Interannual variability of indian summer monsoon arising from interactions between seasonal mean and intraseasonal oscillations

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Volumn 69, Issue 6, 2012, Pages 1761-1774

  Suhas, E ^a   Neena, J M ^a   Goswami, B N ^a  

^a INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY   (India)

Author keywords

Interannual variability; Interdecadal variability; Intraseasonal variability; Monsoons

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL CYCLE; CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKS; ECMWF RE-ANALYSIS; EXCHANGE PROCESS; EXTERNAL FORCING; FREQUENCY DOMAINS; HIGH FREQUENCY HF; INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON; INTER-DECADAL VARIABILITY; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; INTERNAL DYNAMICS; INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS; INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY; MODELING STUDIES; MONSOON CIRCULATIONS; MONSOONS; PRESSURE LEVEL; SCALE INTERACTIONS; SEASONAL MEAN; SUMMER SEASON;

ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS; DYNAMICS; GLOBAL WARMING; UPPER ATMOSPHERE;

TROPICAL ENGINEERING;

ANNUAL CYCLE; ANNUAL VARIATION; DECADAL VARIATION; KINETIC ENERGY; MONSOON; SEASONAL VARIATION; SUMMER;

EID: 84864831379     PISSN: 00224928     EISSN: 15200469     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-11-0211.1     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Ajaya Mohan, R. S., and B. N. Goswami, 2003: Potential predictability of the Asian summer monsoon on monthly and seasonal time scales.Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 84, 83-100, doi:10.1007/ s00703-002-0576-4.
2. Annamalai, H., J. Slingo, K. R. Sperber, and K. Hodges, 1999: The mean evolution and variability of the Asian summer monsoon: Comparison of ECMWF and NCEP-NCAR analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 1157-1186.
3. Awade, S. T., M. Y. Totagi, and S. M. Bawiskar, 1982: Wave to wave and wave to zonal mean flow kinetic energy exchanges during contrasting monsoon years. Pure Appl. Geophys., 120, 463-482.
4. Bengtsson, L., S. Hagemann, and K. I. Hodges, 2004: Can climate trends be calculated from reanalysis data? J. Geophys. Res., 109, D11111, doi:10.1029/2004JD004536.
5. Charney, J. G., and J. Shukla, 1981: Predictability of monsoons. Monsoon Dynamics, J. Lighthill and R. P. Pearce, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 99-109.
6. Chen, W. Y., 1982: Fluctuations in Northern Hemisphere 700-mb height field associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 808-823.
7. Chou, C., and C.-A. Chen, 2010: Depth of convection and the weakening of tropical circulation in global warming. J. Climate, 23, 3019-3030.
8. Ferranti, L., J. M. Slingo, T. N. Palmer, and B. J. Hoskins, 1997: Relations between interannual and intraseasonal monsoon variability as diagnosed from AMIP integrations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 1323-1357.
9. Fujinami, H., and Coauthors, 2011: Characteristic intraseasonal oscillation of rainfall and its effect on interannual variability over Bangladesh during boreal summer. Int. J. Climatol., 31, 1192-1204, doi:10.1002/joc.2146.
10. Gadgil, S., M. Rajeevan, and R. Nanjundiah, 2005: Monsoon prediction? Why yet another failure? Curr. Sci., 88, 1389-1400.
11. Goswami, B. N., 1995:Amultiscale interaction model for the origin of the tropospheric QBO. J. Climate, 8, 524-534.
12. Goswami, B. N., 1998: Interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: External conditions versus internal feedbacks. J. Climate, 11, 501-522.
13. Goswami, B. N., 2005: South Asian monsoon. Intraseasonal Variability of the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System, W. K. M. Lau and D. E. Waliser, Eds, Springer, 19-61.
14. Goswami, B. N., and R. S. Ajaya Mohan, 2001: Intraseasonal oscillations and inter-annual variability of the Indian summer monsoon. J. Climate, 14, 1180-1198.
15. Goswami, B. N., and P. K. Xavier, 2005: Dynamics of "internal" interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D24104, doi:10.1029/2005JD006042.
16. Goswami, B. N., R. S. Ajaya Mohan, P. K. Xavier, and D. Sengupta, 2003: Clustering of low pressure systems during the Indian summer monsoon by intraseasonal oscillations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1431, doi:10.1029/2002GL016734.
17. Goswami, B. N., M. S. Madhusoodanan, C. P. Neema, and D. Sengupta, 2006a: Aphysical mechanism for North Atlantic SST influence on the Indian summer monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L02706, doi:10.1029/2005GL024803.
18. Goswami, B. N., G. Wu, and T. Yasunari, 2006b: Annual cycle, intraseasonal oscillations and roadblock to seasonal predictability of the Asian summer monsoon. J. Climate, 19, 5078-5099.
19. Hahn, D. J., and J. Shukla, 1976: An apparent relationship between Eurasian snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall. J. Atmos. Sci., 33, 2461-2462.
20. Hayashi, Y., 1980: Estimation of nonlinear energy transfer spectra by the cross-spectral method. J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 299-307.
21. Held, I. M., and A. Y. Hou, 1980: Nonlinear axially symmetric circulations in a nearly inviscid atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 515-533.
22. Holopainen, E. O., 1978a: On the dynamical forcing of the longterm mean flow by the large-scale Reynolds' stresses in the atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 1596-1604.
23. Goswami, B. N.,1978b:Adiagnostic study on the kinetic energy balance of the long-term mean flow and the associated transient fluctuations in the atmosphere. Geophysica, 15, 125-145.
24. Hoskins, B. J., and R. P. Pearce, 1983: Large-Scale Dynamical Processes in the Atmosphere. Academic Press, 397 pp.
