메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 190, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 677-686

Whole Earth high-resolution earthquake forecasts

Author keywords

Dynamics: seismotectonics; Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction; Probabilistic forecasting; Probability distributions; Seismicity and tectonics, Statistical seismology

Indexed keywords

ACTIVE AREA; ADAPTIVE KERNELS; CELL SIZE; DISCRETIZATION EFFECTS; EARTHQUAKE FORECAST; EFFECTIVE WIDTH; ERROR DIAGRAMS; GLOBAL REGIONS; HIGH RESOLUTION; LIKELIHOOD SCORE; LONG-TERM FORECAST; OMORI'S LAW; PER UNIT; POINT DENSITY; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING; SEISMOTECTONICS; SHORT-TERM FORECASTS; SMOOTHING KERNELS; TEMPORAL CLUSTERING;

EID: 84862176141     PISSN: 0956540X     EISSN: 1365246X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05521.x     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (14)

References (45)
  • 1
    • 14344261878 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Plate-tectonic analysis of shallow seismicity: apparent boundary width, beta, corner magnitude, coupled lithosphere thickness, and coupling in seven tectonic settings
    • see also an update at, last accessed 2011 December).
    • Bird, P. & Kagan, Y.Y., 2004. Plate-tectonic analysis of shallow seismicity: apparent boundary width, beta, corner magnitude, coupled lithosphere thickness, and coupling in seven tectonic settings, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 94(6), 2380-2399, (see also an update at, last accessed 2011 December).
    • (2004) Bull. seism. Soc. Am. , vol.94 , Issue.6 , pp. 2380-2399
    • Bird, P.1    Kagan, Y.Y.2
  • 2
    • 77950558323 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A long-term forecast of shallow seismicity based on the global strain rate map
    • Bird, P., Kreemer, C. & Holt, W.E., 2010a. A long-term forecast of shallow seismicity based on the global strain rate map, Seism. Res. Lett., 81(2), 184-194.
    • (2010) Seism. Res. Lett. , vol.81 , Issue.2 , pp. 184-194
    • Bird, P.1    Kreemer, C.2    Holt, W.E.3
  • 3
    • 84862174020 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Time-dependent global seismicity forecasts with a tectonic component: retrospective tests, AGU Fall Meet. Abstract S44B-03.
    • Bird, P., Kagan, Y.Y. & Jackson, D.D., 2010b. Time-dependent global seismicity forecasts with a tectonic component: retrospective tests, AGU Fall Meet. Abstract S44B-03.
    • (2010)
    • Bird, P.1    Kagan, Y.Y.2    Jackson, D.D.3
  • 5
    • 79957824758 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncharted seismic risk
    • England, P. & Jackson, J., 2011. Uncharted seismic risk, Nat. Geosci., 4, 348-349.
    • (2011) Nat. Geosci. , vol.4 , pp. 348-349
    • England, P.1    Jackson, J.2
  • 6
    • 0001763140 scopus 로고
    • Dispersion on a sphere
    • Fisher, R.A., 1953. Dispersion on a sphere, Proc. R. Soc., 271, 295-305.
    • (1953) Proc. R. Soc. , vol.271 , pp. 295-305
    • Fisher, R.A.1
  • 8
    • 33644506758 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparison of short-term and time-independent earthquake forecast models for southern California
    • Helmstetter, A., Kagan, Y.Y. & Jackson, D.D., 2006. Comparison of short-term and time-independent earthquake forecast models for southern California, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 96(1), 90-106.
    • (2006) Bull. seism. Soc. Am. , vol.96 , Issue.1 , pp. 90-106
    • Helmstetter, A.1    Kagan, Y.Y.2    Jackson, D.D.3
  • 9
    • 34248663223 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • High-resolution time-independent grid-based forecast for M≥ 5 earthquakes in California
    • Helmstetter, A., Kagan, Y.Y. & Jackson, D.D., 2007. High-resolution time-independent grid-based forecast for M≥ 5 earthquakes in California, Seism. Res. Lett., 78(1), 78-86.
    • (2007) Seism. Res. Lett. , vol.78 , Issue.1 , pp. 78-86
    • Helmstetter, A.1    Kagan, Y.Y.2    Jackson, D.D.3
  • 10
    • 0000363656 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testable earthquake forecasts for 1999
    • Jackson, D.D. & Kagan, Y.Y., 1999. Testable earthquake forecasts for 1999, Seism. Res. Lett., 70(4), 393-403.
