Global-scale analysis of seismic activity prior to 2004 Sumatra-Andaman mega-earthquake

Tectonophysics

Volumn 470, Issue 3-4, 2009, Pages 329-344

  Romashkova, L L ^a  

^a INSTITUTE OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION THEORY AND MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS   (Russian Federation)

Author keywords

b value; Frequency magnitude distribution; Global seismicity; Intermediate term scale; Mega earthquakes; Seismic premonitory phenomena

Indexed keywords

B-VALUE; FREQUENCY-MAGNITUDE DISTRIBUTION; GLOBAL SEISMICITY; INTERMEDIATE-TERM SCALE; MEGA-EARTHQUAKES; SEISMIC PREMONITORY PHENOMENA;

EARTHQUAKES;

DETECTION METHOD; EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE; LITHOSPHERE; LITHOSPHERIC STRUCTURE; MONITORING; SEISMICITY; SEISMOLOGY; SUMATRA EARTHQUAKE 2004;

EID: 67349181319     PISSN: 00401951     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2009.02.011     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Barenblatt G.I. Micromechanics of fracture (1993), Elsvier, TUTAM 25-51
2. Barenblatt G.I., Keilis-Borok V.I., and Monin A.S. Filtration model of earthquake sequence. Dokl. Akad. Nauk SSSR 269 4 (1983) 831-834 (in Russian)
3. Benioff V.H. Global strain accumulation and release as revealed by great earthquakes. Bull. Geol. Soc. Am. 62 (1951) 331-338
4. Bowman D.D., Ouillon G., Sammis C.G., Sornette A., and Sornette D. An observational test of the critical earthquake concept. J. Geophys. Res. 103 (1998) 24359-24372
5. Bufe C.G., and Perkins D.M. Evidence for a global seismic-moment release sequence. Bull. Seis. Soc. Am. 95 (2005) 833-843
6. Dobrovolsky I.P., Zubkov S.I., and Miachkin V.I. Estimation of the size of earthquake preparation zone. Pure Appl. Geoph. 117 5 (1979) 1025-1044
7. Ekstrom G., Dziewonski A.M., Maternovskaya N.N., and Nettles M. Global seismicity of 2003: centroid-moment tensor solutions for 1087 earthquakes. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 148 (2005) 327-351
8. Felzer K.R., Becker T.W., Abercrombie R.E., Ekstrom G., and Rice J.R. Triggering of the 1999 MW 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake by aftershocks of the 1992 MW 7.3 Landers earthquake. J. Geophys. Res. 107 B9 (2002) 2190
9. GHDB (Global Hypocenter Data Base). Global Hypocenters Data Base CD-ROM NEIC/USGS, Denver, CO, 1989 and its updates through December 2004 (1989)
10. Gutenberg B., and Richter C.F. Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena (1954), Princeton Universiy Press, Princeton, N. J.
11. Kanamori H. Energy release in great earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. 82 (1977) 2981-2987
12. Kaverina A.N., Prozorov A.G., and Lander A.V. Global creepex distribution and its relation to earthquake-source geometry and tectonic origin. Geophys. J. Int. 125 1 (1996) 249-265
13. Keilis-Borok V.I. The difference between spectrums of surface waves of earthquakes and underground explosions. Trans. of the Inst. Phys. Earth 15 (1960) (in russian)
14. Keilis-Borok V.I. The lithosphere of the Earth as a nonlinear system with implications for earthquake prediction. Rev. Geophys. 28 1 (1990) 19-34
15. Keilis-Borok V.I., and Malinovsaya L.N. One regularity in the occurrence of strong earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. 69 (1964) 3019-3024
16. Keilis-Borok V.I., and Kossobokov V.G. Premonitory activation of earthquake flow: algorithm M8. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 61 (1990) 73-83
17. In: Keilis-Borok V.I., and Soloviev A.A. (Eds). Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction (2003), Springer, Heidelberg 348 pp.
18. Knopoff L., Kagan Y., and Knopoff R. B-value for foreshocks and aftershocks in real and simulated earthquake sequences. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 72 (1982) 1663-1676
19. Kossobokov V.G. Quantitative earthquake prediction on global and regional scales. In: Ismail-Zadeh A. (Ed). Recent Geodynamics, Georisk and Sustainable Development in the Black Sea to Caspian Sea Region. American Institute of Physics Conference Proceedings vol. 825 (2006), Melville, New York 32-50
20. Kossobokov V.G., Romashkova L.L., Keilis-Borok V.I., and Healy J.H. Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: statistically significant real-time prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 111 3-4 (1999) 187-196
21. Latchman J.L., Morgan F.D.O., and Aspinall W.P. Temporal changes in the cumulative piecewise gradient of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship and the imminence of extreme events (Abstract). Seismol. Res. Lett. 76 2 (2005) 267
22. Latchman J.L., Morgan F.D.O., and Aspinall W.P. Temporal changes in the cumulative piecewise gradient of a variant of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, and the imminence of extreme events. Earth Sci. Rev. 87 (2008) 94-112
23. Meredith P.G., Main I.G., and Jones C. Temporal variations in seismicity during quasistatic and dynamic rock failure. Tectonophysics 175 (1990) 249-268
24. Mogi K. Migration of seismic activity. Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst. Univ. Tokyo 46 1 (1968) 53-74