25. Hoskins, B. J., I. N. James, and G. H. White, 1983: The shape, propagation, and mean flow interaction of large-scale weather systems. J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 1595-1612.
26. Hoyos, C. D., and P. J. Webster, 2007: The role of intraseasonal variability in the nature of Asian monsoon precipitation. J. Climate, 20, 4402-4424.
27. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
28. Kanamitsu, M., T. N. Krishnamurti, and C. Depradine, 1972: On scale interactions in the tropics during northern summer. J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 698-706.
29. Kang, I.-S., and J. Shukla, 2006: Dynamic seasonal prediction and predictability. The Asian Monsoon, Springer, 585-612.
30. Kang, I.-S., J. Y. Lee, and C. K. Park, 2004: Potential predictability of summer mean precipitation in a dynamical seasonal prediction system with systematic error correction. J. Climate, 17, 834-844.
31. Krishna Kumar, K., M. Hoerling, and B. Rajagopalan, 2005: Advancing dynamical prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L08704, doi:10.1029/2004GL021979.
32. Krishna Kumar, K., B. Rajagopalan, M. Hoerling, G. Bates, and M. Cane, 2006: Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Nin{ogonek} o. Science, 314, 115-119, doi:10.1126/science.1131152.
33. Krishnamurthy, V., and B. N. Goswami, 2000: Indian monsoon- ENSO relationship on interdecadal time scales. J. Climate, 13, 579-595.
34. Krishnamurthy, V., and J. Shukla, 2008: Seasonal persistence and propagation of intraseasonal patterns over the Indian monsoon region. Climate Dyn., 30, 353-369.
35. Krishnamurti, T. N., and D. R. Chakraborty, 2005: The dynamics of phase locking. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2952-2964.
36. Krishnamurti, T. N., D.Bachiochi, T.Larow, B. Jha, M. Tewari, D. R.Chakraborty, R. Correa-Torres, andD.Oosterhof, 2000: Coupled atmosphere- ocean modeling of the El Nin{ogonek} o of 1997/98. J. Climate, 13, 2428-2459.
37. Krishnamurti, T. N., D. R. Chakraborty, N. Cubukcu, L. Stefanova, and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, 2003: A mechanism of the Madden-Julian oscillation based on interactions in the frequency domain. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 2559-2590.
38. Lau, K.-H., and N.-C. Lau, 1992: The energetic and propagation dynamics of tropical summer time synoptic-scale disturbances. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 2523-2539.
39. Lawrence, D. M., and P. J. Webster, 2001: Interannual variations of the intraseasonal oscillation in the South Asian summer monsoon region. J. Climate, 14, 2910-2922.
40. Maloney, E. D., and D. L. Hartmann, 2001: The Madden-Julian oscillation, barotropic dynamics, and North Pacific tropical cyclone formation. Part I: Observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2545-2558.
41. Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1069-1079.
42. Neena, J. M., and B. N. Goswami, 2010: Extension of potential predictability of Indian summer monsoon dry and wet spells in recent decades. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 583-592.
43. Qi, Y., R. Zhang, T. Li, and M. Wen, 2008: Interactions between the summer mean monsoon and the intraseasonal oscillation in the Indian monsoon region. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17704, doi:10.1029/2008GL034517.
44. Rajeevan, M., J. Bhate, and A. K. Jaswal, 2008: Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L18707, doi:10.1029/2008GL035143.
45. Rasmusson, E. M., and T. H. Carpenter, 1983: The relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 517-528.
46. Saltzman, B., 1957: Equations governing the energetics of the larger scales of atmospheric turbulence in the domain of wave number. J. Atmos. Sci., 14, 513-523.
47. Schneider, E. K., and R. S. Lindzen, 1977: Axially symmetric steady-state models of the basic state for instability and climate studies. Part I. Linearized calculations. J. Atmos. Sci., 34, 263-279.
48. Seiki, A., and Y. N. Takayabu, 2007: Westerly wind bursts and their relationship with intraseasonal variations and ENSO. Part II: Energetics over the western and central Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3346-3361.
49. Serra, Y. L., G. N. Kiladis, and M. F. Cronin, 2008: Horizontal and vertical structure of easterly waves in the Pacific ITCZ. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 1266-1284.
50. Sheng, J., and Y. Hayashi, 1990: Estimation of atmospheric energetics in the frequency domain during the FGGE year. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 1255-1268.
51. Shukla, J., 1998: Predictability in the midst of chaos: A scientific basis for climate forecasting. Science, 282, 728-731.
52. Shukla, J., and D. Paolino, 1983: The Southern Oscillation and the longrange forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1830-1837.
53. Sperber, K. R., J. M. Slingo, and H. Annamalai, 2000: Predictability and the relationship between subseasonal and interannual variability during the Asian summer monsoon. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 2545-2574.
54. Uppala, S. M., and Coauthors, 2005: The ERA-40 Re-Analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2961-3012.
55. Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007: Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. J. Climate, 20, 4316-4340.
56. Vecchi, G. A., B. J. Soden, A. T. Wittenberg, I. M. Held, A. Leetmaa, and M. J. Harrison, 2006: Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature, 441, 73-76.
57. Webster, P. J., V. O. Magana, T. N. Palmer, J. Shukla, R. A. Tomas, M. Yanai, and T. Yasunari, 1998: Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14451-14510.