    • (1999) Seism. Res. Lett. , vol.70 , Issue.4 , pp. 393-403
    • Jackson, D.D.1    Kagan, Y.Y.2
  • 11
    • 77955627938 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Operational earthquake forecasting: some thoughts on why and how
    • Jordan, T.H. & Jones, L.M., 2010. Operational earthquake forecasting: some thoughts on why and how, Seism. Res. Lett., 81(4), 571-574.
    • (2010) Seism. Res. Lett. , vol.81 , Issue.4 , pp. 571-574
    • Jordan, T.H.1    Jones, L.M.2
  • 12
    • 80052984193 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Operational earthquake forecasting - state of knowledge and guidelines for utilization
    • Jordan, T.H. et al., 2011. Operational earthquake forecasting - state of knowledge and guidelines for utilization, Ann. Geophys., 54(4), 315-391, doi:.
    • (2011) Ann. Geophys. , vol.54 , Issue.4 , pp. 315-391
    • Jordan, T.H.1
  • 13
    • 0000765575 scopus 로고
    • Statistical methods in the study of the seismic process (with discussion: Comments by Bartlett M.S., Hawkes A.G., and Tukey J.W.)
    • Kagan, Y.Y., 1973. Statistical methods in the study of the seismic process (with discussion: Comments by Bartlett M.S., Hawkes A.G., and Tukey J.W.), Bull. Int. Stat. Inst., 45(3), 437-453.
    • (1973) Bull. Int. Stat. Inst. , vol.45 , Issue.3 , pp. 437-453
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1
  • 14
    • 0030792905 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seismic moment-frequency relation for shallow earthquakes: regional comparison
    • Kagan, Y.Y., 1997. Seismic moment-frequency relation for shallow earthquakes: regional comparison, J. geophys. Res., 102(B2), 2835-2852.
    • (1997) J. geophys. Res. , vol.102 , Issue.B2 , pp. 2835-2852
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1
  • 15
    • 0037465143 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Accuracy of modern global earthquake catalogs
    • Kagan, Y.Y., 2003. Accuracy of modern global earthquake catalogs, Phys. Earth planet. Inter., 135(2-3), 173-209.
    • (2003) Phys. Earth planet. Inter. , vol.135 , Issue.2-3 , pp. 173-209
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1
  • 16
    • 33847773048 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Earthquake spatial distribution: the correlation dimension
    • Kagan, Y.Y., 2007. Earthquake spatial distribution: the correlation dimension, Geophys. J. Int., 168(3), 1175-1194, doi:.
    • (2007) Geophys. J. Int. , vol.168 , Issue.3 , pp. 1175-1194
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1
  • 17
    • 64849114377 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagrams
    • Kagan, Y.Y., 2009. Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagrams, Geophys. J. Int., 177(2), 532-542.
    • (2009) Geophys. J. Int. , vol.177 , Issue.2 , pp. 532-542
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1
  • 18
    • 80051793807 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Random stress and Omori's law
    • Kagan, Y.Y., 2011. Random stress and Omori's law, Geophys. J. Int., 186(3), 1347-1364, doi:.
    • (2011) Geophys. J. Int. , vol.186 , Issue.3 , pp. 1347-1364
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1
  • 19
    • 77954311702 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Earthquake patterns in diverse tectonic zones of the globe
    • The Frank Evison Volume)
    • Kagan, Y.Y., Bird, P. & Jackson, D.D., 2010. Earthquake patterns in diverse tectonic zones of the globe, Pure appl. Geophys. (The Frank Evison Volume), 167(6/7), 721-741, doi:.
    • (2010) Pure appl. Geophys. , vol.167 , Issue.6-7 , pp. 721-741
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1    Bird, P.2    Jackson, D.D.3
  • 20
    • 0028601589 scopus 로고
    • Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes
    • Kagan, Y.Y. & Jackson, D.D., 1994. Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J. geophys. Res., 99, 13685-13700.
    • (1994) J. geophys. Res. , vol.99 , pp. 13685-13700
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1    Jackson, D.D.2
  • 21
    • 0033732689 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes
    • Kagan, Y.Y. & Jackson, D.D., 2000. Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J. Int., 143, 438-453.