25. Mogi K. Global variation of seismic activity. Tectonophysics 57 (1979) T43-T49
26. Mogi K. Earthquake prediction (1985), Academic Press, Tokyo
27. Molchan G.M., and Podgaetskaya V.M. Parameters of global seismicity. In: Keilis-Borok V.I. (Ed). Computational and Statistical methods of interpretation of seismological data. Comput. Seismol. vol. 6 (1972) 44-66 (in Russian)
28. Molchan G.M., and Dmitrieva O.E. Dynamics of the magnitude-frequency relation for foreshocks. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 61 (1990) 99-112
29. Narkunskaya G.S., and Shnirman M.G. An algorithm of earthquake prediction. Computational Seismology and Geodynamics vol. 1 (1994), AGU, Washington, D.D. 20-24
30. Okal E.A., and Romanowicz B.A. On the variation of b-values with earthquake size. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 87 (1994) 55-76
31. Prigogine I., and Stengers I. Order out of Chaos (1984), Bantam Books, NY
32. Press F., and Allen C. Patterns of seismic release in the southern California region. J. Geophys. Res. 100 B4 (1995) 6421-6430
33. Prozorov A.G. Changes of seismic activity connected to large earthquakes. In: Keilis-Borok V.I. (Ed). Interpretation of Data in Seismology and Neotectonics. Comput. Seismol. vol. 8 (1975) 71-82 (in Russian)
34. Prozorov A.G., and Hudson J.A. A study of the magnitude difference Ms-mb for earthquakes. Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 39 (1974) 551-554
35. Prozorov A.G., and Schreider S.Y. Real time test of the long-range aftershocks algorithm as a tool of mid-term earthquake prediction in South California. Pure Appl. Geophys. 133 N.1 (1990) 1-19
36. Rao C.R. Linear statistical inference and its applications (1966), Willey & Sons, N.Y.
37. Romanowicz B. Spatiotemporal patterns in the energy release of great earthquakes. Science 260 (1993) 1923-1926
38. Romashkova L., and Kossobokov V. Earthquake prediction based on stable clusters of alarms. Abstracts of the Contributions of the EGU 2-st General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, EGU05-A-02065 (2005)
39. Rotwain I.M., and Novikova O.V. Performance of the earthquake prediction algorithm CN in 22 regions of the world. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 111 (1999) 207-213
40. Rotwain I., Keilis-Borok V., and Botvina L. Premonitory transformation of steel fracturing and seismicity. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 101 (1997) 61-71
41. Sadovsky M.A. Long-term earthquake prediction: methodological recommendations. Inst. Phys. Earth, Moscow (1986) (in Russian)
42. Scholz C.H. The frequency-magnitude relation of microfracturing in rocks and its relation to earthquakes. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 58 N 1 (1968) 399-415
43. Scholz C.H. The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting (1990), Cambridge University Press 442 pp.
44. Shebalin P.N. Automatic duplicate identification in set of earthquake catalogues merged together. U.S. Geol. Surv. Open-File Report (1992) 92-401 Appendix II
45. Shebalin P., Zaliapin I., and Keilis-Borok V. Premonitory raise of the earthquake's correlation range: lesser antiles. PEPI 122 (2000) 241-249
46. Smith W.D. The b-value as an earthquake precursor. Nature 289 5794 (1981) 136-139
47. Sornette D., and Sammis. Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquakes: implication for earthquakes predictions. J. Phys. I France 5 (1995) 607-619
48. Sykes L.R., and Jaume S.C. Seismic activity on neighboring faults as a long-term precursor to large earthquakes in the San Francesco Bay area. Nature 348 (1990) 595-599
49. Thom R. Structural stability and morphogenesis (1975), Benjamin Reading, Massachusetts
50. Turcotte D.L., Newman W.I., and Gabrielov A. A statistical physics approach to earthquakes. Geocomplexity and the Physics if Earthquakes (2000), American Geophysical Union, Washington D.C.
51. Varnes D.J. Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity. Pure Appl. Geophys. 130 (1989) 661-686
52. Vil'kovich E.V., and Shnirman M.G. Epicenter migration waves: Examples and models. In: Keilis-Borok V.I., and Levshin A.L. (Eds). Mathematical Models of the Earth's Structure and the Earthquake Prediction. Comput. Seism. vol. 14 (1983), Allerton Pres, New York 27-36
53. Wallace R.E. Grouping and migration of surface faulting and variation in slip rates on faults in Greate Basin province. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 77 (1987) 868-876
54. Wiemer S., and Wyss M. Minimum magnitude of completeness in earth-quake, catalogs: examples from Alaska, the western United States and Japan. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 90 4 (2000) 859-869
55. Woessner J., and Wiemer S. Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues: estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 95 2 (2005) 684-698
56. Zaliapin I., Keilis-Borok V., and Axen G. Premonitory spreading of seismicity over the faults' network in southern California: precursor accord. J. Geophys. Res. 107 B10 (2002) 2221