Impact of different ocean reanalyses on decadal climate prediction

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 39, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 795-810

  Kröger, Jürgen ^a   Müller, Wolfgang A ^a   von Storch, Jin Song ^a  

^a MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY   (Germany)

Author keywords

Assimilation; Climate; Decadal; Fidelity; Forecast; Hindcast; Initialized; Near term; Ocean reanalysis; Ocean state estimate; Predictability; Prediction

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE PREDICTION; DATA ASSIMILATION; DECADAL VARIATION; FORECASTING METHOD; HINDCASTING; MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTH);

EID: 84864379037     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1310-7     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. Balmaseda MA, Smith GC, Haines K, Anderson D, Palmer TN, Vidard A (2007) Historical reconstruction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis. Geophys Res Lett 34: L23615. doi: 10. 1029/2007GL031645.
2. Balmaseda MA, Vidard A, Anderson D (2008) The ECMWF ocean analysis system: ORA-S3. Mon Weather Rev 136: 3018-3034.
3. Brohan P, Kennedy JJ, Harris I, B TSF, Jones PD (2006) Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J Geophys Res 111: D12106. doi: 10. 1029/2005JD006548.
4. Bryden HL, Longworth HR, Cunningham SA (2005) Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N. Nature 438. doi: 10. 1038/nature04385.
5. Carton JA, Giese B (2008) A reanalysis of ocean climate using simple ocean data assimilation (SODA). Mon Weat Rev 136. doi: 10. 1175/2007MWR1978. 1.
6. Cox P, Stephenson D (2007) A changing climate for prediction. Science 317: 207-208.
7. Cunningham et al (2007) Temporal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26. 5° N. Science 317: 935-938.
8. DelSole T, Shukla J (2010) Model fidelity versus skill in seasonal forecasting. J Clim 23: 4794-4806. doi: 10. 1175/2010JCLI3164. 1.
9. Doblas-Reyes FJ, Balmaseda MA, Weisheimer A, Palmer TN (2011) Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: impact of ocean observations. J Geophys Res 116: D19111. doi: 10. 1029/2010JD015394.
10. Dunstone NJ, Smith DM (2010) Impact of atmosphere and sub-surface ocean data on decadal climate prediction. Geophys Res Lett 37: L02709. doi: 10. 1029/2009GL041609.
11. Hawkins E, Sutton R (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90: 1095-1107. doi: 10. 1175/2009BAMS2607. 1.
12. Jungclaus JH, Keenlyside N, Botzet M, Haak H, Luo JJ, Latif M, Marotzke J, Mikolajewicz U, Roeckner E (2006) Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. J Clim 19: 3952-3972.
13. Kalnay et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77: 437-471.
14. Kanzow T, Cunningham SA, Johns WE, Hirschi JJM, Marotzke J, Baringer MO, Meinen CS, Chidichimo MP, Atkinson C, Beal LM, Bryden HL, Collins J (2010) Seasonal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26. 5n. J Clim 23: 5678-5698. doi: 10. 1175/2010JCLI3389. 1.
15. Keenlyside NS, Ba J (2010) Prospects for decadal climate prediction. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 1: 627-635.
16. Keenlyside NS, Latif M, Jungclaus J, Kornblueh L, Roeckner E (2008) Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature 453: 84-88. doi: 10. 1038/nature06921.
17. Köhl A, Stammer D (2008) Decadal sea level changes in the 50-year GECCO ocean synthesis. J Clim 21: 1876-1890.
18. Köhl A, Stammer D (2008) Variability of the meridional overturning in the North Atlantic from the 50-year GECCO state estimate. J Phys Oceanogr 38: 1913-1930. doi: 10. 1175/2008JPO3775. 1.
19. Kröger J, Kucharski F (2010) Sensitivity of ENSO characteristics to a new interactive flux correction scheme in a coupled GCM. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-010-0759-5.
20. Levitus S, Antonov JI, Boyer TP, Locarnini RA, Garcia HE, Mishonov AV (2009) Global ocean heat content 1955-2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems. Geophys Res Lett 36: L07608. doi: 10. 1029/2008GL037155.
21. Marsland SJ, Haak H, Jungclaus JH, Latif M, Röske F (2003) The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates. Ocean Model 5: 91-127.
22. Matei D, Baehr J, Jungclaus JH, Müller WA, Marotzke J (2011) Multi-year prediction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26. 5° N. Science 335: 76-79.
23. Matei D, Pohlmann H, Jungclaus JH, Müller WA, Haak H, Marotzke J (2011b) Two tales of initializing decadal climate predictions experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. J Clim (Submitted).
24. Meehl GA, Goddard L, Murphy J, Stouffer RJ, Boer G, Danabasoglu G, Dixon K, Giorgetta MA, Greene AM, Hawkins E, Hegerl G, Karoly D, Keenlyside N, Kimoto M, Kirtman B, Navarra A, Pulwarty R, Smith D, Stammer D, Stockdale T (2009) Decadal prediction. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90: 1467-1485. doi: 10. 1175/2009BAMS2778. 1.
25. Mudelsee M (2010) Climate time series analysis-classical statistical and bootstrap methods. Springer, Berlin. doi: 10. 1007/978-90-481-9482-7.
26. Munoz E, Kirtman B, Weijer W (2011) Varied representation of the Atlantic meridional overturning across multidecadal ocean reanalyses. Deep-Sea Res II 58: 1848-1857. doi: 10. 1016/j. dsr2. 2010. 10. 064.
27. Pohlmann H, Jungclaus JH, Köhl A, Stammer D, Marotzke J (2009) Initializing decadal climate prediction with the GECCO oceanic synthesis: effects on the North Atlantic. J Clim 22: 3926-3938. doi: 10. 1175/2009JCLI2535. 1.
28. Roeckner et al (2003) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. Part 1: Model description. Tech Rep 349, Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, 140 pp.
29. Schneider EK, Huang B, Zhu Z, DeWitt DG, Kinter JL, Kirtman B, Shukla J (1999) Ocean data assimilation, initialization and prediction of ENSO with a coupled GCM. Mon Weather Rev 127: 1187-1207.
30. Smith DM, Cusack S, Colman AW, Folland C, Harris GR, Murphy JM (2007) Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science 317: 796-799. doi: 10. 1126/science. 1139540.
31. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.
32. Stammer D, Köhl A, Awaji T, Balmaseda M, Behringer D, Carton J, Ferry N, Fischer A, Fukumori I, Giese B, Haines K, Harrison E, Heimbach P, Kamachi M, Keppenne C, Lee T, Masina S, Menemenlis D, Ponte R, Remy E, Rienecker M, Rosati A, Schroeter J, Smith D, Weaver A, Wunsch C, Xue Y (2010) Ocean information provided through ensemble ocean syntheses. In: Hall J, Harrison D, Stammer D (eds) Proceedings of the OceanObs'09: sustained ocean observations and information for society conference, ESA Publication WPP-306, Venice, Italy, 21-25 Sep 2009, vol 2.
33. Wang C, Dong S, Munoz E (2009) Seawater density variations in the North Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-009-0560-5.
34. Wilks DS (2006) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. International Geophysics Series, vol 91. Elsevier.