    • (2000) Geophys. J. Int. , vol.143 , pp. 438-453
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1    Jackson, D.D.2
  • 22
    • 77950125351 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Earthquake forecasting in diverse tectonic zones of the Globe
    • The Frank Evison Volume)
    • Kagan, Y.Y. & Jackson, D.D., 2010. Earthquake forecasting in diverse tectonic zones of the Globe, Pure appl. Geophys. (The Frank Evison Volume), 167(6/7), 709-719, doi:.
    • (2010) Pure appl. Geophys. , vol.167 , Issue.6-7 , pp. 709-719
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1    Jackson, D.D.2
  • 23
    • 78751528160 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global earthquake forecasts
    • Kagan, Y.Y. & Jackson, D.D., 2011. Global earthquake forecasts, Geophys. J. Int., 184(2), 759-776, doi:.
    • (2011) Geophys. J. Int. , vol.184 , Issue.2 , pp. 759-776
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1    Jackson, D.D.2
  • 24
    • 0004574161 scopus 로고
    • Earthquake risk prediction as a stochastic process
    • Kagan, Y. & Knopoff, L., 1977. Earthquake risk prediction as a stochastic process, Phys. Earth planet. Inter., 14(2), 97-108, doi:.
    • (1977) Phys. Earth planet. Inter. , vol.14 , Issue.2 , pp. 97-108
    • Kagan, Y.1    Knopoff, L.2
  • 25
    • 0023471638 scopus 로고
    • Statistical short-term earthquake prediction
    • Kagan, Y.Y. & Knopoff, L., 1987. Statistical short-term earthquake prediction, Science, 236, 1563-1567.
    • (1987) Science , vol.236 , pp. 1563-1567
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1    Knopoff, L.2
  • 27
    • 79955872576 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Earthquake forecasting and earthquake prediction: different approaches for obtaining the best model
    • Marzocchi, W. & Zechar, J.D., 2011. Earthquake forecasting and earthquake prediction: different approaches for obtaining the best model, Seism. Res. Lett., 82(3), 442-448, doi:.
    • (2011) Seism. Res. Lett. , vol.82 , Issue.3 , pp. 442-448
    • Marzocchi, W.1    Zechar, J.D.2
  • 28
    • 0025244828 scopus 로고
    • Strategies in strong earthquake prediction
    • Molchan, G.M., 1990. Strategies in strong earthquake prediction, Phys. Earth planet. Inter., 61(1-2), 84-98.
    • (1990) Phys. Earth planet. Inter. , vol.61 , Issue.1-2 , pp. 84-98
    • Molchan, G.M.1
  • 29
    • 0030920023 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem
    • Molchan, G.M., 1997. Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem, Pure appl. Geophys., 149(1), 233-247.
    • (1997) Pure appl. Geophys. , vol.149 , Issue.1 , pp. 233-247
    • Molchan, G.M.1
  • 30
    • 78049530866 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Space-Time Earthquake Prediction: the Error Diagrams
    • The Frank Evison Volume)
    • Molchan, G., 2010. Space-Time Earthquake Prediction: the Error Diagrams, Pure appl. Geophys. (The Frank Evison Volume), 167(8/9), 907-917. doi:.
    • (2010) Pure appl. Geophys. , vol.167 , Issue.8-9 , pp. 907-917
    • Molchan, G.1
  • 31
    • 0026454371 scopus 로고
    • Earthquake prediction and its optimization
    • Molchan, G.M. & Kagan, Y.Y., 1992. Earthquake prediction and its optimization, J. geophys. Res., 97, 4823-4838.
    • (1992) J. geophys. Res. , vol.97 , pp. 4823-4838
    • Molchan, G.M.1    Kagan, Y.Y.2
  • 32
    • 84862161303 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Preliminary determinations of epicenters (PDE), U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of Interior, National Earthquake Information Center, and, last accessed 2011 December).
    • Preliminary determinations of epicenters (PDE), 2011. U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of Interior, National Earthquake Information Center, and, (last accessed 2011 December).
    • (2011)
  • 33
    • 67349181319 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global-scale analysis of seismic activity prior to 2004 Sumatra-Andaman mega-earthquake
    • Romashkova, L.L., 2009. Global-scale analysis of seismic activity prior to 2004 Sumatra-Andaman mega-earthquake, Tectonophysics, 470, 329-344, doi:.
    • (2009) Tectonophysics , vol.470 , pp. 329-344
    • Romashkova, L.L.1
  • 34
