the wintertime North Atlantic Ocean. J. Climate, 8, 3067-3083.
2. Biasutti, M., I. M. Held, A. H. Sobel, and A. Giannini, 2008: SST forcings and Sahel rainfall variability in simulations of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. J. Climate, 21, 3471-3486.
3. Bjerknes, J., 1964: Atlantic air-sea interaction. Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 10, Academic Press, 1-82.
4. Buizza, R., and T. N. Palmer, 1995: The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1434-1456.
5. Chen, F., and M. Ghil, 1995: Interdecadal variability of the thermohaline circulation and high-latitude surface fluxes. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 25, 2547-2568.
6. Czaja, A., and J. Marshall, 2001: Observations of atmosphereocean coupling in the North Atlantic. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 1893-1916.
7. DelSole, T., M. K. Tippett, and J. Shukla, 2011: A significant component of unforced multidecadal variability in the recent acceleration of global warming. J. Climate, 24, 909-926.
8. Deser, C., and M. L. Blackmon, 1993: Surface climate variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during winter: 1900-1989. J. Climate, 6, 1743-1753.
9. Enfield, D. B., A. M. Mestas-Nunez, and P. J. Trimble, 2001: The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental US. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2077-2080.
10. Farrell, B. F., 1982: The initial growth of disturbances in a baroclinic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 1663-1686.
11. Farrell, B. F., 1989: Optimal excitation of baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 1193-1206.
12. Farrell, B. F., and P. J. Ioannou, 1996: Generalized stability theory. Part I: Autonomous operators. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 2025-2040.
13. Griffies, S. M., and E. Tziperman, 1995: A linear thermohaline oscillator driven by stochastic atmospheric forcing. J. Climate, 8, 2440-2453.
14. Griffies, S. M., and K. Bryan, 1997: Predictability of North Atlantic multidecadal climate variability. Science, 275, 181-184.
15. Halliwell, G. R., 1998: Simulation of North Atlantic decadal/ multidecadal winter SST anomalies driven by basin-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. J. Phys.Oceanogr., 28, 5-21.
16. Hasselmann, K., 1988: PIPs and POPs: The reduction of complex dynamical systems using principal interaction and oscillation patterns. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 11 015-11 021.
17. Hawkins, E., and R. Sutton, 2009: Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: Forecast skill and optimal perturbations using linear inverse modeling. J. Climate, 22, 3960-3978.
18. Hawkins, E., J. Robson, R. Sutton, D. Smith, and N. Keenlyside, 2011: Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach. Climate Dyn., 37, 2495-2509.
19. Kaplan, A., M. A. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. C. Clement, M. B. Blumenthal, and B. Rajagopalan, 1998: Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 18 567-18 589.
20. Kushnir, Y., 1994: Interdecadal variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature and associated atmospheric conditions. J. Climate, 7, 141-157.
21. Marshall, J., H. Johnson, and J. Goodman, 2001: A study of the interaction of the North Atlantic oscillation with ocean circulation. J. Climate., 14, 1399-1421.
22. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 1996: The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 1405-1446.
23. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 2001: The differences between the optimal perturbations of coupled models of ENSO. J. Climate, 14, 138-163.
24. Newman, M., 2007: Interannual to decadal predictability of tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperatures. J. Climate, 20, 2333-2356.
25. Palmer, T. N., 1986: Influence of Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans on Sahel rainfall. Nature, 322, 251-253.
26. Penland, C., and L. Matrosova, 1994: A balance condition for stochastic numerical-models with application to the El Niño- Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 7, 1352-1372.
27. Penland, C., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1995: The optimal-growth of tropical sea-surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 8, 1999-2024.
28. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003:Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
29. Rayner, N. A., P. Brohan, D. E. Parker, C. K. Folland, J. J. Kennedy, M. Vanicek, T. J. Ansell, and S. F. B. Tett, 2006: Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century: The HadSST2 dataset. J. Climate, 19, 446-469.
30. Schlesinger, M. E., and N. Ramankutty, 1994: An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65-70 years. Nature, 367, 723-726.
31. Sutton, R. T., and D. L. R. Hodson, 2005: Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate. Science, 309, 115-118.
32. Ting, M. F., Y. Kushnir, R. Seager, and C. H. Li, 2009: Forced and internal twentieth-century SST trends in the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 22, 1469-1481.
33. Tziperman, E., L. Zanna, and C. Penland, 2008: Nonnormal thermohaline circulation dynamics in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 38, 588-604.
34. Vimont, D. J., 2012:Analysis of the Atlantic meridional mode using linear inverse modeling: Seasonality and regional influences. J. Climate, 25, 1194-1212.
35. Weaver, A. J., J. Marotzke, P. F. Cummins, and E. S. Sarachik, 1993: Stability and variability of the thermohaline circulation. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 23, 39-60.
36. Wunsch, C., 2012: Covariances and linear predictability of the Atlantic Ocean. Deep-Sea Res., in press.
37. Zanna, L., P. Heimbach, A. M. Moore, and E. Tziperman, 2012: Upper ocean singular vectors of the North Atlantic climate with implications for linear predictability and variability. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 500-513.
38. Zhao, M., I.M. Held, S. J. Lin, and G. A. Vecchi, 2009: Simulations of global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global warming using a 50-km resolution GCM. J. Climate, 22, 6653-6678.