    • 0037104930 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Earthquake potential in and around China: estimated from past earthquakes
    • art. no.
    • Rong, Y.-F. & Jackson, D.D., 2002. Earthquake potential in and around China: estimated from past earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(16): art. no. 1780, doi:.
    • (2002) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.29 , Issue.16 , pp. 1780
    • Rong, Y.-F.1    Jackson, D.D.2
  • 36
    • 77950144256 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • First results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models Experiment
    • the RELM Working Group, The Frank Evison Volume)
    • Schorlemmer, D., Zechar, J.D., Werner, M., Jackson, D.D., Field, E.H., Jordan, T.H. & the RELM Working Group, 2010. First results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models Experiment, Pure appl. Geophys. (The Frank Evison Volume), 167(8/9), 859-876, doi:.
    • (2010) Pure appl. Geophys. , vol.167 , Issue.8-9 , pp. 859-876
    • Schorlemmer, D.1    Zechar, J.D.2    Werner, M.3    Jackson, D.D.4    Field, E.H.5    Jordan, T.H.6
  • 38
    • 85082754878 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are short-term evacuations warranted? Case of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake
    • van Stiphout, T., Wiemer, S. & Marzocchi, W., 2010. Are short-term evacuations warranted? Case of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L06306, doi:.
    • (2010) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.37
    • van Stiphout, T.1    Wiemer, S.2    Marzocchi, W.3
  • 39
    • 79957906466 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • California earthquake forecasts based on smoothed seismicity: model choices
    • Wang, Qi, Jackson, D.D. & Kagan, Y.Y., 2011. California earthquake forecasts based on smoothed seismicity: model choices, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 101(3), 1422-1430, doi:.
    • (2011) Bull. seism. Soc. Am. , vol.101 , Issue.3 , pp. 1422-1430
    • Wang, Q.1    Jackson, D.D.2    Kagan, Y.Y.3
  • 41
    • 79957911663 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • High resolution long- and short-term earthquake forecasts for California
    • Werner, M.J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D.D. & Kagan, Y.Y., 2011. High resolution long- and short-term earthquake forecasts for California, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 101(4), 1630-1648, doi:.
    • (2011) Bull. seism. Soc. Am. , vol.101 , Issue.4 , pp. 1630-1648
    • Werner, M.J.1    Helmstetter, A.2    Jackson, D.D.3    Kagan, Y.Y.4
  • 42
    • 64849107416 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tossing the Earth: how to reliably test Earthquake Prediction Methods
    • Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract S23A-0302.
    • Zaliapin, I. & Molchan, G., 2004. Tossing the Earth: how to reliably test Earthquake Prediction Methods, EOS, Trans. Am. geophys. Un., 85(47), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract S23A-0302.
    • (2004) EOS, Trans. Am. geophys. Un. , vol.85 , Issue.47
    • Zaliapin, I.1    Molchan, G.2
  • 43
    • 38349115021 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions
    • Zechar, J.D. & Jordan, T.H., 2008. Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions, Geophys. J. Int., 172(2), 715-724, doi:.
    • (2008) Geophys. J. Int. , vol.172 , Issue.2 , pp. 715-724
    • Zechar, J.D.1    Jordan, T.H.2
  • 44
    • 77952592006 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The area skill score statistic for evaluating earthquake predictability experiments
    • The Frank Evison Volume)
    • Zechar, J.D. & Jordan, T.H., 2010. The area skill score statistic for evaluating earthquake predictability experiments, Pure appl. Geophys. (The Frank Evison Volume), 167(8/9), 893-906, doi:.
    • (2010) Pure appl. Geophys. , vol.167 , Issue.8-9 , pp. 893-906
    • Zechar, J.D.1    Jordan, T.H.2
  • 45
    • 79953859243 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model
    • Zhuang, J., 2011. Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model, Earth Planets Space, 63, 207-216.
    • (2011) Earth Planets Space , vol.63 , pp. 207-216
    • Zhuang, J.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.